Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS61 KRNK 230723
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
323 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Updated.

A passing cold front will spread showers and occasional
thunderstorms into mainly the mountains this morning, followed
by gusty NW winds areawide. Fire weather concerns will be
elevated through this evening.

Otherwise, rain is likely towards the end of the week, with
another push of cool dry air to follow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A cold front brings a little rain this morning, followed by
gusty NW winds. This will increase fire weather concerns
through this evening.

2) Rain likely towards the end of the week.

3) Another round of cooler and drier weather after frontal
passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front moves through the area today
bringing breezy conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast.

A cold front was making progress through KY and WV, and will
move into the forecast area shortly. Still seeing about 500
J/kg of MLCAPE for most of SW WV and parts of southwest VA
associated with this feature, and we continue to see a few CG
strikes occurring. Also of note was a large pool of DCAPE in
place locally, around 800 J/kg, due to the amount of dry air we
have in the atmosphere up through about 25 kft. This will likely
limit cloud growth, but could support a few damaging
downbursts. The fine line ahead of the main area of convection
is most likely the cold front itself. After the initial push,
severe weather is not expected as the convection weakens. QPF
amounts look low, on the order of a few hundredths for the lower
terrain, to between a quarter of an inch to 5 tenths for the
higher terrain in WV and the southern Blue Ridge.

The front will move through the entire area by 10 AM or so, and
shower activity and thunderstorms affecting the mountains will
wane quickly. Could see some lingering upslope showers for
Bluefield and the Greenbrier Valley for a couple more hours
after that. Of more concern will be the accompanying NW winds
which will gust to about 25 to 35 mph areawide, diminishing
tonight. The higher ridges could see a gust or two to 40 mph.

The wind will also fuel fire weather concerns, and a Fire Danger
Statement is in place today and this evening for the Piedmont of
VA and NC, and a portion of the mountains. This means any fires
could spread rapidly with the amount of dry air, winds, and
dead grass and leaves on the ground.

Tonight, continued moderate CAA behind the front will push
temperatures down towards hard freeze territory for the
mountains, while the Piedmont hovers at or just above freezing.
Bring in any houseplants! Temperatures moderate Tuesday and
Wednesday, but Tuesday night also looks to range from the upper
20s to mid 30s areawide.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain likely towards the end of the week.

Confidence is increasing in another round of rain possible by
the end of the week. A mid-level ridge over the United
States/Mexican border will direct a small piece of energy just
west of Baja California clockwise and then eastward as it gets
captured by the mean westerly flow. The energy of this shortwave
looks to weaken by the time it gets to the Mid-Atlantic, but it
very well could arrive in time to offer a brief chance of
showers towards the end of the work week. Even if no
precipitation develops from this, a strong cold front from the
north is expected to swoop down by the weekend and provide a
greater chance of widespread precipitation. Temperatures will
recover a little by the time this front arrives, but confidence
is low on any severe potential. The cold front will also bring
some elevated winds with it and winds may gust between 15- 30
mph. Higher surface pressure takes over after and the weather
returns to a quiet period.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Another round of cooler and drier weather after
frontal passage.

The roller coaster of temperatures continues as the cold front
will bring temperatures back down by this weekend. While
temperatures may be in the 60s and 70s on Friday, the highs may
be in the 40s and 50s on Saturday. Early  temperatures could be
as low as the 20s and 30s (again). Dew points, likewise, will
drop and be as low as the teens and 20s. Air temperatures will
slowly recover by early next week as highs may get back up into
the 60s and 70s by then.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The biggest weather impact across area terminals through 24/1200
UTC will be winds. Expect winds to increase following a cold
frontal passage this morning. SW/W winds of 5 to 15 mph this
morning will veer to the NW with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range
will likely be seen across all terminals through this evening.
Also expect LLWS to continue through about 9-11Z for the
mountain terminals.

Flight categories are currently VFR, but will drop to a mix of
MVFR and IFR in -SHRA/-TSRA (may see some brief LIFR for BLF)
for BLF, LWB, BCB, and perhaps ROA through about 15-16Z. LYH and
DAN will see lowering VFR clouds during that same time but
likely won`t see precip. Ceilings improve as drier air arrives
in the lower levels, and expect VFR ceilings by mid morning
giving way to SKC and cirrus by early afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR prevails through Wednesday evening, with increasing clouds
and -SHRA chances for BLF and LWB Thursday ahead of a front. It
appears the front now arrives Friday morning, and rain spreads
to the remainder of the forecast area Friday midday through
Saturday morning, bringing sub-VFR conditions.

On Tuesday light SE winds are forecast, becoming SW by
Wednesday. Wind gusts pick up on Thursday ahead of a front,
and winds veer more to the west and then NW through Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Fire Danger Statement in effect...

...Elevated fire risk today for the Piedmont of Virginia and
North  Carolina, as well as a portion of the VA mountains and
foothills...

Increasingly gusty downsloping NW winds will develop today
through this evening, with gusts between 25 and 35 mph at
times. This along with little to no rain this morning, fine 10
and 1 hour fuels in the 7 to 10 percent range, and warmish
temperatures will support an increased risk of rapid fire
spread. A Fire Weather Danger is in effect through this evening.
While RH values remain low Tuesday, winds will be much lighter.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/SH
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/SH