Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

990
FXUS61 KRNK 111044
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
644 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Monday looks wet and cool. QPF may locally exceed forecast
totals today.

Patchy frost looks possible across the mountains Tuesday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few chances for rain this week, today and again midweek.


2. Frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning. Near to
just below normal temperatures, warming up by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few chances for rain this week, today and
again midweek.

A cold front and upper level shortwave look to pass through the
region today, bringing widespread showers with isolated thunder
chances to the region today. Surface high pressure over the
Great Lakes region today has lead to northerly winds across the
region. This cool air funneling under the shower activity today
looks to keep temperatures much colder than initially forecast
earlier in the week. High temperatures today will likely
struggle to reach the low 60s across the region.

As the pressure gradient increases across the region due to the
aforementioned surface high pressure system imposing a northerly
wind across the Piedmont, wind gusts along this frontal
boundary look to increase to 20-30 mph east of the Blue Ridge.
This surge of gusty northeast winds look to push into North
Carolina by day break.

As the aforementioned upper level shortwave rides over this
frontal boundary, high res CAM guidance and the HREF ensembles
seem to suggest that isentropic lift will aid in some increased
rainfall totals compared to yesterday`s guidance. HREF
probabilities of greater than 0.5" of rainfall are currently
sitting at 60-80% across mountain locations along and west of
the Blue Ridge. While totals east of the Blue Ridge don`t look
to be this high, they have likewise increased.

Rain looks to end by Monday evening across the area, with the
aforementioned high pressure system working its way into the
Mid-Atlantic states and settling over the region by Tuesday
morning, leading to a couple days of dry weather.

An upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system
moving through the Great Lakes region on Wednesday look to bring
shower and thunderstorm chances back into the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening along a passing cold front. Behind this
passing cold front, high pressure looks to return with dry
weather forecast through the end of the week.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning.
Near to just below normal temperatures, warming up by next
weekend.

As high pressure settles over the region Tuesday morning, clear
skies and calm winds will allow for efficient radiational
cooling across the region. This will allow for temperatures to
fall into the mid to upper 30s across mountain locations and low
40s across the Piedmont. With maximum RH values in the 80-90%
range expected across the region Tuesday morning, the potential
for patchy frost across mountain locations looks possible, with
favored locations during radiational cooling regimes like Burkes
Garden likely seeing frost. Temperatures look to rebound briefly
before another cool night is forecast for Thursday night into
Friday morning behind the second cold front passing through the
region. Beyond this last cold night with mid to upper 30s across
the mountains, temperatures look to increase quite dramatically
as we head into the weekend and next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions are slowly transitioning to MVFR and in some
cases IFR restrictions early this morning with the approach and
subsequent passage of a cold front. This will also bring
widespread rain to the area. Some embedded thunderstorms are
possible, but confidence is low on where exactly those will
develop. Expect some periods of lower visibility in areas of
heavier rain showers, and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Rain will end
west of the Blue Ridge by 19Z or so, and then ending for the
Piedmont by 22Z. All terminals will return to VFR after 20Z, and
skies should become clear in the west by Monday evening, though
some low clouds linger for KDAN through the end of the current
TAF period, 06Z Tuesday.

Clear skies and calm winds overnight look to create a perfect
environment for fog development across the area. Confidence on
intensity is low at this time; however, CAM guidance
has widespread fog developing east of the Blue ridge to impact
LYH and DAN. Some light fog was added to mountain terminals as
river valley fog will likely develop given the aforementioned
conditions and RH values expected to be in the 80-100% range.

Winds will be mostly northeast in the Piedmont, and KLYH and KDAN
may gust up to 20kts through early this afternoon with the
development of a low level jet pushing into the area from the
northeast. For the mountain terminals, excluding KROA, winds
will be north to northwesterly. KROA should see winds more
north/northeasterly. By the end of the TAF period, winds will
become 4kts or less areawide.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected areawide Tuesday into Wednesday, outside
of any morning fog that develops Tuesday morning. Showers and sub-
VFR conditions return to the area late Wednesday into Thursday with
the arrival of another cold front. High pressure for the end of
the week will bring VFR conditions back to the area for Friday,
but could again see some morning fog in the valleys. Low
chances for mountain showers/storms late Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/EB