Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

141
FXUS61 KRNK 190547
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood watch cancelled for southeast WV into southwest VA as
heavier downpours have ended. Kept flood watch for NW NC into
southside VA going per radar trends and higher moisture content
from remnants of Arthur.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy downpours exit this morning.

2) Dry weekend followed by more chances for showers/storms
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy downpours exit this morning.

Potential still there for heavy downpours to cause localized
flooding in NW NC into southside VA as pwats are running 1.7 to
1.9 inches. Fortunately, convection has diminished so rainfall
rates are mainly running 1 inch or less. However, there remains
upstream moderate rain, and portions of NW NC had heavier rain
earlier.

Once shortwave associated with Arthur passes east this morning,
should see a decreasing rain trend. We dry out today with
sunshine returning west to east, with a northwest breeze.
Temperatures will be closer to normal with mid 80s east to 70s
west. Humidity levels should drop off by the afternoon as well.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weekend but more storm chances early next
week.

High pressure follows the front Saturday into Sunday. Models
agree on a broad trough over the Great Lakes into the mid-MS
Valley heading into Monday swinging through the mountains early
next week. This feature with the front and good moisture
advection should provide another opportunity for showers and
storms, but like previous systems, fronts that come from the
northwest favor the mountains (esp western slopes) for rainfall
and to a much lesser extent east of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers will likely impact most taf sites this morning, ending
in the mountains by 08z, and in the east by 12-14z. Cigs start
to fall to MVFR to IFR through 14z before winds pick up and
scatter out the lower clouds. Vsbys could drop as well in the
rain to IFR, and then fog in the mountains could bring IFR to
BLF/LWB and perhaps BCB. VFR expected for all sites from late
Friday morning through the end of the TAF period. Expect west to
northwest winds to increase to 9-12 kts after 14z with gusts to
20-25 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the weekend.
Shower and storm chances ramp up Monday so expect some sub-VFR
weather. Still some scattered storm activity Tuesday but mainly
VFR outside any storms.

Other sub-VFR possibilities may be some late night/early morning
mountain valley/river fog during the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ032-043-044-
     058.
NC...Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ003>006-
     018>020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP