Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS61 KRNK 051805
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
205 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated forecast given recent guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of this week
and into upcoming weekend with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms with marginal risks of excessive rainfall for all
or portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of
this week and into upcoming weekend with daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms with marginal risks of excessive
rainfall for all or portions of the area.

As the previous upper cutoff low has dampened into the large
scale flow aloft the area will remain between the Bermuda high
off to the east and a upper longwave trough to the west. This
setup allows for an ongoing south to southwesterly fetch
maintaining ample deep layer moisture advecting northward. With
no sign of any main feature or wave traversing across the area,
the forcing mechanism for convection will largely be daytime
heating and orographic lift keeping the greatest chances across
the mountains each day through the rest of the work week. High
PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range will support hydrometeor
loading within showers and storms to be efficient rain producers
and allow for isolated flash flooding potential as well. See the
hydrology section below for more details.

A weak shortwave along more zonal flow is progged to approach
the area Saturday into Saturday night that may focus more
widespread or organized convection, otherwise chances for
showers and storms decrease some for Sunday into next week
though development is still possible mainly in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening
may reduce vsbys or cause VRB gusts for most of the sites, then
for overnight into tomorrow morning expect IFR and lower cigs
to develop across most of the sites as well along with typical
valley fog and reduced vsby potential for LWB. Winds becoming
south to southwest under 10 kts during the daytime periods and
light to calm in the overnight. Scattered showers and storms
expected again for tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend
with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with
greatest concentration within the mountain valleys.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the next several
days. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a
moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week.
Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular
location.

PWAT values expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00"
range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient
rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban
areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly
susceptible to flash flooding.

Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across
the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits
across the Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/PM
HYDROLOGY...PM