Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

794
FXUS61 KRNK 131110
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
610 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.
No major changes to the forecast were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Upslope snow event through Saturday for the western
mountains, much colder air through the weekend before a warmup
by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Upslope snow event through Saturday for the
western mountains, much colder air through the weekend before a
warmup by late next week.

Embedded shortwave disturbances rounding the axis of the
longer-wave trough currently over the eastern Conus look to
enhance upslope snow and rain showers across the area through
Saturday. These upslope snow showers will only effect the higher
terrain locations across the western mountains of NC/VA/WV.
Given that the ground temperatures across the area are still
fairly warm given the recent above average temperatures across
the region, any snow that does fall will likely melt. Any
accumulations that do occur will likely be across the highest
terrain areas. Flurries will be possible anywhere along/west of
I-81 today, and generally up to 0.5" is possible for the
western mountains outside of the higher elevations, where 1-3"
is possible, especially on elevated or grassy surfaces. It is
possible a few areas such as Western Greenbrier County or Mt.
Rogers could exceed 3", but confidence in that occurring is low.
Snow showers look to continue through midday Saturday before
diminishing as the aforementioned upper level trough lifts off
to the northeast.

Temperatures across the area will be much cooler compared to
earlier in the month, as the upper level trough remains over
the region through the first half of the weekend. These lower
500mb heights combined with surface high pressure settling
directly over the region by Monday night will lead to several
nights of ideal radiational cooling with clear skies and calm
winds. These 500mb heights combined with 850mb temperatures in
the -5 to -10 degree Celsius range will keep high temperatures
5-10 degrees below normal for the Piedmont, and 15-20 degrees
below normal for locations west of the Blue Ridge. Highs each
day through the weekend will remain in the upper 40s to low 50s
in the Piedmont, with 30s and 40s for mountain locations.
Overnight lows look to fall into the 20s areawide both Saturday
and Sunday nights.

Winds will also remain elevated through the weekend, gusting to
20-25 mph today and Saturday, lowering to around 20 mph on
Sunday and becoming light by Monday as high pressure builds back
into the area. Due to these winds along with the cold
temperatures, wind chills will be in the teens/20s Saturday and
Sunday mornings. While this is not a dangerous level of cold, it
will be quite the shock to the system after the mild last week
or so. By early next week, a gradual warming trend occurs, with
highs in the 50s by Tuesday and in the 60s by Thursday with no
rain expected all week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect off and on upslope -SHRA and -SHSN in higher terrain
locations to continue through the TAF period for mountain
terminals. This is especially true for BLF and LWB, where these
conditions are expected to linger as several waves of showers
move into these terminals through the TAF period. Most terminals
east of the Blue Ridge should remain VFR through the TAF
period. MVFR restrictions will continue through the TAF period for
mountain terminals, especially BLF and LWB. BCB may see off an
on periods of MVFR restrictions through the TAF period.

Gusty West/northwest winds are expected through the forecast
period, with 20-25 knots common at most terminals through 18 UTC
today; however, these wind gusts look to diminish through the
TAF period. Wind gusts in the 10-15 knot range are forecast for
all terminals by the 00-06 UTC window on Saturday, with further
decreases forecast beyond the TAF window.



OUTLOOK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

Sunday: Improving flight categories, although restrictions will
still be possible due to lower CIGs. Gusty NW winds expected to
continue, with speeds possibly approaching 20 kts. or more.

Monday-Tuesday: No restrictions anticipated at this time as high
pressure settles over the region leading to ideal flight
conditions areawide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB