Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

316
FXUS61 KRNK 012327
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
727 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Storms weakening this evening and ending overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Thunderstorms weakening.

2. Above normal temperatures and near daily chances for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms weakening.

An afternoon of mainly hailers from these storms, with one storm
near Lynchburg producing half dollar size hail but most were
half of an inch to penny size, with some accumulation in the NC
mtns. Mesoanalysis indicates airmass losing its instability, so
storms this evening should weaken and end by around midnight and
the severe threat is ending as well.

Previous discussion...

Thunderstorm activity has already been ongoing, especially over West
Virginia so far today, making its way eastward into the area. A cold
oriented southwest to northeast across the OH Valley into the
northern Mid Atlantic will sag south through the day, serving as a
focal point for continued shower and thunderstorm development.
Stronger westerly flow aloft and lift exist near the front, as shown
by slightly stronger 0-6km bulk shear on the IAD 12Z sounding
than on the 12Z RNK sounding. As such, expecting more
organization to storms farther north across northern VA,
generally north of Interstate 64. Dewpoints already in the mid
to upper 50s, some low 60s, exist around the CWA, as
southwesterly flow continues to advect low level moisture into
the region. Ample sunshine today, especially in the east, will
promote increasing instability, with forecast SBCAPE between
1500 to 2000 J/kg by the mid afternoon. This will prompt
additional thunderstorm development, but more of the pulse type
variety, mainly driven by orographic lift across the Blue Ridge
and daytime heating. Cooler air aloft supports a hail threat,
along with damaging winds, as DCAPE is forecast to near 900
J/kg. This is also shown by the CSU machine learning
probabilities, highlighting a large area of wind and hail probs
across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.

CAM guidance depicts discrete cells initially to the north,
closer proximity to the front, then becoming more like clusters
moving with the motion of the front. Can`t rule out of some of
those stronger storms reaching parts of our CWA in central VA
later in the evening. Storms arriving from the west look to
stay mostly discrete, with southwesterly storm motion. The
stronger storms could persist longer into the evening/night, but
the storms over the Blue Ridge will likely wane after sunset,
with the loss of daytime heating and instability.

One potential failure mode for storm development today would be the
cloud debris coming in from the west. This could limit the extent of
daytime heating and thus instability, there is already about a 10
degree temperature gradient from the partly cloudy skies over
southeast WV to the clear skies over the Piedmont. Storms will also
have to overcome the somewhat dry air aloft. However, thinking the
moisture advection and heating of the day will be enough to still
see storms over most of the area today.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures and near daily chances for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

A surface high will remain over the Atlantic Ocean through about the
end of the week, keeping southerly to southwesterly flow over much
of the eastern US. Slight ridging aloft and increasing 500mb heights
also point to continued above normal temperatures through at least
Saturday. The front from today is progged to waver in the vicinity
of Mid Atlantic. This pattern will result in near daily chances for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorm, especially over the
mountains, until the end of the week.

A change in pattern is in store late in the weekend into early next
week. A strong cold front will cross the area around Sunday, and an
upper trough will dig southward into the eastern US. Cooler and
drier air will fill into the area, bringing cooler temperatures,
though closer to seasonal normals, maybe even below normal by the
middle of next week. There is over a 50% chance probability for over
0.5" of precipitation along and west of the Blue Ridge with the
front.

With the drier air coming in, relative humidities fall into the
upper 20% to low 30% range for Monday. Though with the post frontal
winds will be gusting up to 20 mph in the west, they don`t look to
coincide with the lowest relative humidities. However,
depending on how the rainfall pans out to dampen the already dry
fuels, may see some increased fire weather concerns next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will be the prevailing situation at most TAF
sites through Tuesday afternoon. Cannot rule out a few
showers/rumble of thunder out toward LYH/ROA, with potential
sub-VFR vsbys.

Overnight may have some fog with 3-5sm vsbys but low confidence.

A few showers/storms possible Thu afternoon but much less
coverage than today so no mention in the tafs.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms may affect
mainly the mountain TAF sites generally between 18 and 03Z
again Friday with sub-VFR conditions. Conditions should return
to VFR once convection ends each night. By the weekend however,
coverage of showers/storms increases and could result in MVFR or
lower conditions at times. The cold front should move through
Sunday night, coincident with very gusty NW winds.

Monday should return to VFR except potential sub-VFR cigs linger
in the WV mtns.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP