Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

635
FXUS61 KRNK 291027
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
627 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The entire forecast has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms should develop along the
Blue Ridge this afternoon.

2) Hot and humid conditions will occur after Tuesday, but storm
chances may return by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should
develop along the Blue Ridge this afternoon.

While a cold front heads offshore today, moisture convergence
and instability should spark isolated showers and thunderstorms
along the Blue Ridge. However, the convection may not occur
until after midday as some areas of fog will develop early this
morning and will need to burn off before sufficient daytime
heating can be obtained. Aside from a passing weak shortwave
trough aloft to the north, not much upper level forcing is
available. Thus, any storms this afternoon do not appear to
become too strong, so gusty winds and heavy downpours should be
the only concerns. Any convection should wane after sunset, and
coverage of storms should lessen by Tuesday as an upper level
ridge approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will occur after
Tuesday, but storm chances may return by the upcoming weekend.

A broad upper level ridge will build northeastward towards the
Appalachian Mountains during Tuesday and Wednesday. This ridge
should become centered overhead by Thursday and Friday. While
chances of showers and thunderstorms should stay limited due to
capping aloft, the bigger impact will be the increasing heat
and humidity. Temperatures should jump notably after Tuesday
with highs in the 90s for most locations and even a few lower
100s east of the Blue Ridge for the remainder of this week. Heat
indices could reach up to 105 degrees across the Piedmont.
Upper level troughing across southeastern Canada by the upcoming
weekend could cause the ridge to slowly weaken and allow
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. However, this
Independence Day weekend should still remain hot and humid. Make
sure to have plenty of water and sunscreen, and check your air
conditioners to ensure that they are working properly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are impacting most terminals this morning.
These restrictions are expected to linger through at least 12
UTC at most terminals as a frontal boundary remains stalled
across the region. These restrictions may erode slower than is
typical this time of year, with VFR conditions not expected to
return until 18 UTC today for some terminals as a broken deck
of MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to hang around due to this
backdoor frontal boundary.

Winds look to be light and variable or calm through the night,
and stay that way, or trend light east/southeast, through the
day and night today.

Isolated showers look possible along the Blue Ridge this
afternoon and evening; however, probabilities are not high
enough to include at any terminals at this time.

MVFR to LIFR restrictions look possible again Tuesday morning;
however, coverage and intensity of fog and low cloud development
is still uncertain at this time. Given model agreement, have
opted to include MVFR to IFR restrictions at most terminals for
Tonight into Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Cannot rule out some isolated showers/storms the rest of the
week, but the upcoming week will feature high pressure and
mainly VFR conditions, outside any late night fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...EB