Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS61 KRNK 041046
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
646 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Storms will be mainly confined to the mountains later today.

Slight increase in rain amounts on Sunday.

Cooler temperatures will persist through most of next week.
Sub-freezing temperatures becoming more likely.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures today. Afternoon thunderstorms
possible, mainly across mountain locations.


2. A pattern shift keeps dry weather in place and cools temperatures
back to around normal beginning late Sunday, with frost/freeze
potential through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures today. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms mainly across mountain locations.

Strong high pressure will continue to remain anchored over
Bermuda through this evening, which will maintain its influence
over the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states. This
surface high pressure in combination with an upper level ridge
situated generally over the same area will maintain well above
normal afternoon highs today.

Enhanced convergence in the surface flow ahead of the
approaching cold front combined with a pre-frontal trough
pushing through NW North Carolina/eastern Tennessee, and
increased instability across the area will lead to scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances across mountain locations
during the afternoon and evening hours.

Lack of forcing will prevent widespread severe concerns, but a
few stronger storms could pose a localized small hail and
damaging wind threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A pattern shift keeps dry weather in place and cools
temperatures back to around normal beginning late Sunday, with
frost/freeze potential through the middle of next week.

Cooler air will begin to fill in from Canada and spread across the
Mid-Atlantic behind the FROPA Sunday. Despite the cooldown,
temperatures will only fall to around normal for this time of year.
Highs on Monday/Tuesday will be in the 50s/60s, with lows Monday and
Tuesday mornings in the mid to upper 30s for the mountains, with low
40s in the Piedmont. The cooler weather will persist for most of the
week due to a pattern change, as strong high pressure from Canada
dominates. The high moves south into the Great Lakes Region by late
Tuesday, causing strong northeasterly flow to wedge in place east of
the Appalachian Mountains for midweek. By Wednesday, highs will be
in the 50s area-wide, though temperatures may be lowered further,
depending on the orientation and strength of the wedge. Overnight
lows midweek will also be colder, in the mid 20s to low 30s. Due to
the growing season starting this Sunday, April 5th, in the Piedmont,
the cold temperatures could cause some frost/freeze headlines to be
issued in the coming days as sensitive vegetation could be impacted.

The other big story of next week will be the lack of rainfall. No
precipitation is forecast for the entire week after the front moves
through this Sunday. Models indicate it could be mid April or later
before another chance at a widespread wetting rainfall. Combined
with the growing season beginning, this could cause some drought
concerns going forward, considering most of our area is already in a
moderate to severe drought.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly VFR expected through tonight, but increasing sub-VFR by
early Sunday.

A few thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly confined to
areas west of the Blue Ridge. Have opted for VCTS during the
afternoon at BLF/LWB. Gusty winds and heavy the main threat with
any storm.

Prefrontal SSW winds will increase through the day. Gusts by the
afternoon into the 15 to 20kt range, with occasional higher
gusts. Gusts gradually weaken by sunset, but winds remain
sustained around 10kts into the overnight hours.

Sub-VFR likely early Sunday morning with the passage of a cold
front. Rain with a few embedded thunderstorms possible before
daybreak for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge..

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds shift to the northwest behind the front on Sunday evening
and become increasingly gusty. A few gusts near 30kts possible
in the higher terrain through Monday. Strong high pressure
builds across the region Monday night and a prolonged period of
VFR through the middle/late next week likely.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/EB/JCB
AVIATION...BMG