Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

608
FXUS61 KRNK 221917
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
217 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes made to headlines...a Winter Storm Watch remains in
effect for the weekend.

Models have trended a little farther north with respect to the
track of this weekends winter storm...heaviest snow to occur
across the Virginias and heavy sleet and freezing rain for the
Carolinas. The storm total graphics that we will begin to
advertise on our social media pages will reflect current model
ensemble guidance and not the outliers.

It is important to note that subtle changes in the storm track
of this storm will have significant changes to overall snow
amounts, but will not change the overall impact of the storm
severity. Whether we get heavy snow, sleet or freezing rain,
the impacts are going to be severe. As much as 2 inches of
liquid equivalent precipitation is being forecast from Saturday
through early Monday. This is a lot of precipitation no matter
what form it takes...and that should be the screaming message.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected Saturday into
Sunday, with increasing confidence in precipitation type.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frigid air to take over after Winter Storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected Saturday into
Sunday, with increasing confidence in precipitation type.

Confidence is high that an impactful winter storm will move through
the region starting late Saturday morning at the earliest, and
continuing through Monday morning. Ensemble support for a 1 to 2
degree Celsius 700mb warm nose developing over the region from the
south Sunday night and pushing north during Sunday morning across
the region. Ensemble support is now showing this initial 1 to 2
degree Celsius warm nose may grow to a 3 to 4 plus warm nose by
Sunday morning and afternoon. Even though this warm nose aloft may
increase to these levels, surface temperatures will struggle to
erode across the region due to a 1040mb surface high pressure
parked over the Northeast. This surface high will create a strong
Cold Air Damming setup across the region Saturday through Monday
morning. This setup will keep surface temperatures solidly in the
mid to upper teens areawide Saturday night into Sunday. While the
aforementioned warm nose looks to eventually develop from south to
north across the region, these surface temperatures will certainly
keep any possible transitioning precipitation as snow early
transitioning to sleet pellets, with a possible finish as freezing
rain across the Piedmont towards the end of the event Sunday night
as temperatures warm into the mid 20s across the VA/NC Piedmont.
Ensemble trends have started to slightly dial into a solution, with
this setup starting to look Miller B, with a weaker developing
surface low possibly traveling up the west side of the Appalachians
before the stronger parent low along the Atlantic Baroclinic zone
takes over. At this time it is still unlikely that this deep of a
surface cold pool could be eroded across the region given the cold
arctic air in place Saturday night, especially across the Mountain
Empire where temperatures look to solidly start in the mid teens
Saturday night.

Given the potential aforementioned warm nose developing aloft, NBM
probabilities for 10" of snowfall are as follows:

(0-15%) All counties in the northern row of NC from I-85 and west,15
and all counties that border NC in VA.

(20-30%) The second row of counties in VA extending north to about
highway 460.

(30-50%) All counties between 460 and I-64 in VA.

The probabilities shown above are a significant decrease from what
was forecast yesterday. This means that overall, more sleet and
freezing rain are expected across the area compared to snow. This
trend will continue to be monitored as the forecast continues to
evolve.


Since sleet typically has a liquid equivalent ratio of roughly (2-
1/3-1), we could potentially see additional sleet totals on top of
any snow that falls early on in the event. The snow that does fall
into this extremely cold and dry airmass will be very fluffy and
light, while the sleet that falls on top will lead to a heavy crust
on top of the previously fallen snow. This may cause to some downed
trees and branches, which could lead to some power outages across
the area.

Regardless of snowfall totals, this event will bring major impacts
to travel across the region, with a total of 1.5 to near 2 inches of
forecast liquid equivalent precipitation expected across the region.
Folks should prepare for dangerous travel conditions from Saturday
morning until Monday morning. If at all possible, folks are
recommended to avoid travel when not necessary.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frigid air to take over after Winter Storm.

Following the weekend winter storm, a strong pressure gradient will
temporarily exist between a large surface high pressure system in
the south and a coastal low off the Atlantic. During this time
period, winds will pick up and transport very cold and very dry air
to the Mid-Atlantic. Winds will likely gust between 20-25 mph on
Monday into Tuesday morning with higher values at ridgetops. High
temperatures for Monday are expected to have a wide range with
values in the teens to lower 20s west of the Blue Ridge and in the
lower 20s to lower 30s east of the Blue Ridge. Because most of the
region will not rise above freezing, the snow and ice on the ground
is not expected to go away anytime soon. Wind chills during Monday
afternoon will be in the single digits to the lower 20s.

Very cold wind chills, especially in the morning, are expected to
continue well into next week inspite of declining wind speeds by
Tuesday night. Tuesday morning, however, is expected to be the
coldest out of the forecast. On this morning, temperatures may be
around zero for most of the area. With the winds, wind chills will
be between -15F to -20F west of the Blue Ridge and -5F to -10F east
of the Blue Ridge. If these conditions increase in likelihood,
especially in the west, they will warrant an Extreme Cold Warning.
These values are already lower than what was previously forecast so
this will be another weather event to monitor in the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR skies to rule the next 24 hours for all terminals. The weather
in the near term is benign with increasing cloud cover as the only
change. Winds will be light amd will start to pick up a little by
Friday afternoon from the west.

Confidence in this forecast is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The winter storm this weekend will bring a mix of heavy snow, sleet,
and freezing rain. Hazardous travel conditions will affect all
terminals and the heavy snow will likely reduce visibilities.
Blowing snow is unlikely, especially south of I-81, due to sleet
following the snow weighing the snow down. Snow is more likely in
the north and less likely down south. Frigid conditions are expected
to follow the winter storm meaning the ice and snow are unlikely to
go away anytime soon and will continue to cripple infrastructure and
affect all terminals into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today, expecting a slight uptick in humidity compared to
yesterday, but overall expecting another dry day with minimum Rh
this afternoon back down close to 30 percent in some areas. Any
clouds this morning should give way to an abundance of sunshine this
afternoon along with westerly winds which will be gusty at
times...especially over the ridge crests. Winds will subside at
sunset.

For Friday, clouds will increase throughout the area. Rh values will
be a little lower than Thursday (today) due to lower dewpoints in
spite of lower air temperatures. Minimum relative humidity (%)
values will be between 25-35%.

The weekend is a show stopper for burning. Heavy wintry
precipitation is forecast. There is potential for 1-2 inches of
liquid equivalent precipitation...a drought buster. If it all falls
as snow and or sleet it will significantly compact fine fuels. It is
also not expected to melt very quickly with temperatures remaining
below freezing for the remainder of the month.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
     059.
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     afternoon for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...CG
FIRE WEATHER...CG/PM