Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

021
FXUS61 KRNK 041119
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
719 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
AVN updated.

High POPs east of Blue Ridge for this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cloudy cool Sunday with morning rain and drizzle along and
east of Blue Ridge.

2) Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the
week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures warm for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cloudy cool Sunday with morning rain and
drizzle along and east of Blue Ridge.

Cold front which moved through the region Saturday is still
providing for abundant cloud cover and cool temperatures.
A wave of low pressure is rippling northeast along the front
resulting in rain and drizzle this morning for areas primarily
along and east of the Blue Ridge. Models have this precip ending
by noon with clouds lingering into tonight and then clearing
Monday.

With the cool moist airmass in place do not expect much of a
temperature rise today. May squeak out a 5 to 10 degree rise if
rain exits the area as forecast...highs no warmer than the 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions will return by Monday and last
throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures warm for the second half of the week.

High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes Monday then
pass overhead Tuesday. Wind flow should become northwesterly
Monday scouring the cool wedge east of the Blue Ridge. As the
weather turns drier, dewpoints should drop into the 40s.
Low temperatures for Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning may
support some patchy frost in the mountain valleys. Locations
such as the Greenbrier River Valley and Burkes Garden may see
lows in the mid to upper 30s. The models maintain high pressure
over the region for the remainder of the week. As the airmass
modifies temperatures should moderate for the second half of the
week.

Next opportunity for rain is Sunday and Monday Oct 11-12.
NHC is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the
Southwest Gulf of America with increasing confidence this
feature may develop into a cyclone in the next 7 days. The
operational run of the GFS brings this feature north but
confidence very low as to whether we will partake in any
tropical moisture this far north latitude.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR to LIFR conditions are present across the forecast area this
morning with ridge obscurations. Little improvement is expected
until the afternoon. Cigs are expected to remain under 1kft
this morning with rain, drizzle and fog persisting along and
east of the mountains through 15Z/11AM.

After 15Z/11AM conditions will gradually improve as the rain
and drizzle tapers off. Cigs may improve to MVFR but any
clearing that does occur late in the afternoon may fill back in
tonight in the form of fog and stratus.

Winds today from the northeast or east...under 10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Expect low cigs to stick around into Monday morning then clear
as winds become northwesterly. VFR in high pressure follows
thereafter through Friday with the exception of late night and
early morning river valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM