Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXUS61 KRNK 030509
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1209 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.



&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild through the week with a chance of showers
Wednesday night into Thursday.

2) Weekend Reset: Cooler, seasonable air returns this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through the week with a
chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday.

An expansive area of offshore high pressure will dominate the
weather through mid-week, delivering an unseasonably warm and
spring-like stretch of early November weather. Clockwise winds
around the high will support warm air advection, temperatures
climbing 5-10 degrees above the seasonal norm...highs in the 70s
with some Piedmont locations approaching 80 by Wednesday.
Dewpoints will also be on the rise with readings in the 50s to
lower 60s and supporting mild overnight temperatures as well. In
general, conditions will feel notably pleasant if you like
warmth instead of cool and crisp.

As for rain chances, Low pressure will move through the Upper
Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region by Thursday, with the
accompanying surface front bringing a chance of rain showers to
the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have continued to
back off on precipitation coverage, QPF trending lower. From
what we are seeing, the best chance for showers will be along
and west of the Blue Ridge (amounts 0.25 to 0.50), moisture
along the front thinning as it crosses the mountains and
leaving areas east of the Blue Ridge with less than a quarter of
an inch of wetting.

May see some lingering upslope showers along the western slopes
through Saturday given persistent NW flow. Otherwise, quiet
weather once again returns through the remainder of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Weekend Reset: Cooler, seasonable air returns
this weekend.

Thursday`s frontal passage will begin transition to lower
temperatures for the weekend, readings closer to normal for
Saturday and Sunday.

Models are advertising a clipper-like system to barrel through
the region late Sunday or Monday...this feature originating
from the northern stream and cooler northern latitudes.
Depending on its track it may draw down temperatures even
further for Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a few days of cooler
than normal weather, a taste of what November should be like...
cool and crisp.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No big changes to the aviation forecast with some high clouds at
times so VFR. Have a little fog just east of KDAN toward 12z,
but overall not expecting any fog at taf sites.

Winds will be under 10kts mainly from the southeast to south.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Quiet weather and VFR flight conditions are expected to continue
through Wednesday afternoon. A frontal boundary moves into the
area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall
and likely sub-VFR flight conditions. Rain chances linger behind
the front on Friday, keeping a chance of sub-VFR conditions
around before clearing back out for the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...SH/WP