Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS61 KRNK 061738
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
138 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall not much change with best concentration for showers/few
storms this afternoon across the southern Blue Ridge into far SW
VA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A drying and cooling to seasonal temperatures after today.

2) Heat builds again mid to late week but not as hot as last
week. A chance of storms Thu-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A drying and cooling to seasonal temperatures
after today.

A backdoor front has well passed the region today. Best radar
coverage of showers/storms runs from northeast TN into southern
NC in association with some upper divergence and a vort max
tracking through the southern Appalachians. Another upstream
shortwave and inverted trough behind the front should focus
scattered to numerous coverage of showers/few storms from the NC
mountains into southern WV this afternoon. Best instability for
severe parameters overall should stay south of our forecast
area, but some stronger storms with frequent lightning could
occur especially along/south of the VA border.

The inverted trough lingers into Monday although shower trends
will drop mainly confined to far southwest VA into NW NC into
Monday after this evening.

Should see more sunshine and lower humidity Monday into Tuesday.



Key Message 2: Heat builds again mid to late week but not as hot as last
week. A chance of storms Thu-Sat.

594dm heights return by midweek with more of a westerly flow.
Should see temps warm about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, still
"hot" for September but not looking as hot as last week.

A front tracks southeast into the area Thursday with a decent
shot of shower/storms. Depending on timing of this feature would
not be surprised to some stronger storms Thu afternoon/evening.

Front track south into the Carolinas but stalls as it becomes
parallel to upper flow. Another wave of low pressure across the
southeast could keep shower chances around into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall low end VFR this afternoon with some periods of 2-3kft
cigs. Any shower/storm may cause cigs/vsbys to the IFR range but
focus of better coverage of showers should be along a TNB-BLF
to possible eastward track to BCB between 18-23z. Amendment to
terminals seem possible depending on radar trends.

Appears showers chance subside by late this evening to keep it
dry overnight. A potential for fog exists across most of the
region but more-so from LWB-BCB, possibly BLF as models show
scattering out of lower clouds. Am confident for sub-VFR, but
not quite to sink everyone below MVFR, and will actually keep
the east VFR. Will watch for fog potential though.

Confidence high for LWB to drop to 1/4sm again after 06z.

Any low clouds/fog dissipate after 12-14z Monday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday afternoon through
Wednesday. Another cold front approaches Thursday and could
bring increased rain chances Thu into Friday. Overnight river
valley fog will be possible each night at LWB through this
period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP