Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

179
FXUS61 KRNK 271057
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
657 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast updated.

Continued forecast for rain and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Cold temperatures may approach freezing in parts of mountains
Thursday night/Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1:

There will be a few opportunities for precipitation this week as
we transition to a more active weather pattern. Higher
confidence in a Tuesday/Wednesday event providing some
meaningful rainfall, and low confidence in precipitation later
in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Temperatures in the 30s and near freezing will be possible
Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: There will be a few opportunities for
precipitation this week as we transition to a more active
weather pattern. Higher confidence in a Tuesday/Wednesday event
providing some meaningful rainfall, and low confidence in
precipitation later in the week.

Monday will remain dry under high pressure and mid-level
ridging. By Tuesday, a cold front dangling from a center of low
pressure in the northern Great Lakes will cross the area.
Dynamics and instability will be weak, so not expecting strong
or damaging storms to form for Tuesday, but thunderstorms could
form in the afternoon. For Wednesday, a trough will help
intensify a surface low approaching from the Mid-South, which
will move through the southern OH Valley. The upper level
support will be much greater for our region with this system, so
widespread rainfall is expected again on Wednesday, with
stronger convection and storms as well. A Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms has been issued for almost the entire
forecast area on Wednesday.

Combined rainfall totals for Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast
to be mostly between 0.5-1", with highest amounts in the
mountains where orographics will enhance rain intensity
Tuesday. This will be a beneficial rain in our current drought
situation, but won`t be the end of the drought.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures in the 30s and near freezing will be
possible Thursday and Friday nights.

A body of colder air will advect into our area late in the week
due to a southward descending trough. This will drop
temperatures close to freezing in portions of the mountains of
WV and western VA. Given the growing season has begun and we
will have recently received the first decent rainfall of April,
this cold air is something to keep an eye on for those with
agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There remain some low clouds west of the Blue Ridge, holding
those areas in MVFR conditions. These will quickly lift as an
inversion holding the clouds breaks with morning warming. For
the remainder of the 24 hour period, expect light east to
southeast winds and VFR conditions with mid to high clouds.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Gusty southeasterly winds continue through Monday night and into
Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area from the west, bringing
scattered showers/storms and some sub-VFR conditions to the
mountains, with lower rain chances for the Piedmont. By Wednesday,
the cold front moves into the area, bringing showers/storms and
likely sub-VFR to all terminals. Behind the front Wednesday night,
strong northwest winds will gust around 20-25 knots, lasting into
Thursday, causing a few light upslope rain showers, mainly affecting
BLF/LWB. VFR then returns for all terminals late Thursday into
Friday before another chance of rain arrives for this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP
AVIATION...JCB/VFJ