Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS61 KRNK 010040
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
740 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and mild Sunday for most, a few showers/sprinkles
possible in the mountains early.

2) Wintry weather possible early next week, though uncertainty
remains high.

3) Looking warmer with showery weather Thu-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: No weather issues thru Sunday

Drier air working end eroding the stratus in the southside VA
Piedmont and NW NC Piedmont early this afternoon. Sunny skies
rest of the day.

A few clouds arriving from the west tonight and potential for
some mid/high clouds across the Piedmont will lead to lows being
warmer than Saturday morning with mid 30s to lower 40s.

As front approaches Sunday morning, some of the high-res models
spit out some light shower activity across the WV mountains.
Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds in the west
and west winds pick up with gusts to 20 mph. Front pushing
south into NC by late in the day allows for a big difference in
temps. Warmer highs across southside VA into the NC
Piedmont/foothills with lower 70s, to lower to mid 50s in the WV
mountains.



KEY MESSAGE 2: A mix of wintry precipitation remains possible for
Monday/Tuesday. Uncertainty still high for exact p-types, amounts,
and timing.

A classic dry wedge is expected to build southward into Georgia and
South Carolina, setting the stage for a prolonged period of wintry
weather. Moisture will begin overrunning this wedge late Sunday
night, and continue into Monday. Because the airmass starts very dry
with dewpoints in the 20s, initial precipitation will evaporate and
cool the air further, reinforcing the wedge and holding temperatures
in the 30s. By Monday afternoon, isentropic lift and moisture will
increase across the region. With surface temperatures hovering in
the mid 30s, much of this will fall as white rain  snow that melts
immediately upon contact with the ground. Light accumulations are
expected to be confined mainly to grassy and elevated surfaces.
However, as an easterly flow pulls in additional Atlantic moisture
and temperatures dip into the lower 30s, some light snow
accumulation may occur on untreated roads overnight.

By Tuesday, the parent high-pressure center will drift offshore,
transitioning the system into a hybrid wedge. A bubble of high
pressure is expected to linger over southern Virginia and the North
Carolina foothills, keeping a cold boundary layer locked in at the
surface while warmer air moves in aloft. This setup will cause the
snow to transition to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While the
primary zone of moisture and lift will track northward throughout
the day, the wedge is likely to persist longer than some models
suggest, hanging over the foothills and Piedmont through Tuesday
night and into Wednesday morning. Although the deepest moisture will
have exited, low clouds, fog, drizzle and pockets of freezing
drizzle will remain possible. The wedge is finally expected to erode
throughout the day Wednesday as a southerly flow takes hold,
allowing temperatures to warm significantly into the low to
mid-60s.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Warming trend but showery at times

Pattern change with 5h ridge across the southeast and trough
across the west. Flow across our area will turn more west-
southwest with embedded shortwaves along a front providing a
small chance for showers Thu, then as cold front edges closer,
ensembles/models show a slight uptick in shower chances Fri-Sat,
but still some differences on strength of ridge in the southeast
and speed of front/proximity to us for better lift.
Probabilities are high that temperatures will be running 15 to
20+ degrees above normal by the end of next with highs in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looking at VFR through the overnight. MVFR cigs may develop over
the mountains of WV Sunday morning associated with the passage
of a cold front. Some models show potential for low clouds/fog
for areas east of DAN/LYH late tonight but leaning optimistic
as winds begin to increase ahead of inbound cold front from the
Ohio Valley, the mixing helping to prevent this.

Winds will generally remain light overnight, then become gusty
with the passage of the cold front Sunday, favoring northwest
initially, then becoming northerly or northeasterly later in
the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Cold front is expected to stall south of the region Sunday
night, then become the focus for overrunning clouds and
precipitation Monday into Tuesday flight conditions
deteriorating to IFR and possibly LIFR. Temperatures may be
cold enough for a wintry mix Monday night, with the potential
for freezing rain, otherwise the main precipitation type is
expected to be rain. The front is expected to lift north of the
region by Wednesday with conditions improving to MVFR and
possibly VFR. Shower chances arrive Thursday but looks
scattered, so overall mainly VFR later in the week outside of
any vsby restriction from showers.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...PM