Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KRNK 151703
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
103 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated to included KBLF ASOS outage.

Climate section added for possible record temperatures Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Warming trend with near record heat early next
week.

Key Message 2: Widespread rain showers likely Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warming trend with near record heat early next
week.

The upper-level trough will move out to sea today, making way
for a significant shift in the regional weather pattern. An
upper-level ridge will build off the Southeast coast, causing
atmospheric heights to increase as a steady southwest flow
ushering in much warmer air. This transition will lead to a
notable warming trend throughout the weekend, ultimately
culminating in near-record heat by the start of the work week.

On Saturday, afternoon highs will range from the upper 70s to
mid- 80s across the mountains, while the foothills and piedmont
will see temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 80s.
Conditions will moderate even further on Sunday, with
temperatures expected to be 3F to 5F warmer than the previous
day.

As the upper-level ridge drifts northward on Monday and
Tuesday, heights will continue to rise, bringing the potential
for record- breaking heat across the entire area. During this
peak, high temperatures will hold in the 80s west of the Blue
Ridge, while areas to the east will soar into the lower-to-mid
90s. See the climate section of this discussion for specific
daily records during this unseasonably warm stretch.

Key Message 2: Widespread rain showers likely Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning.

As the ridge takes hold, tropical air circulating around its western
periphery will draw deep moisture into the region. This surge in
humidity, coupled with the climbing temperatures, will trigger a
daily risk for afternoon and evening convection. The first signs of
activity will emerge Sunday, when a few storms may develop across
the North Carolina High Country. This trend will persist into Monday
and Tuesday, with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
mountains remaining possible during the peak heating hours of the
day.

A more significant transition is expected by mid-week as a cold
front tracks across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This boundary
will arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms first to the mountains before moving into
the foothills and Piedmont during the evening. While the threat of
thunder will diminish Wednesday night, widespread rain showers are
likely to linger across the area through late Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as surface
high pressure moves across the region tonight and eventually
settles off the Southeast coast. Winds will maintain a
northwesterly flow under 10 knots today before becoming light
and variable tonight. As the high pressure center shifts
offshore, winds will transition to the southwest on Saturday.
While fog is likely to develop in the mountain river valleys
early Saturday morning, it is not expected to impact any
terminals with the possible exception of KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will continue to dominate the regional weather
pattern through early next week, maintaining a period of
sustained stability. However, temperatures and humidity levels
will steadily climb each day, gradually increasing the
likelihood of isolated thunderstorms, primarily focused across
the mountain terrain. By Wednesday, the arrival of a cold front
tracking across the region will likely trigger numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms, with activity persisting into
Wednesday night.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a
technical outage due to a major power supply failure.
Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently
unknown.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

StationHi Max THi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke94 in 196269 in 1996     92
Lynchburg93 in 191168 in 1894     92
Danville93 in 197469 in 2015     93
Bluefield87 in 199666 in 2015     85
Blacksburg88 in 191161 in 2018     88


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

StationHi Max THi Min TForecast High
Roanoke96 in 196269 in 2022    94
Lynchburg93 in 196266 in 2022    93
Danville95 in 196269 in 1962    94
Bluefield89 in 191166 in 1977    85
Blacksburg91 in 191161 in 1938    88

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS