Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

611
FXUS61 KRNK 191041
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
641 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated.

Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front is still
expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance of
showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat
possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into
Memorial Day weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat
possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into
Memorial Day weekend.

Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through
Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic.
Heights continue to increase today so expecting another round of
mid 90s east of the mountains with some of the higher elevations
reaching low 90s. Scattered afternoon cumulus possible, but with
ridging continuing to build, this will likely suppress any
afternoon shower/storm potential.

Heat will continue into Wednesday, but afternoon highs could be
a few degrees lower across the mountains due to clouds and
developing afternoon showers/storms. East of the mountains,
likely to see another day with highs in the low/mid 90s.

Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this
heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have
been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated,
limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing
to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat
arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area,
with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder
of the work week and into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region
from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated
surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec
and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some
forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep
layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This
amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in
the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular
clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening
across the region. With these shear and instability values, some
hail and damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out across the
area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
remains in place to account for severe weather potential across
portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

By Thursday, high pressure will begin to build across southern
Canada as the cold front stalls across the region. Moist
east/northeast flow will set in, which will keep temperatures
cooler, along with a continued chance of showers. With stable
east flow, thunderstorm potential appears to be low, with the
highest chances remaining south of the forecast area.

Cool wedge to persist into Friday, along with chance of rain. Mid-
level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the
region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day
through the weekend and into the early portion of next week,
likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area.
Temperatures will warm gradually into the beginning of next
week as cool air wedge begins to break down. Although repeated
rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread
convectively enhanced rainfall not looking overly likely,
therefore flooding potential remains very localized.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through
the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the
south/southwest through the TAF period. Light winds expected
through the morning, then increase to around 10 knots with
periodic gusts 15-20 knots at all terminals this afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected
starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and
storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week
with the system possibly stalling across the area. Periods of
sub- VFR conditions through the weekend.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a
technical outage due to a major power supply failure.
Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently
unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible today. Here are the current
records and our current forecast.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station      Hi Max T    Hi Min T   Forecast High
Roanoke    96 in 1962  69 in 2022      95
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022      95
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962    96
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977    86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938    90

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/EB
AVIATION...BMG
CLIMATE...RCS