Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS61 KRNK 282331
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Timing of showers/few storms still looks like late tonight into
the mountains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday
morning and afternoon. Another chance of rain arrives by
Saturday.

2) Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the week with near
freezing temperatures possible in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday
morning and afternoon. Another chance of rain arrives by
Saturday.

Ahead of an upper level trough approaching the region, a surface
low pressure system, which is currently across the mid-
Mississippi valley is expected to push through the Ohio valley
tonight and Wednesday. This surface low accompanied by a 250mb
jet streak across the Northeast will provide enough forcing for
ascent that the region may finally see some more appreciable
rainfall on the order of 0.5-1.0 inches of widespread rainfall
on Wednesday. While this rainfall will certainly be beneficial,
it will not by any means bring an end to the ongoing drought
that the region has been experiencing since last fall.

As warm moist air overruns the area tonight and into Wednesday
morning along a warm front, shower and thunderstorms look to
leave begin some cloud debris. This cloud debris may lead to
some issues in afternoon instability developing; however, if
enough cloud breaks occur, instability may increase enough that
some strong to severe storms look to develop along the trailing
cold front with the aforementioned surface low. These storms may
produce strong gusty winds and a possible isolated tornado can`t
be ruled out given the increased low level shear in place over
the region. The development of any isolated tornado hinges on
enough instability developing during the afternoon hours. The
forecast area remains highlighted in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5), with the main threat being damaging winds.

Another opportunity for rainfall across portions of the area
comes Saturday as another southern stream low pressure system
marches east into the Carolinas. This system looks to be blocked
from pushing north due to the aforementioned upper level trough
that is expected to settle over the northeastern portion of the
Conus; however, some light rain showers and cool/cloudy
conditions can be expected on Saturday. The best chances for
accumulating rainfall look to remain for areas along the VA/NC
border. Current rainfall totals for this system look meager at
this time, with up to a third of an inch across the
aforementioned areas above.


KEY MESSAGE 2:

Much colder and unseasonal temperatures arrive for the end of
the week, as upper level troughing remains over the eastern
conus, and a surface high pressure system settles overhead of
the region. This will lead to clear skies and calm winds
areawide allowing temperatures to plummet into the low 30s
Sunday morning. Prior to Sunday morning several nights in the
upper 30s to low 40s are expected areawide, with patchy frost
possible across mountain locations. Even after Sunday morning,
temperatures are again expected to drop into the low to mid 30s
across mountain locations, and upper 30s across the Piedmont.
This will lead to the potential for frost once again across
mountain locations. Temperatures start to warm up by Tuesday as
the upper level trough finally lifts north of the region.

Since the growing season has begun and we will have recently
received the first decent rainfall in April, this cold air is
something to monitor for those with agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flight conditions will deteriorate overnight as front
approaches. Anticipate VFR this evening to become IFR or lower
over most of the area after midnight/04z, with showers/few
storms moving in between 09z-14z from BLF-LWB first to DAN/LYH
last. Not as confident on the forecast beyond 16z, as models are
lingering low cigs into the afternoon, but with a frontal
passage which is going to happen may scatter out the lower cigs
into the afternoon with scattered showers/storms possible.

For now will linger the lower cigs through the period.

Winds turn form the southeast to the southwest and west
tomorrow.

Could see some fog dropping vsbys to IFR or lower as well before
the showers move in.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds should turn towards the northwest by Wednesday night into
Thursday. Some upslope showers and MVFR ceilings may linger for BLF
and LWB into Thursday morning, but all locations should return to
VFR by Thursday afternoon as high pressure returns. The next chance
of showers could come by late Friday into Saturday, but the
potential for thunderstorms looks low at this time. All sites
should be VFR Sat night-Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/WP