Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

817
FXUS61 KRNK 101758
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1258 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Increasing confidence in a cold snap beginning Thursday. Wind
chills drop below 15F Friday and Saturday nights in the
mountains.

Lowered temperatures a few degrees in the mountains for Friday
and Saturday given persistent low cloud cover and cold air
advection.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain returns Thursday, with a transition to upslope
snow showers for the mountains Friday. Colder temperatures into the
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain returns Thursday, with a transition to upslope
snow showers for the mountains Friday. Colder temperatures into the
weekend.

Dry weather will continue for a couple more days until rain
returns on Thursday, as a surface low pressure system brings a
cold front through the area as it pivots towards the northeast.
The surface low is forecast to track roughly along the eastern
seaboard northward into New England with some degree of
wraparound moisture maintaining precipitation chances over the
mountains in the favored upslope areas through the end of the
work week. With the associated 500mb trough lingering across the
eastern US through the end of the weekend, multiple shortwaves
traveling through the trough will bring reinforcing waves of
cold air. As this cold air reaches the area by Friday, expect a
transition from rain to snow over the mountain areas. Persistent
northwesterly flow will keep upslope snow showers in the West
Virginia mountains for a few days. Warm ground surface
temperatures will limit initial snowfall accumulations as snow
will likely melt on contact at first, but once the ground cools
enough as the event continues, could see some light
accumulations. Once the surface low pulls far enough away into
the Atlantic, the moisture return will gradually end and snow
flurries will diminish, by the Saturday afternoon to overnight
time frame. High pressure pushes into the region by Sunday, and
the remainder of the weekend will be dry, but cold.

Temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s for highs over the
mountains Friday and Saturday, and low 50s in the Piedmont. Cloud
cover over the western slopes will aid in keeping daytime
temperatures down, so may see those high temperatures trend a couple
degrees lower. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s
Thursday night/Friday morning, then widespread 20s through the
weekend. Gusty northwesterly winds will make these temperatures
feel even colder, especially after the above normal temperatures
that have been observed for the first half of the month. Be
sure to dress appropriately for the cold over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the valid TAF period, ending 18Z Wednesday. Gusty
westerly winds this afternoon, in the 15 to 20 knot range, will
diminish after sunset, going calm overnight and into Wednesday
morning. Winds turn more south to southwesterly by midday Wednesday,
and afternoon mixing could lead to some occasional stronger gusts.

Mostly clear skies through much of the period, but high clouds start
to reach the area by Wednesday afternoon, gradually increasing in
coverage through late Wednesday.

Some morning fog is possible for KLWB, but confidence is not very
high, so have opted to leave as a TEMPO for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain will reach the western portions of the forecast area by
around 06Z or so Thursday, continuing through the day,
especially for the west. Cold air arrives in the wake of the
system, and rain will begin to transition to snow for the
mountains by Friday morning. Gusty northwesterly winds, gusts
between 20 to 30 knots, will accompany the frontal passage, but
linger into the weekend.

MVFR or lower conditions are possible Thursday through at least
Friday across the mountains, mainly for KBLF and KLWB, with
persistent low clouds.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above normal temperatures and afternoon minimum RH values in
the upper 20s to mid 30s today, as well as westerly wind gusts
up to 15 knots, will lead to marginal fire weather concerns this
afternoon. Main areas for any concerns would be along the
ridges where winds could be on the higher end of the range, and
any southern facing slopes where locally lower RHs may be
observed.

While tree canopies have dropped most of their leaves and there
is plenty of fuel on the ground, much of the areas east of the
Blue Ridge have not experienced a widespread killing freeze
(although they may later this week) which would make for more
burnable, cured vegetation.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS
FIRE WEATHER...AS/SH