Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

637
FXUS61 KRNK 060221
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
921 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation update; otherwise, there have been very few changes to
the current forecast.

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Chances of showers will increase during Friday and the upcoming
weekend and again by the latter half of next week.

2) Above normal temperatures continue. Record or near record highs
and lows are possible; please see the Climate section below.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Chances of showers will increase during Friday
and the upcoming weekend and again by the latter half of next
week.

A weak low pressure system will pass to the north across
northern West Virginia during this evening into Friday. This
system could spark a few showers along and north of the
Interstate 64 corridor. With the abnormal warmth expected by
Friday afternoon, there may be enough instability and
orographical convergence to spark isolated showers along the
Blue Ridge. A stray thunderstorm may be possible across
northwest North Carolina. The better chance of convection may
come during late Saturday across the mountains when a cold front
approaches from the west. If this convection arrives quickly
enough to tap into the available instability, there could be a
marginal threat of damaging winds. However, confidence is still
low on this severe risk as most of the activity may not arrive
until after sunset, which would inhibit the intensity of any
storms.

Showers should continue into Sunday as a cold front crosses the
Appalachian Mountains. Any chances of convection will shift
towards Southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont on
Sunday afternoon, but cooler and drier air will end the threat
by Sunday night. The cold front should weaken and stall across
the Southeast, and this lingering boundary may allow for
isolated showers to develop through parts of early next week.
Meanwhile, another cold front should organize along the
Mississippi River Valley in response to an upper level low over
northern Mexico. Because the models struggle significantly with
the timing of ejecting these southern stream upper level lows
eastward, it is difficult to pinpoint when the next opportunity
for decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms will occur. At
this point, the latter half of next week is the best bet for
increasing chances of convection.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures continue. Record or
near record highs and lows are possible; please see the Climate
section below.

The southeastern United States and Mid Atlantic region will be
on the northern periphery of Bermuda ridging through Saturday.
By Sunday, a ribbon of short wave energy stretched across the
middle of the country, but anchored to a closed low in Baja, CA,
will begin to suppress ridging to our south. This will leave
the door open for a steady stream of short wave energy through
next week as the upper low ejects into TX. Likewise, the Gulf of
America will be wide open, with predominantly SW winds
funneling moisture into the region. This will result in periods
of cloud cover and rain showers.

We will be mainly in the warm air associated with these systems
through Wednesday next week. The exception will be the mountains
Sunday with a cold front passage. Building heights,
compressional warming, and SSW winds will supports high
temperatures well above normal most of the period. Ensemble
members show very little spread as far as temperatures most
days, except for Sunday, when widespread rain is expected with
the frontal passage.

There is a near 100 percent chance for temperatures to warm
above 75 degrees Friday east of a North Wilkesboro to Roanoke
line, while this same area sees about a 40 to 60 percent chance
Saturday. For the mountains, low to mid 70s are likely through
Saturday, before dropping into the 60s Sunday. We remain warm
into next week, and a look at NAEFS situational awareness tables
show about a +2 to +3 standard deviation temperature-wise
during this time. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of
Tails is almost maxed out in the maximum and minimum
temperatures categories through midweek next, indicating an
extreme heat event is more likely than usual. Record or near
record highs and lows are possible; please see the Climate
section below.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are widespread this evening, and will remain so
for the majority of the next 24 hours. The few light showers
that had been occurring near LWB have dissipated or moved
further north and away from the site. Mid to high level clouds
will remain through much of the night, but will generally remain
above 5kft. Some patchy valley fog may cause brief vsby issues
before dawn. Otherwise, Friday will be a partly cloudy, warm day
with only isolated chances for showers in the afternoon.
Confidence in rain impacting any TAF sites is low enough that it
has not been included in any TAFs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Higher and more widespread chances for rain, sub-VFR conditions,
and perhaps thunderstorms arrive Saturday into Sunday with a
cold frontal passage. Some rain chances linger into Monday.
Nightly chances for fog will also be expected, as warm, humid
air surges into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday 03/06/2026
Site  MaxT Year   HiMin Year  MaxForecast MinForecast
KBLF    74   1956  55   1961    73        56
KDAN    82   1976  61   1961    81        56
KLYH    80   1956  58   2022    79        57
KROA    80   1956  59   1961    81        57
KRNK    76   1976  55   1946    76        53


Saturday 03/07/2026
Site  MaxT Year  HiMin Year  MaxForecast  MinForecast
KBLF    75   1921  56   1961    72        57
KDAN    82   1961  56   1961    78        59
KLYH    81   2022  58   1956    77        55
KROA    83   2009  62   1956    79        58
KRNK    75   1921  48   2024    74        56

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...AS/VFJ
CLIMATE...SH