Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

443
FXUS61 KRNK 031755
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
155 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated for 18z TAFs...

Forecast rainfall amounts remain consistent, with slight
increase for the Piedmont for the frontal system on Sunday.

A prolonged dry period next week with the potential for
frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Above normal temperatures today and Saturday.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
mountain locations.

2. Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool down early next
week, temperatures returning to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures today and Saturday.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
mountain locations.

Strong high pressure will continue to remain anchored over
Bermuda through Saturday, which will maintain its influence over
the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states today and
tomorrow. This surface high pressure in combination with an
upper level ridge situated generally over the same area will
maintain well above normal afternoon highs and mild overnight
lows today and again on Saturday.

With a general lack of forcing today, any shower and
thunderstorm formation will be relegated to mountain locations
where some convergence along the mountain ridges will allow for
storms to develop today.

On Saturday, enhanced convergence in the surface flow ahead of
the approaching cold front combined with a pre-frontal trough
pushing through NW North Carolina/eastern Tennessee, and
increased instability across the area will lead to more
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances across mountain
locations towards the afternoon and evening hours. Overall,
these storms Saturday afternoon look to have th potential to
produce some small hail and gusty winds; however, upper level
shear and deep layer instability looks to be quite limited ahead
of the approach of the cold front. This will lead to a limited
threat for severe winds and hail on Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2:  Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool
down early next week, temperatures returning to normal.

A big change to the weather pattern will occur across the
region overnight Saturday into Sunday, with the arrival of a
cold front. This cold front is likely to be the last chance for
meaningful rainfall across the region for at least a week after
its passage. Probabilities for receiving at least 0.50" of
rainfall have remained steady at to around 60-90% for areas
west of the Blue Ridge, but have increased to around 50-75% for
areas east of the Blue Ridge. This front looks to at least bring
some meaningful rainfall to the area before the region dries out
for the foreseeable future.

Cooler and drier air will advect into the region from the
northwest behind the cold front, with yet an even cooler shot of
air by the middle of next week. Temperatures fall into the 30s
each morning on Monday and Tuesday with some frost potential in
the mountains. Temperatures by Wednesday morning could be well
below freezing into the mid 20s across the mountains and low 30s
in the Piedmont areas. Given the recent warmth, some sensitive
vegetation could be impacted if preventive measures are not
taken ahead of time. With the official start to the growing
season started on April 5th for the Piedmont, frost/freeze
products may be needed for the Piedmont early next week and into
the middle of next week for that potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region through the
remainder of the afternoon, and overnight for the vast majority of
the region. However, we are expecting some MVFR status to
develop/move into our NC counties generally east of KUKF around or
just before daybreak Saturday. This MVFR cloud cover is expected to
mix out within the progression of the the morning, but with the
prevailing flow just off the surface from the southeast, pin the
cloud cover the crest of the Blue Ridge into the early afternoon.

While confidence is low, some isolated showers may dot the landscape
of parts of southeast WV this afternoon, and perhaps neighboring
counties of southwest VA. Visibilities and ceilings from these
showers are expected to remain VFR.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Just past the conclusion of the valid TAF period of 18Z/2PM EDT
Saturday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm development
is expected across mainly the mountains Saturday afternoon and
evening. These will bring of a mix of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings
to the mountains, along with some isolated and brief IFR/MVFR
visibilities under the heaviest showers/storms.

Coverage and showers and storms will trend even more robust Saturday
night and Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Sub-
VFR ceilings/vsbys will also become more common until the front
passes through the region Sunday afternoon, from west to east.

Sunday night, winds will trend gusty from the northwest with some
gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range across the mountains and 15 to 20 kt
range over the Piedmont.

Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...DS