Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

714
FXUS61 KRNK 110629
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
229 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted probability of precipitation to account for a better
chance of showers/storms over the west/southwest this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Unsettled weather expected through the weekend.

Key Message 2: Drying trend expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Unsettled weather expected through the weekend.

Strong storms with isolated damaging winds/localized flooding
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Better rain coverage
associated with cooler temperatures is expected Sunday.

A cold front dropping south from the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley will be the next feature to watch for later today, and
more so into Sunday as this feature combines with the passage of
an upper level trough Sunday. For Saturday we will still be on
the warm side of the front, so think we heat up again and go
through another cycle of scattered afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Cloud coverage may limit instability but any
sunshine along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
allows for modest CAPE, so cannot rule out an isolated severe
wind gusts/microburst. PWATS remain high as well, but expect
speed of storms to be in the 20-25 mph range, but cannot rule
out localized flooding if training of storms occurs.

Model trends slowing the frontal passage, so Sunday looks like
the wetter day, and with front bisecting the area and/or just
south along the VA/NC border, storms will be less, but coverage
of clouds/showers will be greater.

The base of the upper trough enters the area Monday, and the
front tracks further south, but southwest flow overrunning the
front looks to keep higher chances of rain into Monday.

Key Message 2: Drying trend expected next week.

The front exits south next week with high pressure building in
from the north by Tuesday. A 5h heat dome builds across the
northern/central plains and will extending east into the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians by Tuesday. The ridge splits off
over us midweek, then a deeper trough digs into New England by
the end of the week. This set-up will put us in mainly hot, dry
west-northwest flow, temperatures heating up again for Wednesday
through Friday, with mainly isolated terrain driven
showers/storms until Friday when northwest flow and digging
trough in the northeast could bring a slightly higher coverage
of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increase in clouds will limit fog during the early morning, but
still some MVFR to IFR fog possible mainly in the mountains,
with potential IFR cigs at BLF and MVFR LWB/BCB.

Should see stratus/fog lift enough after 14z, with mainly VFR
through the day. Latest trends paint the best corridor of
showers/storms along and southwest of a line from BLF-GSO this
morning, then more scattered by later in the afternoon/evening.
Since higher confidence at BLF made a tempo group between 20/22z
for thunderstorms, with VCTS elsewhere in the afternoon for all
other terminals. Showers/few storms linger into Saturday evening
but since it will be more scattered, kept out of tafs, and cigs
will drop again to MVFR in the mountains by late evening with
potential fog forming.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and storms will be more numerous Sunday as a front drops
through the area, so expect potential for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys
with heavy downpours. Slow moving front to keep forecast on the
wetter side into Monday so again sub-VFR at least with the
showers. High pressure builds south into the area midweek with
mainly VFR expected aside from potential low stratus/fog in the
typical spots like LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PM/RCS