Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS61 KRNK 162113
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
513 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588 has been issued for most of our
Southeast West Virginia counties, as well as many of our
Virginia counties near the IH-64 corridor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588 has been issued for parts of
our forecast area through 11 p.m. EDT.

2) Chances for strong storms and flash flooding through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588 has been issued for parts of our
forecast area through 11 p.m. EDT.

We continue to monitor the radar early late this afternoon/early
this evening as another cluster of showers and thunderstorms
heads toward our area. Overall, the atmosphere across our region
has recovered "nicely" from the convection earlier this morning,
with dewpoints in the lower 70s with ample sunshine. Mesoanalysis
indicates that MLCAPE values of (at least) 1000-1500 J/kg are
being seen, with high potential DCAPE values also indicated.
This will allow a damaging wind threat to be seen across parts
of the forecast area for the next several hours as the
convective complex moves southeastward. The tornado threat
appears to be minimal (but not zero), but should be confined to
far northern parts of our region where better directional wind
shear may be seen.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Chances for strong storms and flash flooding through Monday.

WNW flow remains over the Mid Atlantic region through Monday
night, then becomes more westerly and cyclonic for the remainder
of the week as a mean trough digs south into the area. Within
this flow, a number of perturbations moving through will help
augment an unstable air mass at the surface, triggering several
rounds of convection. We have already seen the remnants of one
MCS moving through parts of WV, VA, and NC this morning and
afternoon. Storms were also being aided by a warm front
snaking through the forecast area. Additional showers and
storms may fire along the Blue Ridge and impact the Piedmont
this afternoon, however some of that area has been worked over
from this morning`s convection. So after a break for the
mountains, another complex of storms is expected to dive towards
WV and southwest VA after 7 PM through about midnight. This
cluster was already developing in the OH Valley early this
afternoon in association with an MCV.

Shear values will support clusters of multicells and perhaps a
supercell or two. Most concerning will be the potential for wet
microbursts and flash flooding, with PWATs in the 1.8 to 2.2
inches range. We have already seen flash flooding today in
Greenbrier and Summers Counties, and a Flood Watch has been
issued for parts of SE WV and along the WV/VA border where FFG
values are less than 1.50 inches for 1 hour. There is also an
isolated tornado threat along the northward lifting warm front.
This includes SE WV and parts of SW and west central VA where
the supercell composite value hovers around 2 to 4 on the SPC
mesoanalysis page, and where LCL heights are 500 to 750 meters
AGL.

A trailing cold front/frontal fracture pushes into the region
tomorrow afternoon and evening, bringing additional showers and
storms to mainly the western mountains, although chances expand
to the Piedmont by late afternoon into the evening. The severe
weather threat should have shifted to be more across SW VA and
NE NC by tomorrow as the cold front moves south. This front
will also usher in a drier airmass by Tuesday, which will be
maintained across the region through the middle of the week.
Rain chances don`t look to return until Thursday, with the
passage of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions have developed at most terminals across the
area, with only LWB still hanging onto MVFR ceilings. While VFR
conditions are anticipated for a majority of the TAF period,
any SHRA/TSRA will lower conditions to IFR TO MVFR. Current
activity is just pushing south of DAN. Additional showers and
storms moving out of the OH Valley after 00Z will bring lower
conditions again tonight, affecting some TAF sites through 06Z.
After that, we will see widespread fog with some of it dense,
and low ceilings lingering west of I-81. This should scatter/
lift out slowly Monday morning.

Light 5 to 10 knot SSW winds today will continue with a few
gusts to 15 to 20 kts through tonight. Winds become more WNW
tomorrow as the cold front moves through, with some higher 20 to
25 knot gusts for the ridges.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Pattern continues with chances for storms Monday night, then
dry for Tuesday/Wednesday. Chances of rain and storms return
Thursday and Friday with another cold frontal passage. Mainly
VFR outside of any storms and late night fog/stratus.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF WV
AND VA......

An active upper level pattern will combine with surface
boundaries and adequate instability to produce several rounds
of showers and storms this afternoon through Monday night. A
Flood Watch has been issued for parts of SE WV and along the
WV/VA border where FFG values are less than 1.50 inches for 1
hour. Additional rainfall will arrive tonight, on top of the
rain that has already fallen today. We have already received
reports of flash flooding in Greenbrier and Summers Counties
today.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through late Monday night for VAZ019-020.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch through late Monday night for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/EB/SH
AVIATION...SH
HYDROLOGY...SH