Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXUS61 KRNK 181815
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 in effect for along/east of the
Blue Ridge until 9pm today.


Aviation Updated. Good chance for showers and storms into
midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening shifts southeast Sunday,  with additional
chances for showers and storms through Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will be seasonable for late mid-late July, and
cooldown after next frontal passage late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe showers and thunderstorms into
this evening with additional chances for daily thunderstorms
through mid week.

Best severe parameters are in the Piedmont with SBCAPEs of 3000
to 4000 J/kg, and DCAPEs exceeding 1000 J/kg.

Main concern will be from wet microbursts as best shear is
further north. Storms in the mountains could get strong, but
radar trends show many cells competing with each other and this
will tend to keep instability limited. However, training of
cells in the mountains could cause flooding concerns. We`ve been
dry the last 3+ days for most of the area, so flooding would be
very localized.


5h trough axis will be over us tonight, and should drive the
front further south Sunday. Seems severe and flooding threat
would be limited to our NC counties if that tomorrow.
Showers/storms will could be scattered/numerous with the front
overnight tonight, the lower clouds may hinder instability
Sunday along/north of the front.

As the upper trough position amplifies and the fronts work
southeast through early-mid next week, heavy convective rain
chances will overspread much of the area thanks to a slow wavy
frontal progression.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will be seasonable for late mid-late July, and
cooldown after next frontal passage late week.

Pattern with 2 fronts and troughiness will lead to temperatures
running at/close to normal early in the period but still on the
humid side, then after the frontal passage midweek, should see
temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Storms will be hit/miss today but enough coverage to have VCTS
tempo thunder at times this afternoon per latest radar trends.
Severe threat looks best east of a line from HSP-MTV.

Showers will still be possible as another wave approaches
tonight but for now not as confident in having precip in past
00-02z. Best chance would be across WV tonight.

Lower cigs are likely as the front stretches across the area
late tonight. Anticipate some cigs in the 3 hundred to 3kft
range and at times fog could be an issue.

Should scatter out to VFR by the end of the taf period except
MVFR at BLF.


OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Daily convection will bring MVFR or briefly lower conditions
each day through Wednesday. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will
also be possible each morning. A westerly wind with speeds
between 6 and 12 kts will continue Sunday, with occasional gusts
as high as 25 kts for the mountains behind a frontal passage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP