Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXUS61 KRNK 201738
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
138 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warning has been extended for the entire region tonight.
Adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints were made to account
for the dry air mass in place.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures should plummet below freezing across the entire
region tonight.

2. Warmer air returns for the remainder of this week with
mainly dry conditions as the next best chance for widespread
rainfall may not come until this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures should plummet below freezing across
the entire region tonight.

The ongoing drought conditions has caused the models to poorly
handle the dry air mass in place and not account for wider
diurnal ranges in temperatures. With high pressure crossing the
Appalachian Mountains later today into tonight, mainly clear
skies and light winds should allow good boundary layer
decoupling to occur. As a result, temperatures were pushed
downward for tonight, which will warrant temperatures below
freezing across the entire region. Consequently, the Freeze
Warning was expanded so that the entire RNK coverage area is
accounted for the risk of freezing temperatures that could kill
crops and other sensitive vegetation. Lows in the mid to upper
20s are expected along and west of the Blue Ridge and also across
the Virginia Piedmont, while lows near 30 should occur in the
North Carolina Piedmont.

Key Message 2: Warmer air returns for the remainder of this week
with mainly dry conditions as the next best chance for
widespread rainfall may not come until this weekend.

After high pressure heads offshore on Tuesday, an upper level
ridge will develop over the Appalachian Mountains for the
latter half of this week. This synoptic pattern yields a warming
trend with temperatures soaring back into the 70s and 80s for
Wednesday through Saturday. A weak low pressure system may
bring a chance of showers along and north of Route 460 with
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Interstate 64
corridor on Wednesday afternoon. However, the lingering dry air
will not offer much opportunity for the moisture to spread
southward. Thus, the rest of this week will likely stay dry for
many locations, which will only prolong the drought. The next
best chance for any widespread rainfall may not come until this
weekend when a low pressure system approaches from the Plains.
The models indicate some possibility for ongoing rain chances
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions continue across all terminals, despite a dry
cold front moving south through the area, which has brought low
clouds to the area. These clouds will linger for the next several
hours before clearing out as the front pushes south by later this
afternoon. Skies will then remain clear through the end of the TAF
period tomorrow.

Gusty westerly winds currently around 20-25 knots will slowly shift
to the northwest this afternoon, before reducing after sunset. Winds
become light and variable overnight, though general direction shifts
to the north. By mid-morning tomorrow, winds shift to the south as
the front fizzles, but remain light, generally around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of
the week, outside of a small chance of isolated showers/storms
Wednesday afternoon at all terminals but DAN, as a front brushes by
to our north. The best chance of impacts will be at LWB, with
showers possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Outside of this,
quiet conditions persist until the next system arrives late Friday
into the weekend with likely sub-VFR cigs and more widespread
rainfall expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fire danger statement remains in effect for the rest of this
afternoon across northwest North Carolina and southwest
Virginia. Relative humidity values will fall towards 15 to 25
percent for most of the region. Northwest winds will gust
towards 15 to 25 mph with the potential for 30 mph gusts along
the ridgetops.

The rest of this week stays mainly dry with temperatures rising
above normal. The ongoing drought will only increase the risk
of wildfire potential. Relative humidity values could fall
below 30 percent each afternoon for most locations through
Friday. Winds should diminish somewhat on Tuesday, but they will
increase from the west by Wednesday with possible gusts of 15
to 25 mph before turning lighter by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PW