Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS61 KRNK 210552
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
152 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Update.

This weekend continues to trend warmer ahead of an approaching
frontal system on Monday.

A series of fronts to impact the region through next week. Each
front featuring a warming trend ahead of it, then a subsequent
cool down behind the front. Rain possible with each frontal
passage.

There is an increased fire potential for Monday for areas that
do not receive rain Sunday and Monday morning. Gusty post-
frontal winds, RH values dropping to 15 to 25%, and warm
temperatures may increase the fire danger, specifically for the
Piedmont of VA and NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Extreme warmth fades from north to south Monday, but today
and tomorrow look especially toasty.

2) The next chances of showers should come during Sunday night
into Monday and also later in the week. Increasing fire
potential Monday for the Piedmont.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Extreme warmth fades from north to south Monday,
but today and tomorrow especially look toasty.

Strong ridging over northern Mexico remains blocked, but it
will modify Sunday as fast zonal flow suppresses the top of the
ridge to the south. The Mid Atlantic and much of the U.S. will
be in fast and convergent NW to WNW flow through most of the
work week. This will keep periods of clouds, showers, and
occasional thunderstorms in the forecast.

While a sagging front and accompanying clouds will keep
temperatures in check today (upper 60s to low 70s for the
mountains, mid 70s for the Piedmont), tomorrow we should see
mostly sunny skies with some passing cirrus.

This along with SW winds/warm air advection at the surface,
compressional warming ahead of a cold front, and 850mb
temperatures increasing to 13 to 15C will support very warm
temperatures Sunday. Expect temperatures over 20 degrees above
normal, with highs in the mid to 70s to low 80s for the
mountains, and in the mid 80s for the Piedmont. DESI shows only
a 30% chance of any part of the Piedmont warming above 85
degrees, so I did lower the temperatures just slightly.

All this is supported by NAEFS 850mb temperatures anomalies of
2 to 3 standard deviations. Please see below for local records
which may be in jeopardy.

A trough will settle south Sunday night into Monday, pushing a
elongated cold front through the region. This will knock down
temperatures back closer to normal for the mountains Monday
while the Piedmont hangs on to 70s for one more day. High
pressure settles in for mid week, with temperatures hovering
around normal.


Station Record Hi Max Forecast MaxT
Roanoke 84 in 1938          86
Lynchburg 90 in 1907          84
Danville 88 in 1968          86
Bluefield81 in 2012          75
Blacksburg 85 in 1907          80




KEY MESSAGE 2: The next chances of showers should come during
Sunday night into Monday and also later in the week. Increasing
fire potential Monday for the Piedmont.

A weak cold front will exit offshore later today, but the
frontal boundary may get stuck across North Carolina and spark
a slight chance of showers in the northwest North Carolina
mountains before dissipating by Saturday night. High pressure
will bring dry conditions through Sunday afternoon. Another cold
front should enter by Sunday night with the next notable chance
of showers. A rumble of thunder seems possible in southeast
West Virginia, but instability to the east appears too limited
to maintain convection any further. The shower activity should
move eastward and wane by midday Monday.

As the cold front exits on Sunday evening, a gusty northwest
wind should arrive. In general gusts up to 40 mph are possible
for Sunday night and Monday along the higher elevations. Fire
weather concerns may arise by Monday afternoon if the
downsloping wind coincides with dry fuels that do not receive
the showers from Sunday night into Monday morning. The wind
should decrease by Monday night as high pressure returns. After
a dry Tuesday, there is some model disagreement about the timing
and track of the next low pressure system approaching from the
Great Lakes. Nevertheless, the chance of showers should rise
again during the latter half of the week as the cold front
approaches the Appalachian Mountains. The frontal passage may
take place by Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
even though an upper level shortwave is currently pushing a few
light showers (thunder has ended) near the LWB and LYH
terminals. These rain showers and LLWS from the upper level
weather system, mostly affecting the other 4 TAF sites in the
mountains, will linger through the 10-12 UTC time frame.

Drier air in the lower levels has allowed ceilings to stay VFR,
and this should continue with any ceilings being above 4 kft.
All shower activity should be out of the region by daybreak. A
residual scattered to broken upper level cloud deck looks to
settle across SW Virginia through the early morning and mid
morning hours before clearer skies take over after the 18 UTC
timeframe for all terminals.

Winds will generally remain out of the west/northwest through
the TAF period, and are expected to remain light at around 5
knots or less.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal system will drop in from the north Sunday night into
Monday, bringing another chance for rain and sub-VFR conditions
mainly to the mountains. Expect gusty NW winds Monday behind the
front, with gusts between 20-30 kts throughout the area. Drier
weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increasing fire potential Monday for the Piedmont.

As a cold front exits the region Sunday evening, gusty
northwest winds should arrive. In general, gusts up to 40 mph
are possible for Sunday night and Monday along the higher
elevations. Fire weather concerns may arise by Monday afternoon
if the downsloping wind coincides with dry fuels that do not
receive precipitation with the front Sunday night into Monday
morning. The wind should decrease by Monday night as high
pressure returns. We are currently outlooked by SPC for Monday
with a 40% critical probability outline over the Piedmont. Also,
the Southern Area Coordination Center has highlighted the NC
Piedmont with a high risk, where gusts of 30 to 50 mph could
interact with "escaped Helene debris burns".

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...PW/SH