Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

065
FXUS61 KRNK 230357
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1057 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northeast through the Ohio Valley and
into the northern Mid-Atlantic overnight. This will bring some
light rain to mountain locations, with West Virginia seeing the
highest rain chances. After the passage of the warm front, look
for fair weather to return for mid-week as high pressure moves
across the region. By Christmas day, clouds will return with an
opportunity for some light rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1055 PM EST Monday...

No changes to going forecast.

Key Message:

1) Chance of light rain between midnight and daybreak Tuesday.

2) Some light freezing rain can`t be ruled out across Greenbrier,
Bath, and Summers counties. Greatest chance for a light glaze is
from Lewisburg northward.

3) Warm but breezy Tuesday afternoon.

An upper level disturbance and low level warm front will slide
through the Ohio valley and into the central Appalachians
overnight. This will bring some light rain to mountain
locations...beginning midnight and continuing through daybreak.
Some light freezing rain can`t be ruled out for higher terrain
locations across SE West Virginia and VA border counties (VA
Highlands) where temperatures will hang around the freezing
mark for a couple of hours as rain starts. These temperatures
look to quickly rise above freezing prior to sunrise as warm air
advection continues to funnel warmer air into the region from
the southwest as the aforementioned warm front lifts northeast.
The freezing rain may lead to isolated slick spots across the
aforementioned areas for the Tuesday morning commute; however,
confidence is low as to how widespread any ice accumulations
will be. At this time probability for trace icing is highest
from Greenbrier county northward, so a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for these locations.

Low temperatures Tuesday morning will fall to near or just
above freezing...clouds tonight preventing us from falling back
below 32 F. For Tuesday, temperatures should rebound with the
passage of the warm front. This will introduce us to a much
warmer airmass...85H temps of +8 deg C. Winds a few thousand
feet off the ground are also forecast to increase above 40kts,
so look for breezy conditions for the afternoon to go along with
the warming temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. No chances for a White Christmas - well above normal temperatures
through the middle of the week.

2. Chances for rain for the mountains Christmas Day, though amounts
remain low.

The 500mb pattern through the short term forecast period resembles
more of a summer time pattern than that of winter, with a strong
ridge encompassing most of the central US, and weak shortwaves
riding along the periphery of said ridge and into the area in the
upper northwesterly flow. One disturbance arrives late Christmas
Eve, bringing rain to the mountains through much of Christmas Day.
Downsloping flow into the Piedmont will limit much precipitation
east of the Blue Ridge to a few hundredths of an inch. The
mountains, and mainly of southeast WV, will see up to a third of an
inch through Thursday night.

Well above freezing temperatures will mean that all of the
precipitation will fall as rain, so no White Christmas in the
forecast this year for the region. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the mid 60s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 50s in the
mountains Wednesday and Thursday, and lows in the 40s. Highs could
be tempered by cloud cover through the period and rain Thursday,
especially in the mountains, so thinking temperatures will lean on
the cooler side of guidance, and guidance has also been trending as
such through the past few days. Nonetheless, these temperatures are
still 15 degrees or so above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain expected Friday, drier for Saturday, then more rain returns
Sunday.

2. Warm temperatures into the weekend, cooler air approaches early
next week.

The 500mb ridge that had a firm grip over the central US will
flatten by the end of the work week, and a surface low pressure
system will track across the northern tier of the country, the warm
front lifting north through the area Friday. The positioning of the
ridge to the southwest of the area is not as favorable for a
significant surge of Gulf moisture into the area, but still enough
moisture advection for rain chances to continue through Friday. The
center of the surface low looks to remain north of the area, keeping
the strong lift over the northern Mid Atlantic region, and thus
keeping the heavier rain north of VA. Westerly flow aloft will once
again keep precipitation chances and amounts low in the Piedmont,
higher over the mountains. This system will move away by Saturday,
leading to drier weather for the area to start the weekend.

A stronger 500mb trough will drive another low pressure system
across the eastern US by Sunday, with a cold front progged to trail
as far south as the Gulf Coast, and a large, cooler airmass
following behind. Will see some rain associated with the frontal
passage Sunday, and stronger post frontal winds Monday. This will
also bring about a push of colder air for the start of the next work
week. There is a fairly large spread in forecast highs Monday,
indicating more uncertainty, likely dependent on the timing of the
front itself and strength of the high pressure, which would
influence how far south the cold air can make it.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 900 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions look to prevail through the TAF period for all
terminals except BLF and LWB where some MVFR CIGs look to
develop towards the early morning hours on Tuesday. Light
south to southeast winds are expected through tonight...speeds
generally under 8 kts. Some LLWS looks to develop at nearly all
terminals except LYH towards the early morning hours Tuesday as
a warm front crosses the area. Passage of the front will bring
onset of gusty west/northwest winds Tuesday afternoon.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure returns mid week before an additional upper level
system pushes into the region on Thursday possibly bringing
Sub- VFR conditions to the area to end the holiday week.

Tuesday night-Wednesday, mainly VFR.

Wed night-Christmas...light rain showers in the mountains with
sub-VFR possible. Mainly VFR east.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM