Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

075
FXUS61 KRNK 022341
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
641 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick-moving low pressure system will track south of the area
tomorrow, bringing the chance for a few flakes early on, but a
quick transition to rain should prevent any accumulation.  Dry
conditions return by Sunday, and the area looks to remain dry
through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. A cold and wet day is in store for most along and south of I-64
on Saturday.

2. A few flakes early on for folks along and north of 460 are
expected to quickly transition to all rain by the mid morning
hours.

Seeing some virga on radar this evening, mainly over NC, as a
low pressure system makes its approach to towards the Carolinas
along a stationary boundary draped west to east from the
ArkLaTex region to the VA/NC coastline. Plenty of orographic
clouds along and east of the Blue Ridge as well. Cloud cover
will increase and lower after midnight, which could hamper
nighttime cooling, so lows may be more on the mild side. Only
main update to the forecast this evening was to adjust high
temperatures tomorrow down a degree or two under a pseudo wedge
pattern.

Previous discussion below...


As of 200 PM EST Friday...

A low pressure system is expected to track through central
Alabama and Georgia on Saturday, which will bring rain showers
to much of the area along and south of 460 in Virginia. Ensemble
guidance has shifted towards this surface low tracking further
south through the aforementioned corridor, whereas previous
guidance suggested a further north track through northern
Georgia and South Carolina. Given this slightly further south
track of the surface low pressure system, the chances for rain
north of the Virginia and North Carolina border have decreased,
and have become around 20% or less for areas north of 460. With
precipitation chances decreasing across areas north of 460, so
has the chance for snow showers with this system, as
temperatures south of 460 will generally be too warm for much
more than a rain snow mix. Most CAM guidance suggests that a
cold rain is expected for areas south of 460, with a 2-3 degree
warm nose at 850mb plus surface temperatures generally look to
run around 34-36 degrees. Overall, minimal impacts are expected
across the area, as even HREF guidance has a less than 20%
chance of even 0.1 inches of new snow accumulations forecast
through Saturday evening for areas along and north of 460.
Regardless, a few flakes can`t be ruled out early on across the
area prior to warm air at the 850mb level scouring out any
prolonged event. Precipitation looks to end across the area by
the 7-8pm timeframe for Piedmont locations, and 2-3pm for
mountain locations.

With a Pseudo cold air damming event in place tomorrow,
temperatures will generally climb into the low 40s areawide,
with NC counties possibly reaching the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather expected for the entire period.

2) Near-normal temperatures Sunday rise to above normal on Monday.

A low pressure system will be across the Carolinas Saturday night,
moving offshore into the Atlantic. A few stray showers may linger in
the Eastern Piedmont initially, but quickly clear out overnight.
High pressure across the Midwest then builds into the area for
Sunday, with northwest flow keeping cool temperatures around. The
high shifts into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Monday, with the
clockwise flow turning winds to the south late in the day, with
temperatures rising as a result. Dry weather continues through the
end of the period.

High temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal, with 30s
to low 40s for the mountains and upper 40s to around 50 across the
Piedmont. By Monday, as the flow turns southerly, highs rise into
the 40s to around 50 degrees area-wide. Overnight lows remain
consistent, in the 20s to low 30s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Mountain rain showers possible mid to late week, more widespread
rain chances Friday.

2) Well above normal temperatures expected each day.

The upper-level pattern will become zonal across most of the CONUS
next week, with quiet weather expected to persist through late week.
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will be across the
Southeastern US and into the Western Atlantic. This synoptic setup
will allow for strong southwesterly flow across our area, acting as
a blow torch to increase temperatures to well above average. Highs
could be near 15 degrees above average mid to late next week.
Although dry conditions will be across most of the area, the western
mountains could see light rain showers midweek as a weak cold front
moves through. Rain showers remain possible through the end of the
period as the front moves back north of the area, keeping the Mid-
Atlantic in the warm sector as the next system approaches heading
into Friday. Models have been inconsistent with how strong the late
week system will be and how quickly it advances east into our area,
but regardless, the next best chance of rain will be Friday into
next weekend.

Temperatures continue to rise through the period, with well above
average highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s each day. Lows will stay
consistent, generally in the 40s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions across the area so far this evening, though
plenty of orographic cirrus has developed along and east of the
Blue Ridge over the past few hours, with some virga seen on
radar in the southern half of the area, mainly over NC.
Ceilings will start to gradually lower and cloud cover will
increase after 06Z or so Saturday, but remaining VFR until at
least 18Z, when MVFR ceilings reach KDAN, KBCB, and KBLF. KDAN
and KBLF will drop to IFR after 21Z, with ceilings 1kft or less
at KDAN. Could see MVFR ceilings as far north as KROA and KLYH,
though confidence is lower for those terminals. These ceilings
will clear out quickly after the end of the current TAF period,
00Z Sunday, and VFR conditions will return to the area.

Rain is expected to accompany the low ceilings with the passage
of a low pressure system to the south of the area, with the
highest probabilities of precipitation along and south of VA/NC
state line, and so have included -RA for KDAN. Could see
precipitation begin as a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow north of
US 460 and south of Interstate 64, but this will be short-
lived, and there is some uncertainty in how far north the
precipitation will make it, and so have only included VCSH in
the TAFs for the other terminals at this time, excluding KLWB,
where confidence is lowest in precip.

Winds will turn northeast/easterly overnight tonight, but will
remain light, generally 5 knots or less, through the TAF period.

Forecast confidence is moderate.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widespread VFR conditions return Sunday, persisting through the
middle of next week. Mountain showers are possible mid week,
which may result in sub VFR conditions west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AS/BMG/EB