Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

180
FXUS61 KRNK 082310
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
610 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Nothing substantial has changed, though dewpoints were dropped a
few degrees tonight and tomorrow, due to observations running
slightly below the previous forecast. Temperatures were also
raised slightly in the mountains to match observations as well.
Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend begins tomorrow with rain chances
midweek.

2) Wintry precipitation possible with next system over
the weekend, though uncertainty is high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warming trend begins tomorrow with rain chances
midweek.

Will see a warming trend beginning tomorrow through midweek
with building 5h heights and 8h temps. Snow/ice cover will
slowly melt but will still influence highs mainly along/west of
the Blue Ridge so have cut highs through Wednesday by about 3-5
degrees from the models.

Midweek system is looking less impressive with main chances of
rain along/south of the VA/NC border. A few snowflakes mixed in
on the backside Wed night.


Key Message 2: Wintry precipitation possible with next system over
the weekend, though uncertainty is high.

Lots of uncertainty still remains in the sensible weather details
for the weekend, though the synoptic pattern is starting to come
into better agreement. Overall, a low pressure system looks to track
across the southern tier of the US, with a surface high building
over the northeast and Mid Atlantic, wedging down the eastern side
of the mountains late in the work week and into the weekend. Where
the surface low goes and how it evolves after it moves east of the
Mississippi River is less clear. Some deterministic models have the
upper shortwave phasing with a northern stream wave, pulling it
towards the eastern US quicker as the resultant trough becomes
negatively tilted, with the surface low then moving northeastward up
through the Ohio Valley. Other model solutions have no phasing in
the upper level patterns, and keeping the surface low going across
the southern US. With temperatures below freezing at night and in
the morning, then warming to above freezing, though to what degree
is also uncertain, this has implications on what p-types we will
see. As of now, have gone with snow in the morning, becoming more
rain and rain/snow mix in the afternoon and evening, then snow again
during the overnight. Cannot rule out other wintry p-types like
sleet and freezing rain as well, and climatologically, this is also
the time of year when we start to see more mixed p-type events.
Timing of the system right now looks to be over the weekend, but
significant differences in timing among model guidance exist, and so
uncertainty is high as to whether this will be a Friday
night/Saturday, Saturday, or Sunday event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR is nearly area-wide across all terminals, though BLF remains
on the edge of MVFR/VFR due to some low clouds. These clouds
will begin to fade out in the next few hours, with widespread
VFR returning through the night. Mostly clear skies continue
until early to mid morning tomorrow, when an inverted trough
west of the mountains will allow for some clouds to form and
move over the area, particularly BLF/LWB, where low VFR cigs
will return for the afternoon. No rain is expected, and winds
remain relatively light, with gusts near 10 knots Monday
afternoon.

Overall, a quiet day is expected tomorrow, with VFR through the
end of the TAF period. Confidence in the forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Next storm system will be warmer with rain potential and sub-
VFR Wednesday, mainly south of BLF-ROA-LYH line per trends.
Potential for some sub-VFR upslope clouds into Thursday morning
at LWB/BLF but mainly VFR til Friday with next system could
bring some wintry wx potential.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...JCB/WP