Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

056
FXUS61 KRNK 300556
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
156 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Warmer weather returns, and we will see increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning mid week through this coming
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Trending much milder through the start of next weekend along with
nearly daily chances of showers and storms for most locations
starting Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending much milder through the start of next
weekend along with nearly daily chances of showers and storms
for most locations starting Monday.

As we progress through the week, high pressure,
currently centered over the Gulf of America, will progress eastward.
By mid-week, the center of the high will be in the western Atlantic
off the GA/FL coast. As next weekend approaches, the center of the
high will extend farther east into western Atlantic, around to around
the latitude of the NC/VA. This pattern evolution will set the stage
for an increasing south to southwest flow across our region. This
will provide for increased moisture levels and higher temperature
values as the week progresses. A look at the latest NAEFS solutions
for 850mb temps places values within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of
the 30-year CFSR climatology over all, or most of, our region from
Tuesday through Saturday. Likewise, Precipitable Water values also
Tuesday through Saturday are expected for most of the region to be
at or little over 1.00 inch, or within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of
the 30-year CFSR climatology.

While the high/ridge is expected to be centered over the western
Atlantic, a series of lows/troughs are expected to progress through
central CONUS, and then head northeast into the Ohio Valley,
following the northwestern edge of the ridge axis. This pattern will
keep the focus for the the positions of frontal boundaries to our
west and north, along with the best chances of showers, storms, and
heavy rain. However, given our region will be within an area of
above normal temperatures, above normal moisture levels, and be in
the proximity of passing lows/troughs, we are looking for showers
and storms also for our region. The best coverage each day will be
across northwestern sections of our region, especially from Wednesday
and onward.

While timing is still a question mark, we may see a pattern change
Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front may cross our region, with
drier and cooler air behind it for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Should expect VFR conditions for the valid 24 hour TAF period.
Winds light this morning, will gradually increase by midday.
Some occasional gusts in the 15kt to 20kt range possible.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Clouds will remain in the mountains with skies clearing east of
the mountains Monday night. On Tuesday, there will be a chance
for sub- VFR conditions in -SHRA and perhaps -TSRA mainly west
of and the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours. From mid week
through next weekend, chances of showers and sub-VFR conditions
will increase, as a low pressure system nears from the west.
Winds will be out of the southwest and may gust up to 20 knots
each afternoon through the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/SH
AVIATION...BMG