Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS61 KRNK 071050
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes,

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash
flooding across the Piedmont.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and flash
flooding across the Piedmont.

Starting the day with residual pockets of shower activity lingering
across the Piedmont, leftovers from storms occurring earlier in
the night. This activity is expected to fade altogether by
around 5 AM. May see pockets of fog develop, but believe that
will be limited in coverage by residual clouds across the
region.

The lower Mid-Atlantic remains situated to the south of a stationary
front that stretches from the upper Ohio River Valley through
the DelMarVA, with deep moisture observed pooling south of the
boundary as indicated by dewpoint temperatures currently in the
upper 60s to the low 70s. High confidence exists that an upper
level disturbance advancing across the lower Mid-Atlantic this
afternoon and evening will push the boundary southward across
the Piedmont as a back-door cold front, triggering another round
of showers and storms. Any storms that develop today will be
capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater. However, given precipitable water values will increase
to 2+ inches this afternoon in an environment where surface-
based CAPEs will range from 1,500 to 2,000 J/Kg, feel the larger
concern will be the potential for storms to produce rainfall
rates in excess of 3 inches per hour and/or pass repeatedly
across the same locations. Have therefore issued a Flood Watch
for Flash Flooding for much of the Piedmont of Virginia from 3
PM through midnight. However, if the front stalls, the threat
for heavy rain may extend as late as 3 AM on Wednesday.


Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast through the beginning of next week.

Weather model guidance remains in strong agreement that the
front will advance southward into the Carolinas on Wednesday
before becoming diffuse and fading away. This will leave deep
moisture in place across much of the Mid-Atlantic through the
remainder of the workweek that will support daytime-heating
driven showers and thunderstorms, though any that develop on
Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to rather widely scattered
and disorganized. A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes
early Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and
storms for Friday and Saturday, with the front passing south of
the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures through
the end of the week are expected to remain near normal for
approaching the middle of July, and widespread excessive heat is
not forecasted to occur.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Storms have dissipated and the main concern this morning has been
patchy fog, which in many spots has already started to mix out.
This trend will continue through 13Z given strong daytime heating.

Scattered showers and storms will redevelop after 17Z to the
east of a HSP to BCB line. Greatest coverage of storms will be
from 20Z today through around 01Z Wednesday, mainly impacting
ROA, LYH and DAN. Currently not enough confidence in
thunderstorm coverage further west to make mention in the TAFS
for BLF, BCB and LWB. Storms may linger over airports for up to
2 hours, and will be capable of gusts in excess of 40kts, and
heavy downpours that will lower visibilities to less than 1/4 SM
in heavy rain. Outside of thunderstorms, expect mainly VFR
conditions with winds less than 10kts. Winds will veer from
westerly this afternoon to northeasterly for LYH, ROA and DAN
during the evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon and evening through the remainder of this week. Heavy
downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible
in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during
the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off
quickly after 13Z daily.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for VAZ024-034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RNK
AVIATION...RNK