Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

433
FXUS61 KRNK 221101
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
701 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Enhanced fire danger conditions today...south of Hwy 460 and
into the State of NC. Lowered dewpoints along and south of the
VA/NC border where deepest mixing will occur today.

Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Breezy today with fire weather concerns from southern VA
into the Carolinas this afternoon.

2. Dry with a warming trend Thursday and Friday.

3. Pattern change may bring series of fronts to the area
beginning this weekend and continuing next week with opportunity
for showers and closer to normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy today with fire weather concerns from
southern VA into the Carolinas this afternoon.

Weak trough to cross the northern Mid-Atlantic today providing
a period of cloudiness and a few showers across the
Virginias. System is moisture starved so only advertising low
chance pops mainly along and north of highway 460 during the
afternoon. Bigger concern will be uptick in wind speed with
models indicating 85H wind speeds around 35 kts at 5kft AGL.
This should translate in some 20 to 30 mph surface gusts today
leading to enhanced fire danger threat where wind, low Rh and
full solar insolation will couple to produce conditions
unfavorable for fire suppression for existing or new fire
starts. Areas south of Highway 460 in Virginia, and into the
state of NC will be more apt to experience these unfavorable
conditions. Farther north, clouds and shower activity (albeit
meager) should help to mitigate the threat.

Temperatures today should top out about 3-5 degrees warmer than
yesterday north of Hwy 460, and 5-8 degrees warmer south of
Hwy 460. Again, cloud cover resulting in the difference in the
overall temperature pattern today.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry with a warming trend Thursday and Friday.

A broad upper level ridge will prevail over the southeastern
CONUS Thursday and Friday. This will favor warming temperatures
and mainly dry conditions. Highs are expected to average 10 to
15 degrees above the seasonal norm...coupled with low afternoon
relative humidity...minimums of 20-30%.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Pattern change may bring series of fronts to the
area beginning this weekend and continuing next week with
opportunity for showers and closer to normal temperatures.

Upper level pattern looks more progressive for the end of the
month with flow becoming more zonal favoring more fronts to
potentially provide some moisture to our region on a more
routine schedule or wave pattern. The first in what looks to be
a series of fronts is forecast to cross the area Saturday with
repeat opportunities about every 2 to 3 days after that. This
will hopefully begin a change that will aid in drought
mitigation, or at least halt it from getting worse. Temperatures
also trend lower during this time frame, nothing extreme, but
readings closer to the seasonal norm. Increased opportunity for
clouds and showers should also bring dewpoints and relative
humidity up...a trend that would help mitigate fire threat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour valid
TAF.

Period of LLWS expected through 9AM/13Z per 30 to 35kt
southwest to west low level jet between 2-5kft AGL. After 13Z,
expecting winds to mix to the surface with gusts around 25 kts
across the mountains and values closer to 20 kts across the
Piedmont.

While there will be a small chance of showers across northern part
of the area during the day, as mentioned before, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Ceilings might dip as low as 5000 ft AGL over
parts of southeast West Virginia.

Gusts during the day will gradually subside during the evening
with speeds under 10 kts after sunset.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions are expected Thursday and Friday.

Sub-VFR conditions will grow in coverage Friday night through
Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are possible Saturday afternoon. Additionally
an abrupt wind shift northwest and increased gusts are expected
post-fropa Saturday afternoon.

For Sunday, lingering showers are still expected, although confidence
in their coverage and impacts on flight categories is still low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions are expected today associated with the
passage of a mainly dry front. A weak front over the Ohio
Valley will cross the area this afternoon bringing a period of
clouds and a few showers to areas north of Highway 460, but
little or no rain to areas south of 460, with mainly sunny skies
for North Carolina. Concern is for 20 to 30 mph wind gusts
today coupled with low afternoon humidity with weather conditions
along and south of the VA/NC border becoming unfavorable for
fire suppression, especially during the peak heating of the day.
A special weather statement highlighting these enhanced fire
danger conditions will be used to convey the message to the land
managers and general public today.

After today, the winds are expected to subside, but it will
remain dry through the remainder of the week with a notable
warming trend. Temperatures Thursday and Friday are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal with humidity minimums
between 20 and 30%.

Next notable chance of rain is Saturday. The last week of April
is looking wetter. A series of fronts are expected to bring some
needed moisture to the area next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...PM