Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS61 KRNK 241125
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
625 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Models have continued to adjust and have begun to come into
better agreement that the heaviest snow amounts will fall and
north of the US 460 corridor, particularly across the Alleghany
Highlands and the Greenbrier Valley. Snow amounts have slightly
decreased across the board given higher confidence in more
sleet and freezing rain. Biggest change in snow amounts were
across the NC/VA border region, with ice amounts increased and
snow amounts decreased.

Onset of the wintry precipitation looks to begin sometime
late this afternoon for areas west of I-77, and between 5-7pm
for areas east of I-77 and west of I-81. 8pm-10pm for locations
east of I-81.

It is important to note that subtle changes in the storm track
will have significant changes to overall snow amounts, but will
not change the overall impact of the storm severity. Whether we
get heavy snow, sleet or freezing rain, the impacts are going
to be severe. As much as 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent
precipitation is being forecast from this afternoon through
early Monday. This is a lot of areawide precipitation to fall as
snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Have your winter preparations
finished no later than noon today.

Temperatures for next week continue to trend colder, especially
Tuesday morning and Thursday mornings with near record lows
possible in spots. A potentially record breaking prolonged
period around or below freezing will continue through the
entirety of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected to begin
this afternoon and continue into late Sunday night and early
Monday morning. Significant amounts of wintry precipitation
expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The coldest air in several years moves into the area
early next week, with the cold lasting through the entirety of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected to begin
this afternoon and continue into late Sunday night and early
Monday morning.

An impactful winter storm will move into the region starting
early this afternoon, and continuing through Monday morning.

Initial precipitation type should be snow for locations north of
the VA/NC border. Along and south of the VA/NC border may have
a brief period of snow, followed by sleet, then followed by a
transition to freezing rain sometime late Sunday morning. Snow,
once it begins, will be heavy at times and will quickly
accumulate on all surfaces. This will result in rapidly
deteriorating conditions tonight. Travel after dark is
discouraged.

Hi-res models give high confidence for a 1 to 2 degree Celsius
700mb warm nose developing over the region from the south
late tonight night and pushing north during Sunday morning
across the region. Guidance now showing this initial 1 to 2
degree Celsius warm nose may grow to a 4 to 6 degree warm nose
by Sunday morning. Widespread sleet likely during this time.
The continued warming aloft will gradually begin to turn the
predominant precipitation type from sleet to freezing rain along
the VA/NC border by late Sunday morning and early Sunday
afternoon. This warm layer will continue to increase and will
result in sleet changing to freezing rain for most of the area
by Sunday evening.

Still think sleet will be the predominant precip type for a
while on Sunday, but some guidance now indicating an earlier
transition to freezing rain, especially across the VA/NC border
and south. With the higher confidence of more of freezing rain,
have upped ice amounts to 0.4" to 0.75" for most of North
Carolina and southern/SW Virginia, with localized higher amounts
along the crest of the Blue Ridge. This is a significant amount
of ice... downed trees and power lines, resulting in extended
power outages are now becoming more likely.

Some guidance warms temperatures Sunday afternoon into the
upper 20s to low 30s, but based off the position and strength of
the high, along with continued precipitation into the cold air
mass, diurnal warming of any kind will be small and currently do
not believe it will warm that significantly. With the tendency
for model bias to erode wedging too quickly/prematurely, have
opted to remain on the colder side of guidance for temperatures
on Sunday.

The only uncertainty that may arise, which is being hinted in
some CAM guidance, is that a dry slot may form as the southern
surface low starts to transition to the new surface low
developing along the baroclinic zone off the Mid-Atlantic states
coastline. This may perhaps provide a 4 to 6 hour window of
lighter than forecast totals across the area depending on where
the main axis of forcing along the warm front lifts across the
forecast area.

Given the potential aforementioned warm nose developing aloft, NBM
probabilities for snowfall have continued to lower across the
entire area. The highest probabilities still remain along and
north of the I64 corridor from Greenbrier County to Rockbridge
County, with probabilities quickly tapering off moving south
towards Roanoke and the New River Valleys.

Since sleet typically has a liquid equivalent ratio of roughly (2-
1/3-1), we could potentially see additional sleet totals on top of
any snow that falls early on in the event. The snow that does fall
into this extremely cold and dry airmass will be very fluffy and
light, while the sleet that falls on top, combined with freezing
rain, will lead to a heavy crust on top of the previously
fallen snow.

Once the event starts, it will not be safe to travel across area
roadways, as travel will become extremely dangerous to
impossible. Motorists that become stranded, may have to wait
hours in frigid cold temperatures for emergency services to come
to their aid. Again, regardless of snowfall totals, this event
will bring major impacts to travel across the region. Be
prepared for dangerous travel conditions from Saturday
afternoon, through Monday morning.



KEY MESSAGE 2: The coldest air in several years moves into the area
early next week, with the cold lasting through the entirety of
next week.

Once the threat of the winter storm passes by Monday morning, a
new threat will emerge. Extremely cold air will dive down into
the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast, due to a high pressure over the
central CONUS. The gradient between the high and the low in the
Northeast US will cause elevated winds between 10-20 mph, with
gusts of at least 20-30 mph across the entire area. For the
higher elevations, wind gusts will be even stronger, gusting up
to 40 mph Monday afternoon into Monday night. These strong wind
gusts will likely cause additional power outages, as any trees
and power lines coated in ice or snow will be strained further
in the gusty winds. Winds reduce some overnight, but remain
breezy all week in the mountains. This northwesterly flow will
cause upslope snow showers on Monday before tapering off Monday
night.

Monday night will be the coldest night of the week, as the snow and
ice on the ground will not have melted much during the day with
temperatures staying well below freezing. With the ground covered in
ice and snow, colder air will travel further and moderate less. Due
to this, overnight lows Monday night will fall to around zero with
most of the area just below zero. These lows will be the coldest in
at least 4 years for locations along the Blue Ridge, and coldest in
8 years for the Piedmont. A few locations could challenge record
lows for the day. The bitter cold temperatures along with the winds
gusting around 20 mph overnight will cause wind chills to be
dangerously cold. Wind chills of -5 to -15 are possible in the
Piedmont, with -15 to -25 west of the Blue Ridge and into the higher
elevations. These values would warrant an Extreme Cold Warning if
the forecast persists. This is especially concerning considering
there may be numerous power outages across the area from the weekend
winter storm, so being prepared and having a backup heat source will
be vital early next week. Without a heat source, these temperatures
and wind chills will be life-threatening.

Although Tuesday morning will be the coldest period next week,
temperatures continue to stay very cold. Highs will likely stay near
to below freezing for most, if not all of the area for the entirety
of next week. This will cause any snow/ice that fell over the
weekend to struggle to melt for many days, with any radiation
melting from the sun quickly refreezing after sunset. Any roads that
are not cleared/retreated will remain difficult or even impossible
to travel on for days. Overnight lows will continue to be in the
single digits to low teens each night. To put this cold stretch in
perspective, this could be the longest stretch of consecutive days
below freezing for many areas possibly ever on record, especially
along the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont. Wednesday will be the
best chance for the southern Piedmont to crack the freezing mark
briefly, before another cold front passes by late week, reinforcing
cold air and again causing lows to be near zero with wind chills
again around -10 to -15 degrees west of the Blue Ridge. Those
without power may remain without power as crews may have difficulty
reaching more rural locations. Having food, supplies, and enough
fuel for a heat source for nearly a week may be needed. Please
prepare now for an extended duration of extremely cold weather
following the winter storm this weekend, your life could depend on
it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through this afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions with
snow starting around 5PM for the west (including BLF/LWB
terminals). Snow will continue to increase and move east through
the evening with cigs and vsby quickly lowering. IFR/LIFR for
all terminals once heavier snow sets in. Will see a gradual
transition from snow to sleet around midnight with most
terminals seeing mainly sleet by daybreak on Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Poor flying conditions will remain in place pretty much up and
down the east coast and Ohio Valley through Sunday night. For
our area expect a wintry mix with IFR or lower cigs/vsbys into
Sunday night, then a gradual improvement by Monday as the system
heads east. However arctic air and strong northwest winds will
follow and sub-VFR cigs are still possible into Tuesday across
the mountains, with snow showers/flurries.

Winds should start to weaken going into Wednesday. Very cold
conditions will remain through mid-week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Monday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Monday for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Monday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG