Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

730
FXUS61 KRNK 121812
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
112 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
18z aviation update.

No big changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mountain rains showers persist through tonight slowly
changing to snow showers in the higher elevations.

2) Upslope snow event through Saturday for the western
mountains, much colder air through the weekend before a warmup
by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers will be mainly confined to the mountains
into tonight changing to snow showers late.

Front is surging east and cold advection taking place in the
mountains. Still should be til later this evening into the
overnight for any rain to change to snow showers in the
mountains. Brisk northwest winds will gust at times to 20-30
mph into tonight and Friday, highest in the mountains, with a
few gusts over 35 mph. Look for clearing skies this evening in
the Piedmont while the mountains linger in the clouds through
Saturday.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Upslope snow event through Saturday for the western
mountains, much colder air through the weekend before a warmup
by late next week.

As subsequent shortwave troughs swing through the area into
Friday, upslope snow will continue across the western mountains
of NC/VA/WV. Due to the ground being warm, initial snow will
mostly melt, but as the cold air settles in, light accumulations
will occur. Flurries will be possible anywhere along/west of
I-81 on Friday, and generally up to 0.5" is possible for the
western mountains outside of the higher elevations, where 1-3"
is possible, especially on elevated or grassy surfaces. It is
possible a few areas such as Western Greenbrier County or Mt.
Rogers could exceed 3", but confidence in that occurring is low.
Snow showers continue for the western mountains through midday
Saturday before tapering off as the upper-trough begins to lift
off to the northeast.

The cold air will be the bigger story for most, as it continues
to pour into the area from Canada, as a large upper trough sits
overhead. This will keep highs around 5-10 degrees below normal
for the Piedmont due to clear skies, while heavier cloud cover
from the northwest flow will keep highs 15-20 degrees below
normal for locations west of the Blue Ridge. Highs each day
through the weekend will be in the low 50s for the Piedmont,
and in the 30s to low 40s for the mountains. Overnight lows
fall into the 20s area-wide Saturday and Sunday nights.

Winds will also remain elevated through the weekend, gusting to
20-25 mph Friday and Saturday, lowering to around 20 mph Sunday
and becoming light by Monday as high pressure builds back into
the area. Due to these winds along with the cold temperatures,
wind chills will be in the teens/20s Saturday and Sunday
mornings. While this is not a dangerous level of cold, it will
be quite the shock to the system after the mild last week or so.
By early next week, a gradual warming trend occurs, with highs
in the 50s by Tuesday and in the 60s by Thursday with no rain
expected all week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR from ROA east, to MVFR to IFR cigs from BCB to BLF/LWB
through much of the period. Some rain showers this afternoon may
bring vsbys to 3-5sm at BLF/LWB. Any snow showers/flurries
arrive later tonight.

West to northwest winds will be gusty through the period,
highest in the mountains to ROA where 25-30kts likely. Winds
across the Piedmont should relax some as we head into tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The upslope  event continues through Saturday, keeping sub- VFR
cigs possible at BLF/LWB. BCB will also be affected at times
with MVFR cigs, and occasional flurries possible there and at
ROA. VFR east.

Northwest winds will remain elevated through Saturday, with
gusts of 20+ knots possible at all terminals. Winds slightly
reduce Sunday, with gusts around 15 knots expected before
becoming light early next week.

Clouds persist through Sunday at BLF/LWB, though cigs should
improve late Saturday. Next week should be VFR with high
pressure in place.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB/WP
AVIATION...JCB/WP