Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

857
FXUS61 KRNK 022320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No signifiant changes to the forecast. Freeze Warning and Frost
Advisory remain unchanged for Sunday morning.

No large changes to upcoming mid-week system for rain on
Wednesday/Thursday.

The aviation forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Freezing temperatures have prompted frost and freeze
headlines focused in the mountains.

2) Next best chance for measurable rain will be Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Freezing temperatures have prompted frost and freeze
headlines focused in the mountains.

The shift in the atmosphere will become palpable as high
pressure takes hold behind the departing front, asserting itself
as the dominant synoptic feature over the region. As the
evening progresses, the lingering clouds will dissolve and the
winds will finally begin to subside. Across the valleys and
ridges west of the Blue Ridge, the sky will remain virtually
cloudless for the duration of the night.

This lack of cloud cover, coupled with nearly calm winds, will
set the stage for intense radiative cooling. By dawn,
temperatures will have plummeted into the 30s across almost the
entire area, while the coldest pockets of southeast West
Virginia will likely dip into the upper 20s. To account for
these conditions, a Freeze Warning will go into effect for
several mountain counties, while a Frost Advisory will cover the
remaining territory along and west of the Blue Ridge.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Next best chance for measurable rain will be
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Another few days of dry weather will lead us into the next
workweek. Model guidance has been slowing down the expected
approach of the next rain producing system. The bulk of rain
chances are progged to occur on Wednesday through Thursday, with
some potential for thunder when diurnal heating has destabilized
the surface in the afternoons and evening.

Another progressive mid-level trough looks to bring more
precipitation potential this weekend, but there is more
uncertainty in the impacts of that system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will firmly establish itself as the dominant
synoptic feature behind the departing front, ensuring that VFR
conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. As the sun sets
this evening, the remaining clouds will scatter and the brisk
winds will finally begin to subside. These clear skies will
persist throughout Sunday, though winds will pick up again by
mid-morning, albeit with much less intensity than today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
The region will remain under a VFR regime through early next
week. While a stray shower or thunderstorm might develop over
the mountains on Monday, confidence in any direct aviation
impacts remains low. These favorable conditions will hold steady
through Tuesday and into the first half of Wednesday. However,
the weather will shift late Wednesday as a cold front approaches
from the west, likely introducing showers, thunderstorms, and
the potential for MVFR ceilings.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     VAZ007-009>015-017-019-020-024.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     VAZ016-018-022-023-032>035-043.
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ001-018.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ002-003-019.
WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS/VFJ
AVIATION...RCS/VFJ