Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS61 KRNK 211932
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
332 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Sunday continues to trend warmer ahead of an approaching
frontal system on Monday.

A series of fronts to impact the region through next week. Each
front featuring a warming trend ahead of it, then a subsequent
cool down behind the front. Rain possible with each frontal
passage.

There is an increased fire potential for Monday for areas that
do not receive rain Sunday night and Monday morning. Gusty
post- frontal winds, RH values dropping to 15 to 25%, and warm
temperatures may increase the fire danger, specifically for the
Piedmont of VA and NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record warmth on Sunday.

2) The next chances of showers should come during Sunday
night into Monday morning and also later in the week. Increasing
fire potential Monday afternoon for the Piedmont.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record warmth on Sunday.

Flow will increase from the southwest through Sunday as a weak
upper wave moving across the northern states eventually
amplifies by early Monday. This will result in a weak surface
low tracking into New England and a resultant frontal boundary
draped from Pennsylvania to Missouri that will begin to drop
south towards our area. Strong southwest flow warm air
advection and compressional warming will occur ahead of the
front. This will result in well above normal temperatures for
Sunday...with the potential of reaching or breaking records at a
few locations. Mid 80s possible east of the mountains with
widespread upper 70s to lower 80s for the mountains.


Station Record Hi Max Forecast MaxT
Roanoke 84 in 1938          86
Lynchburg 90 in 1907          85
Danville    88 in 1968           87
Bluefield   81 in 2012           76
Blacksburg  85 in 1907           80



KEY MESSAGE 2: The next chances of showers should come during
Sunday night into Monday and also later in the week. Increasing
fire potential Monday for the Piedmont.

A cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest Sunday
night, crossing the mountains around sunrise before pushing into
North Carolina by late Monday morning. The front will be interacting
with a relatively dry airmass and winds are expected to shift
westerly very quickly. This transition will likely trigger scattered
showers across the western mountains during the morning hours,
though these will fade as the system nears the Blue Ridge, leaving
areas to the east with little to no measurable rain. This lack of
precipitation in the Piedmont, combined with downsloping winds and
breezy, gusty conditions, will keep fuel moisture levels low and
lead to high fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon.

The previously forecast Wednesday front has been removed from the
outlook, with models now centering on a weak shortwave moving across
the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Guidance remains consistent
regarding a stronger cold front on Friday, though recent runs
suggest it will arrive from the north within a zonal flow. This
shift in trajectory is expected to result in a slow-moving boundary
that may stall over the region Friday into Friday night before
finally clearing into North Carolina on Saturday. Rainfall totals
with both the early-week and late-week systems are currently
projected to remain light, generally between a tenth and two-tenths
of an inch.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected for the 24hr TAF period. Mainly seeing some high
deck cirrus above 10kft this afternoon. Should see it clear
overnight leading to clear skies. Perhaps some afternoon CU
along the southern Blue Ridge in Virginia and NW North Carolina.

Winds increase on Sunday from the southwest. Gusts will increase
and become more frequent by midday, with some gusts potentially
exceeding 20kts at the higher elevations.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal system will drop in from the north Sunday night into
Monday, bringing another chance for rain and sub-VFR conditions
mainly to the mountains. Expect gusty NW winds Monday behind the
front, with gusts between 20-30 kts throughout the area. Drier
weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing fire potential Monday for the Piedmont of Virginia
and North Carolina...

As a cold front exits the region Sunday evening, gusty
northwest winds will arrive. In general, gusts up to 35 mph are
possible for Sunday night and Monday along the higher
elevations. Fire weather concerns may arise by Monday afternoon
if the downsloping wind coincides with dry fuels that do not
receive precipitation with the front Sunday night into Monday
morning. The wind should decrease by Monday night as high
pressure returns. We are currently outlooked by SPC for fire
danger on Monday with a 40% critical probability outline over
the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/SH