Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

684
FXUS61 KRNK 171818
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
118 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southeast will continue to bring dry
weather through tomorrow morning. A strong front will approach
from the west on Thursday afternoon, resulting in the next
chance of precipitation for the region. A brief cool down behind
the front on Friday, will be followed by warmer conditions into
the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions are expected through Thursday morning.

2. Rain will begin to arrive as early as Thursday afternoon as
a cold front moves east.

Will begin to lose the influence of high pressure overhead as it
shifts east over the Atlantic tonight. In-situ wedging to
continue through Thursday morning, with the main cold front
remaining just to the west through Thursday evening.

Will see showers begin to develop by Thursday afternoon as
moisture is drawn northward from the Atlantic and Gulf. Most of
this rain will be along and east of the Blue Ridge through
Thursday evening. Lighter rain west of the Blue Ridge until the
main front arrives, bringing with it a line of rain with heavier
downpours.

Although the region is mostly cloudy this afternoon, increasing
warm air advection from the southwest has resulted in
temperatures warming into the 40s and low 50s. Will see a
couple more hours of warming, but then temperatures will fall
back into the 20s and 30s overnight. Increasing low level jet
ahead of the front will cause winds to gradually increase
throughout Thursday, especially on favored ridges across far SW
Virginia and SE West Virginia. Gusts in the 20 MPH to low 30 MPH
range will be possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Cold front will cross the region on Thursday night, through
Friday morning.

2. Strong wind gusts will develop across the mountain ridges on
Friday morning in the wake of the cold front`s passage.

3. Dry high pressure will pass overhead on Saturday, making for
abundant sunshine and temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

The brunt of the rainfall is forecast to fall Thursday night,
and occur east of the Blue Ridge, particularly along & east of
Highway 29, due to a surge of moisture arriving from the south.
And while confidence is high that the entire area will receive
rainfall, totals are still in question. Rainfall amounts east of
the Blue Ridge are most likely to range from 0.5" to 0.60"
where moisture is most abundant. For large portions of the
mountains however, lower totals are forecast, with a 60% to 70%
chance of these areas receiving at least 0.25". While the
occasional rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, the
chances of thunderstorms occurring anywhere within the service
area are very low.

The cold front will pass rapidly across the mountains shortly
after midnight Friday, with rainfall diminishing through dawn as
dry and cool high pressure approaches. Winds speeds will
increase through the remainder of the night once the winds shift
from the northwest, with gusts along the higher mountain ridges
ranging from 35 mph to locally 50 mph by late morning, before
speeds gradually settle down Friday night. The cooler air will
cause residual rain showers to change to snow showers, which may
persist into late afternoon along the ridges of southeast West
Virginia. Any snowfall totals are forecast to be modest given
very limited remaining moisture to work with.

High pressure will arrive Friday night and remain settled
across our region through Saturday night, maintaining generally
dry conditions. Given increased sunshine on Saturday as high
pressure passes overhead, afternoon temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal for the second half of December.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers Tuesday, highest chances in the mountains.
Otherwise, dry for most.

2. Temperatures above normal.

A weak 500mb over the eastern US will pull away from the area
Sunday, dragging a cold front farther east towards the Atlantic
Coast, with upper flow turning west-northwesterly. A strong ridge
will build over the south central US for the beginning of the week,
strengthening the northwesterly downstream flow over the
Appalachians, which will keep temperatures slightly cooler for
Monday. The ridge will move eastward with time, becoming more
centered over the Gulf through the long term forecast period, with
its influence increasing over the local forecast area, and prompting
an increasing trend in temperatures. At the surface, high pressure
moves into the area from the west Sunday, and moves across the area
through the first half of the week. A low pressure system looks to
develop in the northern Plains, and track east towards the Great
Lakes towards the midweek time frame, pushing the high over the Mid
Atlantic offshore. Return flow around the high and southwesterly
flow ahead of the cold front associated with the low will draw
moisture northward into the area, as well as warmer air, and so will
see increasing chances for rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be mostly above normal through the first half of
the work week, between 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Highs
will be in the 40s and 50s, nearly touching 60 in some places in the
NC Piedmont by Wednesday. Lows will be coldest Monday morning, in
the 20s for most, but trending steadily warmer, in the mid to upper
30s by Wednesday, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions overall, except some isolated MVFR across West
Virginia through the evening. Otherwise, expect periods of mid
and high clouds overnight.

Gusty west winds to 15-25 kts over the higher elevations before
diminishing tonight. LLWS will be a concern possibly again
overnight tonight with an active LLJ.

Clouds increase again and gradually lower into midday Thursday.
Some showers could begin to impact DAN and areas along the crest
of the Blue Ridge by noon. Gusty south winds will also increase
at BLF into Thursday evening.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain chances increase areawide Thursday night which could bring
sub- VFR cigs/vsbys, with rain/snow showers Thursday night.
Lingering sub- VFR Friday in the mountains with VFR east,
becoming VFR Saturday areawide. Strong winds are anticipated
Friday as well, behind the frontal passage Thursday. The weekend
looks dry, but increasing clouds are likely.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...BMG/NF
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG