Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

501
FXUS61 KRNK 110705
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
305 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal Risk for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showery and stormy pattern continues through
Saturday night.

A quasi-stationary cold front will stretch across the region,
anchoring itself from northern Texas through Kentucky into
central West Virginia and northern Virginia. Early this morning,
an initial wave riding along this boundary will push showers
through northern West Virginia and into Maryland. Once this lead
wave and its rain clear to the east, the front will sink
slightly further south, allowing showers to drift over
Greenbrier and the Allegheny Highlands around sunrise.
Meanwhile, a second wave lingering over Memphis, Tennessee, will
begin tracking just north of the local area. This system will
push the frontal boundary even further south while interacting
with intense afternoon heat in the upper 80s to mid-90s and
oppressive dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This
destabilization will trigger showers and scattered thunderstorms
throughout the afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and east of
the Blue Ridge under a Marginal Risk for severe weather today.
Although the storms will lack organization, they will remain
capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead,
a third and final wave will arrive on Saturday, bringing
widespread rainfall. While severe potential will persist into
Saturday, its exact placement will depend on whether the
boundary sinks fully south of the area or stalls overhead. Flash
flooding will pose a localized threat with each passing wave,
with the risk peaking during Saturday`s rain as the ground
becomes thoroughly saturated.

Sunday through Tuesday look quieter with mostly dry weather,
and this quiet stretch may even last longer than that. We will
see a similar set up with a slow-moving, strung out front to our
north for mid week into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will slowly approach the region today, bringing an
increase in high clouds throughout the morning hours. These
thick clouds will suppress widespread fog formation, though KLWB
will remain the sole exception. Rain showers linked to the
incoming front will move across KLWB beginning around sunrise.
As the afternoon unfolds under light southwest to west winds,
strong atmospheric instability will trigger strong storms at
KBCB and KROA, with the severe activity shifting toward KLYH and
KDAN by late afternoon into the evening, though confidence in
the exact timing remains low.

Overnight, the frontal boundary will stall over portions of the
area, creating a distinct ceiling split. Locations north of the
stalled front will fall into IFR or lower cloud coverage, while
areas to the south will hover between MVFR and low-end VFR
conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain and thunderstorm activity will redevelop on Saturday and
persist through late Saturday night, finally tapering off during
the early hours of Sunday morning. This system will bring
widespread sub- VFR conditions marked by periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall, reduced ceilings, localized fog, and gusty,
erratic winds near any active thunderstorms. Once the system
exits, drier conditions and widespread VFR weather will return
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS