Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KRNK 171757
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
157 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast updated per recent guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thicker smoke mainly east of the Blue Ridge is
causing air quality issues and enhanced heat continues in the
Piedmont.

2) Passage of an upper level disturbance overtop an approaching
cold front will support scattered strong to severe storms on
Saturday.

3) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will persist from Sunday into the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thicker smoke mainly east of the Blue Ridge is
causing air quality issues and enhanced heat continues in the
Piedmont.

The Canadian wildfire smoke has made its way to the surface and
is causing air quality issues and reduced visibility mainly east
of the Blue Ridge today. It is actually acting like a wedge
front though it is anything but cold air damming. The solar
sheltering from the smoke/haze is suppressing the daytime cu
field and likely keeping temps a bit lower as well though the
Piedmont may still have dangerous heat indices in the low 100s
this afternoon into early evening. Please use caution for both
the smoke and heat if you are outdoors!

KEY MESSAGE 2...Passage of an upper level disturbance overtop
an approaching cold front will support scattered strong to
severe storms on Saturday.

An upper level shortwave trough and attendant sfc front will
approach the CWA Saturday allowing for increased dynamical
forcing. This combined with ample instability of near 2000 J/kg
will allow for an increased chance for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
periods. Shear parameters continue to not be impressive but with
the increased energy and lift some storms could be strong to
severe with damaging downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall
as the primary threats. SPC continues to have us outlooked for a
Slight Risk in the eastern majority of the CWA and a Marginal
Risk elsewhere.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms will persist from Sunday into the middle of
next week.

The aforementioned front could stall across the southern
majority of the area on Sunday as the main upper steering energy
breaks away to the east. This will allow for another round of
possible strong to severe convection with again a damaging wind
threat and perhaps an even greater flash flooding threat if
storms train along/near the boundary. Enhanced moisture hangs
around into midweek before the next upper disturbance and
frontal system is progged to traverse the area on Wednesday,
allowing for daily shower/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some MVFR vsbys for ROA, LYH, and DAN today into tonight due to
Canadian wildfire smoke. This should clear out Saturday as a
disturbance and frontal system approach the area and increase
shower and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon. Some storms
could be strong to severe with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall/reduced vsbys. Otherwise some fog/BR could reduce
vsbys/cigs near LWB and BCB Saturday morning. Winds for most
sites (other than LWB and BLF) should have some east component
this afternoon generally 7 kts or less then mostly calm
overnight with increased winds out of the SW generally 7-10 kts
for Saturday.

OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Shower and storms chances will become scattered in coverage
across the lower Mid-Atlantic Saturday into early next week,
with potential sub-MVFR or conditions. Mountain valley fog/low
stratus will also be possible each morning. A westerly wind with
speeds between 6 and 12 kts will develop on Saturday and
Sunday, with occasional gusts as high as 25 kts.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ019-020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Air Quality Alert until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/NF