Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

043
FXUS61 KRNK 161824
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence increasing that Thursday will be day to watch for
strong to severe thunderstorms for our CWA.

Confidence increasing that we may see our first named tropical
storm of the season.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry through Wednesday then unsettled weather for
Thursday into Friday. Heads up for severe storms.

2) Dry weekend followed by more chances for showers/storms
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mainly dry through Wednesday then unsettled
weather for Thursday into Friday. Heads up for severe storms.

A busy upper air pattern, featuring split flow, with an active
northern stream spinning vigorous short wave troughs across the
northern tier of the CONUS, and an active southern stream with
tropical moisture streaming across the Gulf coast and a
potential tropical storm in the making for the South Texas
Coast. In spite of the business, our forecast area resides
within the split between the two streams with dry weather
ongoing and expectation that it will persist through Wednesday.


While we enjoy one more day of hazard free weather, a volatile
environment for severe storms is expected to develop to our
northwest across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Please
pay attention to the evolution of this upstream weather event
because it may have downstream implication for our weather on
Thursday. A particularly intense, by June standards, mid/upper
level trough is progged to traverse our neighbors to the
northwest with a 60-80 kt westerly 500 mb jet streak yielding
low level shear profiles that favor fast moving long tracked
supercells. Although modified (not as extreme), this environment
will translate downstream toward our area Thursday with
850-700mb winds progged in the 40 to 50 kt range and low level
shear profiles that will support organized thunderstorm line
segments or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging winds in
addition to a few shorter track supercells. For our CWA thinking
WV/VA along and north of Hwy 460 into the northern Mid-Atlantic
will experience the highest risk for strong to severe storms.

Meanwhile along the South Texas coast, a circulation has
developed with increasing confidence that it will develop into a
tropical storm. Still too early tell how much if any influence
this will have on our weather Thursday, but once you have a
bonafide circulation, there will be tendency to deviate from
the overall flow pattern. Attm think moisture associated with
this feature will remain mainly south of our region Thursday,
but may impact our North Carolina counties Thursday night into
Friday. Best possible scenario for rain Thursday night and
Friday would be for the northern stream front to slow or stall
over our area as the remnants of the tropical system pass
across the southeast states. This would create a convergence
zone with potential to reap benefits of some needed rainfall.
This of course is the best scenario for rain. If tropical system
remains too compact it may pass us by to the south with little
or no fanfare.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weekend but more storm chances early next
week.

High pressure follows the front Saturday into Sunday. Models
agree on a broad trough over the Great Lakes into the mid-MS
Valley heading into Monday swinging through the mountains early
next week. This feature with the front and good moisture
advection should provide another opportunity for showers and
storms, but like previous systems, fronts that come from the
northwest favor the mountains (esp western slopes) for rainfall
and to a much lesser extent east of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecasted through most of the 16/18Z TAF period,
with a brief period of fog possible at LWB between 10Z and 12Z
Wednesday morning, depending on the extent of mid and high clouds
across the region.

Cannot rule out sprinkles/light showers in vicinity of LYH this
evening, but believe this activity will remain isolated in coverage,
and confidence is high in minimal impact to flying conditions.

Winds will remain less than 10kts this afternoon and tonight, with
west-southwesterly gusts increasing into the 12kt to 18kt range
after 15Z Wednesday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

An approaching cold front will trigger increased coverage of showers
and thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday. Dry conditions are
forecasted for Saturday as high pressure brings northwesterly winds
with gusts to 25kts at ridgetop level.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...NF