Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

537
FXUS61 KRNK 270647
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Cold Warning for all counties west of the Blue Ridge and
Cold Weather Advisory in the east remain in effect through this
morning. An additional Cold Weather Advisory will be needed
tonight for the Alleghany Highlands and Greenbrier.

In general, cold weather with below normal temperatures will
persist the remainder of week. Some hints are additional snow
over the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Dangerously cold weather tonight through this morning and
again tonight across the Alleghany Highlands and Greenbrier.

2) More mountain snow showers tonight and again Wednesday night
with below normal temperatures.

3) Chances of snow have increased for Friday and
Saturday due to a low pressure system off the North Carolina coast,
and more Arctic air may bring dangerously low wind chills this
upcoming weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areawide dangerously cold weather through this
morning and again tonight across the Alleghany Highlands and
Greenbrier.

An arctic airmass has settled into the region, with many
temperatures across the mountains now in the single digits and
mid to low teens east of the mountains. Winds still remain
elevated, gusting in the 20 to 30mph range, which is resulting
in wind chill values this morning from 10 to 20 below over the
higher elevations. Winds have weakened a bit east of the
mountains, but still enough for wind chills around 0. Afternoon
highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with the mountains
likely failing to reach 32F today, but areas across the Piedmont
may just surpass 32F for a few hours. More sun today should aid
in some melting, even in areas that do not reach freezing. As a
result of this, black ice will be a much larger threat tonight
as lows fall back into the teens and single digits.

Some wind chills will be sub-zero again tonight, but mainly
across the highest ridges, but a little more widespread across
the Alleghany Highlands and Greenbrier. Will cover this
potential with a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...More mountain snow showers tonight
and again Wednesday night with below normal temperatures.

Several reinforcing shots of cold air are expected through the
week with the passage of additional short wave troughs within
the northern stream. These troughs will be primarily dry east of
the mountains, but do think enough moisture will be available
tonight and again Wednesday night for a dusting to an inch of
snow across the mountains, especially for areas along and just
west of the Appalachian Divide. This means western Greenbrier
down through areas west of I-77 and into the mountains of NW NC
may will have several more opportunities for light
orographically enhanced accumulations of snow this week. Some
snow showers may spill over and could make it as far east as the
Blue Ridge.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Chances of snow have increased for Friday and
Saturday due to a low pressure system off the North Carolina coast,
and more Arctic air may bring dangerously low wind chills this
upcoming weekend.

The models have come into better agreement with depicting a low
pressure system developing off the North Carolina coast during
Friday night into Saturday. There are still some inconsistencies
with the exact track of this coastal system due to subtle
disagreements involving a shortwave trough diving southward during
this timeframe. This trough should deepen and become a closed upper
level low somewhere over western South Carolina. The natural
baroclinic zone between the Arctic air to the west and the warmer
waters of the Gulf Stream to the east will help to rapidly deepen a
surface low. Some moisture may leak northwestward towards the
Appalachian Mountains as this surface low develops, which has
prompted a growing chance of snow during Friday and Saturday. The
snow may taper to snow showers by Sunday as the coastal system moves
away towards the northeast. It is far too early to project any
snowfall amounts due to the aforementioned inconsistencies, and the
placement of where the deformation zone sets up between the closed
upper low and the surface low still remains in doubt.

In addition, Arctic air amidst a frigid northwest flow should arrive
for the upcoming weekend behind the coastal system. Wind gusts may
get close to advisory criteria along the southern Blue Ridge by
Saturday night into Sunday, but wind chill values will become the
most significant concern. Based on these strong winds and low
temperatures falling into the single digits for most locations and
possibly below zero along the higher elevations, wind chill values
could fall towards -5 to -10 degrees in the Piedmont and -15 to -20
degrees along and west of the Blue Ridge. Even wind chill values
down to -25 degrees may be possible for the higher peaks of western
Greenbrier County and also for Mount Rogers. This Arctic plunge may
begin to moderate during the early part of the next workweek as the
coastal system moves away towards the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Persistent MVFR cigs, along with snow showers across the western
mountains. Light snow should come to an end by daybreak, but
some stratus could linger into late morning for BLF/LWB. Should
see nearly widespread VFR by the afternoon. Upslope stratus and
snow showers return again tonight and sub-VFR likely again for
BLF/LWB, with some MVFR cigs extending as far east as BCB.

Winds remain elevated from the northwest across the higher
elevations. This will continue into tonight, with a slight
uptick in winds as the next upper disturbance pushes across the
region.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A couple weak systems may bring light snow/stratus to the mountains
most days this week.  This may bring MVFR CIGs and VSBYs at times
to BLF and LWB, possibly BCB. Winds remain elevated into
Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ032>035-
     043>047-058-059.
NC...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/PW
AVIATION...BMG