Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS61 KRNK 130620
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening
along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.

2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain
for this weekend.

3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by
the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.

Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today
(Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance
suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which
will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain
amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to
get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher
elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may
arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in
the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE
struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the
cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm
initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear
of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms
capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center
recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas
along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat.
The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight
tonight.


Key Message 2: Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain
for this weekend.

A surface high pressure system follows today`s storms to bring
another quiet period of weather. The center of this system will
progress eastward and head into the Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance
shows a shortwave zonally moving through the Mid-Alantic sometime
this weekend. This shortwave could provide another round of
precipitation for the area, but confidence with this event is low.
Timing will be everything as the influence of the surface high may
prevent widespread convection. Air temperatures and dew points will
be recovering by this weekend, but if the shortwave arrives too
soon, it may not coincide with the ideal setup for storm
development. In addition, there is a serious lack of wind shear that
would promote storm organization. At this point in the forecast,
only a modest chance of rain can be offered for areas along and west
of the Blue Ridge.

Key Message 3: Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by
the middle of next week.

The weather will feel more like summer by next week as mid-level
ridging builds, heights rise, and temperatures jump. High
temperatures for early next week may get into the 80s for most of
the region and even the lower 90s for the Piedmont. Dew points will
likely get into the 60s as lower level and surface southwesterly
winds direct warmer and moist air from the south to the rest of the
east coast. The duration of this warm trend is threatened by a
surface low dragging a cold front through by the middle of next
week. This far off, it is difficult to ascertain whether this front
will pass through the area or move around us to our north. Given
deteriorating drought conditions, the front could be the catalyst to
providing the best amount of rainfall this season. The warm and
moist conditions will set the stage for an unstable environment and
with PWATs possibly approaching up to 1.5", a good dose of rain
could be in the making. Granted, we are still about a week away so
confidence in this coming into fruition remains very low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the forecast period;
however, with the passage of a cold front throughout the afternoon
and evening on Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected at all terminals. These showers and thunderstorms may lead
to brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they move within the
vicinity of any terminal. Outside of these showers and
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to remain for much of the
TAF period.

Winds will predominantly be out of the southwest at around 10-15
knots, with gusts up to 20 knots at times throughout the afternoon.
Once the front passes the area around the 00-03 UTC timeframe, winds
look to transition to out of the northwest, and look to maintain
winds in the 5-10 knot range, with gusts remaining up to 20
knots.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Northwest flow behind the cold front leading into Thursday morning
looks to lead to some upslope cloud development at BLF and LWB
starting early Thursday morning in the 09-12 UTC timeframe. These
restrictions at these two terminals look to remain through the late
morning hours on Thursday before lifting throughout the afternoon
hours. All other terminals look to remain VFR during this time
period. High pressure looks to settle over the region by Friday
returning VFR conditions to BLF and LWB. Isolated afternoon mountain
showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this weekend as flow
becomes more southerly/southwesterly once again.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...EB