Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

580
FXUS61 KRNK 212334
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
734 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the forecast given recent guidance. Still severe threat
Monday afternoon into evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Monday, some
of which may produce damaging wind gusts and localized flash
flooding. This will be followed by widely scattered afternoon &
evening storms later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
Monday, some of which may produce damaging wind gusts and localized
flash flooding. This will be followed by widely scattered afternoon
& evening storms later this week.

While abnormally warm and dry conditions with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies continue today, the focus shifts to an upper shortwave
and attendance sfc low progged to push across the area Monday,
bringing the next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some CAM consensus indicated convective initiation could start after
about 2-4 pm Monday then continue throughout the afternoon into the
evening before mainly decreasing in coverage into the overnight. As
far as intensity goes, deep layer bulk shear looks to be near 30-35
kts along with CAPE near 1500-2000 J/kg, so some more organized
convective modes could occur at strong to severe levels. Damaging
wind would be the main severe threat to focus on and the majority of
the CWA is under a Day 2 Slight Risk for severe weather from SPC.
Additionally there should be ample moisture in place with forecast
PWATs of near 1.75 inches so localized heavy rain and flooding would
be an additional threat to watch out for. Lapse rates aren`t
impressive but isolated large hail could still occur as well.

A weak disturbance could allow for some isolated general
thunder/shower chances to parts of the area on Tuesday otherwise the
forecast looks rather uneventful through Wednesday until deep layer
moisture builds back into the region along with possible other
disturbances along the upper flow. This will support shower and
storm potential for Thursday into the next weekend.

For temps, the max highs should be a bit lower on Tuesday in the
wake of the first stronger system, then gradually moderate warmer
through the rest of the week for much of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions look to prevail for much of the TAF period, with
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms likely leading to
brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions starting Monday
afternoon and evening for all area terminals. The presence of
upper level and some mid level clouds through the overnight
hours should limit morning river valley fog for KLWB, but if
enough clearing occurs prior to daybreak, it can`t be ruled out.
Winds will generally remain southwest at around 10-15 knots
gusting to 20 knots at times by the afternoon hours. Increasing
clouds from convection may lead to MVFR CIGs briefly at KBLF
and KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Looking ahead to the later half of the week, scattered diurnal
storms will likely develop during the heat of the afternoon,
potentially impacting scheduled afternoon and evening flights with
turbulent conditions and brief delays. Outside of the stormy
weather, the only other major threat to flight categories will come
from early-morning mountain valley and river fog bringing additional
windows of restricted visibility.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...EB