Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

079
FXUS61 KRNK 010010
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening aviation update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warming trend peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building
in for the weekend behind a cold front passage.

2) The current period of dry and clear weather ends late Friday
into the weekend with increasing chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend peaks Friday, with a cold air
wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage.


Upper level ridging is expected to build over the southeast
states, with the northern periphery likely across the Ohio
valley and Mid- Atlantic states region. This will allow for
increasing temperatures through Friday before the arrival of a
cold front pushes into the region late on Friday.

Behind this cold front, surface high pressure is expected to
slide from the northern Great lakes region into the Northeast,
which will briefly lead to cold air wedging developing over
VA/NC Saturday and Sunday. This will dramatically cool
temperatures areawide back to normal or just below normal for
the weekend. The possibility of a secondary shortwave trough and
stronger cold front look to push into the region late Monday
into Tuesday, which looks to reinforce the cooler air into
midweek.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends
late Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain.

With the approach of a cold front on Friday night, and moisture
from the remnants from Polo overriding the front, the region
looks to be in store for a couple days of cool and rainy
conditions through the weekend. Specifics on rainfall totals are
still uncertain at this time, as ensemble model guidance has
shifted towards the surface high pressure and dry air aloft
inhibiting rainfall production across the area. The cutoff line
of dry vs moist air is quite evident and sharp, and the
placement of this line as the frontal boundary stalls will play
a great role in how much precipitation the area sees over the
weekend. If this line remains across northern VA, much of the
area will see beneficial rainfall; however, if this line of
drier air penetrates further south beyond the I-64 corridor,
then much of the area will miss out on any heavy rainfall.

We dry out next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All terminals are at VFR this evening, with only some scattered
cirrus clouds across the area. VFR will continue through the
night at BLF/LYH/ROA, with patchy fog briefly possible at
DAN around 09-12z, though confidence is low. For BCB/LWB, there
is higher confidence of dense fog due to near calm winds and the
clearing of skies overnight. LIFR conditions will be possible
after 06z for LWB, and after 09z for BCB. Any fog will
dissipate by 14z Thursday morning.

Another quiet weather day is expected for Thursday, with no rain
chances and mostly clear skies. VFR flight conditions continue
through the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain relatively light
around 5-7 knots, with gusts near 15 knots in the Piedmont.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Aside from morning river/valley fog, VFR conditions are expected
to persist through midday Friday, before rain chances increase
late Friday into the upcoming weekend. Showers are possible
throughout the weekend, some heavy at times, though rain will
not be constant. Widespread cloud cover is expected each day,
with likely sub-VFR flight conditions.

Winds shift to the Northeast by Saturday, due to a cold air
wedge, with mountain locations again seeing winds shift to the
Southeast by Sunday morning as the wedge locks in through Sunday
night. Rain chances end and skies finally clear as the wedge
erodes Monday, with winds shifting back to the Northwest, with
area-wide VFR expected to return.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...JCB