Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS61 KRNK 190021
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
821 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Updated.

Wind Advisory in effect Sunday from 6am til 4pm for the southern
Blue Ridge from Floyd County, VA to Watauga County, NC, for
gusts 45-50 mph.

No change in the severe weather outlook with a few strong wind
gusts possible this evening mainly over southeast WV into far
southwest VA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers/few storms by this evening mainly in the mountains.
Cannot rule out a few strong/severe storms mainly in WV/far SW
VA.

2. Strong post-frontal winds Sunday with gusts 45 to 50 mph
along the southern Blue Ridge.

3. Turning cooler Sunday, with frost/freeze possible especially
Monday night, then warming up mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Pre-frontal showers/few storms this evening could
bring strong wind gusts to mainly WV and far SW VA.

Convective allowing models vary on instability this evening with
showers developing/moving into the mountains. 3km NAM is more
robust with SBCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg in far SW VA by 00z,
with the other hi-res models limited to around 1000 J/kg or
less. Since there is some drier air aloft, forecast soundings do
indicate potential for stronger gusts with DCAPEs, but models do
show better DCAPE well ahead of the showers this evening.

Should see any severe threat diminish by late evening, with as
usual with a north-south oriented front moving west to east,
allowing for more shower coverage in the mountains, then
expecting the showers to scatter out east of the mountains.

Rainfall amounts will be at least beneficial in the mountains
but far from putting a dent in the drought, with a quarter to
three quarters of an inch possible, while the Piedmont which is
a severe drought may not get any rain or mostly a tenth of an
inch.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Post-frontal winds gusting 35 to 50 mph, wind
advisory southern Blue Ridge Sunday starting at 6am.

Models showing decent pressure rises behind the front with
strong cold advection. Coupled with a 45kt jet, appears our
southern Blue Ridge could have gusts 45-50 mph from Floyd to
Watauga starting around dawn Sunday then leveling off by early
afternoon.

Key Message 3: Cooler Sunday into early next week with
frost/freeze possible mainly the mountains Monday night. Warming
up again mid to late week.

Temperatures are likely to drop during the day Sunday in the
mountains, with some snowflakes possible Sunday night across the
higher ridges of WV, though no accumulation expected. Temps fall
around freezing in the Greenbrier Valley/mountains, though wind
staying up should prevent frost.

Monday night high pressure will be overhead and allowing better
radiational cooling where patchy frost will likely occur with
decent chance for sub-freezing temps in the mountains.

Ridge build back in later in the week returning temps above
normal. Rain chances look meager until possibly with a front by
Saturday.

Still looking a pattern chance potential for the week of April
26 through early May where rain chances should increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers/few storms may bring sub-VFR to the mountains into the
night. Occasional sub-VFR is possible as far east as ROA but
think showers will be less at LYH/DAN.

Winds will shift from southwest to west tonight as the front
moves through and then northwest before 12z. Gusts 20-35kts
likely where the higher gust will around ROA/BCB/BLF.

Any sub-VFR should scatter out by 15-16z Sunday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A secondary front enters the area Monday and could bring near
sub-VFR at LWB/BLF Sunday night-Monday morning but in general
VFR is expected through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rain expected in the mountains tonight with a quarter to
half inch possible. Less in the east if any.

Strong west to northwest winds should fuels efficiently Sunday
afternoon, though temps will be cooler than today. Still RH
drops as low 15 to 25 percent.

Monday appears just as dry and with another day of drying could
be a day where wildfire spread is higher with RH values again
dropping into the teens along/east of the Blue Ridge and 20-27
percent in the mountains.

The rest of the week appears mostly dry, with temps warming up
after Tuesday back above normal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are the record highs for April 18th and the
forecast temperature at each of our climate sites.

SITE       RECORD HIGH/YEAR           FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE          91/1976                   89
LYNCHBURG        95/1896                   88
DANVILLE         93/1937                   90
BLACKSBURG       87/1896                   84
BLUEFIELD        88/1976                   82

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ015>017.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/EB/WP
AVIATION...BMG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...EB/PM/WP
CLIMATE...WP