Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS61 KRNK 091800
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence in stronger and more widespread storms
Friday through Sunday.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A return to a busier, stormier pattern tomorrow through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A return to a busier, stormier pattern tomorrow
through the weekend.

Currently, mid and upper level ridging occupied the southern
half of the CONUS, while faster westerly flow was located
across the northern half. This ridging was helping to keep us
warm and dry, but starts to break down as early as tomorrow as a
band of westerlies shifts south from the Great Lakes/OH Valley
regions. Accompanying this will be a surface cold front, which
is expected to move into the Mid Atlantic region tomorrow
evening.

Except for daily afternoon cumulus and some passing cirrus,
skies have been clear today, allowing for deep mixing and
moderately drier conditions. Winds at the surface remain light
and WSW through tomorrow. After that, a cold front approaches
from the north tomorrow night, moving through WV and part of VA
before stalling in VA and NC Friday. Over the weekend, this
feature will lift north as a warm front.

As far as thunderstorm chances, we are outlooked for general
thunder by SPC Thursday through Sunday. We are also included
in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC over the
weekend given the slow-moving/stalling front along with high
PWATs, so isolated flash flooding will be possible. Shear for
storm organization looks weak Thursday with the front still to
the north, and expect isolated and multi- cells interacting via
outflows over SE WV. Isolated damaging winds will be possible
where/if storms can briefly take advantage and become severe.
Shear and instability both improve Friday and Saturday, and
these look like better chances for damaging winds and also flash
flooding, especially from the Blue Ridge westward.

Increasing warm air advection will allow temperatures to be
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal Thursday, resulting in
readings in the mid 80s to the mid 90s areawide. By Friday into
the weekend, abundant cloud cover will lower temperatures closer
to normal, with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s for
the mountains, and the 80s for the Piedmont for highs. Overnight
lows will also be about 4-6 degrees above normal with cloud
cover helping to keep temperatures warm. Does not look like we
will be very close to breaking any records during this warm
spell.

The relative humidity will also increase Friday through the
weekend, making it muggier. For Monday into Tuesday, we look
mostly dry, with a few showers/isolated storms possible for the
southern Blue Ridge. The next frontal passage will occur the
following Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions prevail across much of the region
through 10/18Z. The exception will be mountain river valley fog
and low stratus which will mainly impact LWB between 10/09 and
10/14Z. A cold front nearing from the north may also bring some
SHRA/TSRA to mainly LWB tomorrow around 15-18Z. BLF may see a
chance for SHRA/TSRA after 18Z tomorrow as well.

WSW winds of generally less than 8 kts with isolated gusts to
15 kts today will decrease to calm or light and variable
overnight. Tomorrow, expect increasing WSW winds ahead of the
front with more gusts to 15 to 20 kts for the mountains. Low
level wind shear is possible just outside the LWB vicinity
between 6 and 13Z, from about 260 degrees at 30 kts. Did not
seem to be close enough to include in the TAF at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect scattered showers and storms to continue closer to the
front tomorrow evening. Showers and storms then push there way
south into more of the forecast area Friday as the front drifts
south. The front then slows and stalls across southwest VA/NC,
creating a focus for widespread SHRA/TSRA. There will be some
decrease in activity overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning, then expect more showers and storms developing Saturday
afternoon and evening and again on Sunday as the front moves
north again as a warm front. This will bring widespread sub-VFR
conditions in periods of moderate to heavy rain, stratus, and
some fog in the evenings and overnights. Winds may be gusty and
erratic near thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH