Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS61 KRNK 100659
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
259 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast, storm chances remain through
the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Thunderstorms today and Saturday could bring
gusty/damaging winds but marginal risk of that. Heavy downpours
could also lead to localized flooding.

Key Message 2: Thunderstorms chances dwindle early next week as
high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Strong storms with winds/localized flooding
possible today and Saturday.

A mid-level shortwave will move into the southern and central
Appalachians today. As surface temperatures warm, moderate
instability will develop over much of the region by afternoon.
Orographic lift and lift from this shortwave will support
isolated to scattered convective development. Showers will move
into the mountains this morning, and should limit instability
early on but some clearing will allow for more storms to form
in the afternoon moving eastward into the Piedmont. The
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support
isolated severe gusts with the stronger multicells.

Also, with PWATs running 1.5 to 2.0 inches, any training of
storms or slow movers could bring localized flooding, especially
in steep terrain and urban areas.

With frontal convergence sinking south into the area Friday
night, thinking is showers/storms may linger all night in a
scattered fashion, though stabilizing airmass should limit
thunder past midnight.

During the day Saturday, instability increases again, but cloud
cover along the front may keep it squelched somewhat. Still,
despite weak shear, a moderately unstable environment coupled
with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should
support strong to potentially damaging downbursts, and localized
flooding.

The front still remains in the area into Sunday but once the
main positive trough axis shifts into TN, the front makes its
way into NC by Sunday evening. Still, convergence along the
front, and upper support will provide another day for scattered
to numerous showers and storms.

Key Message 2: Drier next week.

The front exits south next week with high pressure building in
from the north. A 5h heat dome builds across the
northern/central plains and will extending east into the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians by Tuesday. The ridge splits off
over us midweek, then a deeper trough digs into the northeast by
the end of the week. Expect mainly dry weather next week with
temperatures heating up again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tranquil weather this morning with VFR for numerous terminals.
Some fog already forming in the mountain valleys and expect
places like LWB/BCB could drop to IFR or lower. Clouds will roll
in from the west with showers toward 12z and should lift the
fog.

Will have VCSH to VCTS through the late morning into the
afternoon for most terminals with scattered showers/storms
expected, and make amendments as necessary based on radar
trends. A few storms will bring heavy rain and some gusty winds.

General winds will be southwest to west 5-10kts, a few gusts to
20kts this afternoon.

Should be mainly VFR outside any storms, then some cigs lower in
the mountains to MVFR late in this taf period/Friday evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the
upcoming weekend with greatest coverage during the afternoon and
evening. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions
are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is
also likely during the overnight periods, especially where
significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog
will burn off quickly after 13Z daily.

Drier conditions are expected for early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PM/RCS/WP