Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

154
FXUS61 KRNK 130627
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
127 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Quiet weather continues until the next system moves in late
Wednesday into Thursday. The system is still expected to bring
snow, but the system is looking warmer and drier, which has
lowered snow totals slightly and confined accumulating snow to
areas west of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures late week also have
trended colder, with lows in the teens and gusty winds causing
wind chills to be around zero west of the Blue Ridge, with below
zero wind chills in the highest elevations for several mornings
through next week. The pattern also remains favorable for
winter weather chances through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Next system moves in tomorrow afternoon, with accumulating
   snow expected in the mountains and light snow west of the
   Blue Ridge.


2) Colder conditions should follow for the end of this week and into
   early next week.

3) Additional rounds of light snow possible this weekend for mainly the
   mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Next system moves in tomorrow afternoon, with accumulating
snow expected in the mountains and light snow west of the Blue
Ridge.

A deep upper level trough will quickly dig south into the
eastern conus starting early Wednesday morning. The leading edge
of this trough will be associated with rather significant 500mb
height falls across the region. Ahead of these height falls,
will be a cold front, with rain showers along its leading edge
expected to push into mountain locations by the mid morning
hours on Wednesday. As the cold front pushes through the area,
temperatures will quickly cool; however, the intrusion of dry
air combined with westerly winds downsloping east of the Blue
Ridge, will keep any chances for snow showers east of the Blue
Ridge limited to mostly rain. Snow totals for mountain locations
have again decreased, with the best chances for accumulating
snow now relegated to areas west of the I-81 corridor. Areas
between the I-81 corridor and western facing sloped
counties/higher terrain locations will likely see a dusting to
up to a few tenths of new snow accumulations. Western facing
slopes have the best potential of seeing accumulating snow, with
1-2" for western facing sloped counties in SE West Virginia and
SW Virginia. Western Greenbrier county is still expected to
have the best potential for seeing accumulating snow, with 2-4"
forecast. Post frontal upslope snow showers should diminish
during the mid morning hours on Thursday.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Colder conditions should follow for the end of this
week and into early next week.

A train of upper level troughs look to enter into the region
starting late Wednesday. These upper level troughs will
introduce much lower 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures in the -5
to -20 degree Celsius range through at least next Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures much cooler compared to the last week or
two, with several morning lows in the low teens across mountain
locations, and low 20s to upper teens across Piedmont
locations. The combination of gusty northwest winds and cold air behind
the first cold front on Thursday may lead to wind chill values
reaching below zero for a few locations west of the Blue Ridge.
An additional shortwave trough entering the region late Sunday
into Monday will bring another wave of cold air and gusty
conditions to the region. This may lead to another chance for
sub zero wind chills across mountain locations early Monday
morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Additional rounds of light snow possible this weekend
for mainly the mountains.

A couple of shortwave troughs are expected to cross the Great Lakes
region over the weekend. The first will cross Friday night into
Saturday morning. The second will be on the heels of the first,
crossing a bit farther south Saturday afternoon and night.
Additionally, some deterministic guidance offers yet a third,
crossing Monday into Tuesday. These systems are expected to bring
some light precipitation to our region. The activity will be
primarily northwest flow induced snow showers both for Saturday
morning into Saturday early evening with the first feature. The
second feature will have a bit more upper level support crossing the
area. The event for late Saturday night through Sunday evening may
allow for some light rain/snow across parts of the Piedmont in
addition to activity over the mountains. Timing of both of these
systems has been fluctuating each model run. Therein lies one of the
facts which still allows for low confidence on timing/impacts for
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Tuesday...

Clear skies will continue through the night for all terminals,
with quiet weather and VFR flight conditions. Southwest winds at
around 5 knots or less look to develop throughout the mid
morning hours today, with winds picking up to around 5-10 knots
for nearly all terminals after 18 UTC. Gusts look to remain
around 15-20 knots through the afternoon hours. VFR conditions
look to remain through the TAF period for all terminals, with
some upper level clouds moving into the region towards the tail
end of the TAF period for LWB and BLF. Tomorrow evening around
00 UTC, some LLWS is expected to develop across the mountains,
particularly for BLF, LWB, and BCB. This is due to an
approaching upper level trough. The LLWS continues into Tuesday
night, with it likely dissipating towards the 12 UTC timeframe
on Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain/snow showers will begin in the mountains Wednesday
afternoon, spreading east but changing to all snow after sunset
west of the Blue Ridge. The snow combined with gusty winds of
20-30 knots will significantly lower VSBY and cigs. The snow
continues for Thursday, but likely will only affect BLF/LWB,
with flurries possible east to the Blue Ridge. Snow winds down
late Thursday, with VFR returning Thursday night into Friday.
Another weak system moves into the area Friday night into
Saturday, again bringing snow chances to most of the area, which
would lower flight conditions to sub- VFR. Much colder weather
is expected late week through the weekend and into early next
week. Lows in the teens are expected, with gusty winds causing
wind chills to be in the single digits to below zero for
locations west of the Blue Ridge for several mornings.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/EB
AVIATION...EB