Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KRNK 270042
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
742 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight in the wake
of a cold front, ushering in gusty winds and much colder air
for Thanksgiving Day. Cooler and dry conditions remain in place
through Saturday. Rain chances, and even some snow return again
by Sunday as another low pressure system approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...

The main updates this evening are for a slight adjustment for
wind gusts based on current trends as chilly high pressure
builds across the lower Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a recent
cold front. Also adjusted overnight temperatures a degree or two
warmer, more so across the mountains, given that gusty winds
through the night will keep the atmosphere well mixed, and
clouds building in will help limit radiational cooling.


As of 1210 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Strong winds this evening into Thanksgiving morning.

2) Cold air settles in tonight, with lows below freezing for
most.

A shot of cold air on strong low level winds arrives this
evening into the overnight. Latest round of models suggest a
45-50kt jet at 8h moving across this evening. Given the holiday
travel, have expanded the wind advisory to include the rest of
the Blue Ridge into the Alleghanys including the I-81 corridor
from Pulaski to Lexington, VA. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be
common, with an occasional gust over 45 mph, especially higher
ridges and between mountain passes. Though clouds will increase,
airmass should be very dry, though would not be surprised to
have some flurries across the mountains of WV tonight.

Winds will start to weaken during the day Thanksgiving but it
will stay brisk. After lows in the 20s to lower 30s tonight,
readings will only manage to rise 10 degrees in the mountains to
the 30s, with mid 40s to near 50 east due to some downsloping
aiding in warming.

Confidence is moderate to high in the near term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Cold and windy Friday, only a few degrees warmer Saturday.
Single digit wind chills possible Friday morning in the
mountains.

2. Dry and mostly clear through the period.

A deep 500mb trough will be pulling away from the area by
Friday, with surface high pressure building into the area from
the west, though the incoming airmass originates in southern
Canada. This airmass will cause temperatures to drop
significantly Thursday night into Friday morning, with most of
the area seeing some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills
since last winter. A tightening pressure gradient between the
departing surface low and incoming high, with the combination of
strong cold air advection and an 850mb jet between 40 and 45
knots, will result in gusty winds late Thursday night into
Friday. HREF probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 40 mph
Thursday night into Friday are around 60% for most of the
mountains, and over 70% probabilities for gusts greater than 50
mph for the highest elevations in northwest NC.

As mentioned, temperatures will plummet by the end of the work
week, in the wake of a cold front. Friday and Saturday will see
temperatures in only the first percentile, relative to the 30
year climatology. Highs on Friday will barely escape the low 30s
along and west of the Blue Ridge, with some places stuck in the
20s, though low 40s are expected in the east. Strong winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chills in the single
digits in the mountains, possibly near/below zero at the highest
peaks, like Mount Rogers VA, Friday morning.

Slightly warmer on Saturday, with highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s. Lows will be coldest Saturday morning, in the teens and
20s, as the surface high moves more overhead Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Wintry mix possible Sunday morning.

2. More precipitation chances Tuesday, with potential for more
wintry precipitation.

A low pressure system will move from the southern Plains
towards the Midwest and Great Lakes by early Sunday and push
another cold front towards the area, bringing in enough moisture
from the Gulf for widespread chances of precipitation. With
cold enough air in place at the onset of the precipitation, will
initially see a mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain, mainly
for the higher elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge,
before changing over to all rain. At this time, NBM
probabilities of greater than 0.25" of 24 hour liquid
precipitation accumulations through Monday morning are between
30% and 40% west of a line from Lynchburg VA to Danville VA.
Western Greenbrier County WV has a 30% chance of a tenth of an
inch of snowfall through Monday morning.

This system moves out of the area by Monday, though another low
pressure system follows closely behind, after organizing in the
Gulf Coast states and then tracking northeastward across the
Carolinas and into the Atlantic Tuesday. The exact track of the
low will influence the dominate precipitation type expected for
the region, as that will impact where and for how long the cold
air and moisture can mingle at the onset of the event. There is
a large spread in temperatures for Tuesday morning, ranging from
25 degrees to 34 degrees at Blacksburg, VA, as one example to
highlight the uncertainty in precipitation type this far out.
Once this low moves away from the area, another surface high
will move into the region, with another cold airmass, though not
nearly as cold as late Thanksgiving week. High temperatures
will range from the upper 30s to low 40s in the west, and upper
40s to low 50s in the east through the period, and lows in the
20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 27/00Z TAF
period, though a brief period of MVFR ceilings is forecast for
BLF during the 03Z to 07Z period, which could also impact LWB
briefly.

Westerly winds will be the main challenge through the TAF
period, with sustained winds overnight of 12kt to 17kt across
the mountains, and 8kt to locally 15kt across the Piedmont.
Gusts from 25kts to locally 45kts will also be possible,
particularly along the higher ridges from the Blue Ridge
westward. The strongest winds will occur overnight, and will
then gradually diminish through Thursday afternoon and evening
as the center of high pressure arrives from the west.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Breezy northwesterly winds linger into early Friday before
finally relaxing for the weekend. High pressure will keep dry
weather and VFR conditions in place through Saturday night. By
Sunday, the next low pressure system will approach, which could
bring sub-VFR conditions back to the area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for VAZ011-013>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for WVZ044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NF/WP