Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS61 KRNK 100629
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
129 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence in a cold snap beginning Thursday. Wind
chills drop below 15F Friday and Saturday nights in the
mountains.

Somewhat gusty westerly winds and minimum RH values around 30%
are expected in parts of the area today. Fire weather section
added below.

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing confidence in a cold snap beginning Thursday
through early next week. Very cold wind chills possible.

2) A system brings light rain and eventually snow to the
mountains Thursday through Saturday night with gusty NW winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing confidence in a cold snap beginning
Thursday through early next week. Very cold wind chills
possible.

As a closed low takes a southern then easterly trajectory into
the Mid Atlantic towards the weekend, reinforcing cold air
waves will push temperatures down into the 30s and 40s for highs
Friday and Saturday for the mountains, while the Piedmont drops
into the 50s for highs. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s
and 30s for lows by Thursday night in the mountains, with strong
cold air advecting into the Piedmont by Friday night into early
next week. There will be several nights of hard killing freezes
beginning Friday, with even the Piedmont dropping into the
upper 20s to low 30s.

The other concern will be strong and gusty W and then NW winds
which will begin Thursday and continue into the weekend. Very
cold wind chills develop, and will be worst Friday and Saturday
nights, where parts of the mountains will drop into the 8-15F
degree range for the "feels like" temperature. While it will be
very unpleasant and a shock to the system, we will be several
degrees too warm for any Cold Weather advisories. Temperatures
rebound some early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A system brings light rain and eventually snow to
the mountains Thursday through Saturday night.

Mild WNW flow will dominate through tonight. Today and Wednesday
look like the last warm days in the foreseeable future. Spokes
of upper level energy moving around an upper low will help
trigger surface cyclogenesis over the OH and TN Valleys and
steer a system into the southern and central Appalachians
Thursday. This will trigger rain showers mainly over the
mountains but they will also be possible across portions of the
Piedmont Thursday afternoon.

Precipitation will mix with and eventually change over to light
snow as we transition into a NW upslope event that will
continue into Saturday, mainly impacting the Greenbrier Valley.
Amounts will be low each day and it will be difficult for the
snow to stick to the warmer ground initially. But as the event
continues we could see some light accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the
majority of the TAF period. Gusty west/northwest winds look to
persist through today and will become variable to calm during
the overnight hours tonight. Winds look to gust to around 15-20
knots at most terminals starting around the 15 UTC to 00 UTC
today. Otherwise, some fog will be possible at LWB 09-13Z
Wednesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Our next rain chances and likely sub-VFR flight conditions
arrives early Thursday for the mountains, with the best
chances west of the Blue Ridge for BCB/BLF/LWB. Showers linger
into Friday for the mountains, and light upslope snow is
forecast Thursday night into early Saturday at BLF/LWB,
potentially keeping sub-VFR conditions in place at those
terminals, with VFR elsewhere.

Very gusty northwest winds are expected Thursday through
Saturday in strong NW flow. Gusts will be as high as 35 knots
on mountain ridges, with gusts to 25 knots at all terminals.
Sunday looks somewhat windy with gusts 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RH values drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s
today. Westerly wind gusts up to 15 knots are forecast this
afternoon into early evening. This could make for a brief
period of enhanced fire weather conditions. This would be most
impactful in the higher elevations where winds will be highest
and where potential fire growth would be amplified in terrain
features. While tree canopies have dropped most of their leaves
and there is plenty of fuel on the ground, much of the areas
east of the Blue Ridge have not experienced a widespread
killing freeze (although they may later this week) which would
make for more burnable, cured vegetation.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...SH