Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS61 KRNK 261819
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. Still looking hot mid to late
next week.

Aviation Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon/evening.
Better coverage Saturday. Sunday still iffy on coverage.

2) Hot and humid conditions will take place by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon/evening.
Better coverage Saturday. Sunday still iffy on coverage.

Noticing two vorts on mesoanalysis this afternoon, one over
upstate SC and another in southern KY. Had some clouds/showers
push up toward the NC Piedmont, but falling apart. Another area
of showers/storms are moving across southeast WV, with smaller
area along the southern Blue Ridge from east of Blowing Rock to
Meadows of Dan.

Overall, coverage this afternoon into the evening will be widely
scattered in terms of our entire forecast area, but expect best
concentration along the southern Blue Ridge and possibly
along/north of I-64 east toward Buckingham, VA.

Instability is there with 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE, but not much
shear. So, cannot rule out isolated stronger storms, along with
locally heavy downpours from training cells along the Blue
Ridge.

Should see weakening of storms to showers tonight but upper
disturbances ahead of the front appear to keep showers/clouds
around into the overnight, and with potential for cloud cover
riding into the day Saturday, this could offset instability
along the front. Confidence in severe weather is trending lower
for Saturday. Machine-leanring models and CAMs, look like the
better severe storm potential will be east of us out toward the
coast, east of I-85, I-95. Still cannot rule out an isolated
strong storm if any decent heating occurs.

The front stalls south of us Sunday or just along our southern
CWA. Shortwave (possibly convective MCS) looks to track from KY
into east TN Sunday morning, with some models showing it
tracking as far north as southern VA. Seems with the pattern,
better coverage of showers would be in far SW VA into NW NC
Sunday morning, then another wave tracks across northern VA in
the afternoon and could bring better coverage north of
Lynchburg/Roanoke. Confidence is moderate on Pops Sunday.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will take place by the
middle of next week.

An impressive 594+ dm upper level ridge should build
northeastward from the lower Mississippi River Valley towards
the Ohio River Valley next week, potentially being centered
overhead by Thursday. While chances of showers and
thunderstorms should lessen due to capping aloft from this
ridge, the bigger impact will be the increasing heat and
humidity. Temperatures should steadily rise during Monday and
Tuesday but jump notably by Wednesday with highs in the 90s for
the majority of locations and even near 100 degrees east of the
Blue Ridge. Thursday could be the day some areas east of the
Blue Ridge break 100 degrees, including urban areas like
Roanoke/Lexington. Differences in models by next weekend but
majority have the ridge retrograding heading into Sunday. Still
expect a hot holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not out of the question for a few shower/storms to come close to
LWB/BCB/ROA/LYH this afternoon, but not going to have it in the
tafs except VCTS/VCSH as coverage is very widely scattered.

VFR should carry the afternoon into the evening, then some MVFR
cigs/vsbys possible overnight into Saturday morning. Potential
for IFR fog as well especially if it rains at a terminal.

More showers/storms Saturday but most of that will be after
16z-18z, so again VCSH at most in the mountains.

Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest at
around 5-10 knots, then drop off tonight to calm/light then
picking up to around 5kts possibly 10kts by late in the taf
periods out of the southwest to west again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Saturday afternoon looks to have a potential for better coverage
of showers and thunderstorms across the region. This will
likely lead to degraded flight conditions for all terminals. As
another mid and upper level disturbance pushes through the
region on Sunday, the potential exists for additional showers
and thunderstorms to impact terminals but appears best coverage
may be southwest of a line from BLF-MWK. Next week sees
increasing high pressure aloft so expecting much warmer
temperatures and less storminess. So mainly VFR except for an
late night river fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP