Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS61 KRNK 100535
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
135 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A return to a busier, stormier pattern today, through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A return to a busier, stormier pattern today,
through the weekend.

Upper ridging begins to flatten today in response to a weak
trough and associated surface front moving south from the Great
Lakes region. Westerly flow increases today ahead of the front
and may limit convection somewhat, especially east of the
mountains. Coverage is not expected to be widespread, but
greatest chance will be for the northern half of the forecast
area. This front will eventually slow and stall across the
Carolinas on Friday and may eventually move back north as a warm
front over the weekend. This will keep a greater chance for rain
and storms beginning Friday, persisting through the weekend and
into early next week.


We are included in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from
WPC over the weekend given the slow-moving/stalling front along
with high PWATs, so isolated flash flooding will be possible.
Shear for storm organization looks weak today given the front
still to the north. Isolated damaging winds will be possible
where/if storms can briefly take advantage and become severe.
Shear and instability both improve Friday and Saturday, and
these look like better chances for damaging winds and also flash
flooding, especially from the Blue Ridge westward.

The relative humidity will also increase Friday through the
weekend, making it muggier. For Monday into Tuesday, we look
mostly dry, with a few showers/isolated storms possible for the
southern Blue Ridge. The next frontal passage will occur the
following Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR except for patchy valley fog just before daybreak. Fog
will develop over the mountain river valleys, mainly impacting
KLWB, where vsbys could drop below 1SM for a few hours between
08Z and 13Z. Confidence is low for fog at other area terminals.

A frontal boundary approaches from the north today and a few
isolated showers/storms possible, mainly across the mountains.
Have opted to add VCTS at BCB/BLF/LWB for a few hours this
afternoon. Still too much uncertainty on coverage east of the
mountains to have left out TS elsewhere.

Later today, winds will be generally from the west between 5 to
10 knots. Occasional wind gusts between 15 to 20 knots can be
expected during the afternoon, but could be stronger around any
shower or storm.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and storms will move into the area Friday as a cold
front drops southward. The front then slows and stalls across
the Carolinas, creating a focus for widespread SHRA/TSRA. There
will be some decrease in activity overnight Friday night into
Saturday morning, then expect more showers and storms developing
Saturday afternoon and evening, and again on Sunday. This will
bring widespread sub-VFR conditions in periods of moderate to
heavy rain, stratus, and some fog in the evenings and
overnights. Winds may be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.
Drier weather is anticipated for Monday, but some afternoon
showers/storms may develop once again over the southern Blue
Ridge and towards the New River Valley.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/SH
AVIATION...AS/BMG