Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

638
FXUS61 KRNK 081051
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
551 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Morning aviation update.

Slightly raised overnight lows due to earlier cloud cover.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and mild weather through midweek, next system to arrive
on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and mild weather through midweek, next system to arrive
on Thursday.

Quiet weather will continue through the overnight, with some
high clouds moving through the area. These clouds have slightly
decreased outgoing radiation, keeping temperatures a few degrees
warmer than previously forecast. Southeastern West Virginia
continues to hang on to low clouds that are slowly dissipating
and should be gone by sunrise. After a chilly start to the day
later this morning, with lows in the 30s, skies will clear and
a a beautiful fall day is in store, with highs in the low to mid
60s.

High pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic weather
pattern for the next several days, keeping dry and mild weather
in place for the Mid-Atlantic. As the high shifts east into the
Atlantic for the early part of the week, high temperatures will
rise to around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year, in the 60s to low 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive on Thursday, as a
longwave upper-level trough and a surface low pressure system
will develop across the Mississippi Valley midweek and track
northeast into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Models have
remained fairly consistent with the strength of the trough,
encompassing most of the Eastern CONUS Friday into next weekend.
The system will bring a chance of rainfall to the area, though
models do differ in the amount of moisture that will be
accompanying the system.

Once the front moves through, potentially the coldest air of
the season so far moves into our area, as northwest flow takes
over and the upper trough briefly stalls. Should this scenario
occur, the western mountains could very well see the first
snowflakes of the year. However, still being nearly a week out,
details will likely change. A hard freeze will also be possible
for a good chunk of the area, though the growing season has
already ended.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All terminals remain in VFR this morning, aside from LWB, which
has kept MVFR cigs all night due to the low-level clouds still
hanging on. Those clouds have been eroding west to east, and
will reach the terminal within the next couple of hours, likely
after sunrise, allowing VFR to return. A few high clouds remain
across the area, but are moving off to the east, with no impact
on flight conditions. Wind speeds are calm to light, and will
slightly increase to around 5 knots after sunrise.

VFR will then continue at all terminals through the end of the
TAF period. After 00z Monday, westerly winds increase due to a
passing system well off to our north and a dry frontal boundary
pushing through. Winds increase to around 10 knots, with gusts
up to 25 knots at all terminals but DAN, as they are further
south.

Due to the aforementioned frontal passage, LLWS of 40 knots from
the northwest is expected for all terminals except DAN/LYH
mainly between 04-10z Monday. Once the front clears through, the
LLWS will subside.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry weather and VFR flight conditions will persist at all
terminals through at least Wednesday night as high pressure
dominates a good portion of the South and Mid-Atlantic Regions.

The next chance of precipitation will be Thursday, as a low
pressure system will move into the area, bringing a chance of
rain to the area and likely sub-VFR flight conditions through
early Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB