Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS61 KRNK 120736
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
236 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overnight aviation update.

Increased PoPs slightly overnight due to incoming line of
showers, with some light rain reaching the Piedmont.

Snow totals have stayed consistently around 1-3" at most for the
higher elevations.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Line of rain showers moves through by daybreak, mountain
showers persist through the day before slowly changing to snow
tonight.

2) Upslope snow event through Saturday for the western
mountains, much colder air through the weekend before a warmup
by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Line of rain showers moves through by daybreak,
mountain showers persist through the day before slowly changing
to snow tonight.

A line of showers in association with a cold front has now reached
the western edge of our area, and will continue to push east as
it weakens. Some areas will receive brief heavy rain, while
others only get a light sprinkle as the line deteriorates.
Confidence has increased that at least some very light rain will
reach into the Piedmont, though not everywhere will have
measurable rainfall. The line moves east by daybreak, with a
mostly sunny day in store for the Piedmont as winds increase
mid-morning behind the front. Sustained winds of 15 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph are expected.

The western mountains will continue to see rain showers through
the day as multiple shortwaves of energy swing around a large
upper-level trough that encompasses most of the Eastern CONUS.
By tonight, strong cold air advection also reaches our area,
which will slowly transition rain showers to snow showers at
the higher elevations initially.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Upslope snow event through Saturday for the western
mountains, much colder air through the weekend before a warmup
by late next week.

As subsequent shortwave troughs swing through the area Thursday
night into Friday, upslope snow will continue across the western
mountains of NC/VA/WV. Due to the ground being warm, initial
snow will mostly melt, but as the cold air settles in, light
accumulations will occur. Flurries will be possible anywhere
along/west of I-81 on Friday, and generally up to 0.5" is
possible for the western mountains outside of the higher
elevations, where 1-3" is possible, especially on elevated or
grassy surfaces. It is possible a few areas such as Western
Greenbrier County or Mt. Rogers could exceed 3", but confidence
in that occurring is low. Snow showers continue for the western
mountains through midday Saturday before tapering off as the
upper-trough begins to lift off to the northeast.

The cold air will be the bigger story for most, as it continues
to pour into the area from Canada, as a large upper trough sits
overhead. This will keep highs around 5-10 degrees below normal
for the Piedmont due to clear skies, while heavier cloud cover
from the northwest flow will keep highs 15-20 degrees below
normal for locations west of the Blue Ridge. Highs each day
through the weekend will be in the low 50s for the Piedmont,
and in the 30s to low 40s for the mountains. Overnight lows
fall into the 20s area-wide Saturday and Sunday nights.

Winds will also remain elevated through the weekend, gusting to
20-25 mph Friday and Saturday, lowering to around 20 mph Sunday
and becoming light by Monday as high pressure builds back into
the area. Due to these winds along with the cold temperatures,
wind chills will be in the teens/20s Saturday and Sunday
mornings. While this is not a dangerous level of cold, it will
be quite the shock to the system after the mild last week or so.
By early next week, a gradual warming trend occurs, with highs
in the 50s by Tuesday and in the 60s by Thursday with no rain
expected all week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is currently at all terminals, but that will change through
the night as BLF/LWB will have showers moving into the area
within the next hour or two. Reductions in VSBY and cigs are
possible to sub-VFR, but once the heaviest rain passes after
09z, VFR should briefly return through daybreak before cigs
lower and remain sub-VFR the rest of the TAF period. For the
other terminals, confidence has increased that light rain showers
are also expected to hold together and move through the Piedmont,
though sub-VFR cigs are not anticipated. BCB/ROA rain chances
are highest between 08-10z, and for DAN/LYH between 10-12z.

Skies clear for DAN/LYH mid-morning with scattered to broken
cigs through the day around 5k feet. ROA may briefly fall to
MVFR cigs mid afternoon around 21z, but otherwise will remain in
VFR. BCB falls to MVFR cigs mid-morning with light showers
possible sporadically throughout the day, but nothing enough to
cause noticeable impacts. Rain showers will persist through the
day for BLF/LWB, with BLF cigs falling to LIFR for most of the
afternoon, while LWB will stay in IFR.

Westerly winds will increase around daybreak and remain elevated
around 10-15 knots, gusting between 20-30 knots for the majority
of the day as winds shift to the northwest after 18z. Gusts
slightly reduce to around 20 knots after 00z.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

DAN/LYH/ROA will continue to be in VFR Thursday night, while
all other terminals will continue to have sub-VFR cigs due to
strong northwest flow. Much colder air moves into the area,
causing rain showers for BLF/LWB to transition to snow by late
Friday, though little impact is expected. The upslope snow event
continues through Saturday, keeping sub-VFR cigs possible at
BLF/LWB. BCB will also be affected with low cigs, and occasional
flurries possible there and at ROA.

Northwest winds will remain elevated through Saturday, with
gusts of 20+ knots possible at all terminals. Winds slightly
reduce Sunday, with gusts around 15 knots expected before
becoming light early next week.

Clouds persist through Sunday at BLF/LWB, though cigs should
improve late Saturday. By Monday, area-wide VFR is expected as
high pressure takes control once again.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB