Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

495
FXUS61 KRNK 050009
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
809 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening aviation update.

Cloud cover is expected through the overnight with dense fog
possible across the area. Clearing is expected by midday
Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the
week. Patchy frost may occur during Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions will return by Monday and last
throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur during Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.

An upper level disturbance and cold front has moved southeast
and out of the area. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Upper Midwest will gradually shift east. Another cold
front and the leading edge of higher pressure will push into the
southern Appalachians overnight tonight into Monday morning,
helping to break down a CAD regime currently in place along the
Blue Ridge. Following this, cloud cover should begin to erode,
but it looks like it may stick around most of the overnight into
tomorrow morning. The clouds push south of the area/erodes
midday Monday into Monday afternoon. Any fog that forms
overnight now looks like it will be much more patchy and less
likely to be dense.

Much drier air arrives along with the high pressure. Low
temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may support some
patchy frost in the mountain valleys where locations such as
the Greenbrier River Valley and Burkes Garden may see lows in
30s. The models maintain high pressure over the region for the
remainder of the week. As the airmass modifies, temperatures
should moderate for the second half of the week.

Our next opportunity for rain may occur next weekend into early
next week (as in 7-8 days from now). NHC is monitoring a broad
area of low pressure in the Gulf, and this feature may develop
into a cyclone over the next week. It is possible the system
moves ashore and eventually brings some moisture to our area.
That is a lot of ifs, so for now have tempered high NBM PoPs
with some drier probabilistic guidance to keep rain chances
below 50%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cigs have risen this evening, with most terminals in MVFR, with
VFR cigs beginning to filter in. Cloud cover is expected to
continue through the overnight, though cigs slowly rise up by
tomorrow morning to VFR levels area-wide after 13z. Dense fog
is possible at all terminals, with the most confidence being at
LWB due to some partial clearing at times overnight. DAN/LYH
also are expected to see patchy dense fog, due to light winds
and lowering of cigs. Other terminals will likely see some
reduction in VSBY between 2-4 miles between 05-13z.

For Monday, skies clear by midday, with VFR at all terminals
through the end of the TAF period. Winds will continue from the
north to northwest around 5-10 knots, with gusts up to 15 knots
possible in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of this week as high
pressure takes control. The only exception that could interrupt
the good flying weather will be patchy overnight into early
morning river valley fog. Winds will remain generally light
throughout this time period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...JCB/PW/SH