Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXUS61 KRNK 171814
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
214 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...


Cold front later this week may bring daily precipitation chances
starting Wednesday, and an end to the warming trend.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near-Record heat possible for the early part of the week as
summer arrives. Heat wave lasts through Wednesday, with late week
relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of
rain for the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near-Record heat possible for the early part of the week as
summer arrives. Heat wave lasts through Wednesday, with late week
relief.

A Bermuda High in the western Atlantic will continue to keep warm,
southerly flow across the Eastern CONUS for the first half of the
week. An upper-level ridge has also developed, which will limit
convection and cause temperatures to soar. Temperatures are
noticeably warmer today, with widespread 80s along/east of the Blue
Ridge already present at lunchtime. Temperatures will continue to
rise through late afternoon, with highs in the 80s for the
mountains, and low 90s in the Piedmont. Temperatures were lowered
slightly due to the lingering cloud cover earlier this morning. This
lowering will likely keep temperatures from reaching record highs
today, though not by much. Monday and Tuesday look to have better
chances of setting record highs, as the upper ridge builds, slightly
pushing highs into the mid/upper 80s in the mountains, and mid 90s
for the Piedmont. Despite the heat, it will remain dry, due to the
upper ridge. While a stray storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon
in the southern Blue Ridge, Monday looks to remain dry, with Tuesday
also looking similar.

The next few days will be the first heat wave of the year, so be
sure to drink plenty of water, limit outdoor activities, and wear
light or loose fitting clothing to help reduce the risk of heat
illness. The Piedmont could see highs of 90 degrees or higher for
four straight days. The last time this occurred was in July of last
year. With the recent cool weather over the past week or so, the
intense heat may catch you off-guard. Temperatures then lower behind
a strong cold front, with 60s/70s for highs on Thursday/Friday.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of
rain for the region.

While much of the early portion of the work week will be dry and
hot, a frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough
will approach the region on Wednesday. With increasing moisture
ahead of this front forecast, instability will likely be high
enough to produce diurnal thunderstorm activity each day
starting Wednesday. While much of the deep layer shear will
progress east with the aforementioned upper level trough,
enough shear on the order of 20-30 knots looks to be present on
Wednesday when the front initially approaches the region. This
will lead to the potential for some organized multicellular
thunderstorm activity and likely a marginal severe weather
threat by Wednesday. While the main forcing associated with the
upper level trough looks to become dissociated from the frontal
boundary as it progresses east through the Northeast, the
frontal boundary looks to remain quasi-stationary across the
Southeast through the end of the work week as it struggles to
penetrate past an entrenched Bermuda surface high pressure
system. This will lead to multiple days of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area through the end of the work week.


With the passage of the cold front, and daily shower and
thunderstorm activity possible, temperatures will drop down to
near climatological averages for this time of the year, with
highs in the 70s/80s each day and lows in the 50s/60s each
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions look to prevail at all terminals through the
period; however, some IFR to LIFR VSBYs may impact LWB towards
the early morning hours on Monday between 05-12 UTC. These
restrictions would likely come from river valley fog that may
develop during the early morning hours. Outside of these brief
restrictions at LWB, VFR conditions are expected to remain at
all terminals through the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through
the beginning of next week outside of any river valley fog that
may develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief
periods of restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More
widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected for
Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm
chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with
the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to
sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical
outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have
been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is
being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our current forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     94 in 1962  69 in 1996       92
Lynchburg   93 in 1911  68 in 1894       92
Danville    93 in 1974  69 in 2015       94
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 2015       86
Blacksburg  88 in 1911  61 in 2018       89


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     96 in 1962  69 in 2022       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022       93
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962       94
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977       86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938       90

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...RCS/AB