Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS61 KRNK 271143
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
643 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Roller coaster weather pattern continues. Warming temperatures
today will make for a pleasant afternoon, readings well above
normal. A series of fronts will cross the area the next two
days. A weak front tonight will bring a wind shift to the
northeast with a slight cool down, followed by a much stronger
front Monday that will bring sharply colder temperatures to the
area along with strong northwest winds. This will be a reality
check, so get ready for winters return...favoring temperatures
below normal as we close out the year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Warming temperatures today leading to a pleasant afternoon by
December standards. Highs 10-15 degrees above normal.

Shallow wedge of cool air still hanging on in the eastern CWA
this morning, temperatures in the U30s to L40s for ROA and LYH
compared to readings in the mid 50s at LWB/BLF/TNB and lower 60s
in the upper TN valley. This warm air is expected to spill over
the mountains this morning and mix down into the ROA valley and
foothills, so expecting a quick warmup once mixing begins later
this morning.

A shallow backdoor front is expected to come into the CWA from
the Northeast this afternoon. Other than a wind shift, its
cooling effects should be balanced by solar insolation up until
the sun goes down. Then look for readings to trail off quickly
tonight before clouds roll back into the area.

In general looking at temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal
in the near term.

Winds today will be gusty this morning, but then subside this
afternoon and light (less than 5 mph) tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Deep low pressure and an associated strong cold front will bring
strong to damaging wind gusts for Monday and Monday night.

2) Temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night will range from 10 to 18
degrees below normal for late December.

Starting Sunday off with high pressure centered over central
Virginia, with winds shifting from northeasterly to southeasterly as
the high departs to the east. The windflow off the Atlantic,
combined with low clouds established through the day, will limit
heating significantly compared to Sunday, with afternoon highs
holding in the low 50s.

Winds will shift from the south-southwest Sunday night as deep low
pressure develops over the western Great Lakes, and will increase in
speed as an associated cold front approaches. Latest weather data
indicates signals of localized 45+ mph gusts along the higher ridges
of Smyth, Tazewell and Mercer Counties developing toward dawn
Monday. Frontal passage late Monday morning will bring a west-
northwesterly wind shift, allowing rain showers to change over to
upslope snow showers during the evening as colder air arrives across
the higher ridges from southeast West Virginia through the High
Country of North Carolina. With only minimal snowfall expected going
into Monday night, attention is focused on the wind speeds, with
increasing confidence in the potential for 60+ mph gusts along the
Blue Ridge and other higher peaks, while 40 mph to locally 55 mph
gusts are forecasted elsewhere across the mountains and through the
foothills of the Blue Ridge. The greatest potential for these strong
to damaging gusts appears to be between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM
Tuesday, with speeds gradually decreasing thereafter. Wind chills on
Monday night will range from near zero across the mountains, with
locally colder spots along the ridges, to the positive teens across
the Piedmont.

Any lingering snow showers will end Tuesday morning as high pressure
arrives, with skies becoming mostly sunny. However, the arrival of
this cold airmass will bring a return of colder-than-normal
temperatures, which will be anywhere from 10 to 18 degrees below
normal for late December.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) A fast-moving cold front will arrive on Thursday, bringing
upslope snow showers.

2) Temperatures will remain below normal through the second half of
the workweek.

Weak high pressure will maintain control of the weather pattern for
Wednesday, making for a modest warmup over Tuesday`s temperatures
under a mixture of clouds and sunshine, with dry conditions
expected.

The next chance for precipitation arrives on Thursday, impacting
mainly the ridges from southeast West Virginia through the High
Country of North Carolina in the form of upslope snow showers, as a
cold front pushes rapidly across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Again,
moisture appears limited with this front, and see signals in the
weather data that there will be an initial surge of snow shower
activity during the afternoon that tapers off Thursday night. Not a
lot of confidence in snowfall totals at this time, however the
strongest signals for 3+ inch accumulations appears to be confined
to western Greenbrier County.

The arrival of a surge of polar air will keep temperatures well
below normal for Friday under dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EST Saturday...

ROA/LYH/DAN are expected to remain mostly clear today promoting
VFR. Cloud layer over the mountains is generally 1500-2500 ft
AGL so MVFR expected to linger there. Gusty westerly winds this
morning is promoting some LLWS vcnty of the mtn ridges. This
winds are expected to mix to the surface after sunrise and
remain gusty through mid-day be fore diminishing this afternoon.

A weak backdoor front will bring a wind shift to the area this
afternoon with winds becoming northeast at LYH/DAN/ROA. Winds
overall are expected to diminish to less than 6 kts tonight.
Clouds will also over spread the region tonight...bases
1000-3000ft AGL.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

MVFR cloud deck may linger through Sunday. Not confident
conditions will become VFR.

A cold front to bring rain/snow showers to the area, especially
the mountains, Monday into Tuesday morning. Above average
confidence for area of sub-VFR cigs/vsbys with the
precipitation, and high confidence for frontal wind shear and
post frontal wind turbulence...the turbulence hazard persisting
for much of the week.

Windy conditions are likely behind the cold front with models
indicating 50-60kt winds just above the surface for Monday and
Monday night...and 40-50kts Tuesday. This will most likely lead
to an extended period of moderate to severe low level turbulence
within the vncty of the mountains...Monday through Tuesday.

High Pressure to pass south of the area Wednesday, clockwise
flow around the high still promoting brisk west winds, but not
nearly as strong as Monday and Tuesday. Latest guidance suggests
30-40kts just above ground level.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM