Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS61 KRNK 071832
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
232 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered dewpoints to be more in line with MOS.
Gridded guidance is too high. Remainder of the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Sub-freezing temperatures tonight to impact vegetation where
the growing season has begun in the Piedmont and Roanoke
Valleys. Repeat possible Wednesday night.

2. Weather remains dry into the weekend with warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sub-freezing temperatures tonight to impact vegetation
where the growing season has begun in the Piedmont and Roanoke
Valleys. Repeat possible Wednesday night.

Cold dry high pressure will settle over the region providing
clear skies and an opportunity for good radiational cooling
conditions at night. The airmass is dry with dewpoints forecast
in the teens the next two days. Air temperatures will have
little heat support, making for some really cool nights.

Temperatures dropping below freezing for a few hours in the
mountains and also from the Roanoke and Southern Shenandoah
Valley east to the Central VA Piedmont around Lynchburg can be
expected tonight, and again Wednesday night. With the growing
season started from Roanoke and Lexington east, a freeze
warning is in effect to account for the sub-freezing temps.
Farther south in the foothills and southside VA piedmont lows
may drop to around 32, but an extended period of sub-freezing
temperatures are not anticipated. Given the poor humidity
recovery tonight (due to the dry airmass) along with some
residual northeast wind, thinking patchy frost with greatest
coverage in the creek bottoms where there is a source of
moisture. Winds are forecast to be lighter Wednesday night
along with higher Rh, so a better opportunity for frost
Wednesday night. Even though the growing season hasn`t started
in the mountains those that have tempted fate and planted
sensitive vegetation should take precautions as well.

As the ol saying goes, if you ain`t from around here ask the
locals when to plant. Rule of thumb, especially for the
mountains, wait until after Mother`s Day to plant your tomatoes.
More scientifically, watch the foliage on the trees. Once the
Oaks have formed a canopy of leaves, then you have a greater
probability of going frost free. Trees know best.


Key Message 2: Dry with a warming trend into the weekend.

Dry weather is expected to persist into the weekend as high
pressure dominates the weather. As the high moves east of the
region this weekend will see a gradual warming trend with
increasing southwest flow...Should have temperatures back to the
70s and low 80s for the weekend. There is a weak front that may
tease the area Saturday. Models show it approaching the area
from the Ohio Valley, then falling apart as it crosses the
mountains. Attm, only entertaining low chance for showers across
the northern part of the CWA, along and north of highway 460 on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure will keep VFR flight conditions in place
through the entire TAF period, though northerly winds will remain
gusty through this evening around 15-20 knots for all terminals.
Winds will shift to the northeast tonight and eventually to the east
Wednesday morning as the high shifts eastward. Winds do lighten some
overnight tonight, though gusts up to 15 knots will still be
possible at DAN/LYH due to a high pressure wedge. Patchy frost may
occur in spots where winds do remain light as temperatures plunge to
near to below freezing. Clear skies and breezy conditions are again
expected on Wednesday, though wind gusts will be slightly lighter
than today, between 10-15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR flight conditions will continue for the rest of the week,
as the aforementioned high pressure sticks around. Winds will
generally remain light, with little to no impact on terminals.
No rain is expected until at least Saturday, when a weak cold
front reaches the mountains. This front could bring MVFR cigs
and light showers to terminals west of the Blue Ridge, if it
holds together, but confidence in this is low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry High pressure will be over the area for the remainder of
the week. This will result in an extended period of drying
with no chance of rain until at least Saturday, and even
Saturday`s chance does not look meaningful. The airmass that
is over the area is very dry. Humidity minimums will likely
test 20%, and in some areas dip into the teens during the
afternoon, especially south facing slopes. Winds will diminish
as high pressure passes overhead Wednesday and Thursday. In
spite of the diminishing wind, a variance may be required for
prescribed fire due to the low humidity forecast.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ022>024-
     034-035-045>047.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PM