Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS61 KRNK 190040 CCA
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
840 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast this evening to adjust PoPs for
dying showers over the SE Piedmont.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Small break in precipitation Wednesday before daily rain
showers and thunderstorms resume again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Small break in precipitation Wednesday before daily rain
showers and thunderstorms resume again.

Some light precipitation has been noticed on radar for the past
few hours in the Piedmont. These storms will struggle to form
and organize due to higher surface pressure following the weak
cold front and poor lapse rates of 4-5 C/km. Precipitation
chances will remain on the lower end for this part of the
forecast area for the rest of the afternoon and evening. The
rest of the region is not expected to have precipitation today.

Wednesday will be a nice break from all the rain as the center of a
surface high moves in and keeps all the precipitation chances very
low. This break is shortlived, however, as by Thursday an
approaching cold front will trigger another round of showers and
thunderstorms for the area. In fact, it is possible that the
diurnal cycle of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may start
again and continue into early next week. At 500mb, a ridge
strengthens and entrenches itself over the southwestern CONUS
while a relatively weaker ridge center to its east moves into
the Atlantic and over Bermuda. This creates a void in between
which is replaced with a trough by this weekend. The models have
some disagreement on how far south the trough axis digs but
there is consensus of it slowly moving eastward as the
southwestern ridge stretches into the Deep South. The synoptic
weather pattern by early next week is similar to the past few
weeks where shortwaves and vorticity maxima are directed to the
area by the ridge. The northwest orientation of the mean winds
signals the western mountains will receive the greatest chances
of precipitation and raises the risk of another flood threat due
to excessive rainfall. On a smaller note, the Storm Prediction
Center has noted that the northwesterly mid- level winds during
the weekend from the trough`s passage may increase the
likelihood of severe weather. The colder temperatures aloft
would assist in improving lapse rates but the Center noted the
timing of a cold front around the same time period would make
all the difference. For now, uncertainty is too high of severe
weather details for this weekend or for the events early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be relatively quiet tonight following the passage of a
cold front. The only main issues with the weather will be
overnight fog at KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB. KLWB will likely have the
lowest visibilities and ceilings and LIFR conditions while KBLF
and KBCB may only degrade to IFR. Fog development will be
supported by mostly clear skies and calm winds overnight,
especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. When the sun rises
Wednesday morning, the fog will evaporate and all terminals will
resume VFR operations.


OUTLOOK...

The break in precipitation will not last as a cold front is
forecast to move through by Thursday and provide all airports
another round of showers and thunderstorms. The return of
prevalent sub- VFR conditions for all terminals is possible as the
overall weather pattern returns to daily chances of rain and
storms for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/SH
AVIATION...CG/SH