Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

216
FXUS61 KRNK 171024
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
624 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold front later this week may bring precipitation and end to
the warming trend.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend continues with record highs
possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of
rain for the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend continues with record highs
possible.

It is going to get considerably hot for this time of year for the
entire region. A surface high pressure system has settled over
Bermuda and mid-level ridging continues to grow over the southeast
CONUS. Southwesterly winds between the high and a developing low
pressure system in the Great Plains will create southwesterly winds
that will advect warmer and moist air. The warmth will be felt
Sunday (today) afternoon and the next few days with highs in
upper 80s to mid-90s. The NRV could see highs touching 90 on
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. It is worth repeating that the
public is encouraged to be aware of the hot conditions which may
feel "extreme" compared to the cooler temperatures experienced
last week. The hot and humid conditions would normally promote
an environment for storm development, but with the ridge and
surface high pressure`s influence, precipitation for the first
half of the week is unlikely or at least seriously limited.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of
rain for the region.

Models are continuing to agree on the passage of a cold front later
this week, possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon. There are two
impacts expected with this front. The first is the end to the
warming trend as cooler air will be introduced. A surface high
pressure system will be over the Great Lakes later in the week and
may start wedging into the mountains, entrenching cooler
temperatures. The temperature difference may be a high as 20 degrees
as highs on Thursday may be only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
second impact is rain. This is a bit broad, but given worsening
drought conditions, rain is desperately needed. This event is too
far out for our convective allowing models to investigate but
the front will likely provide the source of lift for storms.
While CAPE will be present thanks to the warm and moist
conditions, wind shear will not be as impressive. The better
shear will be up north, but even some shear of 20-30 kts may be
available as the front crosses. This will support some
organized multicells but the severe weather threat, if any, will
be determined in future forecasts. The front may also straggle
as it crosses the Mid-Atlantic, fighting its way through the
western portion of the Bermuda High. Depending on how the front
progresses, there could be more than one day of precipitation
available.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some VLIFR VSBY/cig due to fog at KLWB this morning and possible
reduced conditions at KBLF, otherwise most of sites look to be VFR.
Conditions today should be mostly clear to possibly some cirrus and
winds generally south to SW under 7 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through
the beginning of next week. More widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the approach of a cold
front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end
of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical
outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have
been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is
being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our current forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     94 in 1962  69 in 1996       92
Lynchburg   93 in 1911  68 in 1894       92
Danville    93 in 1974  69 in 2015       94
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 2015       86
Blacksburg  88 in 1911  61 in 2018       89


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     96 in 1962  69 in 2022       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022       93
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962       94
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977       86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938       90

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...AB
CLIMATE...RCS/AB