Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS61 KRNK 151033
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
633 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Very small chance of upslope precipitation this
weekend.

Key Message 2: Warming trend next week could break record high
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Very small chance of upslope precipitation this
weekend.

Forecast for this upcoming weekend is mostly on track with the
exception of a lowered chance of precipitation. As mentioned in
previous forecasts, a large mid-level low pressure system centered
over New England will continue to move northeastward. This will
permit some mostly zonal flow (slightly oriented southwest to
northeast) and direct some 500mb perturbations to pass through by
this weekend. The trajectory of these shortwaves look to be a little
further north than in past models. This will result in precipitation
development concentrated in the mountainous areas of our West
Virginia counties. Still, these rainfall chances are still very low
(<25%) due to dry conditions and a lack of synoptic scale lift. The
most likely weather change from these disturbances will be increased
cloud cover.


Key Message 2: Warming trend next week could break record high
temperatures.

Next week gets a little heated. A large mid-level trough developing
over the Rockies will also have ridging building over the east coast
by early next week. Around the same time frame, a surface level
high will move to our south and position itself in the Atlantic.
This setup will direct low level winds from the southwest and
send warmer and moist air to our region. All these features
combined will result in a significant warming trend that will be
in stark contrast from the recent cool temperatures. The warm
temperatures will be felt by Sunday but will likely reach their
peak Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Early in the work week,
early morning temperatures may be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points will also
be in the 50s and 60s. These air temperatures will reach
climatological highs and may break some records. While these
conditions will be no where near Heat Advisory criteria, the
sudden onset of hot conditions may affect those who are
sensitive.

The duration of the warming trend is uncertain given continual model
disagreement on a cold front that may or may not pass through by the
middle of next week. Models are in agreement with a surface low
developing and moving northeast in the Great Plains and into Canada
and dragging a cold front with it. However, the influence of the
surface high over the Atlantic, as well as its 850mb counterpart
above it, may act as a barrier to the front. The cold front may be
stalled before crossing or may orient itself zonally and become
stationary to our north. Unless the front passes, the warming trend
will persist. This system will be monitored in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals this morning.
These conditions look to last at all terminals through the
period. There is a possibility that some river valley fog may
impact LWB this morning briefly; however, confidence is low in
this occurring at this time. Some river valley fog is evident on
satellite this morning across portions of southern WV and SW
Virginia.

Northwest winds around 5 knots look to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period as high pressure builds over the
region. By the end of the TAF period, light and variable winds
are expected as high pressure is forecast to be over the region.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will continue to be the dominating feature through the
weekend as the aforementioned high pressure over the region on
Friday slides east off the Southeast coastline towards Bermuda. This
will impose a southerly/southwesterly wind across the region by
Saturday. Some embedded disturbances in the upper level flow pattern
may lead to some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across
mountain terminals on Saturday and Sunday; however, chances remain
quite low at this time, and VFR conditions are predominantly
expected to remain across all terminals.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...EB