Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

142
FXUS61 KRNK 070031
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added chance of freezing drizzle to the western zones early
tonight...otherwise no change to headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating snow into Saturday morning.

2) Strong northwest winds tonight into Saturday areawide.

3) Very cold wind chills Friday night into Sunday morning.

4) Warming trend next week with some small chances of
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Accumulating snow into Saturday morning.

Strong short wave which produced burst of snow during the
afternoon has exited the forecast area. Amounts of 1 to as much
as 4 inches were reported west of the Blue Ridge with highest
amounts along the VA/WV border between Blacksburg and Bluefield.
East of the Blue Ridge temperatures were too warm for much if
any accumulation... a dusting here and there, but nothing on the
roads. Now that the first wave has passed we are going through a
lull in precipitation. There is some freezing drizzle being
reported along the western slopes and rime icing at the highest
elevations but dendritic growth lacking until the arctic air
arrives later tonight. As of 7PM, surface obs indicated
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s along the western slopes
to the upper 30s to near 40 in the NC piedmont. Temperatures in
the lower to mid 30s were also observed over KY, southern OH and
Indiana. The true arctic air was just entering northern Oh from
the Great Lakes with ETA into our forecast area late tonight
or daybreak Saturday. Until then will just be dealing with the
wind and lingering cloud cover. Once the arctic air arrives,
dendritic growth will begin to promote more ice crystals within
the clouds along with accumulating snow showers over the
mountains...and flurries elsewhere. Will have to see if leading
edge of arctic air triggers any snow Squall kind of banding
later tonight. Ingredients are there so will leave the current
forecast snow amounts in play with no change to the headlines.
Per previous forecast discussion...favorable snow squall
parameters reach our WV counties by 03z/10pm, so something to
watch if folks are out traveling late this evening. Could see
snow rates of 1-2"/hr. Cannot rule out some heavier snow bands
making it as far east as the I-81 corridor between Lexington and
Marion toward morning.


Key Message 2: Strong northwest winds tonight into Saturday
areawide.

Deterministic models/ensembles and probabilistic guidance still
advertise strong wind gusts arriving this evening behind the
short wave trough, with another surge arriving around dawn
Saturday. Per pattern recognition and model signals, a wind
advisory includes areas well into the VA/NC Piedmont.

The stronger winds will gust to 45 to 60 mph, highest along the
Blue Ridge and adjacent gaps that face northwest-southeast.

Winds should become less robust by Saturday evening.


Key Message 3: Very cold wind chills tonight into Sunday.


Once the arctic air arrives later tonight, expect rapid drop in
temperatures combining with the winds to push wind chills well
below zero in the higher ridges and around zero to 10 below
east. Cold weather advisories extend into the VA foothills as
most of those counties from Patrick to Amherst will likely have
wind chills at times from zero to 8 below Saturday morning.
Kept the cold weather advisory going into Sunday morning, but by
then winds should be weaker, though actual air temperatures will
be colder.

Key Message 4: Temperatures trend warmer through the
first half of next week. Precipitation chances increase during
the midweek, with potential for a wintry mix late in the week.

A large 500mb ridge over the central US will expand eastward for the
beginning of the work week as the trough pulls out of the eastern
half of the country. As the trough pulls away, so does the Arctic
air. Temperatures will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s west of the
Blue Ridge, to upper 50s to low 60s in the Piedmont, thanks to
southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching system.
Temperatures like these have not been seen since the warm spell of
early to mid January. Most of the remaining snow and ice should melt
fairly quickly under these warm couple of days, but the large piles
of snow/ice will likely take longer to melt.

An upper low develops over the Baja Peninsula and evolves into an
open wave as it tracks into the south central US early next week.
This southern stream system will be the next driver of precipitation
to the local forecast area. At this time, most of the upper level
energy looks to stay mostly to the south of the area, while the
surface warm front lifts north into the Mid Atlantic. With
temperatures above freezing, confidence is high that this precip
will fall as rain through Wednesday. However, by Thursday, an upper
trough dips south into the area from southeastern Canada, bringing
colder air, and as the colder air moves in, will see a transition of
the lingering rain into snow in the west, and a rain/snow mix in the
east for Thursday/Friday. The cold temperatures look to last into
the Valentines Day weekend, but are only about 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal norms, as compared to the 15 to 25 degrees below normal
temperatures this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR to OCNL IFR cigs are expected through the overnight. Snow
showers, areas of freezing drizzle and rime icing are expected
over the mountains. VSBYs will be highly variable, especially
over the mountains due to the snow showers in addition to
occasional ridge obscurations. Wind will also increase through
the overnight becoming windy daybreak with gusts 25 to 40 kts
out of the northwest.

Cigs are expected to improve Saturday with return to VFR east of
the mountains and lingering MVFR cigs along the Appalachian
Divide. Winds will remain gusty through the day with ridge top
gusts up to 50 kts.

Look for scattering out of clouds Saturday afternoon and
clearing for Saturday night. Winds should also diminish with
decreasing gusts Saturday evening.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Warm front may bring period of light snow Sunday...otherwise
looking for transition to VFR conditions Monday and Tuesday
along with warming temperatures.

Next storm system will be warmer with rain potential and sub-
VFR Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ007-
     009>011-015-018>020.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ015>020-
     022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ007-009>019-022>024-032>035.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009>014-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ020.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NCZ001-002-018.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ042>044.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-507.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     WVZ507-508.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/PM/WP
AVIATION...PM