Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

551
FXUS61 KRNK 021144
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
744 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z aviation update...

A Flood Watch has been extended to all counties in NW NC, SW
VA, and SE WV along and northwest of a Pilot Mountain, NC to
Lynchburg, VA line through early Monday morning for instances of
flash flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Life-threatening flash flooding ongoing and continues to be
possible today and tonight with numerous rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected.

2) Unsettled weather continues through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Life-threatening flash flooding ongoing and
continues to be possible today and tonight with numerous rounds
of showers and thunderstorms expected.

Significant flash flooding occurred overnight over portions of
NW NC and SW VA, including the Mount Airy and Pilot Mountain
areas. This includes water rescues, cars caught in flood waters,
and water inundating roads and buildings. Mesoanalysis shows a
strong southeasterly LLJ interacting with the higher terrain
across the area in the vicinity of a warm front. Very high
rainfall rates have been indicative of this activity, with
rainfall totals of 6-10+ inches in some areas.

The increased lifting for ascent as the trough axis approaches
today and tonight will trigger additional showers and storms.
The strong SSE upslope flow will continue to enhance the rain
efficiency and support cell regeneration, leading to a continued
high chance for flash flooding, especially along higher
terrain. A few cells this afternoon and evening may also contain
damaging winds.

Per coordination with neighboring offices and with guidance from
WPC, have extended the Flood Watch to all counties in NW NC, SW
VA, and SE WV in our area along and northwest of a Pilot Mountain,
NC to Lynchburg, VA line through early Monday morning for
instances of flash flooding.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues through much of the
week.

The closed low will gradually open up as it moves from near
IL/IN towards the TN Valley and Mid Atlantic region through
Monday. Models have the base vorticity maximum cutting off
over the Deep South by Tuesday morning, remaining in the region
and continuing to help trigger showers and thunderstorms. At the
surface, surface low pressure lifts northeast from IL/IN but
strong southerly flow and a NE to SW oriented front stalls in
the forecast area, at least for Tuesday into Wednesday. This
will continue to enhance rainfall rates and pose mostly a flash
flood threat, although the occasional strong cell with damaging
winds will be possible. After that, we still have daily
afternoon and evening rain chances, with no real a FROPA
bringing an end to the influx of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low cigs along with scattered showers are keeping all terminals
sub-VFR this morning. Showers continue through the morning, with
thunderstorms developing this afternoon, some of which could
produce damaging winds. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds
should remain under 10 knots, with occasional gusts to 20 knots.
Cigs will rise at most terminals, with some VFR possible this
afternoon when not impacted by showers/storms. Best chance for
storms will be late afternoon into this evening, with heavy rain
possible at times, lowering flight categories to sub-VFR once
again.

Tonight, rain eventually clears out around 06z. Combined with
calm winds, dense fog is expected tonight in the mountains, with
patchy fog in the Piedmont. BCB/BLF/LWB could see 1/4 mile or
less VSBY for several hours through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower/storm chances will stick around Sunday evening, as a
cold front moves into the area. The front stalls, allowing daily
chances of rain to continue, keeping likely sub-VFR flight
conditions in place at times through the week ahead. Overnight
patchy fog will also be possible each morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
We continue to see a strong signal for flash flooding due to a
combination of strong mid and upper level forcing, numerous
surface boundaries, a strong LLJ perpendicular to the terrain,
and high moisture content. The Flood Watch had been extended to
include all counties in NW NC, SW VA, and SE WV in our area
along and northwest of a Pilot Mountain, NC to Lynchburg, VA
line through early Monday morning for instances of flash
flooding. Training cells and high rain rates may result in
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible,
especially along eastward facing terrain.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
     032>035-043.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...JCB/SH
HYDROLOGY...SH