Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS61 KRNK 100617
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
217 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Rainfall amounts trended upward slightly for Sunday/Monday system,
up to a third of an inch possible, highest along and west of the
Blue Ridge. Still looks to be a tenth of an inch or less from the
foothills and eastward.

Patchy frost in the mountains Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few chances for precipitation this week, Sunday/Monday and
again midweek.

2. Patchy frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning. Near
to just below normal temperatures, warming up by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few chances for precipitation this week,
Sunday/Monday and again midweek.

A front will reach the area later today, bringing rain showers late
tonight through tomorrow. The majority of the rain will fall through
the day Monday, with the highest amounts along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Without flow from the Gulf and strong moisture advection,
rainfall amounts will generally be light. Amounts have trended
upward slightly for this forecast package, up to a third of an inch
in the mountains, but still a tenth of an inch or less from the
Foothills and eastward. The climate site at Danville VA currently
sits at around half its normal yearly accumulated precipitation
(about 7.77" so far this year, compared to 14.23" normal year
accumulation), so, while any bit of rain will be beneficial, not
expecting much improvement in the ongoing drought conditions.

The rain will quickly come to an end for the area by Monday evening
as the front moves away from the area. Another front approaches the
area by the middle of the week to bring another round of showers and
possible thunderstorms, as a surface low moves into the Great Lakes
region. Initial rainfall amounts look to be light again for this
system, but could be locally heavier in thunderstorms. Again, this
rain will be beneficial for the area, but still not drought busting.

High pressure returns to the area by the end of the week, promoting
dry weather Thursday and Friday. Low chances for mountain
showers/storms over the weekend, with a weak shortwave moving in
from the west, but doesn`t look like widespread coverage at this
time.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Patchy frost possible in the mountains Tuesday
morning. Near to just below normal temperatures, warming up by
next weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the front Monday, with a colder
airmass moving into the region. Clearer skies overnight and light to
calms winds will mean a good set up for radiational cooling, and
could see some patchy frost in the mountains, mainly the Greenbrier
Valley and other sheltered mountain valleys Tuesday morning.
However, not expecting the frost to be widespread enough to warrant
any headlines at this time, but still something to monitor,
especially with more not-as-cold-tolerant vegetation growing at this
point in May.

Today will be the warmest day of the forecast, low to mid 70s in the
mountains, and low 80s in the Piedmont. After the frontal passage, t
he first half of the work week overall will be cooler than normal,
with high temperatures in the low 60s in the mountains and low 70s
in the Piedmont Monday and Tuesday. Warming up slightly by Wednesday
as a warm front lifts northward in the OH Valley, highs in the mid
60s in the west and low to mid 70s in the east. Behind the next
frontal passage, Thursday will have highs in the upper 50s in the
higher elevations, mid 60s elsewhere in the mountains, and low 70s
for the east. After that, warming temperatures are expected, rising
to near to above normal by the weekend, with high pressure returning
the region and some weak 500mb ridging developing.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions look to linger through the TAF period, with some
upper level cirrus clouds exiting the area towards the early morning
hours on Sunday. This should lead to mostly clear skies early today
before some high scattered cu develop in the 5-7 thousand foot
range. These CIGs will not lead to any restrictions at any terminals
through the TAF period.

Winds will generally remain out of the west/southwest at around 5-10
knots at all terminals. Gusts in the 15-20 knot range is expected at
mountain terminals, with KDAN and KLYH likely seeing the lower end
of this range through the afternoon. Winds look to go calm overnight
before transition to northerly/northeasterly by daybreak.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front arrives just after the end of the TAF period by early
Monday morning. This will bring a chance for showers with some
isolated thunder. The potential for Sub-VFR flight conditions looks
possible early Monday. VFR conditions look to return late Monday
into Tuesday and linger across all terminals until another frontal
boundary arrives late Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing
another round of possible showers and sub-VFR conditions for all
area terminals.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...EB