Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS61 KRNK 141733
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
133 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Almost completely dry through Tuesday, chance for
showers/storms increases Wednesday onward.

Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Almost completely dry through Tuesday, chance for
showers/storms increases Wednesday onward.

High pressure will support tranquil weather conditions, with no
real chances for rainfall, through early next week. A weak
disturbance in the near zonal flow aloft may bring a few
sprinkles to the Greenbrier Valley Saturday afternoon and
evening as a short wave crosses the mountains, but more than
likely we will just see an increase in clouds. At that point the
flow becomes very meridional, with strong ridging developing
aloft Sunday through Tuesday. A sprawling low pressure center
will occupy the central U.S. early next week, and will move
slowly east towards the Mid Atlantic mid week. Ahead of the
system moisture will be gradually building, so towards Wednesday
we will see showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the
surface boundary. This boundary sinks south by Thursday, and
this is when we will have our best shot for widespread
precipitation. It is possible this timing may be off, with the
frontal passage actually occurring sometime next Friday, and we
will continue to refine this forecast as the event nears. At
this time only weak multicell storms are expected due to a lack
of upper level support.


Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot
temperatures.

The crisp, unseasonable chill currently lingering in the air
will soon become a memory as a significant atmospheric shift
takes hold. Starting this Saturday, the cool breeze will
retreat, replaced by a steady warming trend that will transform
the region. An expansive upper-level ridge currently positioned
off the Southeast coast will begin to build northward, acting as
a massive engine for heat.

As this ridge strengthens, it will team up with a persistent
southwest flow to pump increasingly warm air into the area. This
transition will be felt immediately over the weekend, when
afternoon highs moderate into the upper 70s across the
mountains and climb as high as the upper 80s in the foothills
and Piedmont. On Monday, the mercury will soar to levels 10F to
15F degrees above the seasonal average, putting long-standing
record highs under threat. This peak of the heatwave will bring
a genuine summer feel to the start of the work week, with
thermometers comfortably reaching the lower 80s west of the Blue
Ridge and stretching into the lower 90s east through Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are ongoing everywhere but LWB as of 14/16Z,
which is still stuck at MVFR. An impressive VFR cloud deck was
still impacting the remaining mountain sites. Ceilings should
continue to gradually lift through this afternoon, with clear
skies eventually returning everywhere later tonight. Decreasing
moisture should preclude stratus overnight. Expect some passing
mid/high clouds tomorrow.

WNW winds are gusting to 20-25 kts. Sustained winds will drop
off after 15/00Z but expect a few gusts to remain slightly
elevated overnight. Thus fog will not be a concern. Relatively
light NW winds are expected tomorrow with a few gusts to 15 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure remains the defining weather feature through early
next week, with VFR expected. May see a rogue shower north of
LWB over the weekend, but more than likely it will just be some
clouds. Flow becomes more southerly/southwesterly Saturday
through Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

StationHi Max THi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke94 in 196269 in 1996     93
Lynchburg93 in 191168 in 1894     93
Danville93 in 197469 in 2015     94
Bluefield87 in 199666 in 2015     86
Blacksburg88 in 191161 in 2018     89


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

StationHi Max THi Min TForecast High
Roanoke96 in 196269 in 2022    93
Lynchburg93 in 196266 in 2022    92
Danville95 in 196269 in 1962    93
Bluefield89 in 191166 in 1977    85
Blacksburg91 in 191161 in 1938    88

&&


.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS/SH
AVIATION...SH
CLIMATE...SH