Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS61 KRNK 180036
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
836 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #590 has been cancelled for our West
Virginia and Virginia counties. The watch remains in effect for
our North Carolina Counties through 10 p.m.

The Flood Watch has been cancelled.

The aviation discussion has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
over the next hour or two.

2) Dry weather returns Tuesday, with the next rain chances
forecast Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
over the next hour or two.

Pretty much as expected, a convective complex developed to our
west and moved across our southern tier of counties late this
afternoon and early this evening. The focus for isolated strong
or severe storms has largely shifted south of our forecast area
this evening with the main line of convection. The atmosphere
has been pretty worked over from these storms across southern
Virginia and northern North Carolina. Given the lessening risk
of damaging winds, I`ve gone ahead and cancelled Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #590 for my West Virginia and Virginia
Counties based on this. Because an isolated stronger storm can`t
be ruled out across my North Carolina counties, I`ve left the
watch in effect here for the time being. In all honesty, though,
don`t be surprised if this is cancelled early if trends
continue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry weather returns Tuesday, with the next rain chances forecast
Thursday through Saturday.

Behind the passage of a cold front on Monday, drier air is expected
to advect into the region. This will lead to significantly reduced
shower and thunderstorm chances, with near zero chances forecast
Tuesday and Wednesday for the area. An upper level trough and
additional cold front pushes into the area late Thursday, which
looks to bring shower and thunderstorm chances back into the region.
Temperatures also look to return to seasonal values as this upper
level trough effectively returns the upper level ridge back west
into the western Conus by the end of next week. The aforementioned
frontal boundary does look to get hung up across the region through
Saturday, leading to scattered rain and thunderstorm chances daily
starting Thursday once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lowered CIGs/VSBYs will remain possible overnight IVOF ISOLD-
SCTD SHRA/TSRA ahead of an E-moving cold front. The greatest
coverage of convection will largely be in NC this evening (associated
with this afternoon`s convective complex). Additional SHRA may
be seen along the front overnight, primarily across SE WV
terminals, with some BR/low St. IFR-MVFR level restrictions will
be likely primarily W of the Blue Ridge.

Restrictions should lift by mid-morning Tuesday, with VFR flight
categories expected for much of the day. W winds should veer to
a more NW direction, with most speeds around 10 kts. with
occasional morning gusts.

OUTLOOK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night- Wednesday night: Possible late night CIG/VSBY
restrictions due to BR/low St. Otherwise, VFR expected.

Thursday-Saturday: Possibility of seeing SHRA/TSRA returns.
Restrictions possible IVOF convection, as well as overnight with
BR/low St.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms were pretty anemic across the (former)
Flood Watch area this afternoon. Based on this, and the
anticipated return to drier conditions over the next few days,
I`ve cancelled the Flood Watch.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/SH
AVIATION...DB
HYDROLOGY...DB