Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

052
FXUS61 KRNK 042304
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
704 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Increased Fire Danger statement issued for Tuesday afternoon.
See fire weather section below.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday.

2) A few showers/storms possible today in the mountains/foothills
of VA/WV.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday.

A broad upper-level closed low over eastern Canada will continue
to drive cyclonic flow and repeated trough reinforcement
through the period. This pattern will bring a stretch of
unsettled weather across the area Wed-Thu. The progressive cold
front will continue to move across us by Thursday bringing
showers and thunderstorms. Although the main front moves
offshore by the weekend, the embedded shortwave troughs will
continue isolated to scattered shower activity into the
weekend. Below normal temperatures can be expected Thu-Sat.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers possible through this afternoon
in the mountains/foothills of VA/WV.

An embedded shortwave/vort max arrives this afternoon and with
some low level convergence expect a few showers to form in the
mountains. A few of the convective allowing models keep the
"best" chance over southeast WV into the Alleghany Highlands but
am allowing some potential for showers to survive the Blue
Ridge crossing with better low level convergence here and keep
pops overall in the 20-30% range.

Temperatures will be closer to normal today and Tuesday. Tuesday
looks to be the drier day of the next few.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue over the region through
Tuesday evening. Passing showers this evening over parts of
southeast WV and the Alleghany Highlands of VA have brought only
light rainfall amounts, but have since exited the region and
little to no rain is expected until Wednesday. Might see some
patchy fog at KLWB for a few hours tomorrow morning, since they
did receive some rain this afternoon, but winds may stay
elevated enough to limit fog development. Still have included in
the KLWB TAF for now.

Winds will be light out of the south and southwest between 5-10
kts, with gusts picking up on Tuesday morning reaching up to
20kts by the afternoon.

Clouds begin to increase ahead of a front approaching from the
west late in the TAF period, but ceilings will remain VFR.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub VFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday will the
arrival of a cold front, along with showers and possible
thunderstorms. Most of the precipitation should be out of the
area by the weekend, but chances for isolated showers/storms
linger until the end of the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased Fire Danger statement issued for portions of the
southern Shenandoah Valley, VA Foothills and Piedmont for
Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread drought continues over the region and with a lack of
any widespread rainfall the past several days. Strong
southwest flow increases during the day tomorrow ahead of an
approaching front from the west. Although flow from the
south/southwest usually brings a more moist airmass, dry air
aloft, along with an increasing low level jet may allow for
enhanced mixing of lower dew points to the surface by the
afternoon. Dew points falling into the 30s and daytime high
temperatures into the 70s to low 80s could result in min RH
in the 20 percent range. Sustained winds of 10 to 15mph, with
some gusts up to 25mph, are expected. A combination of low RH
and gusty southerly winds will increase fire danger across most
of the region tomorrow. Ever increasing canopy from greenup may
help limit the upper end potential, but dry underbrush is still
susceptible to rapid fire spread.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...AS/VFJ
FIRE WEATHER...AS/BMG