Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS61 KRNK 081747
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast Discussion Updated.

Aviation Discussion Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm conditions continue.

2) Multiple days of precipitation possible starting on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warm conditions continue.

A large ridge will continue to move eastward and settle over the
Georgia/South Carolina border by Thursday. The ridge will provide
warmer than average temperatures for the region with highs
progressively increasing each day until their peak on Thursday. By
this day, highs will likely be in the mid-80s to mid-90s with heat
index values as high as 100 in the Piedmont. Heat Advisory criteria
is unlikely to be met but conditions will still be hot for this time
of year so vulnerable populations are encouraged to take precautions
to prevent heat related illnesses. An approaching cold front may
take longer to arrive and pass through than previously thought
so warm conditions may still persist into the weekend.


Key Message 2: Multiple days of precipitation possible starting by
Thursday.

The ridge moving eastward will split into two parts with one over
the southeastern United States and the other over the southwestern
part of CONUS. A cold front with an associated mid-level trough will
pass through Thursday night into Friday morning and push our
ridge further east and into Bermuda. The timing of this system`s
passage is still a little questionable and will be monitored in
future forecasts. While wind shear and CAPE will be available
on Friday afternoon and evening, abysmal lapse rates of 5.0-5.5
C/km will prevent any serious convection and storm
organization. Rain is still possible and areas to the west are
likely to receive the most as the cold front moves through. As
the mid-level ridge is pushed out, a trough takes advantage of
the gap between the ridges and forms to our west and passes
through the region during the weekend. This wave and the energy
it supplies will likely keep precipitation chances going
throughout the weekend. While severe chances overall are low for
this whole period, flooding is a concern if there are repeated
waves of rain over the same area. PWATs are expected to increase
to anomalously high values between 1.5-1.75". Some
deterministic models do not rule out high end values of up to
2" which would be double than what is average for this time of
year. The forecast for this weekend has seen several edits so
stay tuned for additional updates on rainfall totals and
potential flood hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR skies for all terminals for the rest of the day as higher
pressure dominates the region. Overnight fog is possible again for
KLWB with a return to VFR status shortly after sunrise. Winds
will remain light and between 5-10 knots and may change
direction to southwesterly by Wednesday afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR skies to continue outside of early morning fog at KLWB for
Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front may pass through Thursday
night and into Friday morning followed by another mid-level
shortwave system by the weekend. This will result in several
periods of rainfall and precipitation chances from Thursday
night into early next week. While severe weather currently looks
unlikely, heavy rainfall will reduce visibilities and likely
place most of the terminals with MVFR status or worse.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG