Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS61 KRNK 141027
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
627 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small
chances of rain.


Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small
chances of rain.

Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western
mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the
bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high
pressure system will follow with its center traveling
southeastward into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air
mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the
next few days.

Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to
the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic.
Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for
upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air,
serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are
expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow
also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with
highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.


Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot
temperatures.

Mid-level ridging and low level southwesterly winds will promote a
warming and humid trend for the region next week. Following the
previous forecaster`s discussion, the warm temperatures may feel
like a shock given the relatively cool weather we have been
experiencing. High temperatures are likely to get into the
upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points climbing into the 50s and
60s. This trend is likely to persist for the first half of the
week so the public is encouraged to prepare for a shift in
weather conditions. The ending of this trend, however, is a bit
unclear. Model guidance continues to argue the existence of a
cold front that forms with a surface low early next week, but it
is still not clear how far east the front will progress. (Some
models argue it will orient itself zonally and be to our north).
The cold front`s impact will disrupt the warming trend and give
another chance of precipitation if it goes through so this
system will be monitored in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As northwest across the area today, expect VFR conditions to
remain at all terminals except BLF and LWB through the end of
the TAF period. Upslope MVFR cloud decks look to remain at BLF
and LWB through the late morning hours today. These restrictions
at BLF and LWB look to lift by the early afternoon hours as
wind directions transition from northwesterly to westerly
throughout the day.

Gusty northwest winds in the 20-30 knot range can be expected at all
mountain terminals today behind the frontal boundary. These winds
should decrease shortly after sunset this evening, with calmer winds
returning by the end of the TAF period overnight Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Surface high pressure looks to settle over the region on Friday.
This will maintain VFR conditions at all terminals. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms could effect BLF/LWB/BCB each day this weekend as
the flow becomes more southerly/southwesterly.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...EB