Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
205 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated. No significant changes to the overall weather
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this
weekend, with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few
strong/severe storms.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the
week, with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this weekend,
with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few
strong/severe storms.

A storm system, anchored by an area of low pressure over eastern
Iowa, is expected to slowly move southeast toward the Ohio Valley
today. Moisture is expected to rapidly deepen across the forecast
area Saturday ahead of this system, with precipitable water values
likely reaching somewhere between 1.5 and 2 inches by Saturday
evening. To put this in somewhat of a climatological perspective,
these values are approximately 2 standard deviations above normal.
As the shortwave trough drives the low closer to our region,
disturbances will move through the moist airmass in place over our
area and lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms. We
could see an isolated to scattered smattering of showers and storms
as early as this afternoon, primarily across western North Carolina.
Convective development will become more likely, though, after
midnight, with a greater coverage anticipated through Sunday night.

By Sunday, we`ll primarily be watching for the development of two
potential weather impacts across our region.

The first thing is heavy rainfall, especially given how moist we
expect the airmass to be across the forecast area. The storm system
will be rather slow-moving, allowing a series of disturbances to
move across the region. The development of off-and-on showers and
storms over similar areas could result in localized ponding/flooding
issues. As such, WPC has our area outlined for a Marginal, or Level
1 Risk, of excessive rainfall for Sunday.

The second thing is the possibility of isolated strong or severe
thunderstorms. The right entrance region of the upper jet should be
moving across our neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, resulting in
increased diffluence aloft. Thermodynamically, mixed-layer CAPE
values around 1000 J/kg (maybe a little more) could seen, especially
from Southside Virginia into the North Carolina Piedmont. With the
increased forcing provided by the surface low and cold front to our
west, we could see some isolated strong or severe storms in this
environment. There are a couple of limiting factors in my mind...
(1) Boundary layer wind speeds might be a tad low to get significant
storm-scale organization. (2) If precipitation is more widespread
than currently forecast, then instability should be lower. Given the
overall risk, SPC has our area outlined for a Marginal Risk (Level
1) for seeing severe storms Sunday with the primary impact being
damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the week,
with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end of the
week.

As an upper-level low settles into the Tennessee Valley, it should
slowly push a cold front through most of our area before it stalls.
The upper low is then expected to "sit and spin" close to the
forecast area through much of the upcoming week. This feature will
continue to send disturbances through a rather moist airmass,
resulting in continued odds of seeing daily showers and
thunderstorms. There`s some indication that convective probabilities
may decrease during the latter half of the week as the upper low
ejects toward the Northeast U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The primary aviation impact through Saturday night will likely be
gusty gradient winds of 15-20 kts as an area of low pressure moves
into the OH Valley. S winds should back toward the SE by 02/0600
UTC, with sustained wind speeds 5-10 kts.

Otherwise, VFR flight categories are expected to continue through at
least 02/0000 UTC. The exception may be some late night/early
morning BR at terminals in SE WV, especially IVOF KLWB. More
widespread flight category reductions will likely begin to spread NE
from W NC after 02/0300 UTC, as moisture increases ahead of an
approaching storm system. And while ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA cannot be
ruled out, the odds of any one TAF site receiving precipitation
remain low. As such, convection was not mentioned in the 01/0600 UTC
TAFs.

OUTLOOK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday-Monday: Restrictions expected as a storm system brings SCTD
to numerous SHRA/TSRA to the region. This will result in periods of
lower CIGs and reduced VSBYs

Tuesday-Wednesday: Unsettled weather and possible restrictions are
expected to continue. There are indications that SHRA/TSRA
probabilities will decrease slightly by mid-late week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...DB