Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

073
FXUS61 KRNK 251803
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation forecast updated.

Rainfall chances on Sunday have continued to decrease to below
10% as dry air is now expected to funnel into the region from
the northeast. Confidence continues to increase on another
round of rainfall during the middle of next week. Confidence is
low on potential additional systems late next week into early
May.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1: A more active weather pattern is forecasted for today through
the middle of next week, with multiple cold fronts bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A more active weather pattern is forecasted for
today through the middle of next week, with multiple cold fronts
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms.


Today, a cold front is currently pushing into the region, with
showers and thunderstorms expected to blossom across the area by
this afternoon and evening as instability increases albeit to
meager values of around 500 J/Kg of SBCAPE. Instability values
this low combined with mid and upper level shear values below 15
knots should keep storms from developing any severe
capabilities; however, some lightning can`t be ruled out as some
stronger showers and thunderstorms fuel off of the
aforementioned SBCAPE values forecast for today.

This mornings KRNK sounding analyzed a PWAT of 0.68 inches.
While this value is statistically the daily mean for todays
date, it will certainly not provide enough moisture ahead of
this passing front to bust the ongoing drought across the area.
Given the lack of deep moisture that is more characterized by
PWATs of greater than 1.0 inches, expect to see widespread
rainfall totals between 0.25 and 0.5 inches today. Some areas
across the Piedmont may upwards of 1.0 inch as thunderstorms
push east of the Blue Ridge.

Once the cold front passes the region by Sunday morning, all
rain chances drop off as cooler and drier air works its way
into the region from the northeast as a backdoor front slides
southeast with high pressure setting up across the Northeast.
This drier airmass will keep the area dry through Tuesday
morning before an additional cold front pushes east towards the region
by Tuesday afternoon. While this front does not look to produce
much rainfall on Tuesday afternoon, it will remain draped across
the Tennessee valley and West Virginia during the overnight
hours. An upper level disturbance looks to slide east along the
frontal boundary Tuesday night and into Wednesday. As this
occurs, a weak surface low is expected to develop and slide
northeast along the southern Appalachians providing chances for
more widespread rainfall chances to the area. Rainfall totals
look to be increasing during this timeframe, with around 0.5 to
1.0 inches of rainfall looking possible during the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe.

An upper level trough looks to settle over the eastern Conus
after Wednesday`s low pressure system. Multiple shortwave
disturbances look to be embedded within the larger trough, and
could lead to additional rainfall chances by next weekend;
however, confidence is low at this time on when, where and how
much rainfall might occur as these smaller disturbances and
their tracks around the main upper level trough have not come
into agreement among ensemble and cluster data yet.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Showers and eventually isolated thunderstorms continue through this
evening before moving SE around 00-02Z. -TSRA looks possible at all
terminals through this evening, but they will be non-severe. Still
may get erratic gusty winds out of this activity. MVFR visibilities
are already at LWB and BCB due to moderate rain, but more widespread
MVFR is expected after dark as convection starts to end and ceilings
lower. IFR ceilings are likely at LYH and DAN overnight, with LIFR
ceilings and visibilities for BLF and LWB. BCB and ROA have a better
chance of staying MVFR with a dry slot working in over the Blue
Ridge. Should see improvement to VFR by 12-15Z for most, however LYH
and DAN may hold onto clouds longest with ENE winds keeping moisture
there for much of the day. ENE winds may become gusty tomorrow
afternoon.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry and mainly VFR Sunday afternoon through Monday, with -SHRA/-TSRA
and sub-VFR conditions developing again at times Monday night
through Wednesday. Most activity is expected in the western
mountains and in the afternoons and evenings. Thursday we could see
some lingering stratus and mountain showers for the mountains.

Gusty SE and then SSW winds develop Monday night into Tuesday. Gusty
WNW winds are forecast again Wednesday and Thursday with a frontal
passage. These winds should stay below 25 knots.

Confidence continues to increase in additional showers and a few
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, in addition to the
potential for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...SH