Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS61 KRNK 091736
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1236 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18Z aviation update.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected
through midweek.

2) Late week system brings coldest air of the season along with
upslope snow potential in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected
through midweek.

Breezy conditions to continue through sunset this evening. Surface
high pressure builds over the Southern US and winds decrease
through Tuesday. The weak surface high will shift east into the
Atlantic by Wednesday and southerly flow will increase ahead of
an approaching storm system on Thursday. Dry and warm, above
normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday...with
widespread highs Tues/Wed in the 60s and lower 70s. Overnight
lows remain fairly typical featuring 30s and a few lower 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Late week system brings coldest air of the season
along with upslope snow potential in the mountains.

A low pressure system develops across the Northern Great Plains
midweek and moves into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. A deep
upper-level trough will accompany the low as it moves into the
Eastern CONUS. The system will bring a chance of rainfall to the
Mid-Atlantic, though models have been trending drier over the
past several runs. Greatest rain chances will be west of the
Blue Ridge, with lower confidence in rain coverage for the
Piedmont.

The low redevelops near the East Coast on Friday, but again
models differ in where this occurs and slightly differ on timing
with some models keeping the low over the Northeastern US,
while others take it out to sea quickly. The location will be
important as to how much wraparound moisture is available for a
northwest upslope snow event in the mountains as the upper-
level trough moves over the area. Current thinking is that some
upslope snow will be possible in the western mountains, but
still too early to determine how much.

Strong cold air advection behind the departing system will keep
temperatures across the mountains in the 30s and low 40s.
Upslope clouds will also limit any warming, so have trended
temperatures during the day slightly cooler. Cold overnight
with widespread 20s and lower 30s...the coldest being Sunday
morning featuring low/mid 20s in the mountains and upper
20s/low 30s east of the mountains.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR expected for the valid 24hr TAF period. Gusty west-northwest
winds will continue until sunset this evening, then becoming
light overnight. Daytime mixing on Tuesday may result in winds
increasing again from the west. Occasional gusts to 20kts
possible in the higher terrain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will continue through midweek, as high pressure
stays over the area. Next rain chances and likely sub-VFR flight
conditions arrive Thursday, with the best chances west of the
Blue Ridge for BCB/BLF/LWB. Showers linger into Friday for the
mountains, and potentially some light upslope snow could fall
Friday into Saturday at BLF/LWB, potentially keeping sub-VFR
conditions in place at those terminals, with VFR elsewhere.

Gusty northwest winds Friday and into Saturday following the
cold front passage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG/JCB