Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

827
FXUS61 KRNK 070716
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
316 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Rain tapering off in the north by noon, and pushing south of the
area later this afternoon/evening.

Patchy frost possible for parts of the colder mountains and
valleys Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Slow-moving system shifts south out of the area by this
evening, bringing beneficial rain. Possibly some frost for parts
of the mountains Friday morning.

2) A cold front will bring the next good opportunity for showers
and thunderstorms during Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Slow-moving system shifts south out of the area
by this evening, bringing beneficial rain today. Possibly some
frost for parts of the mountains Friday morning.

Several pieces of shortwave energy will push across the area
through this evening with a frontal passage aiding in low
level convergence. The first wave of widespread rainfall has
exited the area to the east. The frontal boundary remains
draped across the area today and slowly slides southeast through
the day. We should see another broad area of rain develop
around 4-6 AM this morning and slowly sink south during the day.
After 10 AM, most of the rain will be concentrated south of
Highway 460, but we will continue to see light rain showers at
times even over the mountains. Could see a few lightning strikes
later today with the more concentrated mid level vorticity
coming across with a little MLCAPE in tow. We are not expecting
any severe thunderstorm or flooding issues with this rain
definitely helping the drought. Precip tapers off/sinks south
this evening.

Rainfall totals will vary across the region, with parts of the
Greenbrier Valley and the Shenandoah Valley receiving up to two-
tenths of an inch, and areas along and south of Highway 460
seeing between a third of an inch to an inch through this
evening. Any thunderstorms or training of heavier showers could
bring locally 2 inch amounts.

Plenty of cloud cover today will keep temperatures in the 50s
north to 60s south today. Tonight, clear skies, and light
winds may result in some patchy frost for the coldest spots
from Smyth County to Tazewell to Hot Springs north. Temperatures
should only drop as low as the mid 30s, and dew points are
marginal for frost, so we have opted to let the day shift take
another look before issuing a frost advisory for those areas.

High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather temperatures
rebounding a little into the 60s to low 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring the next good
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms during Sunday into
Monday.

After high pressure heads offshore by Saturday morning, two weak
disturbances should approach the eastern United States. One will
pass to the north across Pennsylvania, while the other should
cross Georgia and South Carolina. This situation will keep most
of the Appalachian Mountains dry on Saturday with perhaps a
stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible in southeast
West Virginia. However, these disturbances should advect more
moisture into the atmosphere by Sunday when a potent cold front
approaches the Ohio River Valley. Prefrontal activity tapping
into Gulf moisture and increasing instability as afternoon
temperatures reach the lower 70s to the lower 80s will bring a
more noteworthy chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
entire Mid-Atlantic region.

Once the convection wanes on Sunday night, showers should linger
into Monday as the frontal passage occurs. Conditions could turn
breezy by Monday evening as a northwest wind accelerates with
gusts up to 30 mph along the higher elevations. High pressure
should bring cooler and drier on Tuesday. A weaker cold front
may arrive by late Tuesday night into Wednesday to provide
another chance of showers and thunderstorms, but considerably
less moisture seems available as this front does not tap into
Gulf moisture. Thus, the next good opportunity for rainfall to
alleviate the ongoing drought concerns will be the
aforementioned cold front from Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Widespread low VFR to MVFR conditions are in progress across
the area in rain and fog; with Bluefield currently in LIFR
conditions. Could see lower conditions today with another broad
area of rain develop around 4-6 AM this morning and slowly
sinking south during the day. After 10 AM, most of the rain
will be concentrated south of Highway 460, but we will continue
to see light rain showers and a little fog at times even over
the mountains. Could see a few lightning strikes later today but
this will be mostly confined to DAN. Showers shift southeast
and out of the Piedmont later this afternoon. We will see a slow
improvement in ceilings with VFR becoming widespread after 2
PM. Fog should dissipate by noon at latest.

We should scatter out in mid and high clouds this evening.
Could be some residual moisture for a little fog and/or frost
around BLF and LWB Friday morning, otherwise VFR.

Winds will turn more north/northwesterly in the mountains today
and northeast to easterly for the Piedmont by this afternoon.
Speeds will generally by 8 to 12 knots or so, but gusts up to 20
knots are possible. Expect mostly calm winds overnight.

Forecast confidence is moderate.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions persist Friday and Saturday. On Sunday into
Monday increasing moisture and another frontal passage brings
additional shower/storm chances and possibly sub-VFR conditions.

Winds become gusty and southwesterly by Friday. By Saturday
westerly winds will exhibit gusts to 25 kts. Winds will be
light and variable Sunday morning becoming WSW and gusty to 20
kts Sunday afternoon. Monday looks especially gusty with NW
winds developing behind a frontal passage with gusts to 25 kts
or more at times.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...SH