Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

835
FXUS61 KRNK 052331
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms look to push through the area Saturday
afternoon along a cold front that will progress through the
region throughout the day and evening. Behind the passage of the
cold front, surface high pressure will overtake the region
leading to foggy mornings but mostly clear skies by the
afternoon and evening hours. Dry conditions look to linger
through the middle of next week before the next rain chances
enter the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...


Key Messages:

1) A few showers/storms possible this evening especially heading
toward SE WV.

2) Strong to severe storms are possible along and east of the
Blue Ridge Saturday afternoon.

Axis of instability with SBCAPES near 3000 J/kg exist across
eastern KY into WV but instability weakens further east in our
area, but then increases again across the Piedmont. A series of
storms are moving from eastern KY into WV early this evening and
may impact portions of southeast WV between 8-9pm. Expect a
weakening trend to this convection but cannot rule out some
gusty winds along the I-64 corridor in WV, where effective bulk
shear is forecasted to be in the 35-40kt range.

Will adjust pops as needed to account for radar trends. The few
showers over the Blue Ridge near Floyd and across Wilkes should
remain weak.

Previous discussion...

Upper level troughing is expected to continue across the the
eastern conus on Saturday. A shortwave vorticity maxima is
expected to round the base of this trough axis through the lower
Great Lakes region during the day on Saturday. As this happens,
a cold front that is currently draped across the Ohio river
valley and central Kentucky will get pushed east through the
region during the afternoon hours Saturday as this upper level
feature helps progress it eastward. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Blue Ridge, and
push east throughout the afternoon and evening hours.

These storms will be capable of producing strong to severe winds
across areas primarily along and east of the Blue Ridge. HREF
probabilities have a 90-100% chance of 0-6km deep layer shear in
the 30-40 knot range; however, instability values are only
expected to be in the 500-1000 J/Kg range, with only 30%
probabilities of values greater than 1000 J/Kg expected. This
would make instability the limiting factor in storm severity on
Saturday. Regardless, the environment looks favorable enough
that strong to severe winds from clusters of thunderstorms will
likely lead to downed trees and power poles, with some power
outages occurring as a result.

Current HREF probabilities also keep any probability of greater
than 3 inches near 0% for the area tomorrow, and probabilities
greater than 2 inches near 10-20% for areas along and east of
the Blue Ridge for Saturday.

Temperatures across the area Saturday look to climb into the
upper 80s to near 90 across the Piedmont, and low 70s to upper
70s west of the Blue Ridge. Lows tonight will generally fall
into the low to mid 60s areawide, with a few upper 50s possible
for higher locations in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers/storms linger Saturday night into early Sunday before
clearing out.

2) Quiet and much cooler weather for Sunday into early next week.

A strong cold front will be continuing to move through the area
Saturday night, with lingering showers/storms slowly ending through
the night from west to east as the front moves offshore into the
Atlantic by Sunday morning. An upper level trough will continue to
provide lift for convection, though no daytime heating will allow
the convection to slowly fizzle out. The far eastern Piedmont may
see a stray shower or two ending around midday, with drier weather
for the afternoon. The upper trough lifts back north, and a more
zonal pattern emerges aloft for the rest of the period. A strong
surface high across the Ohio Valley will then take over, with very
dry air suppressing all convection into early next week. The high
begins to wedge down into the area Monday night.

Rain totals will be light as most of the heavy rainfall will already
have moved through. Still, up to a tenth of an inch is possible
across most of the area, with the eastern Piedmont possibly seeing
spots of 0.25-0.50" on average in the heavier remaining convection.
No further precipitation is expected after around midday Sunday.

Temperatures reduce dramatically behind the front, with highs each
day in the mid 60s for the mountains and mid 70s for the Piedmont.
Overnight lows stay in the 50s to low 60s Sunday morning before
falling into the 40s early next week. The highest elevations will
likely fall into the upper 30s. Winds remain relatively light, but a
few gusts of around 10 mph on the mountain peaks could cause mid 30s
wind chills.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather expected through at least late week.

2) Temperatures remain below normal but do rise some through the
week.

Next week looks to be extremely quiet, with the same high pressure
continuing to wedge in east of the Appalachians through midweek. The
wedge finally erodes late Wednesday, with the high shifting into the
Atlantic and dissipating. Some models try to bring in Atlantic
moisture to the Piedmont, but confidence remains low that it will
move far enough inland to impact our area. Therefore, PoPs are kept
under 10%, with dry conditions likely to continue through at least
the end of the week. This will be due to yet another, even stronger
high pressure system over Canada moving down into the Northeastern
US, behind a dry cold front on Friday. Fall-like weather is here to
stick around through at least mid September.

With the high pressure wedge over the area, cooler weather will
continue for the Mid-Atlantic. However, due to a lack of moisture,
cloud cover will be minimal outside of the far eastern Piedmont,
which will keep temperatures slightly higher than if heavier cloud
cover were present. Highs each day are expected to be in the 70s,
with 60s in the mountains. These temperatures will slightly moderate
a few degrees by late week, with some spots in the eastern Piedmont
breaking 80 degrees again, which is still below normal for this time
of year. Lows also stay fairly consistent, though they too moderate
slightly, generally in the 40s/50s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions should occur during this evening, and overnight
prior to 09z. May have to watch for convection moving across
central WV and potential impacts in vicinity of LWB after 00z,
but for now keeping it out of tafs as expecting weakening of
storms. With equipment comms issues at LWB, will have AMD NOT
SKED again in the tafs once observations stop arriving.

Anticipate patchy fog and sub-VFR cigs late tonight mainly
LWB/BCB/BLF, but confidence is moderate on this happening as
more clouds ahead of the front with showers may limit it.
Probability of VFR is decent after 14z for all terminals. Will
watch for shower and thunderstorm activity along/ahead of the
front at all terminals from late morning through the taf period.
Have VCTS in there for now.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Drier air arrives Sunday into early next week as high pressure
returns to the region, resulting in mainly VFR conditions
outside any late night fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB/WP