Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS61 KRNK 061054
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
554 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Storm Warning remain in effect for western Greenbrier
County WV Friday morning through Saturday morning for heavy
snow.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Friday
afternoon into early Saturday for the Alleghany Highlands, into
the rest of southeast WV, far southwest VA and the NC High
Country for snow.

A High Wind Warning has replaced a High Wind Watch for portions
of the mountain empire from Friday night into Saturday evening
for wind gusts up to 60 mph.

A Wind Advisory has replaced portions of the High Wind Watch for
areas adjacent to the Blue Ridge, and across portions of SE West
Virginia and SW Virginia from Friday night into Saturday evening
for wind gusts up to 50 mph.


An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for Greenbrier and Bath
counties Friday night into Saturday for wind chills 15 to 25
below zero.

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the remainder of the
mountain empire counties west of the Blue Ridge Friday night
into Saturday for wind chills of 5 to 14 degrees below zero.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating snow Friday into Saturday morning.

2) Strong northwest winds Friday night into Saturday areawide.

3) Very cold wind chills Friday night into Saturday.

4) Warming trend next week with some small chances of
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Accumulating snow Friday into Saturday.

Strong front arrives today with a reinforcing shot of colder
air. An upper level shortwave is expected to push across in the
afternoon and into tonight, with strong cold advection and good
upper level forcing for ascent. There are indications for a few
heavier snow showers/squalls that will push into our WV/far SW
VA and possibly NC mountains late this afternoon into the
evening. Models/ensembles have brought an uptick in QPF over the
mountains with increasing snow to liquid ratios which should
result in higher snow accumulations.

Confidence continues to remain high that 5" + will fall in
western Greenbrier County, which is warning criteria. Generally
looking at 4 to 10 inches. Further south and east 1 to locally 6
inches will be possible. Snowfall could be higher where squalls
occur and the possibility of expanding the current Winter Storm
Warning may still occur; however, confidence in reaching warning
criteria for additional portions of SE West Virginia and SW
Virginia is moderate at this time. The snow actually may begin
as rain east of the mountains but 8h temps drop sharply so
thinking rain changing to snow by later in the afternoon/evening
before ending east of the mountains as the main vort/shortwave
pushes east. Could see a dusting to an inch east of the Blue
Ridge. Snow showers and flurries will likely linger into
Saturday across our WV mountains and possibly east to the I-81
corridor given the arctic air.

Key Message 2: Strong northwest winds Friday night into Saturday
areawide.

Northwest winds behind the frontal passage this afternoon are
likely to surge into the 45 to 60 kts range by tonight, and
into Saturday where 6 hr pressure rises of 6 to 12 mb occurs.
These pressure rises combined with with a forecast 60-70 knot
850mb northwest jet will lead to the aforementioned wind gusts
across the area. Forecast soundings indicate mixing up to 50kts
along the Blue Ridge potential and this event looks favorable
for widespread high winds along and west of the Blue Ridge. High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued for areas
that will likely see the strongest wind gusts across the area.

On the positive side, most of the snow that falls will be a dry
snow, so not looking at a lot of loading on tree branches when
the winds arrive. On the negative side, with the weaker trees
in the area from previous storms, some will likely fall, leading
to potential power outages and road closures.

Strongest wind gusts look to be in the early morning hours of
Saturday through midday Saturday, before gradually weakening
into Saturday evening.

Key Message 3: Very cold wind chills Friday night into Saturday.

As usual, with the arctic blast and wind plus snow cover, temps
will drop again into the teens to single digits Friday night.
An extreme cold warning has been issued for Greenbrier and Bath
counties for 15 to 24 degrees below zero, and cold weather
advisories have been issued for the rest of the mountains as
wind chills are forecast to drop to around 5 to 14 below zero
Saturday morning.


Key Message 4: Warming trend next week with some small chances of
precipitation.

The following week is looking to be relatively warm and quiet
compared to the past couple of weeks. Ridging is expected to build
over the southeastern United States and 500mb heights are expected
to rise and support a warming trend. A cutoff low over Baja
California still looks to transition into a shortwave over the
southern United States and assist with the ridging pattern over our
area. Dew points and air temperatures are forecast to increase. Dew
points will likely rise into the 30s and 40s and high temperatures
may get up into the 40s and 50s. Specifics and timing of the warmest
days are a little questionable this far out. Around the middle of
next week, a long frontal system connected by low pressure systems
may potentially provide some precipitation chances our way. The
behavior of the associated lows will play a significant role in how
the temperature changes and how the precipitation chances evolve. As
long as the warming trend stays, any precipitation is likely to be
rain across the area.

One side note is the above freezing temperatures will quickly reduce
the remaining snow on the ground. Flooding due to rapid melting is
not guaranteed but will be monitored especially if it intercepts the
timing of the arrival of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions are currently present at all terminals; however,
MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs are expected to push into BLF and LWB
shortly after 12 UTC today as a strong cold front leads to
moderate snow showers and possible squalls pushing through the
region today. These showers/squalls will push east through the
late morning and early afternoon hours to impact BCB, ROA, LYH,
and DAN with MVFR to IFR restrictions from rain/snow showers and
falling ceilings. CIGs will continue to degrade to IFR and
possibly brief LIFR conditions at all terminals through 00 UTC.
Beyond 00 UTC, LYH, DAN, and ROA look to return to VFR
conditions. BCB, BLF, and LWB will likely linger under MVFR to
IFR restrictions through the mid morning and early afternoon
hours on Saturday. Light snow showers may also linger at these
locations through Saturday afternoon. Behind the aforementioned
cold front, northwest winds will be very gusty, with gusts at
times up to 30-50 knots at terminals. LLWS also looks likely for
mountain terminals to include BLF, LWB, and BCB as a 850mb jet
of 60-70 knots is expected to remain over the region through
Saturday. These wind gusts look to diminish by Saturday evening
as high pressure builds into the region, and as the LLJ departs
the region.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions look to return to all terminals for Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ007-009>011-015-018>020.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for VAZ015>020-022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ007-009>019-022>024.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     VAZ007-009>014-032>035-043>045.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ020.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NCZ001-002-018.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     NCZ003-004-019-020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ042>044-507.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for WVZ508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ042>044.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ042>044-507.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     WVZ507-508.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB/WP
AVIATION...EB