Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXUS61 KRNK 252341
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
741 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast has been updated.

Expect scattered storms Friday and especially Saturday, with
less coverage next week.

Still looking hot for next week, especially by Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potentially dangerous heat for early July, briefly
interrupted by a backdoor cold front.

2) The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will take place
for Friday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Potentially dangerous heat for early July,
briefly interrupted by a backdoor cold front.

Starting Sunday, but especially on into next week a 5h heat dome
will build over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the MS Valley,
edging eastward by midweek. This is going to bring temperatures
well into the 90s for some. Probabilities of greater than 95
degrees for highs per ensembles is 50-60 percent for the
Piedmont next Wednesday. However, the National Blend of Models
continues to advertise triple digit highs at Roanoke and
portions of the Piedmont. Given the lack of a
westerly/northwesterly downslope component, not really seeing
this, so leaning more toward a blend of the ensembles.

Still with dewpoints in the 60s, apparent temperatures will
reach 100 to 105 in the Piedmont and in the 90s west.

How long will this heat last? Ensembles have the heat ridge
lingering into the end of next week, then it retrogrades west,
with a trough setting up along the east coast.



KEY MESSAGE 2: The next chance of showers and thunderstorms
will take place for Friday through the upcoming weekend.

High pressure should shift a bit east by Friday as a front
approaches the eastern Ohio Valley. Some moisture advection, a
couple vorticity maxes and orographics should be enough to
trigger a few storms Friday afternoon, with better probabilities
along the southern Blue Ridge.

As the front backdoors into the area this weekend, storm
coverage should be greater. Depending on how far south this
front moves will determine who gets more coverage as upper
pattern shows variability in shortwave/vort tracks. Not until
Sunday will the flow turn more northwest, and could potentially
set up an environment conducive for MCS tracks from the Midwest
to the southern/central Appalachians. At the moment, Saturday
has the higher probability of storms. A few of these could be
strong to severe thanks to moderate to strong instability along
and south of the frontal zone. Forecast soundings show weak
shear across this zone, but at least moderately steep mid-level
lapse rates and moderate instability may support some damaging
winds Saturday afternoon/evening.

PWATs should be ramping up, so if thunderstorms train along the
west-east front, not out of the question to have localized
flooding. For most, we need the rain as we remain in a severe
drought for most of the area, except extreme drought conditions
remain the Piedmont and portions of the NC foothills/mountains.

Building ridging next week will limit showers and thunderstorms,
but we still may see a few bubble up in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue overnight into Friday as a frontal
system slowly makes its approach to the Appalachians. Only real
change to occur is an expansion of high level clouds and the
possibility of some brief early morning fog at KLWB. Confidence in
the fog, however, is not high given cloud cover and relatively dry
conditions. Some models picked up some isolated upslope based rain
overnight but overall chances of rain are very low for each airport.
Friday afternoon has a chance of scattered thunderstorms for all
terminals as the front moves closer but it will be hit or miss on
which airports get rain and which do not. In summary, VFR conditions
until the storms begin Friday afternoon with the exception of KLWB
if there is fog.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Saturday is the next best chance of rain and thunderstorms for the
whole region. Showers and lowering clouds will likely result in
degraded flight conditions for all terminals. Showers are still
possible on Sunday as the cold front remains in the vicinity and
possibly moves in as a back door front by Monday. By Tuesday, higher
pressure should return and VFR will likely return to all
terminals.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...CG