Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

688
FXUS61 KRNK 031618
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1218 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast and aviation sections have been updated.
Temperatures were lowered due to the cool wedge persisting
through Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cool wedge should remain in place through Sunday to
provide cloudy skies and periods of rain.

2) Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the
week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cool wedge should remain in place through
Sunday to provide cloudy skies and periods of rain.

A cold front will move southeastward across the North Carolina
and Virginia border later this afternoon into tonight, while
high pressure passing eastward from Canada to the New England
states should allow a cool northeasterly flow to wedge against
the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. As a result, cloudy skies
with periods of rain showers should persist through this evening
and taper to light rain and drizzle overnight. Patchy fog
should also develop along the Blue Ridge tonight. Sunday will
stay cloudy with lower chances of rain as the cold front
continues southeastward towards the North Carolina coastline and
the cool wedge holds firm. Temperatures were lowered below the
model guidance consensus through tonight and Sunday due to the
cool and moist air mass in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions will return by Monday and last
throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and
Wednesday.

High pressure should cross the Great Lakes on Monday and
approach the Appalachian Mountains by Monday night. The flow
should turn towards the northwest and eliminate the cool wedge
east of the Blue Ridge. As the weather turns drier, dewpoints
should plummet into the 40s to bring more fall-like conditions.
Low temperatures for Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning were
nudged downward due to ideal radiational cooling expected with
clear skies and calm winds in the center of high pressure. Some
locations such as the Greenbrier River Valley and Burkes Garden
may see lows in the mid to upper 30s, which will bring the
potential for patchy frost. The models keep high pressure in
place for the remainder of the week as temperatures moderate.
This situation will only worsen the ongoing drought across the
Piedmont, and it may take until the beginning of the following
week for rain chances to return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A surface front had pushed across the forecast area and was
stalled over the Carolinas. Rain currently over the area was
associated with 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis along with
overrunning moisture atop a cool air wedge that had developed.
This rain will move east and/or diminish over our area this
evening. TAF sites were generally hovering around IFR to MVFR
for ceilings and visibilities in stratus, rain, and some fog.
Overnight expect widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings with IFR/MVFR fog
at times.

A wave of low pressure is expected to move east along the front
early Sunday and this may bring a second round of rain and
drizzle across parts of the forecast area for Sunday, possibly
impacting LYH and DAN more.

Winds are generally from the northeast, however there is quite a
bit of variability with the fronts in the area along with rain
influences. Gusts reaching up to 15-20 knots are possible along
and east of the Blue Ridge through this evening before
diminishing some overnight. Direction remains north-northeast
for LYH and DAN tomorrow, with lighter and more south-
southeasterly a direction at the other terminals. Few gusts are
expected tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Low stratus, fog, drizzle, and light to moderate rain at times
will bring MVFR or lower conditions through Monday morning. VFR
in high pressure follows thereafter through Thursday with the
exception of late night and early morning river valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...PM/SH