Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KRNK 220724
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
324 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.

Monday still looks to have increasing potential for fire
weather concerns, due to gusty post- frontal winds, RH values
dropping to 15 to 25%, and warm temperatures, specifically for
the Piedmont of VA and NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal today,
possibly breaking records.

2) The next chances of showers should arrive by tonight into
Monday and also later in the week. Increased fire potential
Monday afternoon for the Piedmont.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above
normal today, possibly breaking records.

Strong ridging centered near FL will continue to pump strong
warm air advection towards the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
states through early Monday morning. Over the next 18 hours, we
will see a relative lull in the amount of positive vorticity
advection aloft, and this will help to keep skies mostly sunny
today. By tonight, a baroclinic zone shifts south from OH and
PA, bringing widespread cloud cover along with a chance for
mountain rain showers.

Compressional warming and rising heights ahead of the front
along with the aforementioned WAA will support near-record
breaking warmth from TX east through VA Beach. Locally, Roanoke
looks most likely to break their high temperatures record today,
with a forecast of 85. Most other sites are a few degrees shy;
please see more record data below. I did lower temperatures a
bit as ensemble members favored slightly lower readings than
what was forecast yesterday.

Temperatures tumble tonight in the mountains, dropping readings
several degrees below normal there. For the Piedmont, residual
warmth remains due to most of the CAA being blocked by the
terrain, at least initially. We`ll see temperatures near or
below freezing once again for the mountains Monday and Tuesday
morning, so bring in any house plants that were enjoying the
recent warmth. The Piedmont will also drop into the 30s but
should stay above 35F for most locations.

The temperature trend for mid week through the weekend will be a
near repeat to that outlined above, with gradual warming mid
week before being driven back into the 50s and 60s for highs and
towards freezing or below for lows for the weekend.


Station Record Hi Max Forecast MaxT
Roanoke 84 in 1938          85
Lynchburg 90 in 1907          84
Danville    88 in 1968          87
Bluefield   81 in 2012          76
Blacksburg  85 in 1907          87


KEY MESSAGE 2...The next chances of showers should arrive by
tonight into Monday and also later in the week.

A cold front should approach from the northwest tonight in
association with a shortwave trough embedded amidst a broad
upper level trough across the eastern United States. Showers
and thunderstorms should stay mainly to the north across the
Ohio River Valley and into Pennsylvania, but some of this
convection will drop southward towards the Interstate 64
corridor after sunset. If these storms arrive faster than
anticipated, there is a marginal risk of severe weather due to
damaging winds. However, confidence is low on this severe threat
as the storms will be losing instability during the overnight
hours. Scattered showers should linger into Monday morning and
head eastward towards the coast by Monday evening.

As the aforementioned cold front departs on Monday, a strong
northwest wind will arrive with gusts up to 40 mph along the
higher elevations. Fire weather concerns could arise in the
Piedmont during Monday afternoon if the downsloping wind
coincides with dry fuels that do not receive much rainfall from
the earlier showers. The wind should decrease on Monday night as
high pressure returns and wedges against the Blue Ridge by
Tuesday. Wednesday remains dry as high pressure moves off the
East Coast, but a low pressure system should organize across the
northern Plains and push a warm front across the Appalachian
Mountains by Thursday to bring the next chance of showers. The
associated cold front from this system may not enter until late
Friday into early Saturday to bring more showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight through 23/06Z,
with passing cirrus today giving way to overcast mid clouds
this afternoon. Increasing and lower sub-VFR clouds will arrive
from the north for the mountains after 23/06Z, as a front sags
into the area. Scattered -SHRA and perhaps -TSRA are expected
for BLF and LWB mainly before 12Z, possibly extending south
towards BCB later in the morning.

Light and variable winds this morning become westerly and
slightly gusty by this afternoon. Winds turn NW with the
frontal passage after midnight, with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt
range Monday, especially for the higher ridges.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The precipitation dries up as it crosses the mountains, so
expecting VFR ceilings through the duration of this event east
of the Blue Ridge. LIFR to IFR ceilings continue to affect the
mountain terminals including ROA through Monday morning before
VFR prevails through Wednesday evening, as models have pushed
back the arrival of yet another front with rain and sub-VFR
conditions, affecting mainly the mountains Thursday. Yet another
cold front with sub-VFR conditions is possible Friday into
Saturday, but impacts and timing remain fuzzy.

Expect gusty NW winds through Monday behind the front, with
gusts between 20-30 kts throughout the area. On Tuesday light
SE winds are forecast, becoming SW by Wednesday. Wind gusts pick
up on Thursday ahead of a front, and winds veer more to the
west and then NW through Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


...Increasing fire potential Monday for the Piedmont of Virginia
and North Carolina...

As a cold front exits the region this evening, gusty northwest
winds will arrive. In general, gusts up to 35 mph are possible
for tonight and Monday along the higher elevations. Fire
weather concerns may arise by Monday afternoon if the
downsloping wind coincides with dry fuels that do not receive
precipitation with the front tonight into Monday morning. The
wind should decrease by Monday night as high pressure returns.
We are currently outlooked by SPC for fire danger on Monday with
a 40% critical probability outline over the Piedmont of
Virginia and North Carolina.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...SH