Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS61 KRNK 271018
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
618 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The entire forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout
this weekend.

2) Hot and humid conditions will take place by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue throughout this weekend.

A cold front should slowly drift southeastward during this
weekend, which will serve as a focus for more chances of showers
and thunderstorms. However, considerable debris cloudiness and
decaying upstream mesoscale convective systems will continue to
travel towards the Appalachian Mountains by this morning. If
the morning debris cloudiness clears out to allow enough daytime
insolation, there is a risk of severe weather due to the threat
of damaging winds later this afternoon and evening, particularly
across the North Carolina Piedmont. Any stronger storms could
also produce some heavy downpours.

By Sunday, the cold front should eventually exit Virginia and
reach North Carolina. More showers and thunderstorms will
develop, but there may be more upstream mesoscale convective
systems and debris cloudiness to contend that could hamper
instability. Convection should wane towards Sunday night as the
cold front reaches the East Coast and exits offshore by Monday.
The models indicate a potential for a few showers and
thunderstorms to develop during Monday afternoon, but this
activity appears notably weaker as an upper level ridge
approaches from the west.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will take place by the
middle of next week.

A broad upper level ridge should build northeastward from the
lower Mississippi River Valley towards the Ohio River Valley
between Monday and Wednesday. This ridge could become centered
overhead by Thursday and Friday. While chances of showers and
thunderstorms should lessen due to capping aloft, the bigger
impact will be the increasing heat and humidity. Temperatures
should jump notably by Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the
90s for most locations and even a few spots east of the Blue
Ridge may break 100 degrees. Heat indices could reach the lower
100s across the Piedmont. The models show considerable
differences by the end of next week, but there may be upper
level troughing across southeastern Canada that could cause the
ridge to gradually weaken and retrograde.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Incoming showers may start to impact LWB and BLF this morning
as a thunderstorm complex pushes east this morning. This may
lead to some brief restrictions at both of these terminals as
these showers move into the area of these terminals. The
longevity of this shower and thunderstorm complex is uncertain
once it passes the two aforementioned terminals, and may break
up prior to reaching further east terminals such as BCB, ROA,
LYH and DAN. Given this uncertainty, have opted out of including
showers or thunderstorms for these other terminals this morning.

Continued uncertainty exists in afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development today as this system may lead to
cloud debris across the region inhibiting substantial
instability from developing across much of the area. If this
does occur, thunderstorm activity may be kept at a minimum
across the region, with scattered showers possible instead. For
the time being, VCTS has been included at nearly all terminals,
with BLF and LWB having TSRA through the afternoon hours.
Depending on the placement of shower and thunderstorm activity,
there may be some left over cloud debris that may lead to some
MVFR CIGs at mountain terminals through the afternoon and
evening hours today. This cloud cover may linger through the end
of the TAF period leading to some lingering restrictions through
early Sunday morning at all terminals.


Overall, regardless of shower and thunderstorm activity,
southwest winds at around 5-10 knots expected at all
terminals, with gusts up to 15-20 knots being possible across
mountain terminals today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Another mid and upper level disturbance pushes through the
region on Sunday, the potential exists for additional showers
and thunderstorms to impact terminals once again. By Monday,
High pressure settles into the region, and ridging looks to
build over the central/eastern Conus, providing several days of
likely VFR conditions across the region through the middle of
next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...EB