Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS61 KRNK 230829
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
429 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch continues until 11 AM.

Showers and storms should exit the entire area later this
afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather threat with respect to damaging wind potential
is low. Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms today
with heavy downpours possible leading to flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe weather threat with respect to damaging
wind potential is low. Still expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms today with heavy downpours possible leading to
flash flooding.

A mid level trough with embedded short wave energy was in the
process of crossing the forecast area this morning, producing
light to moderate showers. This activity will continue today,
exiting to the east by 2 pm. In the meantime, expect some
intensification of the cells during the day with thunderstorms
becoming more common after sunrise. The severe threat is over
except for the possibility of localized heavy rainfall leading
to flash flooding. This is supported by above normal
precipitable water values, which range from 1.5 inches to around
2 inches.

In the last hour, rainfall totals have been about a third of an
inch at the most, but with last night`s convection, amounts as
high as 2.25 inches have fallen in the last 24 hours,
especially over the Greenbrier Valley. An additional third of an
inch to an inch will fall between now and 2 pm. A Flood Watch
remains in place through 15Z for southeastern WV as well as
Tazewell County, VA.

Once the remnants of this system move away, high pressure will
follow and keep things dry weather-wise through Friday morning.
At that point a perturbation in the mid level flow will trigger
surface cyclogenesis over the OH Valley. A front associated
with this system will sag towards the Mid-Atlantic from the
north, and we will transition from dry weather to more active
daily showers and thunderstorms once again. Forecast integrated
water vapor transport shows a continuous slug of moisture across
the forecast area during this time. NCAR medium-range AI
convective outlooks indicates a possibility of severe weather
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as the surface front gets closer to
the forecast area. Most likely, we will be dealing with
possible damaging winds and heavy rain leading to flash flooding
once again.

After a couple more days of high temperatures in the 70s and
80s, building heights aloft will lead to temperatures mainly in
the 80s for the mountains, and the low to mid 90s for the
Piedmont Thursday through Sunday. It is possible these won`t
quite pan out however, depending on the amount of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather along a cold front and upper level disturbance
exits to the east later today. Showers and thunderstorms with
moderate rain are likely at all terminals through the afternoon
for most, but will impact KDAN perhaps into the early evening.
Low ceilings and visibilities will also follow this trend, with
lifting and scattering not expected until later this afternoon
and evening. Outside of this, fog is likely at KLWB again for
the morning hours Wednesday.

Winds increase behind the front later this morning, with speeds
between 7 to 12 kts and gusts into the 20 to 25 kt range.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expecting mainly VFR for midweek with return of unsettled
conditions by the weekend.

Beginning Thursday, and more-so for Friday and Saturday,
scattered diurnal storms will develop during the heat of the
afternoon, potentially impacting scheduled afternoon and evening
flights with turbulent conditions and brief delays. Outside of
the stormy weather, the only other major threat to flight
categories will come from early-morning mountain valley and
river fog bringing additional windows of restricted visibility.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH