Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS61 KRNK 312245
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
645 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Complicated forecast for next week may lead to decreasing
 rainfall chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Complicated forecast for next week may lead to decreasing
rainfall chances.

Overall, a quiet period is forecast through the remainder of the
weekend and into early next week as high pressure sets up and
remains in influence over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
through at least Wednesday. While a disheveled shortwave is
expected to move through the region late Sunday into Monday,
much of the region will continue to remain dry thanks to the
aforementioned surface high pressure system advecting dry air
into the region ahead of this upper level shortwave trough.
Nevertheless, some light showers can`t be ruled out in extreme
SW Virginia and portions of SE West Virginia in upslope
locations late Sunday into Monday morning. The area looks to
completely dry out once again on Tuesday and most of Wednesday
across the region as high pressure slides east off the Mid-
Atlantic states coastline.

By late Wednesday, the aforementioned disheveled shortwave
trough looks to potentially develop a subtropical low off the
coast of Florida in a very moist environment. The placement and
timing of this low is quite variable at this time. At the same
time, much more amplified upper level troughs are expected to
slide east into the central Conus. Forecast models had been
consistent in deepening an upper level trough and digging it
south into the northern Gulf states mid to late week; however,
guidance no longer digs this trough as far south, which looks to
really limit the amount of moisture that was expected to be
pulled north into the region. Along with this change in upper
level dynamics, the aforementioned low off the Florida
coastline looks to possibly prevent moisture from being pulled
north as well ahead of a cold front associated with the upper
low across the central Conus. This is due to the Florida low
likely wrapping dry air from the northwest over our region
southward into the western Atlantic. This is evident on forecast
total PW values from both the ECMWF and GFS during this
timeframe.

Regardless, it does look like the region will see some
precipitation and unsettled weather; however, the amount of
precipitation in question might just be much less than was
initially forecast earlier in the week. Overall, there is still
time for this forecast to change as it is still in the 5-7 day
timeframe, and with this many chess pieces on the board, there
is certainly going to be more changes ahead of Thursday through
Saturday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No flight restrictions expected for this taf valid period
through 00z/02. Expect broken to overcast high clouds for the
entire period with east to southeast winds 8kts or less.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will likely continue into early next week with quiet
weather and continual cloudy skies. A frontal system looks to
approach around the middle of next week and offer some gusty winds
and a chance of rain. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the
timing of this system but it`s possible a warm front will increase
southeasterly winds along the Appalachian Mountains. A cold
front may follow through by the end of the work week and may
shift the wind direction (though weaker) from the northwest. The
passage of these fronts may give us a few days of shower
activity and sub-VFR conditions.

&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...BMG/EB/WP