Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

600
FXUS61 KRNK 211102
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
702 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
morning aviation update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warmer air will return today, making for a warming trend
that will persist into the end of the workweek. Arrival of a
cold front during the weekend will bring scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms to the lower Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer air will return today, making for a
warming trend that will persist into the end of the workweek.
Arrival of a cold front during the weekend will bring scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms to the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Upper level ridging will intensify through the remainder of the
workweek, making for a gradual warming trend that will take
high temperatures this afternoon from near-normal for the 2nd
half of April to summer-like during Thursday and Friday.

A cold front near the Great Lakes region will sink southward to
northern Virginia on Wednesday evening, bringing a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of Route 460
on Wednesday afternoon/evening before the front returns
northward during early Thursday. Another chance for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will take place on Saturday as
the cold front advances southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic.
Rainfall amounts through the weekend are not forecast to be
impressive for most, though localized totals approaching an
inch are possible where stronger thunderstorms occur. Overall,
rainfall totals through the 28th are not forecast to bring much,
if any, relief from the existing drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are forecasted for all terminals through
the 21/12Z TAF period. Winds will remain near calm through this
morning, with gusts increasing into the 10kt to 15kt range from
the south-southwest during early afternoon. Speeds will return
to near calm during early evening through the remainder of the
night, setting up a potential for localized windshear conditions
across the mountains as speeds increase to nearly 40kts within
2kft of the surface. Skies will start the day mostly clear,
becoming a mixture of scattered mid and high-level clouds toward
sunset.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Anticipate isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front enters northern Virginia. The best
chance of impacts will be at LWB, with lowering ceilings,
possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Tranquil and mainly
VFR conditions will then return for Thursday into Friday
afternoon, when another cold front will enter the Mid-Atlantic
region. This will bring the potential for sub-VFR ceilings and
scattered rounds of shower activity with localized embedded
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect another dry day for today under abundant sunshine, with
afternoon temperatures warming to near-normal for the second
half of April. With high pressure passing overhead this morning,
winds will shift from the southwest today, with gusts during
the afternoon increasing into the 12 mph to 20 mph range. With
lower wind speeds today compared to those of Monday, do not see
the need for a Fire Danger Statement, however minimum relative
humidity this afternoon will range from 15 to 22 percent across
much of the lower Mid-Atlantic, allowing fuels to remain dry and
readily available to carry fire.

As a cold front approaches from the north on Wednesday, winds
will shift from the west, with speeds during the afternoon
increasing into the 20 mph to 30 mph range, with ridgetop gusts
reaching to 35 mph.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
FIRE WEATHER...NF