Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS61 KRNK 060025
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing has changed for the evening update.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for western Greenbrier
County WV Friday morning through Saturday morning for heavy
snow.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Friday afternoon into
early Saturday for the Alleghany Highlands, into the rest of
southeast WV, far southwest VA and the NC High Country for snow.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for areas along and west of
the Blue Ridge from Friday night into Saturday afternoon for
wind gusts up to 60 mph.

An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for western Greenbrier
Friday night into Saturday for wind chills 15 to 25 below zero.

More headlines for cold and wind will likely be needed as we get
closer to the event.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating snow Friday into Saturday morning.

2) Strong northwest winds Friday night into Saturday areawide.

3) Very cold wind chills Friday night into Saturday.

4) Warmer temperatures aiding in reducing residual snowpack.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Accumulating snow Friday into Saturday.

Strong front arrives Friday with a reinforcing shot of colder
air. Upper energy pushes across in the afternoon into Friday
night, with strong cold advection and good upper forcing. There
are indications for a few heavier snow showers/squalls that will
push into our WV/far SW VA and possibly NC mountains late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Models/ensembles have
brought an uptick in QPF over the mountains with increasing snow
to liquid ratios which should result in higher snow
accumulations.

At the moment overall confidence is high that 5" + will fall in
western Greenbrier County, which is warning criteria. Generally
looking at 4 to 10 inches. Further south and east 1 to locally
6 inches possible. Snowfall could be higher where squalls occur
and may need to expand the winter storm warning south into
Tazewell County, but will look at model trends into this evening
before deciding. The snow actually may begin as rain east of the
mountains but 8h temps drop sharply so thinking rain changing
to snow by later in the afternoon/evening before ending east of
the mountains as the main vort/shortwave pushes east. Could see
a dusting to an inch east of the Blue Ridge. Snow showers and
flurries will likely linger into Saturday across our WV
mountains and possibly east to the I-81 corridor given the
arctic air.

Key Message 2: High winds.

Northwest winds at 8h are likely in the 45 to 60 kts range
Friday night into Saturday where 6 hr pressure rises of 6 to 12
mb occurs. Forecast soundings indicate mixing up to 50kts along
the Blue Ridge potential and this event looks favorable for
widespread high winds along and west of the Blue Ridge. Could
see wind advisory for the rest of the area, but will look at the
latest trends before issuing one later this evening into Friday
morning.

On the positive side, most of the snow that falls will be a dry
snow, so not looking at a lot of loading on tree branches when
the winds arrive. On the negative side, with the weaker trees
in the area from previous storms, some will likely fall, leading
to potential power outages and road closures.

Strong winds look to be in the early morning hours of Saturday
through midday Saturday, before gradually weakening into
Saturday evening.

Key Message 3: Very cold chills.

As usual, with the arctic blast and wind plus snow cover, temps
will drop again into the teens Friday night, some some single
digits above zero. An extreme cold warning has been issued for
western Greenbrier, and will likely need cold weather advisories
for the rest of the mountains as wind chills are forecast to
drop to around 5 to 10 below Saturday morning.


Key Message 4: Warmer temperatures next week.

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Sunday and remain
in place through Tuesday, offering a much-needed period of stability
following the recent high-impact winter events. While abundant
sunshine will work to warm the area, the presence of a thick,
residual snow and ice pack may prevent temperatures from climbing as
high as some model guidance suggests. Nevertheless, every hour spent
above the freezing mark will be a blessing, aiding in the slow but
steady reduction of the frozen ground cover.

Atmospheric heights will increase aloft throughout the early week,
helping to moderate the airmass and sending temperatures into the
40s on Monday and the 50s from Tuesday through Thursday. A warm
front is forecast to track north of the area on Wednesday before
stalling across northern Virginia into Thursday. This boundary may
serve as a track for a wave of low pressure between Wednesday night
and Friday. Regardless of the system`s exact timing, temperatures
are expected to remain sufficiently warm for all precipitation to
fall as rain. Even if this rainfall remains light and intermittent,
the combination of warmer air and liquid precipitation will
significantly accelerate the melting of the remaining snowpack.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR layer of low clouds are still hugging the western slopes
vcnty of KBLF otherwise VFR all terminals overnight. Mid/upper
clouds will be on the increase overnight, but no precipitation
is expected until mid-day Friday. Anything before 16Z/Noon
Friday will likely be in the form of virga, or precipitation
that either evaporates or sublimates before reaching the
ground. By Friday afternoon, cigs will lower with snow
overspreading the forecast area ahead of an Arctic Front. The
front is expected to cross the forecast area Friday evening.
Until the passage of the front, winds are expected to remain
under 10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An arctic front is forecast to cross the area late Friday
afternoon with scattered to numerous snow showers and sub vfr
cigs. Northwest winds are going to be gusty with speeds
increasing with the passage of the front and continuing through
the day Saturday. Models suggests wind gusts could reach 40 to
50kts VCNTY of BCB and ROA, and 30-45kts elsewhere late Friday
night into Saturday morning. We should see a return to VFR east
of the mountains Saturday and in WV by Saturday evening. VFR to
remain in place for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for VAZ007-009>011-015-018>020.
     High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
     for VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ001-018.
     High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
     for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for WVZ042>044-507.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for WVZ508.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...PM