Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS61 KRNK 211639
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1239 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warmer air will return today, making for a warming trend
that will persist into the end of the workweek. Arrival of a
cold front during the weekend will bring scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms to the lower Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer air will return today, making for a
warming trend that will persist into the end of the workweek.
Arrival of a cold front during the weekend will bring scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms to the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Upper level ridging will intensify through the remainder of the
workweek, making for a gradual warming trend that will take
high temperatures this afternoon from near-normal for the 2nd
half of April to summer-like during Thursday and Friday.

A cold front near the Great Lakes region will sink southward to
northern Virginia on Wednesday evening, bringing a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of Route 460
on Wednesday afternoon/evening before the front returns
northward during early Thursday. Another chance for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will take place on Saturday as
the cold front advances southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic.
Rainfall amounts through the weekend are not forecast to be
impressive for most, though localized totals approaching an
inch are possible where stronger thunderstorms occur. Overall,
rainfall totals through the 28th are not forecast to bring much,
if any, relief from the existing drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are forecasted for all terminals through
the 22/18Z TAF period. Light SSW winds will gust to 12 to 20 kts
this afternoon and evening before calming after dark. Winds will
be light the first half of the overnight, then increase again in
the early morning hours tomorrow as a warm front moves through,
becoming more westerly and gusting to 20 to 25 knots through
the day.

Overnight an increasing LLJ will mean localized LLWS for the
mountain terminals, or all but LYH and DAN, with 2 kft winds
around 40 knots and light to calm winds at the surface.

Should see some increase in mid and high cloud overnight and
into tomorrow, with perhaps a -SHRA developing at LWB for mid
morning on tomorrow.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Anticipate isolated showers and thunderstorms by later
Wednesday afternoon as a cold front enters northern Virginia.
The best chance of impacts will be at LWB, with lowering
ceilings, possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Tranquil
and mainly VFR conditions will then return for Thursday into
Friday afternoon, when another cold front will enter the Mid-
Atlantic region. This will bring the potential for sub-VFR
ceilings and scattered rounds of shower activity with localized
embedded thunderstorms. Saturday has a high chance for scattered
showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions. Should be some
improvement on Sunday, but showers may linger.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect another dry day for today under abundant sunshine, with
afternoon temperatures warming to near-normal for the second
half of April. With high pressure passing overhead this morning,
winds will shift from the southwest today, with gusts during
the afternoon increasing into the 12 mph to 20 mph range. With
lower wind speeds today compared to those of Monday, do not see
the need for a Fire Danger Statement, however minimum relative
humidity this afternoon will range from 15 to 22 percent across
much of the lower Mid-Atlantic, allowing fuels to remain dry and
readily available to carry fire.

As a cold front approaches from the north on Wednesday, winds
will shift from the west, with speeds during the afternoon
increasing into the 20 mph to 30 mph range, with ridgetop gusts
reaching to 35 mph.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...NF