Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

923
FXUS61 KRNK 190532
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
132 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summertime pattern continues into early next week, then a
cool down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Summertime pattern continues into early next
week then a cool down.

Convection has weakened across the area, with the majority of
the stronger storms over central and south NC and farther south.
A few isolated storms linger in southwest VA and in the
Piedmont, but overall thinking the severe threat is coming to an
end for the local forecast area.

The front which is forecast to cross the forecast area from
north to south tonight will introduce a modest surge of cooler
air which will have a stabilizing effect for our weather
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be 10-15 degrees
cooler with METMOS a full 10 degrees cooler than MAVMOS for
daytime highs. Think this is due to what will likely be a day of
persistent cloud cover (the GFS not capturing the full extent
of the cloudiness) behind the front with shallow wedge of high
pressure building into the forecast area from the northeast.
There is still a chance for showers but mainly during the
morning with lack of solar insolation leading to less CAPE in
the afternoon. For now will maintain low chance pops, but we may
very well squeak by with a dry Saturday.

By Sunday the flow turns quickly with warm air advection
advancing across the TN/OH valleys. This will push the front
back to the north as a warm front...only to clash with another
southward moving upper level trough Monday and Tuesday,
temperatures trending cooler again for mid week. A wholesale
uptick in rain chances area expected for both Monday and Tuesday
with widespread QPF of one inch or more possible during this
time frame. 48 hour probabilistic ensemble guidance indicates
80 percent chance for 0.50, 50% chance of 1.00 and 25% chance of
1.50 or more. This is good news. For most, this will be much
needed rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stratus and fog will increase overnight as northeast flow
increases. Expect sub-VFR at all sites by 09z, with LIFR
conditions in the mountains at time. Cannot rule out a shower
near ROA/LYH, but overall dry through the taf period. A gradual
improvement to MVFR to VFR occurs in the 13-17z time frame.
Cigs sink again in the mountains below VFR Saturday evening.
Rain chances today will be limited with best chances south of an
VJI-MWK line.

Forecast confidence is high on sub-VFR this morning, the
moderate on improving to VFR by 17z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower/storm chances increase Sunday into the middle of next
week with Monday and Tuesday looking at the most coverage.
During this time expect periods of sub-VFR conditions and
potential heavy rain, with fog at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS/WP