Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

634
FXUS61 KRNK 110646
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Increasing confidence in a cold snap beginning Thursday. Wind
chills drop below 15F Friday and Saturday nights in the
mountains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain returns Thursday, with a transition to upslope snow
showers for the mountains Friday. Colder and windy conditions
develop and last through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain returns Thursday, with a transition to
upslope snow showers for the mountains Friday. Colder and
windy conditions develop and last through the weekend.

As a closed low takes a southern then easterly trajectory into
the Mid Atlantic towards the weekend, reinforcing cold air
waves will push temperatures down into the 30s and 40s for highs
Friday and Saturday for the mountains, while the Piedmont drops
into the 50s for highs. Looking at NAEFS temperature anomalies,
beginning Thursday afternoon through next Wednesday, 850mb
temperatures will be 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal in
the area. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s and 30s for lows
by Thursday night in the mountains, with strong cold air
advecting into the Piedmont by Friday night into early next
week. There will be several nights of hard killing freezes
beginning Friday morning, with even the Piedmont dropping into
the upper 20s to low 30s.

The other concern will be strong and gusty westerly and then NW
winds which will begin Thursday and continue into the weekend.
Gusts between 30 to 40 mph will be possible for the mountain
ridges and higher elevations. Very cold wind chills develop, and
will be worst Friday and Saturday nights, where parts of the
mountains will drop into the 12-20F degree range for the "feels
like" temperature. While it will be very unpleasant and a shock
to the system, we will be several degrees too warm for any Cold
Weather advisories. Temperatures rebound some early next week.

Light rain and eventually snow arrives in the mountains
Thursday through Saturday night. Today looks like the last warm
day in the freezable future. Spokes of upper level energy
moving around an upper low will help trigger surface
cyclogenesisover the OH and TN Valleys and steer a surface
system into the southern and central Appalachians Thursday. This
will trigger light rain showers over the mountains and possibly
into the Piedmont. Precipitation will be very light and mix
with and eventually change over to light snow as we transition
into a NW upslope event Thursday night continuing into Saturday
morning, mainly impacting the Greenbrier Valley. Amounts will be
low each day and it will be difficult for the snow to stick to
the warmer ground initially. But as the event continues we could
see some light accumulations. High pressure pushes into the
region by Sunday, and the remainder of the weekend will be dry,
but cold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through about
12/10Z, when MVFR or lower ceilings begin to creep into the
mountains as well as rain showers.

Relatively light west winds become west/northwest winds
tomorrow night. Winds will generally remain light at around 5
knots, with gusts up to 5-12 knots through the afternoon and
evening hours. After 12/09Z, expect gusts to 25 knots in the
mountains from the NW.

Some morning fog is possible briefly this morning for KLWB, but
confidence is not very high, so have opted to leave as a TEMPO
for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Light rain showers may mix with snow mainly for BLF/LWB
tomorrow night into Friday. Accumulations will be nil initially.
Gusty northwesterly winds will reach 20 to 30 knots Thursday
through Saturday.

MVFR or lower conditions are possible Thursday through at least
Friday across the mountains, mainly for KBLF and KLWB, with
persistent low clouds.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH