Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

107
FXUS61 KRNK 020025
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.

A Winter Weather Advisory for Monday into early Tuesday for the
Greenbrier/Monroe County WV area into the Alleghanys of VA from
Bath to Giles County.

Warmer trend aloft leads to more ice than snow, but still not a
lot.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nuisance wintry mix event Monday into early Tuesday mainly
the higher elevations of the Alleghanys and Blue Ridge.

2) Temperatures will be significantly above normal for
the second half of the week, with widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wintry mix to freezing rain/rain Monday into
Monday night, becoming all rain Tuesday before tapering off.

Day 1 of meteorological Spring brings a front through then
winter rears his head again Monday into Tuesday. Trends and
pattern recognition favor a wintry mix to push in from the west
by dawn in the mountains but will become a white rain/sleet to
freezing rain to rain event along the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys.
Some token snow or sleet may reach as far southeast as southside
VA but nothing of consequence expected.

We are coming out of a warmer weekend which in turn will lead to
less ice/snow accumulation on road surfaces, and will be more of
a grassy/metal/tree object event. However, temps sinking into
the 20s Monday across the Alleghanys into Greenbrier County WV
lead to potential icing on elevated roadways/bridges, so have
put an advisory out to cover that. Further east, ice will likely
accumulate along the Blue Ridge as far south as Meadows of
Dan/Fancy Gap, but coverage is sparse so will not put an
advisory at this time for this area.

Any snow/sleet will be an inch or less.

Wedge is strongest Monday with highs in the upper 20s to lower
30s along the higher Alleghanys and Blue Ridge to mid to upper
30s in the valleys as well as central VA Piedmont with upper 30s
to lower 40s into NC/southside VA. Outside the wedge over
toward Richlands and Chilhowie, expect some upper 40s.

Precip changes to all rain by mid morning Tuesday, but wedge
erodes slowly with rain tapering off over most of the area by
the end of the day. Tuesday highs vary and could bust either too
cold or too warm as some models bring some breaks in the cloud
cover across the southwest VA/NW NC area in the afternoon as far
northeast as the New River Valley. Leaning toward more
pessimistic given its early March and mixing is weak. Still low
level flow will turn more southeast to south so have highs
warmer than Monday with upper 40s to lower 50s in the Greenbrier
Valley to central VA Piedmont and along the Blue Ridge to mid
50s for most of the rest of VA into NC, then warmer in the lower
60s across the upper TN Valley west of Marion/Tazewell.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will be significantly above normal for
the second half of the week, with widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon.


By Tuesday night, windflow will have shifted southerly across the
lower Mid-Atlantic with the passage of a warm front earlier in the
day. Through the remainder of the week, upper level ridging will
gradually amplify as an upper level trough settles near the Four
Corners Region of the Intermountain West. This will allow daily
temperatures to warm 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early March,
with highs reaching into the 60s to 70s on Wednesday, and solidly
into the 70s areawide for Thursday through Saturday, while flirting
with 80 across the Piedmont of northern North Carolina by the
weekend. With southerly windflow comes increased Gulf moisture,
making for widely-scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through about 09z, then lower cigs will move into
BLF/LWB/BCB between 10z-13z. Cigs will lower in the east a few
hours after this as well. Expect cigs to continue lowering
throughout the day Monday, dropping below 1kft at all terminals
by the afternoon.

A mix of wintry weather and rain will accompany the sub-VFR
cigs, further worsening flight conditions. It will begin as a
mix of sleet and freezing rain for most TAF sites between
12z-14z for BLF/LWB. By the afternoon, DAN/LYH may also
experience a few brief periods of snow. Snow accumulation not
expected, but icing will be a concern, as even though surface
temps may temporarily rise above freezing in the afternoon and
evening, flight level temps may be well below freezing.

West to northwest winds behind front may gust to 20kts in the
mountains this afternoon, then weaken and shift to the northeast
to east later tonight into Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

During Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, aviation
conditions will be the worst, with low cigs and wintry mix at
times, becoming all rain for most terminals. Rain should taper
off Tuesday but expect lower cigs to remain til the warm front
lifts north Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will be warming up
with chance for showers/maybe a few TSRA late in the week, but
should be mostly VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday
     for VAZ011-018>020.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday
     for WVZ044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NF/WP
AVIATION...VFJ/WP