Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS61 KRNK 290743
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
343 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Today: Greater coverage of fog and stratus this morning with
impacts to aviation. Dense fog is present in the Greenbrier
Valley and IFR cigs along crest of Blue Ridge.

This Weekend: Lowered rain probability Sunday/Monday. Initial
wave looks like a dud. May have to wait until the middle or end
of next week for appreciable threat of rain.

Continue to maintain a fire weather section for those concerned
with burning conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Dry weather is forecast through Sunday, trending wet next week
with best chance of rain mid-week. Friday will be the warmest
day of this week. Mild and dry for Halloween.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Easterly low level flow off the Atlantic is resulting in
considerable cloud cover, mist and fog along and east of the
Appalachians this morning. This shallow layer of moisture is
expected to dissipate, leaving us with mostly sunny skies this
afternoon under dry High Pressure.

The next several days will continue to remain rather quiet
weather wise, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure
remaining fixed over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. A
front crossing the Great Lakes will fade and lose its identity
as it passes over the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight. Its passage
will bring winds around to the west-northwest for Friday, but no
significant airmass change. If anything the west wind will
provide a boost in temperature with downslope adiabatic warming
helping to push the temperatures well into the 70s Friday with
urban areas east of the mountains reaching 80 deg F.

For Halloween, upper level clouds look to push into the region
from the next system that looks to move across the continental
U.S.(CONUS). This should bring temperatures back down to near
normal. Regardless, dry weather will continue through the end
of the month leading to pleasant trick-or-treat weather for all
the ghosts and goblins.

Uncertainty continues to develop with forecast Sunday and Monday
for what had been looking like a potential rain maker. Latest
00Z GFS and ECMWF have trended much drier with respect to the
initial southern stream wave early in the week and now focusing
on a mid or late week opportunity for wetting rainfall.

With the exception of some mid-upper level cloud cover, both
the GFS and ECMWF keep the region predominantly dry through next
Tuesday as high pressure to our north looks to maintain enough
dry air across the region within the low levels to prevent
precipitation from falling. Any threat before then looks minimal
and mainly confined to areas west of the Blue Ridge.

By the end of next week, there appears to be decent ensemble
support in the GEFS and EPS ensembles for an amplified upper
level trough digging south into the Gulf states before lifting
to the northeast through the region by the Thursday/Friday
timeframe. Timing and specifics on this system are still in
question; however, widespread rainfall may be on tap for parts
of the region for the end of next week as this system evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Areas of fog and stratus across the area this morning with
impacts from the mountains to the coast. Widespread sub-VFR
conditions were observed, and will likely persist until mid
morning until the sun promotes mixing and dissipation of
conditions. Expecting all terminals to transition to VFR for
the afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight and Friday. Exception
will be a period of fog in the mountain valleys between 08Z-13Z
Friday with impacts mainly to LWB and BCB.

Winds today and tonight are expected to remain light and
variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday is expected to be VFR with little or no cloud cover.
Clouds increase over the weekend but look to remain AOA 10kft
supporting VFR conditions through Sunday. Models have trended
drier for Sunday through Tuesday. This should result in better
flight conditions than previously forecast. The upper flow
pattern is expected to amplify by the middle of next week with a
fairly large storm developing over the central CONUS by mid-
week...impacts to our region still in question.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with
above normal temperatures today and Friday and near normal
temperatures over the weekend. The next appreciable chance for
rainfall looks to be the middle of next week. Models have backed
off on any meaningful precipitation until then.

Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to
burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above
normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Transport winds will be near calm today. Friday will be the
best day for ventilation and mixing, transport winds from the
northwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM