Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS61 KRNK 070008
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
708 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added isolated to scattered showers over parts of SE WV this evening.

Little change to the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers in the east exit by early in the evening; followed by a
few showers and increased winds this evening in the west.

2) Dry and trending milder through the middle of next week.

3) Cooler temperatures and a return of precipitation to conclude the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers in the east exit by early in the evening;
followed by a few showers and increased winds this evening in the
west.

A surface cold front remains positioned to the east of the area. An
area of low pressure riding northeast along this front has helped to
stall it, and allow for showers over eastern parts of the area this
afternoon. As the the low continues on its journey northeast along
the front, the showers will come to an end from west to east. Where
cloud cover in the east is still abundant, it too will be decreasing
in coverage from west to east.

Behind the cold front, this system`s parent upper trough is still
progression through the Lower Ohio Valley. This feature is expected
to reach, and then cross the area overnight. With it will come
increased gusty winds, and colder temperatures. Dew points have
already starting falling across much of the area, and that will only
accelerate overnight. The increase in northwest winds will yield
upslope cloud cover from the mountains of North Carolina north into
southeast West Virginia. Additionally over southeast West Virginia,
some isolated to scattered showers are expected through the late
evening before ending.

Winds through the overnight hours are expected to gust to the 20 to
30 mph range over the mountains, with some higher gusts nearing 35
mph. Over the Piedmont, gusts of 10 to 20 mph will be common.
Similar winds speed will continue through mid-day Saturday, before
starting to subside during the late afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry and trending milder through the middle of next
week.

Our weather pattern is expected to remain one dominated by generally
northwest flow aloft through the the middle portion of next week.
While a series of low pressure systems are expected to cross the
Great Lakes region into New England, the moisture and energy
associated with them is expected to remain to the north. Our coolest
temperatures are expected on Sunday with values near normal for this
time of year. As we progress into mid-week, geopotential heights are
expected to gradually rises, and so too the surface temperatures. By
Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures are expected to be five to ten
degrees above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler temperatures and a return of precipitation to
conclude the week.

While specific timing of features still is in question, the general
trend among most model guidance is for a longwave trough to dig into
the Mississippi Valley on Thursday and progress east towards or into
our region by Friday. The result will be a trend towards lower
temperatures and better chance of precipitation for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A cold front is currently pushing through the region this
evening from the northwest to southeast. As this occurs, low
CIGs will overtake mountain terminals, with BLF and LWB likely
seeing MVFR to IFR restrictions starting shortly after 00 UTC
this evening, and continuing through the 18-20Z timeframe on
Saturday. Terminals east of the VA/WV state line should remain
VFR through this period; however, brief periods of MVFR CIGs may
occur at BCB during the overnight and early morning hours
Saturday. Terminals east of the Blue Ridge will likely remain
clear or have scattered cloud decks through the TAF period.

Winds will be on the increasing trend over the next several
hours, with gusty northwest winds persisting across mountain
terminals in the 20-25 knot range. These gusts look to continue
through Saturday evening at nearly all terminals. Sustained
winds in the 10-15 knot range are expected at all terminals
through the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds gradually diminish Sunday as High Pressure builds across
the region. Widespread VFR is expected Sunday through
Wednesday. Exceptions will be some late night and early morning
river valley fog at LWB and possibly BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...EB/PM