Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

724
FXUS61 KRNK 200827
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
327 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes this mornings Cold Weather Headlines. An Extreme
Cold Warning remains in effect until Noon EST for western
Greenbrier County, WV. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in
effect until Noon EST Tuesday from the Highlands of VA, and
bordering WV counties southward to the NC High Country.

Other than the cold, there are no significant weather hazards
anticipated through Friday.

There is increasing confidence that a winter storm will impact
parts of the region next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very dry cold airmass to remain over the forecast area today,
then moderate Wednesday and Thursday before another arctic front
sweeps through the area Friday.

2) Increasing confidence in winter storm this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Very dry cold airmass to remain over the forecast
area today, then moderate Wednesday and Thursday before another
arctic front sweeps through the area Friday.

Cold polar airmass associated with area of High Pressure over
the Midwest and Ohio valley will build over the forecast area
today. Temperatures in the teens and 20s were pretty common over
the area this morning with wind chills in the single digits. In
addition to the cold, the airmass was very dry with dewpoints
near zero. Models mix even dryer air to the surface this
afternoon with dewpoints near minus 10. This will likely result
in Rh values near 10 percent this afternoon...a lip cracker.

After another cold night tonight expecting a gradual moderation
Wednesday into Thursday. A weak front is expected to cross the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, but the airmass is so dry
that little or no precipitation is expected. Same front may
stall Thursday night just to our south and be the focus for some
light overrunning precip Friday...but this should all get
swept out of the area as a strong arctic moves through through
the forecast area Friday afternoon introducing another round of
bitter cold. Attm think QPF between now and Friday will be less
than a tenth of an inch.

As a reminder, please make sure to check on folks vulnerable to
the cold, and keep pets warm and dry and ensure their food and
water doesn`t freeze. Bundle up when needing to go outdoors, and
cover all exposed skin.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Potential winter storm this weekend.

There is a growing signal of a winter system to affect most of the
southern United States this weekend as well as the Mid-Alantic.
After Friday`s arctic front comes through, relatively colder
air will settle in. The front will stall across the United
States and a very large surface high pressure system will expand
its influence to the north and east and may even wedge to the
mountains. With subfreezing air in place, a surface low pressure
system from the southwest will travel along the stalled front
and provide a chance of snow for our area.

There is still a lot of time for things to change between now
and the weekend with respect to storm track, but overall
confidence is beginning to increase that a major winter storm
will impact the southern Appalachians this weekend. The
Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index has 60-70% chance of
moderate impacts for southwestern VA, and over 90% confidence in
minor impacts. The energy which models are latching onto to
produce this storm is still off the California coast. It is
forecast to track across the southern CONUS via the southern jet
stream, a feature that has not been very active this winter due
to La Nina.

Due to the very dry airmass that is being forecast to our north
this weekend there will be a very sharp cutoff to where it
snows vs. nothing occurs at all. From our forecast area
southward into the Carolinas and Deep South, confidence goes up
for QPF. Long range models are painting a swath of 1 inch plus
liquid QPF from the VA/NC border southward. Convert this to
wintry p-type and the impact is significant. In addition, cold
temperatures will linger after any snowfall, so there will be
little "natural" melting assistance in mitigating lasting
impacts.

Until we can get a better handle on the details, it is not a
bad idea to consider preparations in anticipation of this winter
storm. It seems almost certain that a significant winter storm
will occur with impacts to a large geographic area. It is
advised that folks take the time to prep before the weekend so
that travel is limited while road crews can do their job
unimpeded.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period ending 06Z
Wednesday. Winds will be gusty at times today, mainly in the 20
to 25 knot range. Winds are expected to diminish at sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widespread VFR conditions through at least Wednesday. Cloud cover
increases late Wednesday ahead of a weak front, which could
bring some light wintry precipitation to the mountains Wednesday
night and early Thursday. Brief period of dry weather follows,
before a better chance of more widespread wintry weather arrives
over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry airmass the next few days will lead to low humidity
values. Humidity minimums of 10 to 15 percent are possible this
afternoon. Winds will also be gusty at times.

In spite of the cold, the wind and low humidity will result in
good drying conditions...fine fuels becoming receptive to fire.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ007-009>012-
     015-018>020.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ001-018.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ042>044-507.
     Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/VFJ
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM