Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

104
FXUS61 KRNK 051158
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
758 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Fog is dissipating. Stratus has thinned out. Cirrus will be slow
to clear southside VA and piedmont of NC, but should eventually see
some sun for the afternoon.

Overall temperature forecast for the week ahead had trended
warmer.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
After morning clouds and fog, then drying begins. No rain
Monday through Friday. Patchy frost possible in some of the
mountain valleys Tuesday morning. Temperatures trending much
warmer for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lingering moisture this morning will make for a misty start to
your Monday. Some areas are experienced patchy dense fog, but
this is clearing. A dry northwest wind is forecast by afternoon
which should further open up the sky to sunshine. Temperatures
are expected to rebound into the 70s this afternoon.

Much drier air arrives along with the high pressure for tonight
and Tuesday. With dewpoints dropping into the 30s/40s this
should promote a cool night tonight with temperatures most areas
falling into the 40s for lows. The mountain valleys across the
VA Highlands and into the Greenbrier Valley may slip into the
upper 30s... so it`s conceivable to have some patchy frost there
early Tuesday morning. Overall however, model output statistical
(MOS) guidance is a degree or two higher than the cool nights we
had a week ago.

Tuesday morning should be the coolest, then the numbers trend
warmer as the High passes overhead and the airmass modifies.
High temperatures are now advertised in the low-mid 80s for the
piedmont by Thursday with 70s elsewhere. The week as a whole
looks like it is going to be dry, and for the most part, clouds
should be at a minimum. Will have to watch to see if any
moisture gets trapped underneath the subsidence inversion.
Forecast soundings, especially those near the southern Blue
Ridge suggest a shallow layer of moisture may get trapped
underneath for Tuesday and Wednesday. If this occurs, then look
for a thin layer of strato-cu to develop.

Our next opportunity for rain may occur next weekend into early
next week (i.e. 6-7 days from now). NHC is monitoring a broad
area of low pressure in the Gulf, and this feature may develop
into a cyclone this week. It is possible the system moves ashore
and eventually brings some moisture to our area. That is a lot
of ifs, so for now advertising just a chance of rain for the
second half of the weekend and early next week (Oct 11-12).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Morning fog and stratus is dissipating. Winds aloft are out of
the northwest, so once mixing begins, should pick-up a drying
northwest breeze with speeds of 5 to 15kts after 14z/10AM.
Anticipating development of widespread VFR conditions for the
afternoon.

For tonight winds will diminish with formation of mountain
valley fog. The surrounding areas of KLWB/KBCB/KBLF will be most
impacted.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of this week as high
pressure takes control. The only exception that could interrupt
the good flying weather will be patchy overnight into early
morning river valley fog. A shallow VFR cloud layer may also
form underneath the subsidence inversion, especially over the
southern Blue Ridge southwest of ROA for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM