Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS61 KRNK 030037
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
837 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Today`s heat advisory has expired. Going to have another heat
advisory for the VA Piedmont into Caswell County NC for Thursday.

Similar to Wednesday, Strong to severe storms possible east of
the mountains and mainly north of Highway 460 Thursday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat Advisory Thursday.

2) Multiple chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through this
weekend. Some strong/severe especially Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat Advisory Thursday for mainly the piedmont.

Temperatures are going to stay well above normal for early
September again Thursday. The only thing Thursday that could
keep it from getting as hot as today would be any convective
blowoff from upstream deep convection but overall the model
upper winds are going to be more out of the west while the
storms move from north-northwest to the south-southeast across
northern VA tomorrow.

Despite some areas not reaching quite 105, given its September
and with outdoor/school activities feel keep the heat advisory
is warranted.

Things start to trend down in temps with increasing chances for
showers/storms into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday through this weekend. Some strong/severe especially
Friday.

Cannot rule out a few storms around the Buckingham to South
Boston area this evening but models overall take the better
cluster of storms over to the east toward the coast.

Should see a slight uptick in chances tomorrow though the upper
ridge still holds on somewhat but heights slightly fall across
VA.

At least widely scattered storms of strong/severe variety are
possible...along/north of I-64 and east of the Blue Ridge. But
similar to Wednesday, outflow may allow storms to propagate
farther south with potential to reach highway 460 before loss of
daytime heating.

From SPC - Despite weakening mid-level lapse rates with
eastward extent, daytime heating combined with dewpoints largely
in the low/mid 70s will contribute to moderate to strong
instability by afternoon along and south of the effective
surface front with MLCAPE approaching 2500-3500 J/kg. The
frontal zone will coincide with a belt of 40-45 kt west-
northwest mid-level flow, yielding sufficient vertical shear for
supercells and organized line segments and/or bowing
structures. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts,
though isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with any
supercells that may evolve.

Appears this may be more likely east and north of our area
especially hail chances given warmer ridge. Still damaging winds
are a concern given the available energy from the heat.

The cold front`s passage will provide another round of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday into Sunday, though thunder chances
should drop with more stable air moving in behind the front.


We should dry out early next week but heat builds again by
middle of next week with another 5h ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated deep convection vcnty of ROA/LYH until 02Z otherwise
looking at mainly clear skies overnight with period of
mountain valley fog vcnty of LWB where vsby as low as 1/4sm
possible between 06-14Z.

Another opportunity for afternoon and evening thunderstorms is
possible mainly north of LWB-ROA-LYH line with impacts to flight
routes north and east of the Blacksburg/Roanoke Service area.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front backdoors in Friday into the weekend with chances
for showers/storms. Aside from sub-VFR from the storms should be
VFR. A potential exists for sub-VFR Sunday with northeast flow,
then VFR Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ034-035-
     044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/PM/WP
AVIATION...PM