Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

391
FXUS61 KRNK 262331
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
631 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Cold Warning for all counties west of the Blue Ridge and
Cold Weather Advisory in the east remain in effect tonight
through tomorrow morning. Wind chills may dip as low as 20
below across the highest elevations.

Will continue to utilize Special Weather Statements for our
western counties where upslope snow is ongoing. This activity
looks to wind down after midnight tonight.

In general, cold weather with below normal temperatures will
persist the remainder of week, but the bigger question is, will
there be another weekend winter storm?

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mountain snow showers diminishing this evening.

2) Dangerously cold weather tonight through Tuesday morning.

3) More mountain snow showers Tuesday night and again Wednesday
night with below normal temperatures.

4) Will there be another weekend winter storm? And will the
cold persist into February?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mountain snow showers diminishing this evening.

Reports of accumulating new snow along the western slopes of
the Appalachians have been common today with 1.5-2.0" in
Bluefield, WV, and upwards of 6" at Beech Mtn Ski Resort at 5500
feet elevation where mountain top is within the cloud base.
Looking at webcams, the vsby still under 1SM for our western
counties with webcams above 4000 feet within the cloud base.
This suggests vsbys at these higher elevations are 1/2SM or less
with moderate accumulating snow. Will be hard to tell what the
true accumulation is per wind blowing 15 to 25 mph, but anything
that does fall will be at a 20:1 ratio per the bitter cold
airmass...and blowing around at that. As such have used SPS as
vehicle to best cover what is going on...not enough coverage at
the lower elevations to issue wholesale county based headlines.

In general, think snow will continue at these higher elevations
as long as there is cloud cover...the entire cloud experiencing
dendritic growth due to cloud temps of -12 deg C or colder.
Winds are forecast to turn more westerly this evening, and with
dry air advection, clouds should dissipate. The 12Z HREF
maintains cloud cover along the western slopes until sunset,
then thins it out by midnight before going completely clear...so
would think at the very least that flurries to linger at these
higher elevations until then.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold weather tonight through
Tuesday morning.

Cold air advection from arctic air will be the overall theme for
tonight with actual air temperatures dipping into the single
digits areawide. Coldest readings will be across the mountains
were overnight lows will range from zero to 5 below zero. Add
in the wind, which will be gusting 15 to 25 mph, and it will
make for dangerous conditions with wind chills of 10 to 20 below
zero for all areas west of the Blue Ridge and 5 to 10 below zero
for areas east of the Blue Ridge. In addition to the extreme
cold, still advising folks to watch out for the ice. The bitter
cold is not allowing the ice and snow to melt, so this hazard
will also be with us for the next few days.

For headlines, have issued Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold
Weather Advisories for a large portion of the region, in effect
from 6PM this evening through Noon Tuesday. Temperatures will
be slow to warm on Tuesday, but could rise just above freezing
for areas east of the mountains for a few hours in the
afternoon. In general though, the higher elevations will remain
solidly below freezing through the day.


KEY MESSAGE 3...More mountain snow showers Tuesday night and again
Wednesday night with below normal temperatures.

Several reinforcing shots of cold air are expected through the
week with the passage of additional short wave troughs within
the northern stream. These troughs will be primarily dry east of
the mountains, but do think enough moisture will be available
Tuesday night and again Wednesday night for a dusting to an inch
of snow across the mountains, especially for areas along and
just west of the Appalachian Divide. This means western
Greenbrier down through areas west of I-77 and into the
mountains of NW NC may will have several more opportunities for
light orographically enhanced accumulations of snow this week.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Will there be another weekend winter storm?
And will the cold persist into February?

It would appear the answer to these questions are yes and yes.
There is a signal in the guidance for another winter storm
within the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday with
wintry impacts to the Eastern Seaboard into Sunday. This system
would evolve from the amplification of the northern stream
longwave trough as opposed to a southern stream system (like
this past weekend) so the evolution would be totally different.
That said, will be monitoring the models very closely for future
trends and potential for inland impacts. For the time being,
and as many of you learned from the last system, don`t put too
much credence in detailed model output 3-5 days in advance and
certainly don`t latch onto the first thing you see on social
media with respect to snow amounts. Models at this time range
are of poor resolution and will fat finger the forecast in terms
of QPF. P-type is also harder to resolve at this time
frame...pattern recognition providing a better prognosticator.
If anything can be said, it appears the storm would evolve along
the coast which would put us on the cold side of the system, so
if it were to cast moisture inland it would most likely be snow
with respect to pattern recognition.

That said, we are forecast to be on the cold side of the system.
The upper level trough is in a deepening phase so it should
pull in some very cold air from the northwest...validating the
second part of the question of "yes" the cold will persist into
February. The model guidance suggests it will be just as frigid
next weekend so we may quite possibly be revisiting the Cold
Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings...with single digit
temperatures and subzero wind chills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Terminals east of the Blue Ridge have cleared this evening,
and will remain VFR through the TAF period. Upslope snow showers
and low clouds have continued for KBLF, KBCB, and KLWB, leading
to MVFR to IFR ceilings, and reducing visibilities to less than
a mile at times. These snow showers will continue for a few
more hours, ending by 06Z or so. Low stratus over the western
mountains return Tuesday afternoon, after 18Z, with another
round of upslope snow showers for the mountain terminals
possible later Tuesday.

Gusty west to northwest winds will start to decrease through the
overnight period, but become gusty once again Tuesday afternoon,
again in the 20 to 25 knot range.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A couple weak systems may bring light snow/stratus to the mountains
most days this week.  This may bring MVFR CIGs and VSBYs at times
to BLF and LWB, possibly BCB. Winds remain elevated into
Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST Tuesday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for VAZ032>035-
     043>047-058-059.
NC...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...AS/EB