Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

671
FXUS61 KRNK 250045
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
845 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated first paragraph of the Discussion to discuss this
evening`s convection. Heavy rain and lightning are the main
concerns with a low chance for any damaging winds.

The aviation forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm humid conditions return with
periodic showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Isolated flash flooding is possible due to
repeated rounds of showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm humid conditions return with
periodic showers and thunderstorms.

Wedging has more or less broken down across the region, with
winds across the area now out of the south or southeast. Area of
decent thunderstorms was moving from SE WV into parts of VA
this evening. Seeing some elevated winds around 30 kts, with
lightning and moderate rain occurring in the stronger cells, now
stretching from Bluefield WV to just north of Lewisburg, WV. SPC
mesoanalysis was showing some pockets of MUCAPE on the outer
edges of our previous wedge, and about where the storms are now.
We are still very saturated with a little cap noticeable on
this evening`s RNK 00Z sounding. So not expecting anything
severe, but heavy rain and lightning could pose a threat.

Will be watching series of short waves embedded within the
upper flow skirt our area to the west. This will bring
opportunity for more organized showers and thunderstorms to the
area, favoring the mountains with respect to greatest QPF
this evening and tonight, then repeating the cycle Monday
through Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. It will be hard
to peg exact timing of futuristic activity per noisy shortwave
pattern and remnant stationary surface front, but at a minimum,
should get a daily boost of CAPE from daytime heating leading to
good opportunity for wetting and an abundance of cloud cover.

In a nut shell, looking at several days of considerable cloud
cover, showers, storms and elevated humidity. Temperatures
may average a few degrees below normal, but due to the elevated
dewpoints, the air will feel warmer due to less evaporation.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Isolated flash flooding is possible due to
repeated rounds of showers/storms.

A very moist atmosphere (regional PWATs above 1.50) and
potential for repeat shower/thunderstorm activity will lead to
increasing potential for isolated flash flooding. Accumulative
rain totals through Wednesday are expected to average 1-2"
across the forecast area...not significant considering the
ongoing drought, and much of this expected to be intercepted by
vegetation and soaked up by the thirsty ground. But due to the
high rain rates with some of the stronger deep convection it is
possible to get isolated occurrences of 3-4 inches of rain in a
short period of time yielding gully washer type rainfall on a
localized basis. As such, the Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted our forecast area for a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall favoring the mountains tonight and expanding it to
include the entire forecast area Monday through Wednesday, the
most vulnerable being urban, low-lying and flood prone areas.

To a lesser concern are the rivers, but multiple days of
thunderstorm activity can lead to rises on the larger streams
too. Even if it does not flood, those camping near streams need
to be aware of sudden rises. There may be temptation to camp on
sandbars and islands, but with thunderstorms in the forecast, a
river can rise several feet in just a few hours, quickly
flooding what appeared to be a safe place to camp.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms may approach BLF and LWB during the
next couple hours. Otherwise, poor flying conditions are
expected tonight due to a cool and damp easterly flow that will
wedge moisture against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.
Ceilings should lower to IFR and eventually LIFR by early Monday
morning. Patchy fog and periods of rain will take place during
this timeframe. By Monday afternoon, ceilings should improve to
MVFR by Monday afternoon, but another round of showers and
thunderstorms will occur as a frontal boundary remains stalled
across the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
More chances of showers and thunderstorms will linger through
Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal boundary remains parked
across the Appalachian Mountains. MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities are likely due to the damp conditions, especially
during the nighttime hours where fog should develop. By
Thursday, the frontal boundary will head southward as high
pressure builds from the north. Conditions may improve to VFR by
Thursday night into Friday as drier air arrives.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...PW