Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

935
FXUS61 KRNK 031039
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
639 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated for 12z TAFs...

Forecast rainfall amounts remain consistent for the frontal
system on Sunday.

A prolonged dry period next week with the potential for
frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures through Saturday. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms.

2. Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool down early next
week, temperatures returning to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures through Saturday. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms.

Strong high pressure that has been anchored over Bermuda will
continue to maintain its influence over the southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic states through Saturday. This surface high
pressure in combination with an upper level ridge situated
generally over the same area will maintain well above normal
afternoon highs and mild overnight lows.

With lack of any appreciable forcing, only very isolated
afternoon storms are expected through Saturday. Most convective
activity will wane with loss of daytime heating.

Areas that do see rain may see early morning fog this morning
and again Saturday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2:  Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool
down early next week, temperatures returning to normal.

A big change to the weather pattern will occur across the
region Sunday, with the arrival of a cold front. This cold
front is likely to be the last chance for meaningful rainfall
across the region for at least a week after its passage.
Probabilities for much of the area receiving at least 0.25" of
rainfall have stayed relatively the same at around 90-100%
chance, while probabilities have increased slightly for
receiving at least 0.50" of rainfall to around 60-80% for areas
west of the Blue Ridge, but around 25-50% for areas east of the
Blue Ridge.

Cooler and drier air will advect into the region from the
northwest behind the cold front, with yet an even cooler shot of
air by the middle of next week. Temperatures fall into the 30s
each morning on Monday and Tuesday with some frost potential in
the mountains. Temperatures by Wednesday morning could be well
below freezing into the mid 20s across the mountains and low 30s
in the Piedmont areas. Given the recent warmth, some sensitive
vegetation could be impacted if preventive measures are not
taken ahead of time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR expected through the 24hr TAF period. Light calm winds this
morning, increase by late morning and early afternoon with a few
gusts around 20kts. Winds should become light and variable again
overnight.

Some scattered afternoon CU possible with an isolated
thunderstorm. Low confidence of location of storms, along with
low coverage if they do form, so have not added TS mention in
TAFs.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

By the Sunday, coverage of showers/storms increases, which
could result in MVFR or lower conditions at times. The cold
front should move through Sunday night with conditions gradually
improving.

A prolonged dry period expected into next week, which should
result in widespread VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/EB
AVIATION...BMG/WP