Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS61 KRNK 080233
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
933 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today has been trimmed back to
now only include portions of southeast WV and southwest VA. Have
reduced thunder chances for much of the area this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and possible storms later this evening through the
overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts most likely hazard with any
thunderstorms.


2. Active weather possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and possible storms later this evening
through the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts most likely hazard
with any thunderstorms.

Warm front has pushed to the northeast and low stratus from this
morning as retreated farther into central and northern VA. The
cold front is currently analyzed over the Midwest and surface
low over the Great Lakes, placing the local forecast area
solidly in the warm sector, and temperatures have already risen
into the upper 60s to mid 70s along and west of the Blue Ridge,
where there has been sunshine for most of the day so far.
Moisture continues to surge northward into the area via
southerly flow, bringing 60+ degree dewpoints into the NC
Piedmont and VA Southside so far this afternoon. The combination
of increasing moisture, daytime heating and orographic lift
will spark some pre- frontal showers and thunderstorms along
the spine of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. The more organized
line of storms accompanying the cold front, reaching from
central OH all the way to MS at this time, will eventually
reach the Appalachians. Timing has trended slightly later, most
high res guidance has the front and line of storms arriving
after sunset and continuing into the overnight. The line will
weaken as it crosses the mountains, which looks to be by
midnight tonight. The loss of daytime instability leads to lower
confidence in the potential for storms to become severe.
However, low level shear looks favorable between 30 to 40 knots,
and deep layer shear increases with the passage of the front,
so cannot rule out the threat for damaging winds with any storms
that are able to strengthen.

Rainfall amounts will be between a tenth to half an inch, and
with the recent dry conditions, most locations will be able to
handle the QPF. That being said, any training of storms or
heavier rain showers could lead to an isolated flooding threat,
mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

The front does look to slow down as it reaches the eastern US,
and becomes more east to west oriented, so could see showers
linger in the southern half of the forecast area into Sunday
afternoon, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the VA
Southside by the afternoon with sufficient instability.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Active weather possible by the middle of next
week.

The forecast for next week has had a considerable change due to the
behavior of a mid-level cutoff low. Previous forecasts have
mentioned this cutoff low over Baja California straggling eastward,
but recent model guidance argues that this low will actually be
absorbed into the main westerly flow. The zonal flow to the north
will start to bend southward and towards the cutoff low and form a
trough as a result. The cutoff low joins this trough and amplifies
it but some of its energy remains just ahead of the trough as it
progresses east. A surface low over the Great Lakes forms,
strengthens, and as a result, the trough begins to negatively tilt.
The surface low will also send a long cold front through the area
late next week and provide another chance of precipitation.

Specifics on hazards related to this system get foggy for a few
reasons. The first issue is timing. Thunderstorms are likely
with this event but it is too soon to know if they will be
severe. The abnormally warm weather is expected to continue with
highs in the 70s and 80s, but these storms will be quite
underwhelming if they arrive during the nighttime where
stability will be absent. Another issue is wind shear. The
combination of the cutoff low and trough will create a very
strong jet at 500mb with winds up to 120 kts as well as a jet at
850mb of 40-50 kts. Model guidance shows bulk shear could get
as high as 100 kts which would tear any storms apart and prevent
proper storm development and organization. The piece of the
cutoff low that is ahead of the trough may result in a better
wind shear environment, but again, confidence on this timing
with the front is very low. The Storm Prediction Center has
noted that while we are not "outlooked" for any severe weather
at this point, they are aware "some severe potential could
persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region..." by Thursday.

One final bit regarding this system is that the air behind the front
will be very cold. Some precipitation may wrap around the front and
result in upslope snow for western mountainous areas. Once again,
confidence is low as this is also dependent on the timing of the
precipitation with temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cigs have been patchy and scattered for most of the afternoon
and evening. While multiple obs report low clouds under 3kft,
coverage isn`t dense enough to form a cloud deck. As such, VFR
conditions are predominant tonight, and will be for much of the
night. As a line of showers moves through the area tonight,
expect cigs drop to MVFR/IFR levels, and likely stay there much
of Sunday as showers linger to end the weekend. Rain could
reduce vsby at times, especially in any thunderstorms tonight,
as a few cells have exhibited characteristics of 1"+ rain rates.

Winds of 10-15kts out of the west will turn to become westerly
winds by Sunday morning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR conditions continue due to showers and possibly some
thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon with a cold frontal
passage, but decrease by Sunday evening. The best chance for
thunder on Sunday will be at DAN and LYH in the afternoon.
Expect light SW winds until the frontal passage Sunday, then
light WNW winds prevail. A slight chance of showers remain
possible Monday afternoon, though confidence is low. Additional
chances for sub- VFR as rain arrives Tuesday afternoon and again
Wednesday. Gusty winds are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday
behind the next system. Nightly chances for fog will also be
expected, as warm, humid air continues to surge into the
region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Saturday 03/07/2026
Site  MaxT Year  HiMin Year  MaxForecast  MinForecast
KBLF    75   1921  56   1961    74        56
KDAN    82   1961  56   1961    80        63
KLYH    81   2022   58  1956    78        62
KROA    83   2009  62   1956    79        62
KRNK    75   1921  48   2024    76        58

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/CG
AVIATION...AS/VFJ
CLIMATE...SH