Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS61 KRNK 202355
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
755 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening aviation update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures should plummet below freezing across the entire
region tonight.

2. Warmer air returns for the remainder of this week with
mainly dry conditions as the next best chance for widespread
rainfall may not come until this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures should plummet below freezing across
the entire region tonight.

The ongoing drought conditions has caused the models to poorly
handle the dry air mass in place and not account for wider
diurnal ranges in temperatures. With high pressure crossing the
Appalachian Mountains later tonight, mainly clear skies and
light winds should allow good boundary layer decoupling to
occur. As a result, temperatures were pushed downward for
tonight, which will warrant temperatures below freezing across
the entire region. Consequently, the Freeze Warning was expanded
so that the entire RNK coverage area is accounted for the risk
of freezing temperatures that could kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation. Lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected
along and west of the Blue Ridge and also across the Virginia
Piedmont, while lows near 30 should occur in the North Carolina
Piedmont.

Key Message 2: Warmer air returns for the remainder of this week
with mainly dry conditions as the next best chance for
widespread rainfall may not come until this weekend.

After high pressure heads offshore on Tuesday, an upper level
ridge will develop over the Appalachian Mountains for the
latter half of this week. This synoptic pattern yields a warming
trend with temperatures soaring back into the 70s and 80s for
Wednesday through Saturday. A weak low pressure system may
bring a chance of showers along and north of Route 460 with
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Interstate 64
corridor on Wednesday afternoon. However, the lingering dry air
will not offer much opportunity for the moisture to spread
southward. Thus, the rest of this week will likely stay dry for
many locations, which will only prolong the drought. The next
best chance for any widespread rainfall may not come until this
weekend when a low pressure system approaches from the Plains.
The models indicate some possibility for ongoing rain chances
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies and VFR flight conditions are across all terminals
this evening after a dry cold front has now pushed south of the
area. Winds will remain gusty around 15-25 knots for the next
couple of hours but will quickly reduce overnight to near calm
as high pressure centers overhead. Skies will remain clear,
causing temperatures to fall below freezing area-wide. For
Tuesday, winds shift back to the south as the front fizzles,
but remain much lighter than today, with gusts staying between
10-15 knots. No rain is expected, though some high clouds will
move in tomorrow afternoon. VFR will continue through the end of
the TAF period.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Tuesday night will be quiet, though some LLWS may impact
terminals west of the Blue Ridge. Beyond that, VFR conditions
are expected to continue through the rest of the week, outside
of a small chance of isolated showers/storms Wednesday afternoon
at all terminals but DAN, as a weak front brushes by to our
north. The best chance of impacts will be at LWB, with lowering
cigs and VSBY possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions.
Outside of this, quiet conditions persist until the next system
arrives late Friday into the weekend with likely sub-VFR cigs
and more widespread rainfall expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fire danger statement remains in effect for the rest of this
afternoon across northwest North Carolina and southwest
Virginia. Relative humidity values will fall towards 15 to 25
percent for most of the region. Northwest winds will gust
towards 15 to 25 mph with the potential for 30 mph gusts along
the ridgetops.

The rest of this week stays mainly dry with temperatures rising
above normal. The ongoing drought will only increase the risk
of wildfire potential. Relative humidity values could fall
below 30 percent each afternoon for most locations through
Friday. Winds should diminish somewhat on Tuesday, but they will
increase from the west by Wednesday with possible gusts of 15
to 25 mph before turning lighter by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
 VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday
for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday
for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PW