Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS61 KRNK 251912
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
312 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast, with mostly dry weather
expected until Friday as another front pushes into the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY 1: Chance for mountain showers Thursday and widespread light
rain likely Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY 1: Chance for mountain showers Thursday and widespread
light rain likely Friday.

The atmospheric stage is set for a transition as a minor
disturbance ripples through the region on Thursday. While this
initial shortwave ushers in a brief window of warmthsending
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and even hitting the
high 70s in some spotsit remains moisture-starved for most. The
western mountainous counties will see most of the rain, though
rain totals will be variable. Throughout the day, a stubbornly
stable atmosphere acts as a lid, keeping any threat of severe
weather at bay while a steady zonal flow prepares the path for a
more significant cold front.

By Friday morning, the narrative shifts as recent model
guidance suggests a quicker arrival for the main system, with
rain potentially beginning by around sunrise. This front,
marching in from the north-northwest, will be selective with its
moisture. The rugged terrain of southeast West Virginia,
particularly Western Greenbrier, stands to receive the most
substantial rainfall of up to a half-inch. Elsewhere, the
prospects for soaking rain begin to diminish as downslope
westerly winds erode the line of showers. This creates a stark
thermal divide across the region, with the mountains huddling in
the 60s while the Piedmont basks in the upper 70s to low 80s.

East of the Blue Ridge, the timing of the front may coincide
with maximum daytime heating, providing just enough energy for a
few thunderstorms to develop. However, because instability
remains weak, the probability of severe storms will be low. As
the front clears the area by Friday night, a seasonable air mass
takes over. High pressure settles in for the weekend and early
next week, pulling the mercury back towards normal, with high
temperatures in the 40s and 50s, while providing a stretch of
much calmer weather. After the weekend, temperatures moderate
above normal with reading in the 70s west of the Blue Ridge to
the 80s east.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over all terminals
through the TAF period. Winds this afternoon look to remain out
of the south/southeast at all terminals at around 5-10 knots. A
slight wind shift to the southwest is expected at all terminals
Thursday morning. Overall, Aviation concerns will remain minimal
through the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are forecasted to persist into Thursday morning
as high pressure maintains its grip on the region. However, this
period of benign weather will begin to deteriorate by Thursday
afternoon as an approaching system pushes light rain showers
into the mountains, likely bringing the first wave of sub-VFR
restrictions to the SE WV (KLWB). This trend will continue into
Friday as a cold front treks across the area, providing a second
opportunity for lowered ceilings and visibilities for all sites
as the frontal boundary interacts with the regional terrain.
VFR conditions are forecasted to return for this weekend, along
with cool and dry conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...NF/RCS