Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS61 KRNK 192329
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
729 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498 cancelled as stronger storms exit
to the southeast.

Aviation updated for 18z.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) More strong thunderstorms are possible the next 3 days, with
Tuesday having the best chance.

2) Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the middle of the
week after a frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...More strong storms possible especially Tuesday.

Vis/IR sat showing main convection winding down in our CWA with
just some scattered cu and mid/high clouds left behind. May
still see a few showers overnight but overall the main thing to
watch late tonight will be fog/low clouds where it rained and in
the river valleys.

Previous discussion...

Elevated dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s are in place
across the Piedmont. Solar insolation increasing as earlier
cloud debris erodes. Temperatures already in the lower 90s in
the Piedmont will lead to SBCAPES over 3000 J/kg. Scattered
storm development appears likely over the next few hours.
Damaging downburst winds will be possible with this activity as
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Morning observed
soundings indicate poor mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-
level flow will diminish with southward extent. Even so, storm
coverage and potential clustering supports the severe
thunderstorm watch this afternoon east of the Blue Ridge.
Further west, a few strong storms possible with some higher
DCAPE, but earlier clouds and more showers have cooled the lower
levels briefly.

Convection should wane after the frontal passage tonight, and
there may be a lull in activity by Monday morning with some
patchy fog in the mountains. Beside fog, smoke models also
indicate wildfire smoke from Canada/MN could seep into the
Alleghanys/Greenbrier Valley late tonight into Monday.


Showers and thunderstorms appear more isolated by Monday
afternoon as they will be confined mostly to the NC/VA border
with the aforementioned cold front stalling across the Outer
Banks. Another cold front should sweep southeastward from the
Great Lakes by late Tuesday with the potential for more storms
that could bring a damaging wind gust threat. This frontal
boundary seems notably stronger and should pass across the
Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the
middle of the week after a frontal passage.

After the frontal passage on Wednesday, a considerable upper
level trough will reside across the Northeast to bring a notable
cooling trend. Dewpoints should fall into the 50s along and west
of the Blue Ridge and into the lower 60s across the Piedmont by
Thursday as high pressure takes control. Look for low
temperatures to fall close to these values during Thursday
morning and Friday morning. It will be a notable break from the
heat and humidity for the latter half of this workweek.
Temperatures should trend upward towards the weekend with
slightly higher chances of showers and thunderstorms from
diurnal heating and orographical lift.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As we head through this evening, showers fade, then stratus/fog
look to form, with higher confidence in the mountains as some
lingering mid/high level cloud cover could limit fog in the
Piedmont.

Confidence is higher for IFR or lower at LWB/BCB/BLF in the
08-12z time frame, with gradual improvement to VFR by 15z.

Best shower/storm chance tomorrow will be along/south of a TRI-
DAN line, but too scattered to have in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions should take place through most of the extended
period, but there will be sub-VFR conditions in storms with best
chance Tuesday into Tuesday night, and with any late night
fog/stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP