Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

114
FXUS61 KRNK 031755
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
155 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Extreme Heat Warning Expanded into Stokes County, NC, Amherst
and Rockingham Counties, VA for tomorrow.

Aviation Discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Dangerous heat will continue through the
Independence Day holiday weekend.

Key Message 2: Severe weather possible this weekend followed by
additional chances of showers next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat will continue through the
Independence Day holiday weekend.

An upper level ridge should remain over the Southeast through the
Independence Day holiday weekend, but it will start to weaken as
troughing increases from the north. Nevertheless, hot and humid
conditions should persist on Saturday with temperatures approaching
100 degrees and heat indices climbing towards 105 to 110 degrees for
Lynchburg and Danville and points eastward across the Piedmont. The
heat headlines currently in effect for this afternoon will also be
in effect on Saturday afternoon. Along and west of the Blue Ridge,
temperatures and heat indices should mainly reach the 90s. While it
will still remain hot and humid into Sunday, heat index values may
come down slightly towards 100 to 105 degrees along and east of
Route 29 as clouds increase. A further reduction in the heat is
anticipated by early next week.


Key Message 2: Severe weather possible this weekend followed by
additional chances of showers next week.

Isolated to scattered convection is expected today, mainly along
the Blue Ridge but there could be a few isolated cells
elsewhere. BUFKIT and model soundings suggest slow storm motion
with evolution largely based on interactions with nearby storm
outflows. Mode should be single cell and as such expect the
activity to be mostly weak. There is a chance one or two storms
could get strong enough for localized damaging winds. All
storms may have heavy downpours which could produce urban,
small, stream, and isolated flash flooding.

Saturday`s storm chances look more promising as the upper level
ridge starts to break down. On this day, the distribution of
scattered storms looks to be more widespread as well as the
damaging wind gust threat. As a result, the Storm Prediction
Center has increased in spatial coverage of a Slight Risk (Level
2/5) of severe weather for the region. This would be mainly for
damaging winds and excessive rainfall leading to possible urban,
small, stream, and flash flooding.

Following the weekend storms, the ridge continues to degrade and
will open the door for additional disturbances to move through.
A mid-level trough will slowly move east across the Great Lakes
next week, bringing an associated surface front towards the Mid-
Atlantic and central CONUS. The front is not expected to move
much which translates into multiple opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from localized mountain valley fog before 14z/10AM,
primarily at Lewisburg expect VFR conditions through tomorrow
04/18Z. May have isolated afternoon/evening storms over the
mountains this afternoon and evening, but coverage does not
justify adding to any of the TAFs due to low confidence.
Additional storms are expected tomorrow, and coverage may be
greater. These will develop soon after 04/18Z.

With high pressure practically overhead, winds will be light
and variable with speeds generally under 5 kts. It will also be
hot during the afternoon creating high density altitude...
conditions leading to longer takeoff rolls, decrease climb rates
and weight restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase into the Independence
Day weekend. However, primary flight category is expected to be
VFR with Tempo MVFR and LCL IFR due to thunderstorms and/or late
night mountain valley fog.

Main hazard will be the heat...Temperatures through the weekend
will be hot. These extreme temperatures will create high
density altitude with aircraft performance similar to taking off
from a higher altitude runway.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some maximum and minimum temperature records may be broken this
week. For reference, the records are listed below along with the
year the record occurred.

07/03
Station   Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke     97/2012    75/1980
Lynchburg   97/2012    74/1903
Danville   100/1955    80/1922
Bluefield   92/1911    72/1998
Blacksburg  95/1954    71/1941

07/04
Station   Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke     99/1999    74/2024
Lynchburg   98/1966    76/1902
Danville    99/1919    74/1999
Bluefield   92/1957    69/2024
Blacksburg  94/1966    78/1949

07/05
Station   Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke    100/1999    76/2012
Lynchburg   98/2024    75/1900
Danville   103/1919    76/1926
Bluefield   93/1948    71/1969
Blacksburg  94/1930    69/1932

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ022>024-
     032-033-043.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003-004-019-
     020.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ003-019-
     020.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ004>006.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ005-
     006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/PW/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
CLIMATE...SH