Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS61 KRNK 111834
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
134 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Minor adjustments to QPF/Snowfall amounts Thursday night into
early Saturday. Still overall looking at sub-advisory snowfall.

Lowered dewpoints east of the mountains both Friday and Saturday
afternoon per strong downslope effect.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers arrive late tonight in the mountains, with
limited to no showers east of the mountains into Friday.

2) Colder air rushes in Thursday night into Friday with light
accumulations of snow in the higher elevations, with flurries as
far east as the I-81 corridor possible.

3) Temperatures stay colder than normal into early next week
then gradually return to normal by the middle to end of next
week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain showers arrive in the mountains late
tonight. Limited chances east of the mountains into Saturday.

Models are in close agreement that the first front arrives later
tonight with rain showers pushing into the mountains by dawn.

There will be several shortwaves pivoting around a deep trough
in the east into Friday night. This first wave with the front
should reach the Piedmont Thursday early afternoon. Could be
enough ample lift with the upper support for widely scattered
showers developing or moving into the Piedmont, but pattern
appears such that we see a jump from the better shower chances
in the mountains to a "rain shadow" of sorts across the
foothills.

The next front and shortwave starts introducing colder air
Thursday evening where we see any rain change to snow showers in
the higher elevations after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Colder air rushes in Thursday night into Friday
with light accumulations of snow in the higher elevations, with
flurries as far east as the I-81 corridor possible.

Best upper support and strong cold advection should push into
the area late Thursday night into Friday with accumulating snow
showers at times into the higher elevations. With ground temps
warm and the snow being wind blow and episodic in nature,
accumulations look to be on the lighter side. Could very well be
a case where some get a dusting to an inch or so, mainly grassy
surfaces/rooftops, then once the precip stops it melts. Total
QPF pushes some snowfall totals closer to 2-3 inches in the
higher terrain of Greenbrier and maybe Beech Mountain, but again
that would be a total snowfall, not equating to snow depth.

Hence at this time, not seeing any need for advisories.

The caboose of the upper trough/shortwave pushes east Saturday.



Key Message 3: Temperatures stay colder than normal into early next week
then gradually return to normal by the middle to end of next
week.

After the being used to mild to warm weather aside from some
chilly overnights, highs Friday into the weekend will be
running as much as 15 to 20 degrees below normal mainly in the
mountains and 5 t 10 degrees below normal in the Piedmont. The
winds should keep the air mixed where overnight lows will be
just below normal.

With the winds staying up, wind chills should be as cold as the
teens to lower 20s from the mountains to Piedmont Friday night,
and just a few degrees higher Sat night.

The upper flow splits into next week with the deeper/colder
trough lifting northeast, but our area will remain in an upper
trough into Tuesday before ridging aloft arrives mid to late
week. Surface high will be north of us into Wednesday keeping
us dry and seasonably cool.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through about
12/10Z, when MVFR or lower ceilings begin to creep into the
mountains as well as rain showers.

Relatively light west winds become west/northwest winds
Thursday.

Anticipate may shower chances into BLF/LWB with less chances to
the east, so kept showers out of ROA/BCB.

Ceilings could drop as lows IFR at BLF by 12-18z Thursday.
Should stay at or above 3kft from BCB/ROA east into 18z.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Light rain showers may mix with snow mainly for BLF/LWB
late Thursday night int Friday. West to northwest winds should
stay up with gusts 20-30 mph possible at most sites from ROA
west, lighter in the Piedmont.

Overall should have sub-VFR cigs and at times vsbys at BLF/LWB
into Saturday with potential MVFR cigs at ROA/BCB and maybe a
flurry of snow.

Conditions should improve as we head into later Saturday into
early next week as high pressure works in.



&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP