Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

568
FXUS61 KRNK 080723
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast, with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances continuing through next week.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Daily showers and thunderstorms likely to
continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Daily showers and thunderstorms likely to
continue into next week.

Though repetitive, the pattern of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms is likely to continue into next week. Southwesterly
winds from the Bermuda High will keep conditions warm and moist and
orographic based storms will return today. The flash flood risk will
also be extending its stay as PWAT values of 1.75-2.00" will support
high rainfall rates into today and possibly tomorrow (Sunday). The
Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
along and west of the Blue Ridge for today as well as a Marginal
Risk for the North Carolina counties and Grayson Highland area. MRMS
has Soil Moisture at around 60-80% for locations that have had
previous flash flooding, particularly in Carroll, Patrick, Surry,
and Western Greenbrier Counties. The threshold for flooding for
these areas is very low so these will be areas of concern for
today`s thunderstorm activity.

A large cutoff low over Canada will have several troughs and waves
move around it, with some pieces intersecting our forecast area
next week. This weather pattern will also assist in
guaranteeing diurnal thunderstorm activity. There are few
features that are worth of note. One is a signal of severe
weather for the middle of next week. While model guidance
struggles on the timing, a decent shortwave and low level jet is
projected to move across the area as a low level surface high
pressure system over Bermuda is forecast to move eastward.
While low and mid level winds will be more
westerly/northwesterly, wind gusts may reach up to 45 mph
against the mountains and shear may be introduced to provide
storm organization. While CAPE will remain plentiful thanks to
the previously supplied warm and moist air from the south, the
lapse rates will need to increase if there is to be any
confidence in severe weather development. This event is still
several days away so this will be monitored in future forecasts.
Another system of note is a small but potent shortwave that
forms over the Ozarks this afternoon. Despite the temporal
proximity to this event, model guidance has specific differences
in its evolution. This disturbance looks to stall and attempt
to break off from the main flow before weakening and sending
some attenuated vorticity to the region by Sunday afternoon. The
most likely impact from this system is a source of lift for
storm development but it is worth noting due to the model
discrepancies and the small risk of the wave completely
detaching itself and having downstream effects on next week`s
forecast. Finally, the large ridge over the southwestern CONUS
will weaken and move southeastward over Texas towards the end of
next week. Its position will transport shortwave ridge riders
to our area and continue the daily precipitation chances going.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Early morning fog is likely at KROA, KLWB, and KBCB before sunrise.
KLWB, unsurprisingly, may have the worst conditions with
visibilities as low as one mile and cloud ceilings below 1000
feet. The fog will evaporate after sunrise. Another round of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms is possible today. These
storms will be scattered in nature, but may affect KROA, KBLF,
KLWB, and KBCB the most. Model guidance suggests thunderstorm
activity will wane by sunset unlike previous days where storms
continued well after midnight. Otherwise, winds will be mostly
from the southwest between 5-10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The daily thunderstorm activity will likely continue into next week
as well as overnight patchy fog. All terminals are at risk of sub-
VFR conditions thanks to the storms but it will still be hit or miss
on which airport receives rain and lower visibilities/ceilings as a
result. Low level winds become more northwesterly by the middle of
next week and with some jet streaks possibly swinging by and
sending strong wind gusts and wind shear.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas near
the Blue Ridge and westward today, then for parts of the
western mountains of NC and VA Sunday. Repeated chances of
showers and thunderstorms amidst a moist air mass will persist
the remainder of this week. Not a lot of confidence in the
details for any particular location, but mountains will
encourage training storms.

PWAT values are expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range.
High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall
rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban areas and
along mountainous terrain will be particularly susceptible to
flash flooding, especially if storms repeatedly train over the
same locations.

Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across
the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits
across the Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
HYDROLOGY...SH/CG