Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

593
FXUS61 KRNK 031051
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
651 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z Aviation update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flash flood potential has decreased but there is still a
marginal risk for localized heavy rain today.

2) Unsettled weather continues through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Flash flood potential has decreased but there
is still a marginal risk for localized heavy rain today.

An anomalous slow moving upper level low centered just to our
west will continue to plague the forecast area with broad
synoptic ascent impinging into an abundance of moisture laden
air over the eastern CONUS. Regional 00Z U/A regional soundings
measured PWATs from 1.6 to 2.0 inches, down slightly from
yesterdays 12Z numbers but still around the 90th percentile
compared to normal. This environment remains ripe for for heavy
rain, promoting high rainfall rates and efficiency.

Area to watch today will be surface front associated with the
upper trough, this front becoming aligned with the Blue Ridge
this afternoon. As such, think this will be the place to watch
for thunderstorm development during the afternoon with
opportunity for some repeat rainfall over the same areas of
which received heavy rain Saturday night within Patrick and
Surry Counties. Both the NamNest and RRFS suggest storm cells to
develop vctny of Meadows of Dan or between Hillsville and
Martinsville along the Hwy 58 Corridor...and along the southern
Blue Ridge into NC. Other storm cells are expected initiate
along the front as it moves east of CHO-LYH, the front moving
farther east along its northern extent that it does along the
southern Blue Ridge.

Attm will hold off on an areal flood watch and wait to see where
actual initiation takes place before doing a more targeted
headline. We also, in coordination with public officials, have a
flood watch for some of the dams within the headwaters of the
Ararat River given the inundation that took place there over the
weekend (see hydro section of this AFD for details).

The actual surface front should move east of the mountains
tonight, models suggesting winds shifting to the north this
evening, then from a northeasterly direction overnight. The
northeast wind may result in additional convergence as a shallow
wedge develops east of the Blue Ridge overnight yet still
encountering some southerly flow aloft that will be overrunning
the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues through much of the
week.

The closed low is forecast to gradually settle southeast over
the southern Appalachians tonight and Tuesday before weakening
and shearing out mid week. Models suggest that Tuesday should
be a quieter day per stable wedge but then upslope southeast
wind flow develops Tuesday night, with rain redeveloping from
south to north across the forecast area, maintaining opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms with marginal risk of excessive
rainfall. After mid-week, we still have daily afternoon and
evening thundershower chances, but no real change in airmass. In
general weather will stay moist with surface dewpoints flirting
with 70 the entire week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of fog this morning within the mountain valleys, otherwise
expecting just sct-bkn cloud deck through 15Z/11AM per
increasing southerly flow ahead of a weak cold front. Look for
cloud buildups over the mountains toward Noon/16Z then
developing into scattered showers/storms early afternoon and
drifting east of the mountains as the front moves into the
piedmont toward 21Z/5PM. The greatest storm coverage today is
expected to be along the front and in general alignment with
the Blue Ridge.

Behind the front, expect north, then northeast winds...speed
generally 10 kts or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered shower/storm are expected for much of the upcoming
week, but favoring the peak heating hours of the day,
diminishing after sunset. The moisture laden airmass will favor
sub-VFR flight conditions for much of the week. Fog will also be
possible each morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Per the request of the Patrick County EM, a Flood Watch is in
effect for the following DAMs: Dams #2, #28, #63, and Epperson
Dam on the Ararat River. This is a precautionary measure due to
the excessive rainfall which occurred over the weekend. There
are currently no identified integrity threats to the dams at
this time.

There is the potential for additional heavy rain within the
Ararat River basin this afternoon. Convective Allowing Models
(CAMs) suggest the Blue Ridge will act as a convergence zone for
thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...PM