Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

530
FXUS61 KRNK 110144
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
944 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Monday looks wet and cool. QPF continues to trend up.

Frost potential in the mountains Tuesday morning?

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few chances for rain this week, Monday and again midweek.


2. Frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning. Near to
just below normal temperatures, warming up by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A couple of opportunities remain for rain this
week.

Cold front will move across the forecast area overnight with a
surge of north-northeast wind bringing the front into the area
form the northeast quicker than it will across the mountains.
Look for barrier jet to form lee of the mountains with places
like Lynchburg to Danville getting a surge of gusty northeast
winds after midnight tonight and continuing through Monday
morning...gusts up to 20 mph. Initially the front will be dry,
but then become the focus for a period of over-running Monday
morning with rain overspreading the mountains toward daybreak
and then across the remainder of the CWA during the day. Rain
amounts from the latest 00Z HRRR suggest 0.40 to 0.80 across
the New River Valley and surrounding areas with a tenth to as
much as a third of an inch across the piedmont. Will take a look
at some of the other models as they become available this
evening, but it is looking like Monday is going to be wet and
cool.

Temperature forecast reflects a cooler than model blend Monday
given cloud cover and northerly component to the wind behind the
front, with 50s in the higher ridges to lower to mid 60s
elsewhere. May reach the upper 60s in the NC Piedmont.

The rain is expected to come to an end for the Piedmont by dusk
Monday evening as the front moves away from the area. Another
front approaches the area by the middle of the week to bring
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms, as a
surface low moves into the Great Lakes region. Initial rainfall
amounts look to be light again for this system, but could be
locally heavier in thunderstorms. Again, this rain will be
beneficial for the area, but just a drop in the bucket in
relation to helping the drought conditions.

High pressure returns to the area by the end of the week,
promoting dry weather Thursday and Friday. Low chances for
mountain showers/storms over the weekend, with a weak shortwave
moving in from the west, but doesn`t look like widespread
coverage at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning.
Near to just below normal temperatures, warming up by next
weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the front Monday, with a colder
airmass moving into the region. Clearer skies overnight and light to
calms winds will mean a good set up for radiational cooling, and
could see some frost in the mountains, mainly the Greenbrier
Valley and other sheltered mountain valleys Tuesday morning.
Will mention potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and may
need a frost advisory if trends continue to show lows in the
lower to mid 30s and light winds late Monday night.


Behind the next frontal passage, Thursday will have highs in
the upper 50s in the higher elevations, mid 60s elsewhere in the
mountains, and low 70s for the east. After that, warming
temperatures are expected, rising to near to above normal by the
weekend, with high pressure returning the region and some weak
500mb ridging developing.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through 08Z/4AM, then trending lower toward daybreak
Monday. Winds will also increase from the north and northeast.

A cold front will cross the area overnight bringing a wind shift
to the northeast. A low level barrier jet may form just east of
the Blue Ridge. This will result in moderate gusts from the
northeast at LYH and DAN...gusts 15 to 20kts.

A period of overrunning is expected along the front Monday
resulting in numerous to widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Visibility will be impacted by the rain. Cloud
bases will also lower with time, with MFVR cigs expected Monday.

In general, expecting showers and sub-VFR cigs/vsbys reaching
BLF/LWB in the 07-09z time frame, then BCB/ROA by 08-11z, and
less coverage east but thinking at least high end MVFR cigs at
LYH/DAN for several hours during the day Monday. Ceilings in
the mountains are expected to drop to under 1kft at times
especially BLF in the 09-15z time frame then rise back to MVFR
to VFR by 21z Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions look to return for Tuesday. Another front
arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday morning bringing
showers and potential for sub-VFR conditions for all area
terminals. High pressure returns Friday with VFR outside any fog
potential Friday morning in the valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/PM/WP
AVIATION...PM