Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

677
FXUS61 KRNK 021058
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
658 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Backdoor surface front has entered NoVA and is expected to stall.
We remain on the warm side of the front. No change to forecast
which reflects warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures through Saturday with daily
chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

2. Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool down early next
week,temperatures returning to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures through Saturday with daily
chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure surface and aloft will remain over the western
Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, maintaining warm south to
southwesterly flow over much of the southeastern US.
Temperatures are expected to average 15 to 20 degrees above the
seasonal norm.

Backdoor front over NoVA this morning will be focus for showers
and thunderstorms today, mainly along and north of I-64. Can`t
rule out some isolated showers elsewhere but overall coverage is
expected to be less compared to yesterday...flow aloft pushing
any activity that forms this afternoon to the northeast and out
of the CWA. With cold temps aloft, some of the stronger storm
cores may have some small hail, but shear profiles are weaker
today, suggesting minimal threat for severe. Similar set-up is
expected Friday with isolated coverage, then ramping up
Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.


KEY MESSAGE 2:  Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool
down early next week,temperatures returning to normal.

A change in the weather pattern is in store late in the weekend
into early next week. A strong cold front will cross the area
Sunday morning, associated with an airmass change per upper
trough digging south from Canada and passing across the Great
Lakes and into the eastern CONUS. Cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the forecast area from the northwest, bringing cooler
temperatures, though closer to seasonal normals, maybe even
below normal by the middle of next week. There is over a 50%
chance probability for over 0.5" of precipitation along and west
of the Blue Ridge associated with the front, and over a 90%
chance for a 0.25" of rain, after which we dry out again.

With the drier air coming in, should see several days of
relative humidities in the 20% to 30% range. Winds gusting up to
20 mph both Monday and Tuesday should also aid in the drying
process, so by mid-week conditions favorable for prescribed
burning should exist.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected today. Any ground fog this
morning should dissipate quickly. It appears to be shallow
ground fog. After 13Z expect sct-bkn cu development with a few
afternoon showers, but confidence in their formation and
expected low areal coverage is keeping them from being
represented in the TAFs at this time. If they were to form, most
likely that LYH/ROA/BCB would see a shower or storm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms may affect mainly the mountain TAF sites
generally between 18 and 03Z again Friday with sub-VFR
conditions. Conditions should return to VFR once convection ends
each night. By the weekend however, coverage of showers/storms
increases and could result in MVFR or lower conditions at times.
The cold front should move through Sunday night, coincident
with very gusty NW winds.

Monday should return to VFR except potential sub-VFR cigs linger
in the WV mtns.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM/VFJ