Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXUS61 KRNK 012330
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
730 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower chances best across the foothills and piedmont this
evening. As winds turn to the southeast overnight, showers will
mainly be along the Blue Ridge then spreads across the entire
area Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this
weekend, with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few
strong/severe storms.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the
week, with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast this weekend, with the possibility of 1-3 inches of
rain and a few strong/severe storms.

Low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will move slowly
eastward into KY/TN this weekend with influx of moisture laden
air into the Appalachians...PWATs increasing into the 1.50 to
2.00 inch range for our forecast area. This will promote
isolated to scattered showers tonight becoming scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the day Sunday with
primary focus along the southern Blue Ridge where Convective
Allowing Models (CAMs) suggest S-SE upslope flow will enhance
the rain efficiency and provide for an area of low level lift
and regeneration.

As the shortwave trough drives the low closer to our region,
dynamic lift will also lead to sustainable rain production even
with loss of daytime heating, probability for rainfall just as
high late tonight as it will be during the day Sunday.

Greatest hazards through the weekend will be two-fold.

The first hazards is heavy rainfall, especially given how moist
we expect the airmass to be across the forecast area. The storm
system will be rather slow-moving, allowing for the rain to be
persistent. The development of off-and-on showers and storms
over similar areas could result in localized ponding/flooding
issues. As such, WPC has our area outlined for a Marginal, or
Level 1 Risk, of excessive rainfall through Sunday with a
Slight, or Level 2 Risk, of excessive rainfall for the southern
Blue Ridge from Patrick and Carroll Counties in VA into the
North Carolina High Country and Northwest Piedmont of NC.

The second hazard is the possibility of isolated strong or
severe thunderstorms. The right entrance region of the upper jet
should be moving across our neck of the woods Sunday afternoon,
resulting in increased diffluence aloft. Thermodynamically,
mixed-layer CAPE values around 1000 J/kg (maybe a little more)
could seen, especially from Southside Virginia into the North
Carolina Piedmont. With the increased forcing provided by the
surface low and cold front to our west, we could see some
isolated strong or severe storms in this environment. There are
a couple of limiting factors in my mind... (1) Boundary layer
wind speeds might be a tad low to get significant storm-scale
organization. (2) If precipitation is more widespread than
currently forecast, then instability should be lower. Given the
overall risk, SPC has our area outlined for a Marginal Risk
(Level 1) for seeing severe storms Sunday with the primary
impact being damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the week,
with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end of
the week.

As an upper-level low settles into the Tennessee Valley, it
should slowly push a cold front through most of our area before
it stalls. The upper low is then expected to "sit and spin"
close to the forecast area through much of the upcoming week.
This feature will continue to send disturbances through a rather
moist airmass, resulting in continued odds of seeing daily
showers and thunderstorms. There`s some indication that
convective probabilities may decrease during the latter half of
the week as the upper low ejects toward the Northeast U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flight conditions are bordering between VFR/MVFR this evening,
as low clouds have moved into the area. Storms are currently
tracking over the foothills with moderate to heavy showers along
the eastern side of the Blue Ridge (near KROA). These showers
may impact KLYH by 00Z. We should see a lull in showers after 10
PM, but low clouds and/or fog will likely hang around before
showers re-enter later tonight.

Late tonight, a warm front lifts through the area, bringing
more widespread chances of rainfall to all terminals. Rain could
be heavy at times, as cigs lower to IFR/LIFR after 08Z in the
mountains, and around 12Z in the Piedmont. Patchy fog will also
be possible in spots through mid-morning Sunday. Scattered rain
chances persist through the end of the TAF period at all
terminals tomorrow.

Southeast winds diminish overnight, though occasional gusts to
18 knots remain possible along western slopes through 06z. Winds
remain out of the southeast Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower/storm chances will stick around Sunday evening, as a
cold front moves into the area. The front stalls, allowing daily
chances of rain to continue, keeping likely sub-VFR flight
conditions in place at times through the week ahead. Overnight
patchy fog will also be possible each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/PM/RCS
AVIATION...JCB/RCS