Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS61 KRNK 131027
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
627 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the flood watch.

12z aviation update completed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Showers/few thunderstorms to bring periods of
moderate to heavy downpours especially along/south of NC/VA
border today.

Key Message 2: Much of the area will be dry with warm/hot conditions
for mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Slow moving showers/storms to bring periods of
moderate/heavy downpours especially along/south of the VA/NC
border today.

Front to our south combined with upper shortwave to our
southwest will bring east flow at the surface and southwest flow
aloft, leading to potential slow moving/stationary
showers/storms today. Nudged the flood watch south as better
support for heavier downpours will run further south. Could trim
the northern portion of the flood watch along US 460 but will
hang on as some high-res models depict potential for a band of
heavier rain to extend from north of Danville toward Roanoke
today.

Does look like upper ridge pushing into the Midwest/Great Lakes
will send the upper low over the deep south by Monday night,
with shower decreasing from north to south into Tuesday.

With most of the area in cloud cover this morning, not seeing
any severe threat, just flooding.

Thanks to plenty of cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures on
Monday will likely be similar or slightly cooler than those
experienced today. The clouds will keep highs in the 60s to
lower 70s from the NC mountains/foothills into the New River
Valley. Could see enough sunshine to have lower 80s across the
central VA Piedmont west to Lexington, VA.


Key Message 2: Much of the area will be dry with warm/hot conditions
for mid-week.

High pressure will keep much of the region dry during the middle
part of the week. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially across the southern and western portions of the area.
These regions will be farthest away from the center of the high, and
by Thursday the next approaching weather system will be over parts
of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures are expected to
trend milder each day, so that by Thursday, values about five to ten
degrees above normal will be common across the area. When
considering humidity as well, and we will be looking at much of the
Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina experiencing late afternoon
heat index values around or a little over 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Poor flying conditions across the area with showers/heavy at
times possibly impacting LYH/ROA/BCB/BLF and DAN this morning,
then should start to see activity shift south this afternoon
but leaving VCSH in. Cigs/vsbys will likely be MVFR to LIFR at
times through the morning with higher confidence on IFR or
worse.

Cigs finally return to VFR late Monday afternoon into Monday
evening as high pressure slowly builds in from the north, ending
the rain chances.

Tonight, with low level moisture amped up, expect some
stratus/fog issues at times, especially in the typical spots
like LWB/BCB and perhaps BLF.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Expect mainly VFR through the week outside any fog late at
night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ007-009>017-022-
     032>034-043>046-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/JCB/WP
AVIATION...DS/JCB/WP