Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

862
FXUS61 KRNK 152320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory for western Greenbrier expired at 5PM.

No changes to the cold weather advisory for the NC High
Country/Grayson Highlands and western Greenbrier.

A fire danger statement remains in effect fir the NC Piedmont
this afternoon due to gusty winds and low RH despite the cold
temperatures.

For the weekend system still high uncertainty for snowfall
amounts but trends keep best snow amounts east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow showers/flurries taper off by early evening.

2) Advisory level cold still expected into Friday morning in the
higher mountains.

3) Another surge of winds this evening but sub-advisory.

4) High uncertainty on winter system this weekend, but cold front
likely to pass through.

5) Very cold wind chills likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow showers/flurries taper off by early
evening.

Axis of 5h trough just to our west will move across this
afternoon. Snow squalls have been impacting WV, northwest of our
forecast area all morning. Favorable parameters for heavier snow
showers shift southward this afternoon so cannot rule out
another inch or 2 of snow in western Greenbrier and potentially
up to an inch as far south as Tazewell/Mercer if bands set up.
Once the main vort axis passes east there will start to be a
downward trend in snow showers with it ending in western
Greenbrier after dusk.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Advisory level cold in the higher mountains.

Sub-zero wind chills still are expected through early Friday
morning in the higher ridges of NC into Grayson County and
Western Greenbrier County. Elsewhere wind chills will be just
below zero to 5 above west of the Blue Ridge and in the teens in
the Piedmont.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Another surge of winds this evening.

In the wake of the upper trough models have another strong low
level jet arriving this evening along with 6 hr pressure rises
of 4 to 6 mb. Overall forecast soundings keep wind gusts below
advisory levels in the mountains but would not be surprised if a
few gusts over 45 mph occur along the higher ridges from Watauga
to the Alleghanys. Winds should taper off after midnight but
will still be somewhat brisk in mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 4: High uncertainty on winter system this weekend, but cold front
likely to pass through.

Recent model guidance suggests a surface low will be too far east
and away from a mid-level trough to support significant accumulation
of snowfall in our region this weekend. Previous forecasts have
noted the absence of a blocking high in the Atlantic that would
allow for the surface low to better align and travel with the
trough. There will be some intersection between the cold front
and the surface low to provide some snow in the southeastern
United States but any that reaches Virginia/North Carolina will
likely be east of the Blue Ridge with very light accumulations.
Certainty on this part of the forecast is low so this system
will still be monitored for any changes.

That being said, a cold front will pass through our area by the
weekend and will likely provide upslope snow for West Virginia
and elevated areas of southwestern Virginia. Precipitation
chances drop considerably past the Appalachian mountains.
Snowfall accumulations will likely change as we head into the
weekend but currently have Western Greenbrier with the most
between 2-4". With the front, however, there will be a brief
pickup of winds gusting between 20-30 mph. Deterministic models
have signaled the risk of snow squalls so this too will be
monitored in future forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 5: Very cold wind chills likely early next week.

After the weekend system, another cold front will move through early
next week. This front will be dry, but will deliver elevated winds
and much colder temperatures. Winds will gust between 25-35 mph and
will bring some of the coldest wind chills of the season Monday
night. Ensemble guidance suggests areas along and west of the
Blue Ridge will have wind chills below zero and sinking to
-15F in the mountainous areas. If this holds, it will warrant
some Cold Weather Advisories/Warnings, but this event is still
several days away. Higher pressure takes over before another
frontal system arrives later in the week to bring another chance
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sub-VFR cigs and at times vsbys at BLF and LWB with snow showers
this evening and into early overnight hours, with VFR
elsewhere. West- northwest winds stay gusty this evening, but
will begin to taper off through the night. Should see snow
taper off by 06z with cigs scattering out in the mountains.

Winds turn southwest ahead of the next system late Friday
morning with increasing mid and high clouds. Occasional gusts to
20kts east of the mountains.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another system moves into the area Friday night into Saturday,
again bringing snow chances mainly to the mountains, which would
lower flight conditions to sub-VFR. As this system passes east
low pressure will form along it and could bring more snow the
area Sunday with sub-VFR more likely along/east of the Blue
Ridge. Still uncertainty of snow but aviation interests along
the east coast should be aware.

Should be VFR Monday into Tuesday although a reinforcing shot of
cold air on gusty west winds will occur Monday into early
Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for VAZ015.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/WP