Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

117
FXUS61 KRNK 011119
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
719 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
April Fools...nothing has changed! Or did it?

Split Key messages into two bullets. Weather today seems to need
its own focus since we are entertaining hazardous weather.

Confidence has increased for storms north of I-64.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.

2) Well above normal temperatures the remainder of the week
with chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:  Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.

Focus for thunderstorm development today is mainly north of the
forecast area along a quasi-stationary front from the Ohio
Valley into Pennsylvania. This front is forecast to get a nudge
to the south with opportunity for ongoing activity to drift as
far south as the I-64 corridor this afternoon and evening. Wind
flow aloft is out of the west with mean wind of 30-35 mph so
storms that enter the CWA should be moving a long at a good
clip. Main concern will be wind and hail. Model soundings show
mid-level dry layer, 0-3km SRH of 150-200, and SBCAPE of
1500-2000...all of which support potential for at least some
marginally severe storms late this afternoon with primary threat
being hail and wind. A few supercells are possible with model
updraft helicity swaths and supercell composite indices
favoring an area between PKB-CKB...mainly north of our area.
Would not be surprised if parts of the region just north of our
CWA is upgraded to a slight risk at some point today.

In addition to the thunderstorm threat associated with front to
our north, the convective allowing models also produce
scattered airmass showers and thunderstorms along the spine of
the Blue Ridge, initiating over the mountains late in the
afternoon and continuing through the evening...propagating to
the east with the mean wind. Cold temperatures aloft support
small hail from these storms and can`t rule out a stronger pulse
storm with an isolated downburst where the higher storm core
interacts with the mid-level dry air.

In general, storms north of I-64 will be more organized (per
stronger westerly flow aloft and proximity of front) where
storms along the spine of the Blue Ridge into north Carolina
will be less organized and more pulse in nature (relying on the
heat of the day and thermodynamics to develop and propagate).


KEY MESSAGE 2: Well above normal temperatures expected the
remainder of the week with chance for mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast area will remain under dominant southwest flow through
Saturday...an airmass more indicative of late spring with
persistent dewpoints in the 50s. High pressure centered over
Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through the remainder of
the week, clockwise flow around the high flooding the southeast
CONUS with warm air and supporting temperatures 15 to 20
degrees above the seasonal norm. The moist nature of the airmass
will aid in development of scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, favoring the mountains where
orographic lift will be the primary lifting mechanism.

After Saturday, the Bermuda high breaks down as upper low
settles over the eastern CONUS, its associated cold front
sweeping through the area Sunday. At that time a change in
airmass will take place with much cooler, more seasonal
temperatures returning for the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will be the prevailing situation at most TAF
sites this April 1st. A few showers and thunderstorms may move
in from the west in the afternoon, with BLF/LWB experiencing the
highest chances of impacts to flight conditions, and ROA/BCB
slightly lesser and for a shorter period. Main concerns would be
lowered cigs or temporarily reduced vsby in the heart of a
shower or storm. DAN/LYH are far enough east that they will
likely remain VFR the entire forecast period. Winds will be
moderate out of the west at generally 6-10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms may affect
mainly the mountain TAF sites generally between 18 and 03Z
again Thursday and Friday with sub-VFR conditions. Conditions
should return to VFR once convection ends each night. By the
weekend however, coverage of showers/storms increases and could
result in MVFR or lower conditions at times. The cold front
should move through Sunday night, coincident with very gusty NW
winds.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...VFJ