Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

582
FXUS61 KRNK 282348
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
648 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp cold front will cross the region on Monday along with its
associated scattered showers. Very strong and gusty winds will
follow the front, along with rapidly falling temperatures. Gusty
conditions will continue into Tuesday, and near seasonable
temperatures will continue into the start of the new year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Strong cold front will cross the area Monday with very
gusty, potentially damaging, winds and rapidly falling
temperatures in its wake.

2. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory in effect for the Blue
Ridge Foothills and westward, for gusts up to 60 mph.

Cold front is located in the Midwest, from IL and draped south
into TX, with convection firing in the southeast IL and central
IN area. Strong southwesterly flow is noted as far east as KY
at this time, though not quite reaching the local forecast area
just yet. The convection will wane with time, and is not
expected to reach the area, but will still see some scattered
showers, especially in the west, during the morning to about
midday tomorrow. More notably will be the winds, steadily
increasing after 6 AM or so tomorrow, with gusts up to 60 mph
possible in the mountains by the afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday. Take time to secure any loose outdoor objects and
holiday decorations before the winds arrive tomorrow.

Previous discussion below...


As of 125 PM EST Sunday...

Overnight, a strong cold front to our west will progress east
towards the region, as the warm front heads northeast across and
then north of the area. Because of this feature, temperatures will
be on the mild side overnight for this time of year.

The cold front is expected to arrive across the far western sections
of the region around daybreak Monday, and progress quickly east of
the area by mid-day. Scattered showers are expected to accompany the
front. Coverage will be greatest across the mountains, and
decrease in coverage as the front moves east of the crest of
the Blue Ridge.

Once the front passes a particular portion of the forecast area,
temperatures will fall through the day. So, expect a non-diurnal
temperature pattern tomorrow, with high temperatures occurring in
the morning. Winds will increase from the northwest with gusts
across the mountains common in the 30 to 40 mph range, with some
gusts at the highest peaks within the 50 to 65 mph range. This
northwest flow may yield some light upslope snow showers across
western portions of Greenbrier County, WV by the late afternoon.

A Wind Advisory and a High Wind Warning has been posted for portions
of central and western sections of the region tomorrow. These
headlines continue into the Tuesday period which will be
addressed in the next section of this forecast discussion.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Windy conditions continue into the week.

2) Single digit wind chills possible Tuesday morning.

The Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings will continue into
Tuesday as a strong pressure gradient remains over the mountains and
a waves of low level jets send gusts to the ridge tops. While the
winds will affect areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, higher
elevations will experience the strongest winds. Overall, sustained
winds at higher elevations will be between 30-40 mph with gusts up
to 60 mph. Elsewhere, sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to
50 mph are expected. The winds will continue into Wednesday and
Thursday morning, however, they will not be as strong as during
Monday night and Tuesday. The pressure gradient weakens by Friday
and at that point winds noticeably decline.

Colder and drier air moves into the Mid-Atlantic and dominates
the rest of the forecast period. With the wind, Tuesday morning
is forecast to be the coldest with wind chill values in the
single digits west of the Blue Ridge and in the teens towards
the east. Wind chill values in Western Greenbrier and other
higher elevations may drop as low as -10F. Temperatures will
slightly uptick as the week progresses but will still be on the
colder side with highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s and lows
in the 20s and 30s.

Lastly, another cold front may provide a chance of upslope snow by
Thursday morning. Total snow accumulations may be between 0.5-2" but
this event is still a few days away and confidence on this part of
the forecast is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Another low pressure system may impact the area by the end of the
week.

2) High uncertainty in forecast after weekend.

Weather conditions will remain on the (relatively) quiet and cooler
side until the weekend when another low pressure system may arrive.
The signal of this system is weak as there is a lot of discrepancies
between the models which only gets worse after the weekend. Until
then, temperatures may not vary much with highs in the 30s and 40s
and lows in the 20s and 30s. If the low pressure system does impact
the area, it could provide another round of precipitation. Given how
far out the arrival time is, there is too much uncertainty to know
what kind of precipitation is expected and how much.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions seen along and west of the Blue Ridge, while the
Piedmont remains under LIFR. Ceilings will fall to MVFR or lower
for the mountains through the overnight period, and all
terminals will remain low through at least 16Z Monday, when
ceilings lift and return to VFR along the Blue Ridge and to the
east. KLWB and KBLF will likely remain sub-VFR through the end
of the TAF period.

A cold front cross the region by midday Monday, bringing some
scattered showers along, between 08Z and 16Z or so. These
showers will likely not make it past the Blue Ridge, and also
linger the longest for KBLF and KLWB. There is potential for
some of the rain to transition to snow showers late in the TAF
period for southeast West Virginia, but confidence is low in
the snow to directly impact the TAF sites.

More notably will be the wind that accompanies the frontal
passage. Strong, gusty westerly winds will pick up by 12Z
Monday, and continue through Tuesday morning, with the strongest
gusts expected Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Gusts
over 40 knots are possible along and west of the Blue Ridge, and
up to 30 knots possible in the Piedmont. Strongest winds will be
along the crest of the Blue Ridge and the higher peaks in the
west, up to 55 knots. Anticipate low level wind shear through
at least 12Z Monday, until the stronger winds aloft begin to mix
down to the surface. Southwesterly surface winds will turn
quickly west around 09Z or so, then west-northwesterly late in
the TAF period.

Forecast confidence is high for winds and gusts, but low on
precipitation.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Very strong west to northwest flow winds and wind gusts will
through Monday night, decreasing through the day Tuesday.

While not as strong as those expected Monday and Monday night,
winds will remain on the gusty side from the west to northwest
through Thursday night.

A disturbance will pass north of the region Thursday into
Friday. However, the southern extent of this feature may bring
some light snow and some sub-VFR conditions to parts of
southeast West Virginia and neighboring sections of southwest
Virginia on Thursday into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 150 PM EST Sunday...

Winds will increase significantly behind a departing cold front on
Monday morning. Gust speeds of 20 to 30 mph will be common across
the Piedmont and 30 to 40 mph will be common across the mountains.
Locally higher gusts are expected. Also, behind the front will come
a surge of drier air, which will allow for decreasing RH values
during the day. Additionally, coincident to the front itself,
scattered showers are expected, with the best coverage across the
mountains, and decreasing coverage over the Piedmont.

A Red Flag warning has been issued for our NC counties of Stokes,
Rockingham, and Caswell from noon through 6pm on Monday. For this
location, there will be a narrow window tomorrow afternoon for RH
values to touch 25 percent while winds are gusting at or over 35
mph. With this said, there will also be limiting factors. The lowest
RH values of the day will also coincide with temperatures falling
through the 40s. Additionally, this same are may receive a bit of
surface moisture from the morning scattered showers.

While not on the same magnitude as Monday/Monday night, winds will
remain on the gusty side through at least Thursday. RHs will likely
be in the 20s percent range across the VA/NC Piedmonts. Weather no
additional wetting weather through mid-week, fuels will trend drier
each day.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
     VAZ011-015>020-022>024.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for VAZ007-
     009-010-012>014-032>035.
NC...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
     NCZ001-002-018.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for NCZ003-
     019.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM EST Monday for NCZ004>006.
WV...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
     WVZ508.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
     WVZ042>044-507.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AS/DS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS/DS
FIRE WEATHER...DS