Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS61 KRNK 280554
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible today. First round
possible this morning with a second, more potent round of
storms beginning by the afternoon. Damaging winds will be the
main threat, with a secondary tornado and hail threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Multiple chances for thunderstorms today. Storms
have the potential to be strong/severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Multiple chances for thunderstorms today. Storms
have the potential to be strong/severe.

A potent upper shortwave will traverse through the Great Lakes
this morning, shifting into New England by this evening. Slight
amplification of this wave will occur by the afternoon, and
multiple waves of storms will be possible.

Current satellite indicates a decaying Mesoscale Convective
System over the Tennessee Valley with some renewed development
now across the upper Ohio Valley. Guidance has development
within this zone continuing over the next few hours, but
confidence in this is still rather uncertain given meager
coverage of storms ongoing when compared to model simulated
reflectivity. Should this area fill in as modeled, it will drop
south into the forecast area around daybreak. Severe threat
with this should be fairly minimal based on limited
instability, however increasing bulk shear could support a few
organized bowing segments capable of strong wind gusts.

A second round of storms will be possible this afternoon
associated with the main frontal passage. Storms this afternoon
will be highly dependent on how the morning convection
progresses through the area. At the moment, it appears there
will at least be some clearing by early afternoon resulting in
marginal surface heating within a moist boundary layer yielding
MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Increasing deep layer shear
overlapping with favorable instability will likely result in
widely scattered storms capable of all severe modes. 0-6 km
shear (30-40 knots) is also supportive of supercells, which
could produce isolated tornadoes given increasing 0-3 km SRH by
mid- afternoon. Supercells and organized multicell line
segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts.

A localized flash flooding threat also exists within areas of
training/repeated rounds of storms. Overall, storms motions
should help mitigate the flooding threat today.

The front and trough axis moves quickly southeast and out of the
forecast area by midnight. Upslope flow may bring a few showers
to the mountains overnight, but the severe threat will be over.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR this morning with mostly areas of cirrus moving across from
upstream convection over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Should
see increasing development of storms throughout the morning,
shifting south into the area arriving sometime around 6AM - 9AM.
Some clearing is expected to occur sometime late morning and
into the afternoon with a second round of storms expected to
develop in the afternoon/evening.

After 22Z or so, most models have storms out of southeast WV,
continuing for eastern VA and NC for a few more hours through at
least 00z. Improving conditions expected late tonight as storms
lessen, with perhaps just some residual upslope showers in West
Virginia through midnight.

Winds increasing by mid morning to 10 to 15 knots, with gusts
up to 25 knots possible by the afternoon, turning from
southwesterly to westerly by early afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Gusty, post frontal winds are expected Wednesday, but VFR. The
rest of the week through Friday will also be mainly VFR, outside
of any morning fog. Precipitation chances increase again by
Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG