Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS61 KRNK 091043
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
643 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall and gusty winds still expected to be the main impacts
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias
arrives over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias
arrives over the weekend.

High pressure will keep dry and warm conditions today, only
seeing increasing cloud cover throughout the day in advance of
Isaias. Will see highs above normal again..low to mid 70s by the
afternoon.

High pressure will begin to slide east by Saturday as the
remnants of Isaias approach the forecast area from the southwest.
This high pressure will wedge south east of the Appalachians as
rain moves into the region, keeping conditions on the cooler
side for Saturday and into a portion of Sunday. Rain should
begin across North Carolina sometime late Saturday morning and
then overspread the forecast areas throughout the day. Rain will
continue into Sunday morning, becoming a bit more scattered by
Sunday afternoon. Overall, this appears to be a widespread 1 to
2 inches, with lowest totals west of the Blue Ridge given
somewhat of a rain shadow effect.

Favored regions for higher totals look to be along portions of
the Blue Ridge as a 50-60kt southeasterly 850mb LLJ pushes into
the area as the remnants of Isaias move into the Tennessee
valley. Upslope flow from this LLJ will likely lead to increased
rainfall totals into the 2 to 4 inches range, with perhaps some
localized higher amounts particularly in northwest North
Carolina. This general area has the greatest concern for
flooding given the upslope enhancement, along with increasing
deep tropical moisture (PWAT values nearing 2"), which could
result in periods of higher intensity rain rates. Timeframe for
the highest rainfall rates based on REFS guidance will be late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Flood Watches may be
warranted in this area if trends continue to show the higher
rainfall potential.

The aforementioned 850mb LLJ may lead to a downslope wind event
for areas in SE West Virginia and SW Virginia. Right now,
forecast wind gusts are just below Wind Advisory criteria;
however, as high res CAM guidance comes into range, it is
possible that these forecasted wind gusts may increase across
mountain locations even as whats left of Isaias continues to
dissipate as it moves near the region.

Also, still watching trends Sunday afternoon with models now
hinting at high pressure retreating enough to allow for a brief
period of destabilization along a triple point in Central
Virginia, which could pose a brief tornado threat. Strong
Theta-E advection on the RRFS/NAM guidance shows this potential
rather well. Will not take much destablization to support
rotating low-topped supercells given 0-1km SRH exceeding
200m2s2 and Bulk Shear 40-50kts.

By late Monday, all remnants of Isaias look to be well east of
the region, with dry conditions returning areawide once again. A
possible dry frontal passage by the Tuesday night timeframe
looks to drop temperatures slightly through the middle of the
work week. Overall, the region will likely not see any rain
chances through most of next week after the remnants from
Isaias move through over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period for
all terminals. Only exception being brief river valley fog at
LWB for 1-2 hours this morning.

Overall, expect light winds of around 5 knots or less to
transition from northwesterly to northwest/northerly winds by
mid morning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep VFR conditions through Saturday morning.
Widespread rain arrives Saturday and will continue into Sunday.
Sub-VFR is likely during this period at all terminals. Gusty
northeast winds will increase overnight Saturday and into Sunday
for the Piedmont, and east/southeast for mountain locations.
Some gusts to 30kts possible for BLF and LWB. Conditions will
gradually improve on Monday, with VFR by Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/EB
AVIATION...BMG/WP