Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS61 KRNK 161745
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
145 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday have trended lower.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record heat early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Some afternoon shower chances Sunday through
Tuesday for the mountains. Widespread rain showers with some
storms Wednesday into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler temperatures with continued rain chances
late next week into Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record heat early next week.

A 500mb ridge will build over the southeast US, and heights
increase over the region. Surface high pressure will move east,
and flow will become more south to southwest, bringing in
warmer and more moist air. Thus, a warming trend will ensue, and
afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees higher each
day. By the start of the work week, afternoon highs will be in
the 80s in the west, and 90s in the Piedmont. See the Climate
Section below for the daily records at our climate sites during
this unseasonably warm stretch.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Some afternoon shower chances Sunday through
Tuesday for the mountains. Widespread rain showers with some
storms Wednesday into Thursday.

With the greater moisture and warmer temperatures in the region,
there are daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for
the end of the weekend and first half of the work week. These will
be mostly terrain based, since there is not a strong synoptic
feature to drive more organized convection.

However, by Wednesday, a cold front will move into the central
Appalachians from the Midwest. Increased shear ahead of and along
the front, combined with the ongoing heat and humidity, will lead to
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms by Wednesday
afternoon. Some of the storms could become strong to severe, but
confidence in severe thunderstorms is low at this time, since the
better upper level dynamics will track farther north of the area.
Rain showers look to linger into Thursday morning as the front moves
to the southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler temperatures with continued rain chances
late next week into Memorial Day weekend.

The front slows down across the southeast by the end of next week,
while a surface high builds across New England, and could wedge
against the eastern side of the mountains. Moisture around the
front and northeasterly flow will keep rain chances and clouds
in the forecast heading into Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures
will drop by about 10 to 15 degrees areawide by Thursday, and
then another few degrees by Friday. Current forecast has highs
in the 70s by the end of the week, but it is worth noting that
the NBM has a 10 degree spread in high temperatures from the
25th to 75th percentiles, so confidence in temperatures late
next week is low. That being said, in wedge patterns,
temperatures typically tend towards the lower end of guidance,
so would not be surprised to see temperatures unable to escape
the 60s Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the weekend. Mostly sunny today,
with some passing mid to high clouds. Cloud cover will increase
somewhat later today, but ceilings will remain VFR, then clearing
after 06Z Sunday. There are low chances for isolated to scattered
showers and possibly thunderstorms north of Interstate 64 as a
system moves eastward through the OH Valley, and so would more
likely impact KLWB than the other area terminals. However, there
is some uncertainty in how far east the showers and storms will
hold together, and so given the low probabilities, have opted
to leave out of the TAF at this time. Could also see some patchy
fog for KLWB and KBLF with increasing moisture in the region
for a few hours Sunday morning.

Southwest to westerly winds today, 10 knots or lower, could see the
occasional gust closer to 20 knots. Winds decrease for tonight, then
pick up again Sunday afternoon, but again less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through
the beginning of next week. Chances for afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms across the mountains increase Sunday afternoon and
continue through Tuesday. More widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the passage of a cold
front. Thunderstorm probabilities wane during the nighttime hours,
but rain could continue into Thursday morning. Rain chances and
cloud cover linger through the end of the week.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical
outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have
been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is
being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our current forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     94 in 1962  69 in 1996       92
Lynchburg   93 in 1911  68 in 1894       92
Danville    93 in 1974  69 in 2015       93
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 2015       86
Blacksburg  88 in 1911  61 in 2018       88


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     96 in 1962  69 in 2022       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022       92
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962       94
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977       86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938       89

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...RCS