Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS61 KRNK 072344
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
644 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning have been cancelled.
Winds will continue to decrease through the overnight hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winds will diminish through this evening.

2) Very cold wind chills into Sunday morning.

3) Weak clipper could bring a light dusting of snow to portions
of the mountains Sunday morning.

4) Moderating temperatures through midweek, with rain chances
Wednesday.

5) Late week into the weekend potential for wintry weather but
not as cold, but model differences keep confidence low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Winds diminish through this evening.

Will maintain wind headlines per coordination with neighbors,
though mesoscale trends showing strongest low level jet exiting
and pressure rises weakening. Winds will continue to weaken
overnight.


Key Message 2: Very cold wind chills through Sunday morning.

Winds will stay up enough to bring wind chills to below zero
Sunday morning over the mountains, coldest at the higher ridges
of Greenbrier/Bath.



Key Message 3: Light snow possible with clipper.

Clipper but weaker shortwave traverse the area Sunday.
Ensembles/models bring a shot of potentially an inch or less of
snow to the mountains of far southern WV into southwest VA,
maybe even a dusting into the NC foothills/piedmont. With
temperatures well below freezing, roads will likely get some
snow cover. Have flurries for most with this airmass, tapering
off in the afternoon.

Key Message 4: Warming trends midweek. Rain chances return
Wednesday.

Going to see some thawing as deep trough pushes east and
shortwave ridging builds in though flow aloft is split and more
zonal by Wednesday, with a front tracking across with mainly
rain chances later Wednesday. Could see enough cold air for snow
on the backside Wed night.


Key Message 5: Low confidence on pattern end of the week but
potential for wintry weather exists.

The previous front drops south by Thursday. Models tend to
struggle with split flow regimes and where next
overrunning/shortwave pushes across bring precipitation to the
area.

Blend of models keeps chance of precip Thu-Fri-Sat but think
there will be a period where its dry, and kept pops in the
chance range. With high pressure to the north but late in the
week, could have potential for wintry mix.

After the brief warmup, temps return to normal for mid February,
so not seeing any arctic blasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the period, except a potential for MVFR Sunday
morning at BLF as clipper arrives. Most sites along and west of
the Blue Ridge will see flurries/snow showers, with better
chance of lower vsby if that, southwest of a line from BLF-HLX.
Snow should come to an end before by sunset on Sunday.

Strong northwest winds will begin to abate this evening, then
shift more west-southwest later tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Next storm system will be warmer with rain potential and sub-
VFR Wednesday, followed by potential rain/snow into Thursday and
sub-VFR but low confidence on this.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ007-009>019-
     022>024-032>035.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for VAZ020.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ042>044.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/WP