Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS61 KRNK 280714
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
214 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.

Uncertainty still with system early next week, but looks to bring at
least minor winter weather impacts to the area. Initial snow and ice
amounts have trended down. A period of sleet is possible Tuesday
morning before transitioning to freezing rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mild weather this weekend, with today being the nicest day.

2) Wintry weather possible early next week, though uncertainty
remains high.

3) Warmth and continued rain chances Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild weather this weekend, with today being the
nicest day.

Widespread stratus and fog are in place this morning, but should
clear out later this morning. For today, expect light westerly
winds, sunny skies, and increasing heights, leading to very nice
weather and temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s
west of the Blue Ridge, and the mid to upper 60s to the east.

On Sunday, a slow moving cold front backdoors into the area,
bringing widespread cloud cover and northwest winds with it.
There could be some light rain for the Greenbrier Valley
early; otherwise we will remain dry. The incoming cooler and
drier air mass and accompanying clouds will notch temperatures
down a bit for the mountains Sunday, into the low to upper 50s,
while readings for the Blue Ridge east will be in the upper 50s
to even lower 70s for the Piedmont, where the CAA will be slower
to arrive.

Sunday night we will dip below freezing for much of the area,
with readings around 25 to 32F for the mountains, and the
Piedmont staying in the low to mid 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Wintry Weather Possible early next week, though
uncertainty remains high.

Models continue to struggle on the specifics of an upcoming
system  early next week. A surface high pressure system will
move to our northeast and wedge into our mountains. This cold
air damming will be brief as the surface high moves quickly into
the Atlantic and the wedge breaks down by Tuesday.
Nevertheless, it will be relatively cold Monday afternoon with
temperatures flirting around freezing. Precipitation may arrive
around this same time thanks to a messy frontal system stretched
across the eastern CONUS. While the CAD is a classic set up for
some freezing rain/wintry mix precipitation, there is still a
lot of uncertainty on the impacts. Part of the issue is
disagreement on temperatures at the surface and aloft which will
play a critical role in precipitation type. At the moment,
conditions look to be around freezing at the surface with a warm
nose around 850mb, but there are discrepancies on how humid the
lower part of the atmosphere will be. Referencing the previous
forecast, drier air could assist in evaporative cooling, but if
it is too dry, precipitation may not make it to the ground or
not result in any significant accumulation. In addition, the
behavior of a mid-level trough passing eastward to our north
leading up to the event may influence the path of energy heading
towards us. Depending on the timing of this approaching
vorticity and the northern trough`s speed and magnitude,
precipitation may either mostly miss the Mid-Atlantic or hit it
head on. Everything is still on the table and this system will
be heavily monitored in future forecasts.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmth and continued rain chances Thursday into
the weekend.

On Thursday, another couple areas of short wave energy move
through SW flow aloft through the end of the week. This will
keep widespread chances of rain in the forecast. Both days look
quite warm despite the rain, with highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Fog and low ceilings linger through the early morning hours at
all terminals, with MVFR to LIFR restrictions expected 13 to
15Z. MVFR ceilings may linger longer at DAN through 16Z.

Winds will generally remain easterly and light and variable
this morning, becoming westerly at 8kts gusting to about 18kts
for late morning into this evening. Winds become light once
again this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR through Sunday, outside of morning MVFR or lower stratus and
fog at BLF and LWB. Widespread rain and wintry precipitation
chances increase again Sunday night through Wednesday, bringing
sub-VFR conditions.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/SH
AVIATION...SH