Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

117
FXUS61 KRNK 171842
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Storm threat remains relatively low, but DCAPE does support
gusty showers this afternoon and evening. Better opportunity
scattered showers and storms Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms. Summertime
pattern continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms.
Summertime pattern continues.

The upper ridge of high pressure over the TN valley is forecast
to weaken and retrograde farther west and become centered over
the Ark-La-Tex by the weekend. This will allow a front over the
Great Lakes to sag south over the Mid-Atlantic with increasing
moisture leading to a daily chance for showers and a few storms
persisting through next week. Overall, severe threat remains low
given lack of shear to support organized deep convection.

Shower/Storm coverage through this evening should be rather
limited, with best coverage over higher terrain and into Blue
Ridge foothills where daytime heating and low level convergence
supports cloud build-ups and showers. MLCAPE ranges from
500-1000 j/kg...modest at best, but DCAPE is close to 1000 which
suggests healthy downdrafts with gusts from even the weaker
showers potentially producing some gusts up to 25 mph. Stronger
cells may be capable of 30-40 mph gusts. Loss of daytime heating
should result in quick demise of activity after sunset.

Friday will be a bit more moist with higher PWATs...the shower
coverage more prolific than today yet lacking much in the way
of organization due to weak shear. However, can`t rule out a
strong pulse storm or two per summerlike temperatures leading to
steep low level lapse rates.

The weekend looks mostly cloudy with front stalled over the
area. We may end up on the north side of the front Saturday with
shallow northeast wind and clouds muting temperatures before
trending warmer Sunday and Monday as front waffles back to the
north. Regardless of its position, looking at scattered showers
this weekend with opportunity for wetting precipitation
persisting through the middle of next week as the pattern
remains stuck.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and storms through this evening with tempo
sub-VFR. High DCAPE supports healthy downdrafts with gusty
winds vcnty of all shower activity.

Shower activity is expected to weaken and dissipate after sunset
with return of mainly VFR conditions. Moisture from todays
showers and valley inversions likely to lead to some patchy fog
overnight with period of dense fog possible in the mountain
valleys between 06z/2AM and 14z/10AM Friday.

Front approaching from the north will bring another opportunity
for unsettled weather Friday with cloud-buildups mid-day leading
to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly diurnal shower/storm chances through Tuesday especially
over the mountains. Front is expected to stall over the area
this weekend which may lead to low cigs both Saturday and
Sunday in addition to valley fog...especially at night and
during the morning both Saturday and Sunday.

, but activity is not expected to be organized and mainly
coinciding with the heating of the day. Daily morning fog in
favored valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM