Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

155
FXUS61 KRNK 231857
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
157 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warnings have replaced the Winter Storm Watches for
the entire forecast area. These Winter Storm Warnings will be in
effect from 1:00pm Saturday to 1:00pm Monday

Models have continued to adjust and have begun to come into
better agreement that the heaviest snow amounts will fall along
and north of the US 460 corridor. Lesser snow amounts and more
ice potential will lie along the VA/NC border and south. The
biggest zone of uncertainty between snow and ice amounts
continue to be within a zone from the New River and Roanoke
Valleys and east towards Lynchburg.

Onset of the wintry precipitation has trended slightly slower
and looks to begin sometime during the late afternoon on
Saturday for areas west of I-77, and closer to the evening on
Saturday between 5-7pm for areas east of I-77.

It is important to note that subtle changes in the storm track
will have significant changes to overall snow amounts, but will
not change the overall impact of the storm severity. Whether we
get heavy snow, sleet or freezing rain, the impacts are going
to be severe. As much as 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent
precipitation is being forecast from Saturday through early
Monday. This is a lot of areawide precipitation to fall as snow,
sleet, and freezing rain. Have your winter preparations
finished by Saturday morning.

Temperatures for next week continue to trend colder, especially
Tuesday morning and Thursday mornings with near record lows
possible in spots. A potentially record breaking prolonged
period around or below freezing will continue through the
entirety of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected Saturday into
Sunday, with increasing confidence in precipitation type.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Some of the coldest air in years is expected to
move in behind the storm early next week, lingering for the
entirety of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected Saturday into
Sunday night/Monday morning, with increasing confidence in
precipitation type.

Confidence is high that an impactful winter storm will move through
the region starting early Saturday afternoon at the earliest,
and continuing through Monday morning.

Initial precipitation type should be snow for locations north of
the VA/NC border. South of the VA/NC border may have a brief
period of snow, followed by an extended period of sleet, then
followed by a slower transition to freezing rain sometime on
Sunday late morning and afternoon. Snow, once it begins, will
be heavy at times and will quickly accumulate on all surfaces.
This will result in rapidly deteriorating conditions on Saturday
night.

High confidence ensemble support for a 1 to 2 degree Celsius
700mb warm nose developing over the region from the south
Saturday night and pushing north during Sunday morning across
the region. Ensemble support is now showing this initial 1 to 2
degree Celsius warm nose may grow to a 3 to 6 degree warm nose
by Sunday morning and afternoon. This will gradually begin to
turn the predominant precipitation type from snow to sleet. This
warm layer will continue to increase in the VA/NC border
vicinity and could result in sleet changing to freezing rain on
Sunday. Still think north of VA/NC border will remain mostly
sleet once the transition occurs. Still not 100% on board with
some of the high end freezing rain accumulations being shown by
some guidance, so have tapered those amounts have been kept
relatively constant from the previous forecast. With the higher
chances of freezing rain further south, still have 0.3" to
0.5" across southern VA, north central NC and especially the NC
Mountains.

Even though this warm nose aloft may increase to
these levels, surface temperatures will struggle to warm across
the region due to a 1040mb surface high pressure parked over
the Northeast. This surface high will create a strong Cold Air
Damming setup across the region Saturday through Monday morning.
This setup will keep surface temperatures solidly in the mid to
upper teens areawide Saturday night into Sunday. Some guidance
warms temperatures Sunday afternoon into the upper 20s to low
30s, but based off the position and strength of the high, along
with continued precipitation into the cold air mass, diurnal
warming of any kind will be small and currently do not believe
it will warm that significantly.

The only uncertainty that may arise, which is being hinted in
some CAM guidance, is that a dry slot may form as the southern
surface low starts to transition to the new surface low
developing along the baroclinic zone off the Mid-Atlantic states
coastline. This may perhaps provide a 6-12 hour window of
lighter than forecast totals across the area depending on where
the main axis of forcing along the warm front lifts across the
forecast area.

Given the potential aforementioned warm nose developing aloft, NBM
probabilities for 10" of snowfall has lowered once again for
areas primarily south of I-64. The highest probabilities remain
along and north of the I64 corridor from Greenbrier County to
Rockbridge County, with probabilities quickly tapering off
moving south towards Roanoke and the New River Valleys.

Since sleet typically has a liquid equivalent ratio of roughly (2-
1/3-1), we could potentially see additional sleet totals on top of
any snow that falls early on in the event. The snow that does fall
into this extremely cold and dry airmass will be very fluffy and
light, while the sleet that falls on top will lead to a heavy crust
on top of the previously fallen snow.

Once the event starts, it will not be safe to travel across area
roadways, as travel will become extremely dangerous to
impossible. Motorists that become stranded, may have to wait
hours in frigid cold temperatures for emergency services to come
to their aid.

Again, regardless of snowfall totals, this event will bring
major impacts to travel across the region. Be prepared for
dangerous travel conditions from Saturday afternoon, through
Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Some of the coldest air in years is expected to move
in behind the storm early next week, lingering for the entirety of
next week.

Although the primary focus is on the winter storm this weekend,
another growing concern is the bitterly cold temperatures early next
week. A strong high pressure over the central CONUS will drive in
colder air from Canada. Winds will also be elevated Monday, around
10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph area-wide. The ridgetops will see
gusts of 30-40+ mph, adding insult to injury. These strong wind
gusts will likely cause additional power outages, as any trees and
power lines coated in ice or snow will be strained further in the
gusty winds.

Monday night looks to be the coldest of the period, as the snow and
ice on the ground will not have melted much during the day with
temperatures staying well below freezing. With the ground covered in
ice and snow, colder air will travel further southeast and moderate
less. Due to this, overnight lows Monday night will fall to near
zero in the Piedmont, with below zero temperatures west of the Blue
Ridge. These lows will be the coldest in at least 4 years for
locations along the Blue Ridge, and coldest in 8 years for the
Piedmont. Some models have indicated the lows could be even colder,
so these could change. A few locations could challenge record lows
for the day. The bitter cold temperatures along with the winds
gusting around 20 mph overnight will cause wind chills to be
dangerously cold. Below zero wind chills will be area-wide, with
areas west of the Blue Ridge seeing -10 to -20 degree wind chills.
These values would warrant an Extreme Cold Warning if the forecast
persists. This is especially concerning considering there may be
numerous power outages across the area from the weekend winter
storm, so being prepared and having a backup heat source will be
vital early next week. Without a heat source, these temperatures
will be life-threatening.

Although Tuesday morning will be the coldest period next week,
temperatures continue to stay very cold. Highs will likely stay near
to below freezing for most, if not all of the area for the entirety
of next week. This will cause any snow/ice that fell over the
weekend to struggle to melt for many days, with any radiation
melting from the sun quickly refreezing each night. Any roads that
are not cleared/retreated will remain difficult or even impossible
to travel on. Overnight lows will continue to be in the single
digits to low teens each night. To put this cold stretch in
perspective, this could be the longest stretch of consecutive days
below freezing for many areas possibly ever on record, especially
along the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont. Another cold front
passes by late week, reinforcing cold air and again causing lows to
be near zero with wind chills again around -10 to -15 degrees west
of the Blue Ridge. Please prepare now for an extended duration of
extremely cold weather following the winter storm this weekend, your
life could depend on it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Some high clouds will
begin to filter in late Saturday morning ahead of an impending
winter storm. A few light snow showers will begin in the afternoon,
starting in the west with BLF. Timing confidence is not high enough
that these are listed in the TAF, as the winter storm is expected to
begin in earnest later in the afternoon.

Winds are currently out of the west or northwest, but will turn to
the northeast Saturday morning. Wind speeds will generally be 5-
10kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A strong winter storm will make its presence felt starting in the
afternoon on Saturday. Impacts will be widespread and long lasting.
Saturday and Saturday night expect mostly snow, with periods of
heavy snow, at all areas. Visibility will be significantly reduced
during the snow. Come Sunday, there will be a transition to sleet
and freezing rain, which will cause significant icing risks through
most of Sunday.

Following the winter storm, there will be bitter cold temperatures
during the week, but little active precipitation or vsby issues.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST
Monday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.

NC... Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST
Monday for NCZ001>006-018>020.

WV... Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST
Monday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/VFJ
AVIATION...VFJ