Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS61 KRNK 011120
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Update.

Previous Discussion:

Some uncertainty continues to remain with the system early next
week. There is moderate confidence that this system will bring
at least minor winter weather impacts to the area. Snow (Monday)
and ice (Tuesday) accumulations mainly along the Blue Ridge and
along and north of Highway 460. New snow accumulations look to
be generally an inch or less for locations north of 460 and west
of the Blue Ridge, while new ice accumulations look to remain
around 0.01 to 0.10 for the same locations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wintry Mix possible early next week, but plenty of uncertainty
remains.

2) Above average temperatures return mid week and continue
through the weekend, with showery weather Thursday through
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wintry Mix possible early next
week, but plenty of uncertainty remains.


Model disagreement continues to plague confidence in the forecast
for an upcoming winter system. However, with some short term models
available, the pieces are slowly starting to come together. A
surface high pressure system to our north will move eastward and
into the Atlantic. It will wedge itself into the mountains and
promote cold air damming and leave some cooler and drier air in the
vicinity. Compared to previous forecasts, precipitation early next
week is looking more likely. Model guidance has more agreement in
mid-level vorticity passing through the Mid-Atlantic. It is at this
point where confidence in the forecast drops. There are two major
components that are making the winter system forecast difficult. The
first is with QPF. There is no model consensus that confidently
narrows down the amount of moisture that will be available during
the event. This means there is high uncertainty on how much
rain/freezing rain/snow can be expected with this storm. The other
issue is temperatures, both air and dew points. It is not clear how
long the cold air damming will hold while the event proceeds. If the
air remains dry at the surface, this would evaporate precipitation
early in the event but keep temperatures cold and reinforce the CAD.
Given the discrepancies with QPF values, the drier air could result
in attenuating the totals of any precipitation at the surface. In
addition, how long the surface can remain around freezing to promote
accumulation of ice/snow will also play a role in impacts.

Regardless of the headache of the forecast, the big picture is the
following. Cold air damming is likely to occur with the surface high
pressure system to our north. Cold and drier air will be trapped in
the Mid-Atlantic around the start of the winter system which will
likely be Monday morning. Temperatures at the surface and aloft may
support wintry mix for the area with snow more likely towards the
northeast and freezing rain towards the southwest of the forecast
area. As the day progresses, warmer air aloft moves from the
southwest, aided by a modest 850mb jet. This will push the cold air
aloft away and promote a warm nose sounding which transitions the
dominant precipitation type to freezing rain for areas in and
northeast of the NRV and in the Alleghany Highlands and Shenandoah.
Above freezing temperatures should be widespread by Tuesday
afternoon which will transition all precipitation to just rain.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Above average temperatures return mid week and
continue through the weekend, with showery weather Thursday
through Sunday.

Well above average temperatures overtake the region starting
Wednesday, as a 585dam 500mb ridge settles across the east
coast. This combined with surface high pressure off the east
coast of Florida will allow southerly flow and warm air to
spill north across the region starting Wednesday. This upper
level ridge and subsequent 500mb height anomalies look to remain
quasi-stationary across the eastern conus through the weekend.
Given these anomalous 500mb heights, probabilities of high
temperatures expected to climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s
areawide each day is high. Temperatures this high will be
running 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

While the aforementioned ridge remains in place, several
shortwave disturbances look to ride over the top of the ridges
starting Thursday. This will bring rain shower and possible
thunderstorm chances to the area Thursday through Sunday. The
first shortwave disturbance looks to lay out a west/east
orientated stationary front looks to linger across the region
through the weekend, and may provide a focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through today;
however DAN is currently experiencing some fog that has lead to
some IFR VSBYs. These restrictions should lift shortly after
daybreak if not sooner. Some brief MVFR CIGs may develop at BLF
and LWB during the morning hours today as a quick moving cold
front pushes through the region today. Beyond this brief
possibility of restrictions developing at BLF and LWB, VFR
conditions are expected at all other terminals through most of
the TAF period. MVFR CIGs look to develop towards the end of the
TAF period between 09-12 UTC Monday at BLF, LWB, ROA, and BCB.
DAN and LYH look to drop to MVFR CIGs after 12 UTC Monday.

Winds will generally remain light overnight out of the
west/northwest, but may get gusty to around 15 to 20 knots by
the mid morning hours across mountain terminals. Gusty winds
look to diminish around sunset as winds start to quickly
transition from west/northwest winds to northerly/northeasterly
winds shortly after 00 UTC Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An upper level shortwave trough pushing across the area Monday
may bring some wintry precipitation as temperatures may be cold
enough for a wintry mix Monday night, with the potential for
freezing rain, otherwise the main precipitation type is expected
to be rain. The front is expected to lift north of the region
by Wednesday with conditions improving to MVFR and possibly VFR.
Shower chances arrive Thursday but looks scattered, so overall
mainly VFR later in the week outside of any vsby restriction
from showers.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB
AVIATION...EB