Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS61 KRNK 121744
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
144 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening
along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers/storms Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
few storms may be strong/severe in the mountains, especially
along/west of the Alleghany Front into WV.

2. Brief drop in temperatures Thursday, then warming to
summerlike temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday into
Wednesday night, some could be strong to severe. Scattered
storms return during the weekend into early next week with
moisture/humidity increasing.

An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates
southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold
front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F
will contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures
warm during the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the
front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with
additional storms forming due to topographic forcing in the
central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to become steep in the afternoon peaking in
the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should support a threat for
isolated severe wind gusts.

Present indications suggest main severe threat will be late in
the afternoon/early evening across the VA Highlands, west into
West Virginia, and possible as far east as the Blue Ridge north
of Roanoke. Confidence is low on severe weather given lacking
instability, so only a marginal risk at this time.

High pressure moves into the area behind the front, bringing dry
weather to end the work week. As the center of the high moves
offshore by the weekend and some ridging starts to expand into the
area, will see increasing warm air and moisture advection via the
south to southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase during the afternoons over the weekend, but will be mainly
terrain driven across the mountains, with no strong forcing
mechanism to prompt more organization to the storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Brief drop in temperatures Thursday, then warming to
summerlike temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

Upper trough/closed mid level low heads to the east coast by
Friday morning. Could be another case where we see some lows in
the 30s in the mountains with potential for frost Friday
morning.

However, by the weekend, the pattern flips, with increasing 500mb
heights. The surface high slides offshore, and the south to
southwesterly flow will advect warmer and more moist air into the
region. High temperatures will increase a few degrees each day,
starting Friday, when highs will be in the 60s and 70s, then 70s and
80s by Saturday, then 80s to near 90, low 90s in the Piedmont by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 18z Wednesday, with showers
approaching BLF/LWB by then but too far out to mention in tafs.
Ceilings should be around 4-6kft by 18z in the mountains with
scattered cumulus from ROA east. A few wind gusts from the
south-southwest to 20kts this afternoon, becoming light this
evening then shifting southwest to west by 18z Wed with another
few gusts to 20kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A cold front arrives to the region late Wednesday, which will bring
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and
evening at all terminals, with potential sub-VFR if storms move
over a terminal. Expect increased wind gusts in the 15-25 knot
range out of the southwest to west at all terminals during the
afternoon and into Wed night. With winds staying up not really
seeing much fog Wed night. VFR conditions look to return on
Thursday for most terminals; however, northwest flow behind the
cold front on Thursday morning may lead to some reduced CIGs and
MVFR conditions for BLF and LWB. These restrictions should lift
by the afternoon on Thursday, with VFR conditions expected
through the end of the work week. Isolated afternoon mountain
showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP