Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS61 KRNK 271040
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviaton updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Expect potential for strong storms today and Friday, with
locally heavy downpours.

2) Heat builds into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential strong storms this afternoon/evening
and again Friday. Damaging winds and localized flooding
possible.

An upper trough will remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS
today. Moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of a
weak surface trough/front extending from central NY/PA into the
central/southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorm development is
expected by mid/late afternoon.

Deep-layer shear will be weaker across our are but with a
relatively warm and well- mixed environment will support
potential for localized strong/damaging gusts from any storms.

Per convective allowing models appears coverage today will be
more scattered with best coverage along the southern Blue Ridge.

Elevated PWATs will also suffice in having torrential downpours.
Storm motions will be slow in the 15 to 20 mph range, but very
will could see some anchoring along the mountains with low
level weak south flow and flow aloft from the west-southwest.

Storms may linger well past midnight but weaker and still fairly
isolated.

Friday, the front slows and stalls somewhere across the VA/NC
Piedmont/Foothills, as several vorts track from the TN Valley to
the east coast. Looks like better severe threat appears to stay
east of the mountains, with more instability but will depend on
cloud coverage early in the day. If sunshine is plentiful expect
moderate to potentially strong instability east/southeast of the
front where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present.
Lapse rates will be quite weak, but most guidance shows
temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should
provide pockets of moderate to strong instability. Any storms
that can take advantage of the a stronger flow aloft may be
longer- lived and capable of some damaging wind gusts.

Again with stalled front, potential for training along and east
of the front may cause localized flooding issues. Again this
will be more east of the Blue Ridge.

Given the scattered nature in the convection am not seeing any
need to post any flood watches.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat builds into next week.

Under the influence of a main upper high/ridge, high temperatures
will be above normal by early next week with highs in the 90s
again in the Piedmont and mid to upper 80s in the mountains.
Storm chances will be limited due to the warming aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog appears limited this morning so going to start tafs with
VFR. Still looking at widely scattered storms evolving by 16-18z
mainly across the mountains edging east toward the Piedmont by
later in the day and evening. Decided to keep VCTS in at both
ROA/BCB based on latest models, but lower confidence on any
single airport having a thunderstorm moving across it this taf
period.

Tonight, models showing more potential for fog but still depends
on lingering cloud cover and if it rains at/near the terminal.
Will be somewhat pessimistic with IFR or worse vsbys at
LWB/BCB, then maybe MVFR at BLF/LYH.

Showers and storms will develop this afternoon but be more
hit/miss. Best concentration looks to be along the Blue Ridge
along south of ROA/BCB. So have VCTS in for a few hours for
those sites. Amendments need as necessary. Any storms could
bring lower vsbys and cigs and gusty winds.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Front arrives Thursday night into Friday. Showers/storms will
again be scattered about Friday but may be more concentrated
along and south of the VA/NC border. Aside from storms and any
morning fog across the mountains should be VFR. The weekend into
early next week appears drier with warmer temperatures. VFR
expected outside any late night fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WP
AVIATION...WP