Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS61 KRNK 090611
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon,
lingering through this evening.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon,
lingering through this evening.

Stationary front still remains draped over the forecast area
this morning and will continue to persist within the area
through this afternoon and evening. Weaker forcing today will
somewhat limit storm coverage, but still expecting a few
afternoon storms to develop across the mountains initially.
Storm motions today will be a bit greater with increasing
westerly flow, so any storms that do form should tend to not be
as stationary as the past few day. With increased storm motions,
the threat of flash flooding is lower today, but any storms that
exhibit training could cause some localized flooding issues
given the very moist airmass that is still in place. A few
stronger storms may also result in strong gusty winds, but
overall this threat should remain very localized as well. Storms
will diminish slowly after sunset tonight.

Key Message 2: Daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast through the weekend.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be a continued focus for
showers/storms again Thursday with greatest coverage from 1400
to 2200 EDT, basically aligned with the peak heating of the day.
Wind fields aloft are forecast to remain weak and with the
front essentially stalled over the area, will have to contend
with another day for localized heavy rain and marginally severe
storms.

A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great
Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and
storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south
of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for
early next week. Temperatures through the end of the week are
expected to remain near normal and may actually cool to below
normal for a few days early next week. The ridge of high
pressure which brought the heat prior to the 4th of July is
shifting west over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and morning
patchy dense fog continues for today. Highest confidence for
fog development is west of the mountains for areas that received
rain yesterday, with KBLF and KLWB the most likely to see vsbys
lower than 2 SM and ceilings below 1kft. KBCB may see vsby 1SM
or lower at times through the morning, but confidence is not
quite as high, so only have included it as a TEMPO group.
Conditions improve to VFR areawide soon after sunrise, after
about 13Z or so.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected as early as 17Z, waning by
00Z Friday. Included TSRA for KBLF and KLWB, where thunderstorms
should reach first, as well as KROA and KLYH, as confidence is
higher a bit farther north. Left VCTS for KBCB and KDAN, as high
res guidance shows some differences in how far south storms make
it. Nonetheless, any storms that develop near any terminals have
the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain that could
quickly reduce vsby, and lightning.

Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to
moderate in storm coverage.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. Heavy downpours,
gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of
the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the
overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall
occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off
quickly after 13Z daily.

Potentially drier conditions look to arrive for early next
week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...AS/PM