Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS61 KRNK 191720
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
120 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated.

High temperature forecasts were lowered for Thursday and Friday
as the wedge looks to be more prominent during this time period.
Most guidance has come in much cooler than the NBM, and this has
been a trend with past wedge cases this year. Further lowering
or possible slight increases of temperatures may be needed for
Thursday and Friday as model guidance gets a better handle on
the pattern. Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front
is still expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance
of showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues into tomorrow with record-
breaking to near record-breaking heat possible through
tomorrow. Cooler weather is expected late week into Memorial
Day weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the weekend beginning with a cold front tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat
possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into
Memorial Day weekend.

Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through
tomorrow due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic.
500mb heights will continue to remain elevated tomorrow ahead of
the cold front. With the cold front and associated
showers/thunderstorms not expected to reach the area until late
in the afternoon and evening, high temperatures are forecast to
reach the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to
upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. With more scattered cu and
upper level cirrus from showers and thunderstorms, temperatures
are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today.

Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this
heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have
been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated,
limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing
to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat
arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves past the area,
with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder
of the work week and into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region
from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated
surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec
and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some
forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep
layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This
amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in
the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular
clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening
across the region. With these shear and instability values, some
hail and damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out across the
area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
remains in place to account for severe weather potential across
portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary
across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high
pressure looks to push across the Great Lakes region leading to
east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to
some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from
the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at
the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for
severe weather looks to be minimal; however, shower activity
looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day
areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, with
elevated instability on the order of 100-500 J/Kg forecast
between the 700-500mb layer from CAM guidance like the HRRR and
NAMNEST.

Wedging looks to persist on Friday as the surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes looks to slide northeast towards the
Quebec/Ontario border. This will maintain wedging areawide as a
surface low develops across the central Mississippi valley. With
upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure
maintaining dominance over the western Atlantic, continued warm
moist air is expected to be advected north into the region
through the weekend. A warm front associated with the
aforementioned surface low pressure system looks to push north
through the weekend; however, with the high pressure over
eastern Canada forecast to settle into the Northeast by the
weekend, wedging does not look to erode until possibly early
next week. With the aforementioned moisture advecting north
along this wedge, light to moderate rainfall associated with
isentropic lift looks to persist through the holiday weekend and
into early next week. While this may ruin outdoor holiday
weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to
the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural
and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks
to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced
rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding
potential remains very localized.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday midday, as
high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft keep the weather dry
and quiet.

There are very low chances for a couple showers to pop up along the
mountains this afternoon, but coverage would be very isolated at
best as the 500mb ridging continues to build and suppresses most
precipitation and convective potential. Will see the development of
scattered afternoon cumulus along and west of the mountains today,
but cloud bases will be generally 7kft or higher.

Winds will be southwesterly today, 10 knots or less, on the higher
end of that range in the Piedmont and lower in the mountains, with
the occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours, then
decreasing during the evening and overnight hours. By mid morning
Wednesday, winds over the mountains will become more westerly, still
southwesterly in the Piedmont.

Will see cloud cover increase and bases lower ahead of a cold front,
which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday
afternoon/evening, with precipitation chances increasing after 18Z
Wednesday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. Rain showers
and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as the
front slows down over the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to periods
of sub-VFR heading into the weekend.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a
technical outage due to a major power supply failure.
Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently
unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible today and Wednesday. Here are
the current records and our current forecast.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station      Hi Max T    Hi Min T   Forecast High
Roanoke    96 in 1962  69 in 2022      95
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022      95
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962    96
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977    86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938    90

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Station Hi Max T         Hi Min T   Forecast High
Roanoke     98 in 1934  70 in 1998      94
Lynchburg   96 in 1941  68 in 1902      94
Danville    97 in 1996  68 in 2018      96
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 1996      82
Blacksburg  90 in 1934  66 in 1893      88

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...RCS