Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

791
FXUS61 KRNK 100024
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
724 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Models are coming closer to a consensus on the weekend system, and
have trended slightly warmer. However, the potential remains
for wintry precipitation types for parts of the area, and
overall uncertainty on sensible weather impacts is still high.

For the evening update, temperatures were increased this evening
and through the overnight for parts of the area. Southerly winds
will cause warm air to advect at the mid levels, increasing
temperatures overnight for the NC mountains and southwestern VA
as a warm front moves in. Sky cover was also increased for the
northern half of the area through the overnight as well to match
observations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend continues through Tuesday, with cooler but still
above-freezing high temperatures for the remainder of the week. Any
melting during the day followed by refreezing at night will mean
black ice in the mornings.

2) Light rain and snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, along with gusty winds.

3) Increasing confidence on a system to impact the area
this weekend, but confidence is low on precipitation types and
system timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warming trend continues through Tuesday, with
cooler but still above-freezing high temperatures for the
remainder of the week. Any melting during the day followed by
refreezing at night will mean black ice in the mornings.


Satellite imagery this evening showed a wide band of clouds
between 5k and 8 kft. This was associated with an area of
frontogenetic forcing between 700 to 850mb along a baroclinic
zone stretching from Ontario, Canada to the Atlantic Coast near
Georgia. These clouds kept temperatures a bit cooler than they
would be otherwise for those underneath. Afternoon temperatures
reached the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area (still an
improvement over previous days. This will melt some of the snow
and ice pack on the ground, but it will take a few days of
warmer temperatures to get back to bare ground. Overnight we
drop back to near to below freezing leading to black ice
development for the morning rush hour Tuesday.

As upper level ridging builds in from the west Tuesday and a
warm front lifts northeast across the region, we will see
increasing WSW winds which will advect warmer and more moist air
to the area. As a result, Tuesday will be the warmest day this
week, with a 90-100% chance for high temperatures more than 45F
areawide. Many locations in the Piedmont and urban areas like
Blacksburg and Roanoke will actually see highs in the 55F to 65F
range as we remain in the warm sector. Nighttime temperatures
also remain above freezing for NC and SW VA Tuesday night, but
SE WV will see lows right around freezing. However, the warm air
we see about 24 hours in WV and almost 36 hours elsewhere will
make a good dent in the snow and ice pack.

Cooler and drier air arriving behind a frontal system Wednesday
will knock temperatures back down to just below or near normal
for the mountains (roughly a 10 to 15 degree drop across the
area for highs, but still well above freezing). By Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, the mountains and foothills will
see a near 100% chance of dropping below freezing again, with
another warm day Thursday.

Overnight lows that do drop back below the freezing mark in
combination with melting snow and ice during the day will mean
the formation of black ice, so caution should be exercised
during the morning commutes.



Key Message 2: Light rain and snow is possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, along with gusty winds.


By Tuesday night, a cold front will be entering our region from
the west, and quickly crosses the area by Wednesday morning. It
will be windy with rain and snow showers expected for the
mountains (snow mainly for the Greenbrier Valley).
Accumulations look to be less than a quarter of an inch of rain
and an inch or less of snow. Winds will gust from the NW
beginning Tuesday afternoon through the night Wednesday around
25 to 35 mph, with some gusts to 45 mph possible on the higher
ridges and peaks. We may see some light upslope snow showers
into midday Wednesday, possibly reaching as far south as the
Blue Ridge escarpment due to lake effect enhancement upstream.



KEY MESSAGE 3: Increasing confidence on a system to impact the
area this weekend, but confidence is low on precipitation
types and system timing.


Model guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement than in
previous days regarding a system impacting the Mid Atlantic this
weekend. There is better consensus on the overall evolution of a
low pressure system developing over the south central US by the
end of the work week, tracking eastward, with a surface high
positioned over the eastern US, a cold air damming pattern for
our area, though the strength of the pattern is variable among
model solutions. Where more of the uncertainty exists is in the
evolution of the upper pattern for the weekend, as the 500mb
southern stream shortwave also moves east. Overall, this system
is shaping up to look like a Miller B, with the surface low
heading into the Ohio Valley and chasing the colder airmass.
Models have trended slightly warmer in recent runs, as the
surface high and colder air moving to east a bit faster, leading
to increased probabilities for liquid precipitation. However,
guidance is still fluctuating on the timing and exact track of
the surface low, which will subsequently determine what
precipitation types our region will receive. With the nights
dropping to below freezing and rising above freezing during the
day, will likely see a transition from snow overnight to rain or
a rain/snow mix throughout the day. Though NBM probabilities are
low, less than 20% at this time, for freezing rain accumulations
more than 0.01", cannot rule out the potential for other
p-types.

Though timing also varies between deterministic and ensemble
guidance, at this time, Sunday looks to be the day with the
highest probability of precip, with over 75% PoPs areawide per
the 13Z NBM. With that being day 7 in the forecast, this could
change in future forecast updates. Along the Blue Ridge has the
highest probability of 1.5" of 48 hour QPF through Monday
morning, ranging between 50% to 75%.

Prior to the weekend, a weak northern stream shortwave dives
south Thursday into Friday. With temperatures right around
freezing Friday morning, the higher elevations of the southern
Blue Ridge could see some light snow before transitioning to
rain or a rain/snow mix, with most precip south of US-460.
However, NBM probabilities for 24 hr precip through Saturday
morning greater than 0.25" are less than 20%, so this event does
not look to be as impactful as the system over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are across all terminals this evening, despite
some lingering low clouds. Cigs will bounce around through the
night, but will remain at VFR flight levels throughout. The
bigger concern overnight will be some LLWS of 35 knots from the
west beginning after 06z. This is due to westerly winds aloft
bringing in warmer air with a warm front, while the surface
winds remain from the south to southeast. The LLWS will only
affect BCB/BLF/LWB through 16z when surface winds also shift to
the west. No precipitation is expected through most of the TAF
period, though an approaching cold front late tomorrow evening
will allow for showers to move near BLF/LWB. This will likely
not occur until after 00z Wednesday, but an isolated shower
cannot be ruled out beforehand.

Winds remain light through the night, with an occasional gust
over 15 knots possible west of the Blue Ridge near the warm
front. During the day tomorrow, winds increase ahead of the
cold front, from the southwest at 8-12 knots, with gusts of 20+
knots possible, especially for BCB/BLF/LWB/ROA. Confidence in
the above forecast is medium.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds turn NW with the passage of a cold front Wednesday,
becoming stronger with gusts to 25 to 35 kts through Thursday
morning. Expect some light rain showers Wednesday morning, with
flurries possible downstream towards BCB and ROA through
midday. All sites should be VFR most of Wednesday, but possible
sub-VFR upslope clouds return to the mountains after Thursday
00Z.

Mid and high clouds move in during the day Thursday and Thursday
night ahead of the next weather maker but we should be mainly
VFR during this time with the exception of lower stratus near
BLF and LWB. By Friday, expect sub-VFR conditions with rain and
snow possible mainly along and south of a line from Bluefield to
Roanoke to Danville. Precipitation chances increase for the
weekend along with increasing chances of sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...JCB/SH