Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS61 KRNK 061748
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
148 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Weather pattern supports daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms with greatest coverage over the mountains and
adjacent foothills.

18z aviation is updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of this week
and into upcoming weekend. Risk for excessive rainfall is
marginal. Greatest chance for rainfall will be over the
mountains and adjacent foothills. Lower chance for piedmont.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather will persist through the rest
of this week and into upcoming weekend. Risk for excessive
rainfall is marginal. Greatest chance for rainfall will be over
the mountains and adjacent foothills. Lower chance for piedmont.


Large scale flow aloft features a subtropical
Atlantic Ridge, a.k.a. Bermuda High off the southeast Atlantic
Coast and a broad upper level trough over the north central
CONUS. This configuration will maintain a south to southwesterly
fetch of deep layer moisture advecting northward into the
central Appalachians through the upcoming weekend and quite
possibly all of next week. With no sign of any main feature or
wave traversing across the area, the forcing mechanism for
convection will largely be daytime heating and orographic lift
keeping the greatest chances across the mountains and adjacent
foothills each day. High PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range will
support hydrometeor loading within showers and storms to be
efficient rain producers and allow for isolated flash flooding
potential as well. See the hydrology section below for more
details.

The upper trough to our northwest will occasionally steer a
short wave across the Ohio Valley, of which may have downstream
implications for a round of stronger, potentially somewhat more
organized storms. Trying to pick this out of the noise is a
timing and placement challenge however with predictability too
low to highlight with any confidence. In general using a wide
paint brush to highlight the pops the next several days, with
greatest confidence across the mountains where orographic lift
and differential heating will have best chance to provide low
level lift. As for temperatures, will be going with persistence
with highs mainly in the 80s...basically near the seasonal
normal for highs and 3 to 5 degrees above normal for the
overnight lows, the elevated dewpoints acting as a floor for
overnight lows.

Best storm chances today will be across the higher terrain along
a lee trough. Water vapor indicates drier air across the
Piedmont of VA/NC so this may inhibit storm development,
especially with a lack of any forcing mechanism.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers with greatest
coverage over the mountains through this evening. Should lessen
after sunset. Some overnight valley fog possible again,
especially in locations that receive rain this afternoon.

Winds south/southwest at around 10 knots today...calmer again
tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend
with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with
greatest concentration within the mountain valleys.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the next several
days. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a
moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week.
Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular
location.

PWAT values expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00"
range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient
rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban
areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly
susceptible to flash flooding.

Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across
the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits
across the Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG
HYDROLOGY...PM