Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS61 KRNK 181727
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
127 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Multiple chances for rainfall is expected, with a cold front
that is expected to stall across the area starting Wednesday.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat
possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late
week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following
the cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat
possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late
week.

Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through
Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic.
Although moisture at the surface has increased due to this flow, an
upper-level ridge has also strengthened and is suppressing
convection due to the drier air aloft. This synoptic setup will
allow temperatures to remain 15-20 degrees above normal for this
time of year, with highs in the 80s for the mountains, and low to
mid 90s for the Piedmont today and Tuesday. Temperatures are already
in the low 90s in parts of the Piedmont just after midday.
Therefore, some record highs may be in jeopardy today and tomorrow.
A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday, which will keep highs
a few degrees cooler in the mountains, though still in the 80s as
showers/storms move in late in the day. However, ahead of the front
in the Piedmont, highs will likely reach the mid 90s.

Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat
wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90
degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor
activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce
the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by
Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler
weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and
into the weekend.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation
following the cold front on Wednesday.

A Bermuda high pressure looks to develop and remain quasi-
stationary across the western Atlantic through the beginning of
next week. This will maintain southerly flow and a summer like
pattern in place across the region as moisture is advected north
into the Southeast from the Gulf and Atlantic. As moisture
finally moves into the region, PWATs generally look to recover
into the 1.0-1.5 inch range areawide. With ongoing drought
conditions, these conditions bode well for multiple rain
opportunities over the next week or so starting Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region
from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated
surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec
and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some
forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep
layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This
amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in
the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular
clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening
across the region. With these shear and instability values, some
hail and damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out across the area.
With this potential, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather for portions of central Virginia on
Wednesday.

By Thursday, this frontal boundary looks to stall across the
region providing some forcing for ascent across the region. The
presence of mid level disturbances progressing east along the
frontal boundary combined with a southward sagging 250mb jet
streak looks to increase deep layer shear slightly on Thursday.
This may lead to another day with possible severe weather
chances as instability looks to remain elevated as well.

Beyond Thursday, the aforementioned Bermuda high looks to
continue to remain over the western Atlantic, which will keep
the moist airmass over the Southeast. Mid-level disturbances
look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep
rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and
into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed
and beneficial rainfall to the area.

While its hard to imagine currently with the drought, if the
area does receive repeated heavy rainfall, during this period,
the flash flood threat may increase across the area; however,
these chances will need to be monitored through the week as
these systems move over the region.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

With dewpoints remaining low through Tuesday morning, early
morning fog doesn`t look as likely to develop at LWB like it has
the last two mornings. Given this dry trend, fog has not been
included in the TAFs at this time for LWB. Therefore, VFR
conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the
TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the
south/southwest through the TAF period at around 10 knots or
less. Wind gusts the next two afternoons looks to increase to
around 15-20 knots at all terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through
the beginning of the week outside of any river valley fog that may
develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of
restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with
the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud
cover linger through the end of the week with the system
possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR
conditions through the end of the work week.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical
outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have
been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is
being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our current forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     94 in 1962  69 in 1996       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1911  68 in 1894       93
Danville    93 in 1974  69 in 2015       94
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 2015       86
Blacksburg  88 in 1911  61 in 2018       90


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Station     Hi Max T    Hi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke     96 in 1962  69 in 2022       94
Lynchburg   93 in 1962  66 in 2022       93
Danville    95 in 1962  69 in 1962       95
Bluefield   89 in 1911  66 in 1977       86
Blacksburg  91 in 1911  61 in 1938       90

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...RCS