Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS61 KRNK 032322
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
722 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated for 00z TAFs...

Small tweaks to the grids to adjust for observations and decrease
radar activity.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures today and Saturday.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
mountain locations.

2. Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool down early next
week, temperatures returning to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures Saturday. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms will be possible mainly across mountain
locations.

Strong high pressure will continue to remain anchored over
Bermuda through Saturday, which will maintain its influence over
the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states tonight and
tomorrow. This surface high pressure in combination with an
upper level ridge situated generally over the same area will
maintain well above normal afternoon highs Saturday.

On Saturday, enhanced convergence in the surface flow ahead of
the approaching cold front combined with a pre-frontal trough
pushing through NW North Carolina/eastern Tennessee, and
increased instability across the area will lead to more
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances across mountain
locations towards the afternoon and evening hours. Overall,
these storms Saturday afternoon look to have the potential to
produce some small hail and gusty winds; however, upper level
shear and deep layer instability looks to be quite limited ahead
of the approach of the cold front. This will lead to a limited
threat for severe winds and hail on Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2:  Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool
down early next week, temperatures returning to normal.

A big change to the weather pattern will occur across the
region overnight Saturday into Sunday, with the arrival of a
cold front. This cold front is likely to be the last chance for
meaningful rainfall across the region for at least a week after
its passage. Probabilities for receiving at least 0.50" of
rainfall have remained steady at to around 60-90% for areas
west of the Blue Ridge, but have increased to around 50-75% for
areas east of the Blue Ridge. This front looks to at least bring
some meaningful rainfall to the area before the region dries out
for the foreseeable future.

Cooler and drier air will advect into the region from the
northwest behind the cold front, with yet an even cooler shot of
air by the middle of next week. Temperatures fall into the 30s
each morning on Monday and Tuesday with some frost potential in
the mountains. Temperatures by Wednesday morning could be well
below freezing into the mid 20s across the mountains and low 30s
in the Piedmont areas. Given the recent warmth, some sensitive
vegetation could be impacted if preventive measures are not
taken ahead of time. With the official start to the growing
season started on April 5th for the Piedmont, frost/freeze
products may be needed for the Piedmont early next week and into
the middle of next week for that potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will dominate the region through Saturday
morning, offering smooth flying for the vast majority of the
area. As daybreak approaches on Saturday, MVFR ceilings will
begin to develop and drift into the North Carolina counties
situated east of KUKF. This initial layer of cloud cover will
gradually mix out as the morning progresses, though a steady
southeasterly flow just off the surface will pin the remaining
clouds against the crest of the Blue Ridge through the early
afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon and evening, the atmosphere will shift as
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ignite
primarily across the mountains. These storms will introduce a
mix of MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings to the higher terrain.
Pilots should anticipate brief windows of IFR or MVFR
visibilities occurring directly under the heaviest downpours
before the activity tapers off.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The coverage of showers and storms will trend significantly
more robust Saturday night and into Sunday as a cold front
approaches and passes through the region. During this time, sub-
VFR ceilings and visibilities will become increasingly common
across the landscape. These restrictive conditions will persist
until the front finally clears the area from west to east on
Sunday afternoon.

By Sunday night, the pressure gradient will tighten, causing
winds to turn gusty from the northwest. Wind gusts will likely
reach the 20 to 30 kt range across the mountains, while the
Piedmont will see slightly lower gusts between 15 and 20 kt.
Following this frontal passage, a stretch of quiet weather will
take hold, bringing dry conditions and VFR skies to the entire
region from Monday through Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/RCS
AVIATION...DS/RCS