Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS61 KRNK 301036
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
636 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Dry conditions continue to look more favorable into the weekend
and early next week. Increasing widespread rainfall chances by
mid/late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm weather is forecast through next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wet next week with best chance of rain
starting mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:  Warm weather is forecast through next week.

Dry weather will continue across the area through early next
week. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging look to
remain the dominant features across the area for the next
several days. A dry cold front will pass over the region later
today, but not before afternoon temperatures warm into the mid
to upper 70s.

Cloudy conditions moving over the area from an upstream system
will lead to cooler temperatures on Saturday for Halloween and
Trick or Treating festivities. Cooler temperatures will linger
through Sunday, however these temperatures will still be above
normal for late Oct/early Nov.

Heights build again by the middle of next week in advance of a
deep trough moving through the central United States. Although
increasing cloud cover is likely, increasing southerly flow will
offset this, allowing temperatures to climb again to well above
normal through late next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wet late next week with best chance of
rain starting mid-week.

All models have officially backed off on any widespread
precipitation chances for the region early next week. High
pressure will hold strong over the Mid-Atlantic, keeping most
rainfall chances confined to the southeast states. Cannot rule
out a few stray showers given increased southerly flow, but
overall the best forcing and moisture will remain well to the
south.

Guidance remains in agreement that a deep upper trough will dig
south into the Gulf states by midweek, then move over the mid-
Atlantic and into New England by late week. There also appears
to be strong support for a much more favorable environment for
moisture to be pulled north ahead of this aforementioned upper
level trough into the region from the Gulf and Atlantic. While
it is still too soon to discuss specifics of this system, it
will likely be the next system to provide any meaningful
widespread precipitation to the region. Timing and specifics on
this system are still in question.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR through the TAF period other than some isolated
early morning at LWB/LYH until sunrise. Approaching front and
drier airmass does not favor as much widespread fog development
this morning...so have kept any BR/FG out of the TAFs except at
LWB/LYH.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front later today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Cloud cover will steadily increase over the weekend, though ceiling
bases will hold AOA 10kft, preserving favorable VFR flight
conditions through Sunday. By the middle of next week, the upper-
level flow pattern will amplify significantly, spawning a sizable
storm system across the central continental United States whose
eventual impacts on the local region will remain to be seen.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with
above normal temperatures forecast for Friday and near normal
temperatures over the weekend. The next appreciable chance for
rainfall looks to be the middle of next week. Models have backed
off on any meaningful precipitation until then.

Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to
burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above
normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Northwest transport winds on Friday will lead to the best day
for ventilation and mixing.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/EB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM