Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS61 KRNK 272345
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated, and the chance of
thunderstorms on Tuesday was reduced due to the expectation of
widespread cloud cover and lack of instability.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday, and another chance of rain arrives by Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the
week with near freezing temperatures possible in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday, and another chance of rain arrives by Saturday.

A weakening cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday,
and several models have the shower and thunderstorm activity
breaking up before it reaches the Appalachian Mountains as a
drier airmass remains in place. The chance of thunderstorms was
reduced due to widespread cloud cover arriving in the morning
that will inhibit instability. It will take some time to
saturate the atmosphere, but the mountains should have the
highest probabilities of rainfall.

Moisture is expected to increase by Wednesday as a wave of low
pressure develops along a cold front and approaches the region
from the west/southwest and taps into moisture from the Gulf.
Better upper level dynamical support accompanies this system
with a shortwave crossing the area and a trough deepening over
the Ohio River Valley during this time. Strong shear is
associated with the front, and thus there is a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However, one limiting factor
on convective development would be how much the atmosphere can
destabilize by the afternoon hours given broken to overcast
skies and precipitation from the warm front lifting northward
during the morning hours. With sufficient instability as some
models depict over 1000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon, there is
a potential for damaging winds and large hail.

Current rainfall totals during Tuesday through Wednesday range
from about 0.50 inches in the Piedmont to around an inch in
western Virginia with up to 1.50 inches in the Mountain Empire
and Grayson Highlands. While this will certainly be beneficial
rainfall, it will not bring an end to the ongoing drought as the
entire region still remains about four inches below normal since
the beginning of March.

Another opportunity for rain comes on Saturday with another
wave of moisture reaching the area. However, there does not
appear to be any significant forcing with this system, and the
spread in forecast amounts ranges from zero to two thirds of an
inch. Therefore, confidence is low on how much rainfall this
weekend system will produce.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the
week with near freezing temperatures possible in the mountains.

Behind the frontal passage in the middle of the week, the 500 mb
trough deepens over the Ohio River Valley and the Great Lakes,
which will allow much cooler air to arrive. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance agree on below normal temperatures, possibly
near freezing for portions of the mountains in southeast West
Virginia. Bald Knob, Mount Rogers, and Burkes Garden provide the
best chance for freezing temperatures in Virginia. The chance of
low temperatures below 35 degrees during Friday and Saturday
morning are around 40 to 50 percent. Since the growing season
has begun and we will have recently received the first decent
rainfall in April, this cold air is something to keep an eye on
for those with agricultural interests.

Gusty winds will also follow the front. Though the winds will not
completely overlap with the coolest morning temperatures, it
will feel quite chilly Friday and Saturday morning. Temperatures
should increase into the 50s and 60s by those afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for tonight, but clouds will
steadily increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the
west. Winds could occasionally gust up to 20 knots from the
southeast at BLF, while lighter winds are anticipated elsewhere.
Ceilings should lower to MVFR and IFR by tomorrow morning as
light rain arrives. Visibilities may also be reduced a little,
especially along the Blue Ridge. Winds should swing around
towards the southwest by Tuesday afternoon after the frontal
passage, and there may be some slight improvement in ceilings
towards the evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR ceilings could linger through Tuesday night and into
Wednesday morning as another cold front approaches from the
west. This front should provide a more notable chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Winds should turn towards the northwest by
Wednesday night into Thursday and may become gusty. Some upslope
showers and MVFR ceilings may linger for BLF and LWB into
Thursday morning, but all locations should return to VFR by
Thursday afternoon as high pressure returns. The next chance of
showers could come by late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/PW
AVIATION...PW