Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

092
FXUS61 KRNK 051121
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation update; otherwise, there have been very few changes to
the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wavy frontal boundary will keep light rain in the mountains
periodically through Friday. Above normal temperatures continue.

2) Chances of showers may arrive later this weekend and also
during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A wavy warm frontal boundary will keep light
rain in the mountains periodically through Friday. Above normal
temperatures continue.

A warm front primarily draped north of the region across the
Mason Dixon line is expected to primarily stay north of the
region today; however, it may try and sag south across the
Piedmont Friday night into Saturday as a quick moving high
pressure system moves across the Northeast leading to this
back-door front introducing some cooler temperatures and thick
clouds sliding down the east side of the Appalachians.

While the frontal boundary will primarily remain north of the
area today and Friday, some shower activity looks possibly
across the I-64 corridor; however, chances will remain minimal.

Additional forcing for ascent and increased moisture will arrive
to the area on Friday; however, Saturday night will bring the
higher chances for precipitation as the front makes its approach
to the region. Overall, only light totals are anticipated with
this front as much of the best forcing for ascent lifts well
north of the region.

Temperatures will generally remain well above normal, with near
record temperatures possible on Friday and Saturday. Expect
highs in the low 70s west of the Blue Ridge to low 80s east of
the Blue Ridge, and warm lows in the 50s areawide.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Chances of showers may arrive later this weekend and also
during the middle of next week.

A cold front that will slowly push south through the region on
Sunday looks to stall south of the area across North and South
Carolina. As the frontal boundary pushes through Sunday, the
area will have the greatest chance of widespread rainfall as it
dives south and east. As the front passes the region into the
Carolinas, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the VA/NC
border will likely develop on Monday afternoon. Additional upper
level shortwaves will push through the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday, which will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

An upper level cut-off low that is progged to develop across
Baja California and Mexico this weekend looks to eject east
sometime towards the Thursday and Friday timeframe next week.
These systems are notoriously difficult to time out as model
guidance varies when it will be influenced by the northern jet
stream. As of right now, ensemble clusters vary slightly on the
exact details of this upper level cut-off low ejecting east, and
will likely need to be monitored over the next few days. Once
this upper level low does push east, the region will likely see
a more significant rainfall across the area by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

IFR to LIFR Fog has developed across LWB, LYH, ROA, and BCB
early this morning, and will likely continue to spread across
mountain valleys through the remainder of the early morning
hours, before dissipating by the 13-14 utc timeframe. These
restrictions at are expected to linger through the remainder of
the early morning hours, with VFR conditions likely returning
shortly after sunset. For terminals that are not impacted by
river valley fog this morning, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. Winds will generally remain out of the southwest
through the TAF period at around 10 knots or less. Wind gusts of
15 to 20 knots can be expected through the afternoon hours at
all terminals today, but these wind gusts should diminish by the
evening hours around sunset.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A wavy frontal boundary will keep light rain in the mountains
periodically through Friday, with limited chances for sub-VFR
conditions mainly for BLF and LWB. Higher and more widespread
chances for rain, sub-VFR conditions, and perhaps thunderstorms
arrive Saturday into Sunday with a cold frontal passage. Some
rain chances linger into Monday. Nightly chances for fog will
also be expected, as warm, humid air surges into the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB