Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS61 KRNK 071107
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
607 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 9:00 AM EST.

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Strong northwest winds tonight into Saturday areawide.

2) Very cold wind chills Friday night into Sunday morning.

3) Winds calm and benign weather begins early next week.

4) Warming trend with a chance of precipitation by the
middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Strong northwest winds tonight into Saturday
areawide.

Light snow showers look to continue across mountain locations
and especially upslope mountain locations through day break
today. These snow showers will be accompanied by very strong
winds thanks to a 60 to 70 knot 850mb northwesterly jet and
pressure rises on the order of 6 to 8 mb every 6 hours across
the area. This has lead to much of the area under a Wind
Advisory, and areas along the Blue Ridge and higher elevation
areas being under a High Wind Warning. As of 1:00 AM, Jefferson
NC has already gusted to 43 knots, and the strongest winds are
not anticipated until the 6:00 to 9:00 AM timeframe. With winds
expected to be in the 55-60 mph range for High Wind Warning
locations, and 45-55 mph range for Wind Advisory locations,
there will likely be local impacts such as downed trees and
power poles that could lead to power outages across the region.

Winds will steadily diminish throughout the day today, but will
continue to be blustery areawide. More calm winds should return
to the region by sunset.


Key Message 2: Very cold wind chills through Sunday morning.

As a surface high pressure currently over central Canada enters
into the Ohio valley today, Arctic air will continue to advect
south into the region. These frigid temperatures combined with
very strong wind gusts mentioned above will lead to wind chills
of 15 to 25 below zero across Greenbrier and Bath counties
through the remainder of this morning and through tonight into
Sunday morning. This has prompted an Extreme Cold Warning
across both counties through Sunday morning. Areas along and
west of the Blue Ridge will similarly see wind chills as cold as
5 to 14 degrees below zero. Wind chills this cold have prompted
a Cold Weather Advisory for these areas through Sunday morning
as well.

Along with cold wind chills, actual temperatures both this
morning, and Sunday morning will be in the single digits across
mountain locations, and teens across the Piedmont. Sunday
morning may see more single digits across areas west of the Blue
Ridge as high pressure moves overhead leading to efficient
radiational cooling areawide.


Key Message 3: Winds calm and benign weather begins early next
week.

By Sunday morning, the center of a high pressure system will be over
us and winds will calm down. This will mark the beginning of a
relatively benign weather pattern for early next week. Sunday may
still have a small chance of snow due to a perturbation that
crosses over. This signal is weak and precipitation chances are
no greater than 30% and any snow accumulation will be towards
the west.

Key Message 4: Warming trend with a chance of precipitation by the
middle of next week.

The next notable weather event will likely be in the form of a
frontal system in the middle of next week. A long cold front
connected by a series of surface lows will pass through and provide
the region another chance of precipitation.  This precipitation is
likely to be rain given a warming trend that is expected to occur
around the same time period. 500mb heights and some ridging is
expected prior to the front`s arrival. A side note, a cutoff low
over Baja California that has been previously mentioned looks to be
further south and along the Gulf Coast and may not assist as much in
building the ridge over the southeastern United States.
Nevertheless, a large 850mb high pressure system over Florida will
direct some warmer and moist air from our southwest. While low
temperatures may still be around or below freezing, high
temperatures are likely to climb all the way into the 40s and 50s.
Dew points will also spike back into the 30s and 40s. The well above
freezing temperatures during the daytime will allow the rest of the
snow on the ground to melt. While it is uncertain how much rain will
fall at this point, flooding concerns due to melted snow and
rainfall is very low given drought conditions. After this event,
models enter disagreement on what follows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR restrictions are being observed at mountain terminals
this morning, with light to moderate snow still be reported at
BLF, BCB, and LWB. As drier air makes its way into the region
today, these snow showers should come to an end by the mid
morning hours.

MVFR restrictions look to end around the same time as snow
showers during the mid morning. BCB will likely return to VFR
conditions first, with LWB and BLF following by the late morning
to early afternoon hours.

Along with restrictions, gusty northwest winds up to 25 to 40
knots, with gusts up to 50 knots possible along ridge tops
are expected through this evening. This will likely lead to
turbulent take offs and landings at local airports, with LLWS
possible at mountain terminals through the mid morning hours as
well. Winds look to diminish by the 00 UTC timeframe on Sunday
areawide, with more calm winds forecast for the remainder of the
weekend and early next week.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Warm front may bring a period of light snow Sunday...otherwise
looking for transition to VFR conditions Monday and Tuesday
along with warming temperatures.

Next storm system will be warmer with rain potential and sub-
VFR Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ007-
     009>011-015-018>020.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ015>020-
     022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ007-009>019-
     022>024-032>035.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ007-009>014-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ020.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ001-
     018.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ001-002-
     018.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001-002-018.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ042>044-507.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ508.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ042>044.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ042>044-507.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ507-508.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...EB/PM