Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

684
FXUS61 KRNK 292325
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday, with a cold
air wedge building in for the weekend.

1) The current period of dry and clear weather ends Friday into
early next week with increasing chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks Friday,
with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend.

A broad sub-tropical ridge now over the Gulf coast states will
move east and build north into the interior Mid-Atlantic the
next couple of days. Our recent period of cooler and dry
northerly flow will be replaced by southwest winds/WAA tomorrow
through Friday. This will mean an increase in temperatures, with
some locations reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s in the
Piedmont and around larger urban areas like Roanoke tomorrow
through Friday.

It looks like a brief CAD event develops for the weekend. Expect
Increasing clouds and rain chances to suppress temperatures on
Saturday, with frontal passages ushering in even cooler weather
for Sunday into Monday, with highs in the 60s and 70s. The wedge
looks to break down on Tuesday with sunshine
returning...however cooler temperatures remain.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends
Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain.

Cooler and dry northerly flow will be replaced by southwest
winds and slowly increasing moisture through Friday. By then,
the sub-tropical ridge will be suppressed as a mean trough axis
approaches from the west. Most of the cyclonic energy will stay
to our north, but it will help drive a surface low and frontal
system into the area for the weekend. Several ensemble members
hold precip off until Friday evening, as it will take some time
for the atmosphere to regain moisture. Once it does, it looks
like some pretty significant rainfall totals could be realized
over the weekend. A lot of this rain will fall in showers and
storms associated with a couple cold frontal passages, with the
last one exiting to our south sometime Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are observed areawide, with a mid level cloud
layer mostly over the central and south central parts of VA.
Overnight, expect a mix of stratus and fog as moisture returns
to the region, with conditions between MVFR and IFR for most,
but IFR to LIFR for the western terminals where cloud cover
looks to be denser and ceilings lower. Conditions improve to VFR
between 13 to 15Z for all terminals. High clouds move into the
area from the west by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will go calm overnight, becoming west to southwesterly by
the afternoon, and more southerly by the evening. Wind speed
staying around 5 knots or lower through the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions through Friday,
except for morning fog in mountain and river valleys. By Friday
afternoon and evening, expect increasing cloud cover and
precipitation through the weekend, with low stratus, fog, and
moderate rain brings periods MVFR or lower conditions,
especially Saturday and Sunday.

NE to E winds develop over the weekend for TAF sites east of the
Blue Ridge as cold air damming begins. Winds will be more
variable over the mountains initially before turning ESE
Saturday night. Some gusts expected but nothing over 20 kts
except in thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...AS/SH