Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

856
FXUS61 KRNK 190707
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
307 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Updated for 06 UTC.

Frost Advisory has been issued for much of SE West Virginia and
a Freeze Warning has been issued for Western Greenbrier county
for Sunday night into Monday morning.

Wind Advisory remains in effect Sunday from 6am til 4pm for the
southern Blue Ridge from Floyd County, VA to Watauga County,
NC, for gusts 45-50 mph.



&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Limited chances for mountain showers through the
weekend. Better chances for more widespread rainfall next
weekend.

2. Strong post-frontal winds Sunday with gusts 45 to 50 mph
along the southern Blue Ridge.

3. Cooler Sunday behind the front, with frost/freeze possible
tonight, but especially Monday night, then warming up mid to
late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Limited chances for mountain showers through the
weekend. Better chances for more widespread rainfall next
weekend.

Behind the frontal passage today, surface high pressure will quickly
build in, bringing an end to any lingering rainfall. Consensus among
short range models is for rain to continue east into the Piedmont,
and for shower coverage to increase as the front nears eastern VA.
Rainfall amounts thus have trended slightly up for parts of the
central VA Piedmont, but closer to two tenths of an inch. So, while
a little bit more rain may come, it will still not bring much
improvement to the ongoing drought in those areas.

A secondary front reaches the far northwestern parts of the forecast
area late tonight, and with colder air in place, could see some snow
flurries in parts of the southeast WV mountains, though
accumulations will be light, if any, given how warm ground
temperatures have been.

Beyond that secondary front, a broad area of surface high pressure
expands over most of the eastern US, and 500mb flow turns
northwesterly as the trough departs to the east, and dry weather
will ensue for the first half of the work week. By midweek, another
front drops southward towards the area, but shower and thunderstorm
chances appear limited to the northern half of the forecast area at
this time, so north of the New River Valley. NBM probability for
24hr rainfall amounts at least 0.10" through Thursday morning are
between 10% and 30% north of US 460 to the northern border of the
CWA. South of US 460 has less than a 10% chance to see that much
rain.

However, another, stronger front approaches the area from the west
by the weekend. The surface high moves offshore, and surface flow
turns more southwesterly, so can tap into some moisture from the
Gulf and from the Atlantic. Does not look to be anonymously
high moisture, PWATs are briefly near the 90th percentile
relative to climatology early Saturday, but at least looks to be
more moisture than this region has seen received, with forecast
soundings showing PWATs near 1.25". NBM probs for a tenth of an
inch of rain through Sunday morning are over 55% areawide, and
between 40% to 50% for 0.25" inches of rain across the area.




KEY MESSAGE 2: Post-frontal winds gusting 35 to 50 mph, wind
advisory southern Blue Ridge Sunday starting at 6am.

Models showing decent pressure rises behind the front with
strong cold advection. Coupled with a 45kt jet, appears our
southern Blue Ridge could have gusts 45-50 mph from Floyd to
Watauga starting around dawn Sunday then leveling off by early
afternoon.

Key Message 3: Cooler Sunday behind the front, with frost/freeze possible
tonight, but especially Monday night, then warming up mid to
late week.

Cooler temperatures advecting into the region behind the cold
front today and through the overnight hours tonight will lead to
the possibility of frost and freeze conditions across portions
of SE West Virginia tonight. Some patchy frost can`t be ruled
out across portions of SW Virginia. While frost development
potential is on the lower side tonight given elevated winds and
lower RH values, sheltered locations may develop isolated
patches of frost tonight across the regions mentioned above.
Given this potential, a Frost Advisory has been issued for much
of SE West Virginia, and a Freeze Warning has been issued for
western Greenbrier county, where temperatures look to dip below
freezing tonight.

Additional frost and freeze headlines may be necessary Monday
night into Tuesday as surface high pressure settles over the
region leading to clear skies and calm winds. Low temperatures
Monday night look to dip to near or below freezing for the
entire region.

Warmer temperatures return Tuesday as the upper level ridge
builds back into the region.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Scattered showers along a passing cold front will bring periodic
MVFR CIGs and VSBYs to mountain terminals through the remainder
of the overnight and early morning hours. MVFR CIGs look to
linger at all mountain terminals through at least the 15-18 UTC
timeframe today, before westerly/northwesterly winds advect
drier air into the region. This will return VFR conditions back
into the region by 18 UTC for all terminals. Occasional sub-VFR is
possible as far east as ROA but shower activity and lower CIGs
don`t look to impact LYH/DAN.


Winds tonight have already started to shift to out of the
west/northwest, and will continue to do so through the remainder
of the overnight and early morning hours. by 12 UTC, wind gusts
of 20-35kts are likely at ROA/BCB/BLF, and LWB. These gusts will
slide east through the morning hours to LYH and DAN; however,
look to remain in the 20-25kt range. Gusts look to diminish
towards 00 UTC Monday as gradient winds start to calm across the
region.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A secondary front enters the area Monday and could bring near
sub-VFR at LWB/BLF Sunday night-Monday morning but in general
VFR is expected through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong west to northwest winds should dry fuels efficiently
Sunday afternoon, though temps will be cooler than today. Still
RH dropping to as low as 15 to 25 percent will lead to quick
drying of fine fuels today.

Monday appears just as dry and with another day of drying could
be a day where wildfire spread is higher with RH values again
dropping into the teens along/east of the Blue Ridge and 20-27
percent in the mountains.

The rest of the week appears mostly dry, with temps warming up
after Tuesday back to above normal values.

The next widespread rain chances won`t return to the area until
next Saturday/Sunday.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for VAZ015>017.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/EB/WP
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...EB/WP