Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS61 KRNK 252322
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
722 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast updated.

Showers diminishing this evening, may see some fog overnight
especially where it rained combined with where it clears out.

Rainfall chances on Sunday have continued to decrease to below
10% as dry air is now expected to funnel into the region from
the northeast. Confidence continues to increase on another
round of rainfall during the middle of next week. Confidence is
low on potential additional systems late next week into early
May.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
A more active weather pattern is forecasted through the middle
of next week, with multiple cold fronts bringing showers and a
few thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A more active weather pattern through the middle
of next week, with multiple cold fronts bringing showers and a
few thunderstorms.


Cold front passes the region by Sunday morning, all shower chances
drop off as cooler and drier air works its way into the region
from the northeast as a backdoor front slides southeast with
high pressure setting up across the Northeast. This drier
airmass will keep the area dry through Tuesday morning before an
additional cold front pushes east towards the region by Tuesday
afternoon. While this front does not look to produce much
rainfall on Tuesday afternoon, it will remain draped across the
Tennessee valley and West Virginia during the overnight hours.
An upper level disturbance looks to slide east along the frontal
boundary Tuesday night and into Wednesday. As this occurs, a
weak surface low is expected to develop and slide northeast
along the southern Appalachians providing chances for more
widespread rainfall chances to the area. Rainfall totals look to
be increasing during this timeframe, with around 0.5 to 1.0
inches of rainfall looking possible during the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe.

An upper level trough looks to settle over the eastern Conus
after Wednesday`s low pressure system. Multiple shortwave
disturbances look to be embedded within the larger trough, and
could lead to additional rainfall chances by next weekend;
however, confidence is low at this time on when, where and how
much rainfall might occur as these smaller disturbances and
their tracks around the main upper level trough have not come
into agreement among ensemble and cluster data yet.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain showers will still affect DAN at through about 02z, but
should be dry the rest of the period, as confidence is higher
for less coverage of showers overnight. Am concerned that the
rain with some clearing/light winds will lead to either more fog
and/or stratus formation. Have kept it pessimistic at
LWB/BLF/BCB with IFR or lower later tonight, with slow
improvement by mid morning Sunday. ROA/LYH/DAN could also see
some lower cigs/vsbys as well around 06-12z. Drier air will lead
to mainly VFR for Sunday as winds turn northeast with a few
gusts to 20kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry and mainly VFR through Monday, with -SHRA/-TSRA and sub-
VFR conditions developing again at times Monday night through
Wednesday. Most activity is expected in the mountains and in
the afternoons and evenings. Thursday we could see some
lingering sub-VFR clouds and showers for the mountains.

Gusty SE and then SSW winds develop Monday night into Tuesday. Gusty
WNW winds are forecast again Wednesday and Thursday with a frontal
passage. These winds should stay below 25 knots.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP