Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS61 KRNK 252332
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
732 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY 1: Chance for mountain showers Thursday and widespread light
rain likely Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY 1: Chance for mountain showers Thursday and widespread
light rain likely Friday.

The atmospheric stage is set for a transition as a minor
disturbance ripples through the region on Thursday. While this
initial shortwave ushers in a brief window of warmth sending
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and even hitting the
high 70s in some spots, it remains moisture-starved for most.
The western mountainous counties will see most of the rain,
though rain totals will be variable. Throughout the day, a
stubbornly stable atmosphere acts as a lid, keeping any threat
of severe weather at bay while a steady zonal flow prepares the
path for a more significant cold front.

By Friday morning, the narrative shifts as recent model
guidance suggests a quicker arrival for the main system, with
rain potentially beginning by around sunrise. This front,
marching in from the north-northwest, will be selective with its
moisture. The rugged terrain of southeast West Virginia,
particularly Western Greenbrier, stands to receive the most
substantial rainfall of up to a half-inch. Elsewhere, the
prospects for soaking rain begin to diminish as downslope
westerly winds erode the line of showers. This creates a stark
thermal divide across the region, with the mountains huddling in
the 60s while the Piedmont basks in the upper 70s to low 80s.

East of the Blue Ridge, the timing of the front may coincide
with maximum daytime heating, providing just enough energy for a
few thunderstorms to develop. However, because instability
remains weak, the probability of severe storms will be low. As
the front clears the area by Friday night, a seasonable air mass
takes over. High pressure settles in for the weekend and early
next week, pulling the mercury back towards normal, with high
temperatures in the 40s and 50s, while providing a stretch of
much calmer weather. After the weekend, temperatures moderate
above normal with reading in the 70s west of the Blue Ridge to
the 80s east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected across the entire
region overnight. However, look for some MVFR ceilings to reach
portions of southeast West Virginia on Thursday, along with some
accompanying isolated to scattered rain showers. They are not
expected to be heavy enough to restrict visibilities to sub-VFR
levels. The remainder of the area, while seeing lowering
ceilings, is still expected to remain VFR through the day.

After a night of calm or light and variable winds, look for a
southwest wind of 5 to 10 kts to develop across the region by
the late morning. Some stronger gusts to near 20 kts will be
possible across the mountains by the early afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will cross the area on Friday, providing an
opportunity for lowered ceilings and visibilities for all sites
as the frontal boundary interacts with the regional terrain. VFR
conditions are forecasted to return for this weekend, along
with cool and dry conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...DS/NF/RCS