Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS61 KRNK 271048
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
548 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Update.

Clearing skies through this afternoon, temperatures improving
for Saturday.

Uncertainty still with system early next week, but looks to
bring at least minor winter weather impacts to the area.
Initial snow amounts have trended down, freezing rain amounts
trended up.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Clearing skies today, with temperatures improving through
Saturday.

2) A system will bring a mix of wintry precipitation to the area
during the beginning of next week. Uncertainty remains with
types and amounts, but still looks to be minor impacts.

3) Warmer weather for the second half of the week, with some
chances of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Clearing skies today, with temperatures improving
through Saturday.

The Mid-Atlantic region remains in broad troughing, with a
 short wave dipping into south GA and northern FL today and
tonight. A surface boundary continued to sink south this
morning, with high pressure nosing into the Appalachians from
the NE. Fog and stratus were prevalent this morning, but will
lift and scatter out through the morning and early afternoon.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 50s for most today.

A high pressure wedge remains in place, and the contributions
of westerly winds, rising heights, and sunny skies will all
support readings in the upper 50s in southeast WV and the
mountains to the mid 60s for the Piedmont. Saturday looks to be
the nicest day for the mountains, but warmer temperatures are on
tap for the Piedmont Sunday.



KEY MESSAGE 2: A system will bring a mix of wintry precipitation
to the area during the beginning of next week. Uncertainty
remains with types and amounts, but still looks to be minor
impacts.

By early next week, a broad 500mb trough will be positioned over
the eastern US, with the local forecast area near the base of
the trough and in more zonal flow, with a couple of shortwaves
moving through the flow aloft. At the surface, a strong cold
front drops south the area on Sunday, bringing an Arctic airmass
into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The surface high will
become situated over the northern Mid Atlantic, with the cooler
air getting wedged down the eastern side of the Appalachians.
One such shortwave will track into the area Monday, bringing
increased precipitation chances to the region. Moisture from the
Gulf will be drawn northward, eventually overrunning the colder
air at the surface. Precipitation type will depend on the depth
of the cold air, as well as the exact track of the system.
Still disagreement among deterministic model guidance as to what
will be the dominant p-type, but in comparison to the previous
afternoon forecast, initial snowfall amounts for Monday morning
through Wednesday morning have trended slightly lower and
freezing rain amounts have trended slightly higher.

At this time, there looks to be a period of snow and rain/snow
mix Monday, with a deeper layer of cold air, mainly north of
the VA/NC state line. By Tuesday, there looks to be a transition
to freezing rain with more warm air moving in aloft and the
cold air layer becoming shallower; model soundings show a 5 to 7
degree warm nose by Tuesday morning. Then, by Wednesday, once
the wedge is eroded, precipitation should be all rain. Again,
there is still uncertainty with this system and therefore
forecast confidence is low. There is a 20% to 50% probability
for at least minor winter impacts (winter driving conditions),
and less than 10% probability for moderate impacts (hazardous
driving conditions, closures and disruptions to infrastructure)
for most of the area east of Interstate 77 in VA, so continue to
monitor the forecast in the coming days as details become more
defined.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmer weather for the second half of the week,
with some chances of rain.

The return to winter weather during the beginning of the week
will be brief. The upper level pattern flips later in the
week, as strong upper ridging takes over the eastern US,
bringing anomalously high 500mb heights for this time of year,
above the 90th percentile relative to climatology. Temperatures
quickly rebound after Wednesday, aided by southerly return flow
from the surface high once it has moved into the Atlantic. A few
more shortwaves moving into the area will keep 20% to 40%
probabilities of precipitation in the forecast for the latter
half of the week, especially with increasing moisture advection.
While the second half of the week will not be a washout, can
expect times of precipitation, the timing of which is just
uncertain, but with these temperatures 15 to 20 above normal,
any precip will be rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog and low ceilings look to linger through the early morning
hours at all terminals, with MVFR to LIFR restrictions expected
until 15 to 18Z, improving first in the west. Sub-VFR ceilings
will linger longest at DAN through 21Z due to a stalled frontal
boundary draped across the Carolinas.

Winds will generally remain light at around 5 knots or less through
the TAF period. Winds at the start of the period will be out of
the north/northeast through the morning hours, before a
transition to southerly/southeasterly occurs during the
afternoon hours.

More fog and low stratus is anticipated Saturday morning as
well, though ceilings and visibilities look to be lower east of
the Blue Ridge than in southeast WV during the early Saturday
morning hours. Similar to today, this will begin to improve
not long after sunrise Saturday morning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain and wintry precipitation chances increase again Sunday
night through Tuesday, bringing sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...AS/SH