Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS61 KRNK 081054
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
554 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Weak clipper could bring a light dusting of snow to portions
of the mountains today.

2) A chance of rain for the middle of next week and warming trend
ends.

3) Mixed signals of potential system by Valentine`s Day.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Weak clipper could bring a light dusting of snow to portions
of the mountains today.

A weak upper level clipper system is expected to dive south
through southern West Virginia, and SW Virginia, will bring
light snow showers to these areas through the afternoon and
evening today. Impacts from these snow showers is unlikely, as
accumulation is not expected from this system. Areas across SE
West Virginia may see up to a dusting from this system as it
runs into the mountains.


Key Message 2: A chance of rain for the middle of next week and warming trend
ends.


A cold front connected by low pressure systems will move through the
middle of next week and provide a chance of precipitation. This
precipitation will likely be upslope based and rain given the
warming trend beforehand. Precipitation amounts look to be trivial
but confidence will increase as we get closer to this event. The
cold front, however, will humble us and partially reverse the
warming trend. High temperatures for the latter half of next week
may be in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. The air will
be drier but not as extreme as previous weeks with dew points in the
20s and 30s.


Key Message 3: Mixed signals of potential system by Valentine`s
Day.

While confidence is still low, a signal remains for a potential
winter system to affect the region next weekend. Model guidance has
shown (though not for all model runs) a surface low moving eastward
and providing precipitation. This statement is left broad as models
struggle to know where this system goes. If one were to analyze each
deterministic model, he or she would find a variety of west to east
trajectories. Each path means the difference of rain, sleet, or snow
as far south as the Gulf States all the way to the Mid-Atlantic.
This system will be of interest to us considering that after the mid-
week cold front passes through, higher pressure is likely to wedge
in and install cold air damming. This set up along with a Miller B
storm system could result in some freezing rain, but again, it is
way too early to know what could happen for certain. At this moment,
it is something to monitor with a diverse list of precipitation
types on the table.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected through the period for all terminals
with the exception of BLF, where the potential for MVFR
restrictions look possible this morning and afternoon as a
clipper arrives from the northwest. Most sites along and west
of the Blue Ridge will see flurries/snow showers, with better
chance of lower vsby if these flurries/snow showers move over
the vicinity of a terminal today. Snow should come to an end
before sunset today. Any restrictions that do develop today
will likely lift by 00 UTC as cloud cover dissipates with the
exit of the aforementioned clipper system.

Northwest winds will generally remain light at around 5 knots or
less through the period as high pressure settles into the
region. By Monday morning, and the end of the TAF period, winds
look to become variable as high pressure moves over the region.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Next storm system will be warmer with rain potential and sub-
VFR Wednesday, followed by potential rain/snow into Thursday and
sub-VFR but low confidence on this.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ007-
     009>019-022>024-032>035.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ020.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ001-
     002-018.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ042>044.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ507-
     508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...EB