Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS61 KRNK 170833
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
333 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light snow and glaze of ice possible for parts of the mountains
this morning. No changes in headlines at this time.

Refreshed forecast based on latest guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Light frozen precip this morning for the mountains.

2. Chance for snow Sunday in the Piedmont.

3. Very cold temperatures and wind chills on Monday/Tuesday.

4. Late week system will bring the next chance of
precipitation, but impacts are still unclear.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Light frozen precip this morning for the mountains.

A weak disturbance traversing the upper longwave trough and a
lingering moisture axis will bring a chance of some light frozen
precip mainly to the mountains this morning. Thermal profiles and
recent obs support p-type of light snow in parts of the west and
north and possible slight warm nose near Roanoke and farther
southwest allowing for light freezing rain. Not expecting impacts
with any freezing rain as looking to be perhaps just a glaze on
elevated surfaces. Snow amounts should be confined to mainly under a
half inch though some isolated higher ridges could get closer to an
inch and western Greenbrier could be in the 1-3 inch range. Will
keep the current Winter Weather Advisory in effect for western
Greenbrier accordingly. The moisture looks to diffuse eastward and
any precip should diminish by around mid-morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Chance for snow Sunday in the Piedmont.

A stronger upper shortwave tracking along the southeast CONUS looks
to generate cyclogenesis along the southeast coast with some
subfreezing air aloft advecting in on the western side of the
associated precip shield. This should allow for a mix of light rain
and snow mainly confined to the Piedmont for Sunday. The good news
is that sfc temps look to be mostly above freezing so any light snow
should have a hard time accumulating. What may stick to some
elevated surfaces doesn`t look to be more than a few tenths of
an inch anyway so not expecting any advisory being issued but
could warrant a future Special Weather Statement in forecast
updates this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Very cold temperatures and wind chills on Monday/Tuesday.

An additional cold front will cross the Mid-Atlantic on Monday,
bringing a dome of arctic air into the region. 850 mb temperatures
will range from -10C to -20C, a very cold profile for even the dead
middle of winter. NAEFS indicates that this is almost 3 standardized
anomalies below normal. At the surface, low temperatures on Tuesday
morning will be in the teens east of the Blue Ridge, and single
digits west. Compounding this anomalous blast of cold air, a strong
pressure gradient caused by a 1035mb high behind the front, will
result in simultaneous gusty winds. Likely not worthy of a wind
headline, but gusts of 25-35 mph are possible throughout the
forecast area. This environment has the potential to drop below 0F
wind chills as far east as the New River Valley. Extreme cold
headlines will likely be required for Tuesday morning in parts of
the NC High Country through the Greenbrier Valley in West Virginia.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Late week system will bring the next chance of precipitation, but
impacts are still unclear.

After a dry week, the next system that could unsettle the atmosphere
and bring precipitation will move through the area sometime on
Thursday or Friday of this week. A decent amount of uncertainty
surrounds this system, as the timing of its arrival varies almost 24
hours between major global deterministic models. As temperatures
will have returned closer to normal after the Monday cold snap,
daytime temperatures in the 40s and overnight temperatures below
freezing. The timing of the frontal passage and its associated
precipitation will directly impact whether we receive a winter
system or just a cold rain. Nailing down the timing of this late
week system will be task number one in the next few forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some MVFR cigs and light snow with some possible reduced vsbys looks
to build into the mountain sites this morning while eastern
sites should have a bit higher cigs near 4 kft and possible
light rain. Conditions should improve near 15z with VFR
conditions by afternoon. Winds should become more south to SW
this morning increasing to near 10 kts or less SW to west later
today then decrease to under 5 kts this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

More snow is possible for the area Sunday, mainly for the VA and
NC Piedmont, as a low pressure system moves along the Atlantic
Coast, also bringing sub VFR conditions. Gusty westerly winds
and below freezing temperatures follow this system for the
beginning of the work week. Dry weather and VFR conditions are
expected Monday through Wednesday, before the next chance for
precipitation arrives later in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB/VFJ
AVIATION...AB/BMG