Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS61 KRNK 011858
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
158 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A quick moving upper level system will bring brief periods of
snow showers and light freezing drizzle for Greenbrier county
tonight, with the rest of the area remaining under the influence
of high pressure. An additional quick-moving low pressure
system may bring some light precipitation to the region on
Saturday, followed by an extended period of dry weather
persisting into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. A light glaze of freezing rain and snow mix can`t be ruled
   out overnight across Western Greenbrier county.

2. Winds will become breezy again overnight and persist through
   Friday evening.

The main upper level trough axis is expected to be east of
Virginia by this evening. This will keep much of the area in
westerly/northwesterly flow through Friday, with an additional
upper level energy expected to dip southeast across eastern Ohio
and western Pennsylvania overnight tonight and into Friday
morning. As this piece of energy pushes across the area, there
will be a slight chance for snow showers across Western
Greenbrier; however, CAM guidance sounding profiles suggest that
a dry layer may be present across the 900mb to 800mb level.
This dry layer, which most CAM models do not erode through
Friday mid morning looks to prevent any significant continuous
snow and or freezing rain from occurring during this 8 hour
window from 2am to 10am. Overall, a few hundredths of
precipitation can`t be ruled out, with Western Greenbrier likely
seeing measurable precipitation compared to Eastern Greenbrier,
where a trace is more likely. Given the low confidence in
measurable frozen precipitation beyond 0.01 to 0.03 inches, a
Winter Weather Advisory has been forgone for the time being. If
subsequent model guidance suggests the aforementioned upper
level energy will dip further south allowing for more forcing
over the region, a Winter Weather Advisory may be added for
Western Greenbrier later tonight or overnight.

Outside of the wintry precipitation chances across Greenbrier
county overnight, Friday will generally start with partly to
mostly cloudy skies, with clearer skies forecast further south
towards North Carolina. These partly cloudy skies will slowly
give way to cloudy conditions as a upper level clouds from a
surface low tracking through the lower Mississippi valley
approaches the region. High temperatures Friday will be
slightly warmer, with low to mid 50s east of the Blue Ridge, and
mid to upper 40s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain arriving and cooler conditions Friday night into Saturday.

2. Dry and trending cooler still Sunday into Sunday night.

Eyes are on a southern stream system which is expected to sweep
across the Gulf Coast states Friday night through Saturday. The
precipitation footprint depicted with this systems has trending
farther north as compared to this time yesterday. A greater expanse
of our region is expected to experience precipitation of more than
just 0.10 of an inch. Locations near and south of the VA/NC border
may now see event total rainfall of around 0.25 to 0.50 inch, with
decreasing amounts heading north throughout the forecast area in
WV/VA. Surface temperatures and low level thermal profiles are still
offering a rain forecast for the vast majority of the region. The
exception may be the northern and northeastern sections of the
forecast area. Here temperatures may be cold enough at the surface
and/or within the lower thermal profile for light freezing rain
and/or light snow.

The precipitation is expected to exit the region west to east late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as the primary system heads
off the SE US coast. As colder air filters into the area, the
western edge of the exiting precipitation may have pockets of light
freezing rain and/or light snow.

For Sunday into Sunday night, high pressure is expected to settle
into the region. While a cooler airmass will be associated with this
feature, a lack of clouds on Sunday as compared to Saturday, may
allow some locations to experience high temperatures greater than
those of Saturday. Lows Sunday night are expected to be in the 20s
to lower 30s for most locations.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate, the the
potential for wintry p-types the biggest question.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Trending milder through the period.

2. Dry through Tuesday with scattered showers possible Wednesday and
early Wednesday night.

3. Patchy light rain possible Thursday as a warm front develops to
our southwest.

During this portion of the forecast an upper level shortwave ridge is
expected to build over the region into Tuesday. A shortwave rough is
then expected to progress rapidly through the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This pattern will allow
for a trend towards milder conditions as southwest flow strengthens.
Much of the energy associated with the shortwave trough is expected
to remain north of the area. However, there is expected to be enough
of an influence for our area for isolated to scattered showers to
move into western parts of the area late Tuesday night and continue
into Wednesday. A few showers may reach areas east of the crest of
the Blue Ridge on Wednesday.

This system exits the region Wednesday night, and is quickly
replaced by yet another building ridge over the region. To the west
of the ridge, low pressure is expected to be deepening over central
CONUS. There is a lot of variability among the guidance as to
exactly just where though. However, the overall result for our
region will generally be the same. An exiting upper ridge and
developing low to the west, again will allow for increasing
southwest flow over the area, especially be Thursday. This will
allow for moderating temperatures and moisture flux into the region.
Patchy light rain is expected for mainly western parts of the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, nearest a developing warm front over
the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate through
Tuesday, then drops to low/moderate for Wednesday/Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

MVFR restrictions look to linger at mountain terminals through
the remainder of today, with some improvement expected at LWB,
BCB, and BLF throughout the afternoon and evening hours. BCB
will likely become VFR over the next couple of hours as clouds
continue to break up across the region. An additional northern
stream clipper system will bring increased cloudiness overnight,
which will return MVFR to IFR CIGs to BLF, LWB, and BCB by the
early morning hours on Friday. As this upper level energy pushes
across the area, some LLWS will also be present at BLF and BCB
through the early morning hours, but is expected to dissipate
shortly after 12 UTC as the LLJ weakens. VFR conditions look to
briefly return Friday afternoon just beyond the TAF period for
mountain terminals. VFR conditions are expected to remain at
DAN, ROA, and LYH through the TAF period.

Winds look to remain primarily westerly/northwesterly with gusty
conditions this afternoon subsiding through the evening hours,
before additional gusty winds return overnight, with 20 to 25
knot gusts lingering for mountain terminals through the end of
the TAF period. Piedmont terminal gusts look to remain below 20
knots through the period, with an occasional 20 knot gust
possible Friday afternoon.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A passing system on Saturday will bring the potential for sub-
VFR again through Saturday night. An extended dry period begins
Sunday, and will persist through much of next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG/EB