Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

486
FXUS61 KRNK 281025
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
625 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain and a few isolated rumbles of thunder possible this
morning. Thunderstorm potential continues on Wednesday.

Confidence continues to increase that temperatures near freezing
will occur on Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning and
again on Wednesday. Another chance of rain arrives by Saturday.

2) Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the week with near
freezing temperatures possible in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms are possible this
morning and again on Wednesday. Another chance of rain arrives
by Saturday.


A decaying line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will
arrive early this morning. Lack of instability will prevent this
line from maintaining itself and a steady weakening trend should
continue. Expect clouds to linger through much of the morning
with some gradual clearing by the afternoon hours.

Next chance of rain arrives on Wednesday associated with a
surface low passing to the northwest across the Ohio Valley
region with a trailing cold front extending south into the
southeast states. Warm, moist air will advect north, along with
sufficient shear and modest instability, which will support
thunderstorm development. If instability potential is fully
realized, could have isolated severe storms by Wednesday
afternoon/evening. However, the biggest uncertainty and limiting
factor will be decaying morning convection that moves in from
the Ohio Valley which could impact daytime heating, thus
limiting destabilization and subsequent storm development. The
forecast area remains highlighted in a Marginal Risk, with the
main threat being damaging winds.

Current rainfall totals today through Wednesday night range
from about 0.50 inches east of the mountains to around an inch
in western Virginia and southeast West Virginia. While this will
certainly be beneficial rainfall, it will not bring an end to
the ongoing drought as the entire region still remains about
four inches below normal since the beginning of March.

Another opportunity for rain comes on Saturday with another low
pressure system moving through the southeast states. Varying
solutions in the models do not give any confidence on amounts
just yet, but the potential continues to increase for at least
another round of rainfall for the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the
week with near freezing temperatures possible in the mountains.

A cool airmass arrives behind a passing low pressure system on
Saturday, with an increasing potential for frost across the
mountains by Sunday morning. High pressure settling overhead
and clearing skies favor temperatures falling into the low 30s.

Since the growing season has begun and we will have recently
received the first decent rainfall in April, this cold air is
something to monitor for those with agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mixed flight categories this morning as a line of showers and
embedded storms continue to progress through the region. Should
see gradual improvements through late morning with all terminals
returning to VFR.

There could be some wind gusts up to 20kts out of the southeast
this morning for BLF/LWB, but after the front passes later in
the day, winds will be out of the west to southwest up to 10kts.

Overnight, could have some areas of fog, particularly at
BCB/LWB/BLF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain and thunderstorms possible again on Wednesday.

Winds should turn towards the northwest by Wednesday night into
Thursday and may become gusty. Some upslope showers and MVFR
ceilings may linger for BLF and LWB into Thursday morning, but
all locations should return to VFR by Thursday afternoon as high
pressure returns. The next chance of showers could come by late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG/PW/VFJ