Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS61 KRNK 021822
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Models continue to show more spotty coverage for showers and
thunderstorms through this weekend, which could lead to some
locations missing out on higher rainfall totals.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing chances for rain later this afternoon/evening for
WV and for areas south overnight tonight through Monday
morning. After that, no rain looks to be in the forecast for at
least a week.

2) A cold air wedge builds in for the weekend. After that, crisp
fall weather with cool temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for rain later this afternoon/
evening for WV and for areas south overnight tonight through
Monday morning. After that, no rain looks to be in the forecast
for at least a week.

Satellite and analysis date shows sunny skies under flat zonal
flow for the southern half of the forecast area, with
troughing gradually building in across the northern half. This
gently curving trough/near zonal flow is causing a front to our
NW to move very slowly today. A much stronger short wave over
southern Canada was helping to kick the front and associated
rain farther south with time. However, it will a while to
overcome the deep dry air in place above 4kft (see this
morning`s KRNK sounding).

Between the dry air and the slow front (not mutually exclusive),
have brought rain just into areas north of I-81 this evening,
but hold off on much more southward movement until closer to
tomorrow morning as another short wave ejects out of western
Canada and the intermountain west. This wave will dig south
farther and will support rain over a larger area. The front will
stall near the NC/SC border tomorrow afternoon. By this point a
cold air damming pattern will have developed, and overrunning
warm air over the cooler air at the surface will keep showers in
the forecast, and perhaps a storm or two along our western and
far southern counties.

Rain chances peak Sunday with the passage of a vorticity ribbon
on the front side of the mid level trough along with the
passage of the mid level axis and a secondary cold front. This
boundary will usher in cooler and much drier air, bringing an
end to our rain chances.

Rainfall amounts look to be a half to just over an inch for the
entire event, but some CAMs show more spotty/lighter amounts
with some areas possibly missing out or only receiving drizzle
or a light shower. Some of the rain could be moderate at times,
especially with slow-moving surface boundaries that will
encourage training due to the mid level flow. However, after
talking with WPC we have removed most of the Marginal Risk for
flooding, given we are in a drought, and will need much more
rain to cause flooding than we are expecting.

After that, no rain looks to be in the forecast for at least a
week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold air wedge builds in for the weekend. After
that, crisp fall weather with cool temperatures.

A wedge pattern begins to develop Saturday and becomes more
pronounced through Sunday, eventually being eroded by the large
push of high pressure and cool, dry air behind the secondary
front Monday. Temperatures will drop into the 60s and 70s
areawide Saturday through the next work week. A slight warming
trend brings Wednesday so we should see fewer 60s and more 70s
for the end of the work week. Sunny skies will go some way to
making it more of a pleasant fall weather stretch. here may be a
night or two where lows slip into the 30s in the mountain
valleys with patchy frost possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Borderline MVFR/VFR conditions are now building into SE WV and we
should see these drop to IFR between 5-12Z, coincident with the
arrival of rain and a frontal passage. BLF/LWB should see these
changes closer to 5Z, with terminals farther south like DAN and LWB
closer to 03/12Z. A further drop towards less than 400-700 feet or
so is likely during the day tomorrow as a cold air wedge develops
and rain becomes more widespread.

The front will cause a wind shift from the southwest to the
northeast after midnight. Wind gusts up to 20 kts are possible with
the frontal passage beginning early Saturday. In these situations
where the front comes in from the northeast, LYH tends to blow the
strongest and longest in duration due to a low level barrier jet
that forms lee of the mountains when a cool wedge enters from the
northeast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Low stratus, fog, drizzle, and light to moderate rain at times will
bring MVFR or lower conditions through Monday morning. VFR in high
pressure follows thereafter through Wednesday with the exception of
late night and early morning river valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH