Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS61 KRNK 061824
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
124 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded the Wind Advisory to the rest of the VA/NC Piedmont for
tonight-Saturday.

Expanded the Cold Weather Advisory into the VA foothills.

Slight decrease in snow amounts but no changes to the winter
weather headlines.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating snow into Saturday morning.

2) Strong northwest winds tonight into Saturday areawide.

3) Very cold wind chills Friday night into Sunday morning.

4) Warming trend next week with some small chances of
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Accumulating snow into Saturday morning.


Have the first wave/warm advection snows already moving into the
area early this afternoon, putting down a quick dusting to near
an inch. There may be a reprieve mid-late afternoon, then
arctic front moves across and the northwest flow machine kicks
in after 5-6pm. Overall, snow amounts will range to an inch or
less east of the mountains, with several inches across our
western slopes from WV into the NC High Country. 5+ inches
expected in western Greenbrier, as well as the higher peaks
further south like Burkes Garden/Flat Top/Mt Rogers and Beech
Mountain, while the valleys will see mainly 2-4 inches.
Favorable snow squall parameters reach our WV counties by
03z/10pm, so something to watch if folks are out traveling late
this evening. Could see snow rates of 1-2"/hr. Cannot rule out
some heavier snow bands making it as far east as the I-81
corridor between Lexington and Marion.


Key Message 2: Strong northwest winds tonight into Saturday
areawide.

Deterministic models/ensembles and probabilistic guidance still
advertise strong wind gusts arriving this evening post arctic
front with another surge arriving around dawn Saturday. Per
pattern recognition and model signals, we expanded the wind
advisory to include the rest of the VA/NC Piedmont.

The stronger winds will gust to 45 to 60 mph, highest along the
Blue Ridge and adjacent gaps that face northwest-southeast.

Winds should become less robust by Saturday evening.


Key Message 3: Very cold wind chills tonight into Sunday.


Arctic air, along with the winds will drop wind chills well
below zero in the higher ridges and around zero to 10 below
east. Expanded the cold weather advisory into the VA foothills
as most of those counties from Patrick to Amherst will likely
have wind chills at times from zero to 8 below. Kept the cold
weather advisory going into Sunday morning, but by then winds
should be weaker, though overnight lows may be around 5 degrees
colder than Friday night.

Key Message 4: Temperatures trend warmer through the
first half of the week. Precipitation chances increase during the
midweek, with potential for a wintry mix late in the week.

A large 500mb ridge over the central US will expand eastward for the
beginning of the work week as the trough pulls out of the eastern
half of the country. As the trough pulls away, so does the Arctic
air. Temperatures will warm to the upper 40s to low 50s west of the
Blue Ridge, to upper 50s to low 60s in the Piedmont, thanks to
southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching system.
Temperatures like these have not been seen since the warm spell of
early to mid January. Most of the remaining snow and ice should melt
fairly quickly under these warm couple of days, but the large piles
of snow/ice will likely take longer to melt.

An upper low develops over the Baja Peninsula and evolves into an
open wave as it tracks into the south central US early next week.
This southern stream system will be the next driver of precipitation
to the local forecast area. At this time, most of the upper level
energy looks to stay mostly to the south of the area, while the
surface warm front lifts north into the Mid Atlantic. With
temperatures above freezing, confidence is high that this precip
will fall as rain through Wednesday. However, by Thursday, an upper
trough dips south into the area from southeastern Canada, bringing
colder air, and as the colder air moves in, will see a transition of
the lingering rain into snow in the west, and a rain/snow mix in the
east for Thursday/Friday. The cold temperatures look to last into
the Valentines Day weekend, but are only about 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal norms, as compared to the 15 to 25 degrees below normal
temperatures this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Have cigs below VFR for most by 19z, as snow moves in faster
than previously thought. Should see off and on snow this
afternoon with vsbys lower in the mountains down to IFR at
times, with MVFR east, potentially IFR but briefly.

Precip should end after 0z east of the mountains but upslope
snow showers will persist into Sat morning at BLF/LWB.

Cigs will improve east of the mountains during this time but
northwest winds are going to lead to poor flying with severe
turbulence as gusts to 50kts possible just above the surface,
and gusting at the surface 34 to 50kts at times areawide.
Strongest winds as usual will be from ROA-BCB-HLX-GEV-TNB
corridor.

Look for scattering out of clouds in the mountains between
12-18z Saturday.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions look to return to all terminals for Sunday
through Tuesday. Winds will stay up into Saturday afternoon,
weakening Saturday night.

Next system will be warmer with rain potential and sub-VFR
Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ007-
     009>011-015-018>020.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for VAZ015>020-022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for VAZ007-009>019-022>024-032>035.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     VAZ007-009>014-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ020.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NCZ001-002-018.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for WVZ508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for WVZ042>044.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ042>044-507.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     WVZ507-508.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP