Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS61 KRNK 212326
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
626 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM EST...

The main change from the previous forecast is a Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for all counties in our forecast area due
to the hazard of snow accumulations between 8-14 inches. A
subtle northward trajectory in the winter storm may have
significant changes to the total snowfall amount. The public is
encouraged to make preparations for this storm.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Small chances of precipitation before winter
storm this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant winter storm is expected Saturday
into Sunday, with moderate confidence in precipitation type,
followed by brutally cold temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Small chances of precipitation before winter
storm this weekend.

A cold front passes through tonight and brings in clouds and a
chance of precipitation for the western elevated counties. The
precipitation will be upslope based and will struggle to get past
the Appalachians. With light QPF, precipitation is not expected to
be much. Given above freezing temperatures during part of the
overnight hours, precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow with
snow more likely at higher altitudes. Maximum snowfall may be up to
an inch in Western Greenbrier at best. Winds may still pick up
overnight, however, due to the passing of a low level jet and
will subside by Thursday evening.

Another round of precipitation is possible Friday before the main
event this weekend, but these chances are lower than what is
projected for tonight. Current model guidance suggests the
precipitation will arrive late Thursday night in the form of snow
and then changing into rain after sunrise in the Piedmont of NC
and southside VA. Little accumulation is expected from this
event.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant winter storm is expected Saturday into
Sunday, with moderate confidence in precipitation type, followed by
brutally cold temperatures for early next week.

Confidence is high that an impactful winter storm will move through
the region starting Saturday morning at the earliest, and continuing
through Monday morning. Ensemble support for a 1 to 2 degree
Celsius 700mb warm nose developing over the region from the
south Sunday night and pushing north during Sunday morning
across the region. Surface temperatures will struggle to erode
across the region due to a 1040mb surface high pressure parked
over the Northeast. This surface high will create a strong Cold
Air Damming setup across the region Saturday through Monday
morning. This setup will keep surface temperatures solidly in
the mid to upper teens areawide Saturday night into Sunday.
While the aforementioned warm nose looks to eventually develop
from south to north across the region, these surface
temperatures will certainly keep any possible transitioning
precipitation as either all snow or as sleet pellets. Unless
ensemble trends continue to trend north with the developing
surface low, and bring it along or on the west side of the
Appalachians, it is unlikely that this deep of a surface cold
pool could be eroded across the region given the cold arctic
air in place Saturday night.

Given the potential aforementioned warm nose developing aloft, NBM
probabilities for 10" of snowfall are as follows:

(30-40%) All counties in the northern row of NC from I-85 and west,
         and all counties that border NC in VA.

(40-60%) The second row of counties in VA extending north to about
         highway 460.

(60-80%) All counties between 460 and I-64 in VA.


Since sleet typically has a liquid equivalent ratio of roughly (2-
1/3-1), we could potentially see additional sleet totals on top of
any snow that falls early on in the event. The snow that does fall
into this extremely cold and dry airmass will be very fluffy and
light.

Regardless of snowfall totals, this event will bring major impacts
to travel across the region, with a total of 1.5 to near 2 inches of
forecast liquid equivalent perception expected across the
region. Folks should prepare for dangerous travel conditions
from Saturday morning until Monday morning. If at all possible,
folks are recommended to avoid travel when not necessary.

Behind the system early next week, bitterly cold air will move into
the area, with lows near zero for most of the area. Winds will be
light, but enough to cause wind chills to be -10 to -20 below zero
in the higher elevations. Below freezing temperatures are expected
to last through midweek, which will keep any winter precipitation
that falls from melting, making travel difficult where roads are not
cleared or retreated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR this evening for most with potential for light rain,
possibly mixed with snow and sub-VFR cigs at BLF/LWB between
02z/08z, but cigs will stay sub-VFR into Thu morning then
scatter out 12-16z. Could be some low level wind shear this
evening but its marginal. South to southwest winds may be gusty
at times from ROA/BCB west to BLF. Winds turn west behind front
Thursday with a few gusts to 20kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The winter storm for this weekend will likely paralyze all
terminals as well as much of the mid-Atlantic and central
Appalachians into the southeast U.S. Up until this storm should
be mainly VFR until Friday night into Saturday then cigs/vsbys
sink to IFR or worse until Sunday night into Monday. Expect a
mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain, with snow the main ptype
along/north of BLF-ROA-LYH, with sleet mixing in south of this
by Sat night-Sunday along with freezing rain as far north as
MKJ-BCB-DAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After today clouds and humidity increase. There is a small chance
for light precip over the mountains of SE West Virginia tonight.
Another window of opportunity to burn is possible Thursday
afternoon, winds will be westerly however. Temperatures will also be
warmer Thursday with Rh back down close to 25 percent in some areas.
A majority of the region will remain in the mid 30s for RHs.

For Friday clouds will be on the increase with potential of light
precip. Larger fuels will lag with respect to fuel moisture recovery
in spite of shading and increasing humidity.

The weekend is a show stopper for burning. Heavy wintry
precipitation is forecast. There is potential for 1-2 inches of
liquid equivalent precipitation...a drought buster. If it all falls
as snow and or sleet, it will be measured in feet, not inches. This
will significantly compact fine fuels. And it is not expected to
melt very quickly either...temperatures remaining below freezing for
the remainder of the month.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     afternoon for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
     059.
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     afternoon for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...CG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...EB