Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS61 KRNK 290006
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
806 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Maintained low clouds through night per model sounding
forecasts. Also backed off on fog formation within the TAFs due
to lingering cloudiness.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry through Friday. Cold front approaches the region Friday
night returning rain chances to the area for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry through Friday. Cold front approaches the region Friday
night returning rain chances to the area for the weekend.

Cold air advection stratocu bringing mostly cloud skies to the
mountains/foothills. Evening RNK sounding shows shallow but
near saturated layer of moisture near 800 mb... and forecast
soundings maintain this layer through the overnight. Should see
skies clear once we lose the northerly cold air advection on
Tuesday winds also diminishing for Tuesday.

For Tuesday, the Nor`easter and its associated upper level
trough that have been off the coast of New Jersey and Long
Island will finally lift north and east of the region, which
will allow for 500mb heights and upper level ridging to build
back into the region. This will return daytime highs back into
the upper 70s to low 80s for mountain locations, and upper 80s
to low 90s for Piedmont locations starting Wednesday and
continuing through the end of the work week. While temperatures
will surge to above normal values again, dewpoints look to
remain in the 40s/50s which will make the airmass feel much more
tolerable.

By Friday night, a broad upper level shortwave trough looks to
slide east through the northern Great Lakes region. This will
usher in a cold front passage late on Friday and into Saturday
morning, which looks to moderate temperatures back to near
normal to start the weekend. This frontal boundary will also
return minimal rain chances to the area. Possible moisture from
a tropical system in the eastern Pacific will eventually track
into the southeast by early next week; however, timing and
specific details of how much rainfall are still uncertain at
this time. This moisture may bring the next best widespread
chance for rainfall across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceiling may impact mountain terminals through the
overnight with VFR cloud bases east of the Blue Ridge.
Forecast soundings suggest this cloud layer will persist into
Tuesday before dissipating. As such, not as confident for fog
formation overnight. Raised vsby forecasts for BLF/BCB/LWB
accordingly.

Winds out of the northwest under 10 knots are expected to
diminish overnight and become light and variable for Tuesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Through Friday expect dry conditions and VFR. The exception
will be during each overnight, where patchy river/mountain
valley fog will remain possible, especially for LWB. Rain
chances return late Friday, which will increase the likelihood
of sub-VFR cigs/vsbys, especially west of the Blue Ridge
heading into the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PM/WP