Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

062
FXUS61 KRNK 271020
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation update.

- Fire weather concerns increase behind the front through the
  weekend with dry air advecting into the region Saturday and
  Sunday, and windy conditions forecast early Saturday.

- Wind gusts of 35-45 mph possible along ridgetops early Saturday
  morning.

- Wind chills in the teens and 20s likely Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front to bring in rain for Friday, followed by gusty
conditions and drier and cooler air.

2) Warming trend next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold front to bring in rain for Friday, followed by gusty
conditions and drier and cooler air.

A cold front is still expected to cross the region today from the
northwest. Recent CAM guidance has now shifted the bulk of the rain
from this system to affect the Piedmont of VA and NC. Reflectivity
from these models suggest a small pre-frontal band (possibly due to
daytime heating) and a line of showers that arrive with the front
will both intersect this part of the region. This brings rainfall
totals of 0.25-0.50" for areas east of the Blue Ridge with higher
amounts up to 0.65". Another maxima of precipitation totals will be
on the windward side of the Appalachian mountains where 0.25-0.35"
are forecasted. In between these geographic locations, there is dip
in precipitation totals of around 0.05-0.25" likely due to some rain
shadowing. There is more confidence in the frontal line of showers
occurring than the surface heating based storms, but afternoon
highs in the Piedmont will likely get into the upper 70s to
lower 80s before the front powers through.

Friday and Saturday will each have their own wave of wind gusts.
Friday`s winds will be from the cold front and from the
west/northwest. A westerly low level jet accompanying the front
will bring 30-40 mph wind gusts along and west of the Blue
Ridge and especially across the Appalachians. After the front
moves through, a messy northerly 850mb jet forms over southwest
VA early Saturday morning. These winds will be more
perpendicular to the mountains and result in slightly stronger
wind gusts of 35-45 mph at higher elevations along and west of
the Blue Ridge. With these winds and the cold air that is
introduced, wind chills Saturday morning may be as low as the
teens to mid-20s. Winds will calm down by Saturday night as the
center of an approaching surface high pressure system moves over
us.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend next week.

The cold and dry conditions will not last as another
warming/moistening trend revives next week. A large mid-level ridge
will move eastward into the Gulf, but recent models show this may be
more southward which will result in more zonal 500mb flow than
southwesterly. A 850mb high pressure system is still projected to
move across the Deep South and into the Atlantic. By the middle of
next week, it will be positioned to support southwesterly winds in
our vicinity to send warm and moist air from the south and the
Gulf. Dew points should recover back into the 40s and 50s and
air temperature highs will likely be back into the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LLWS due to a LLJ of around 40 knots is expected to continue at
all terminals through 12 to 13 UTC this morning before surface
winds pick up enough across the region at the surface to
decrease LLWS.

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue through the
remainder of the overnight hours at all terminals. MVFR CIGs are
expected to make their way into the region ahead of an
approaching cold front during the mid morning hours at BLF and
LWB, before progressing east to all other terminals by the 18-21
UTC timeframe. IFR to brief periods of LIFR restrictions look
possible at BLF and LWB after the 15-18 UTC timeframe, and after
the 21-00 UTC timeframe for all other terminals.

Scattered rain showers look to move in with the front by the mid
morning and early afternoon hours at all terminals. Some showers
may lead to a few rumbles of thunder, which look to mainly
impact terminals like KDAN during the afternoon and early
evening hours. By the 03-06 UTC time window, the front and all
remaining showers are expected to be well south of the region. A
wind shift out of the northwest/north is expected at all
terminals during this timeframe, and wind gusts are also
expected to pick up to around 20-25 knots. These gusty winds
look to continue at all terminals through the morning hours on
Saturday before finally diminishing throughout the late morning
and early afternoon with high pressure settling over the region.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

With high pressure building in behind the cold front, VFR
conditions are expected to return for the remainder of the
weekend. Quiet weather continues until the next chance of rain
and sub-VFR conditions, which arrives Monday into Tuesday,
mainly for areas west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Possible fire weather concerns Saturday through Sunday...

Saturday looks like more of a concern, with NW winds gusting 20
to 30 mph (higher on ridges), and minimum RH values dropping
into the 15 to 25 percent range Saturday afternoon. Parts of the
VA and NC Piedmont are forecast to receive the least amount of
rainfall, and if this occurs fine fuels like dead grass and
leaves may be ripe for burning. Fortunately, the timing of the
strongest winds looks to be during the early morning hours.
Winds are expected to diminish throughout the mid morning and
early afternoon hours before minimum RH values truly bottom out
across the region. Nonetheless, burning is discouraged unless
done by a trained professional on Saturday.

Winds will be SSW and lighter Sunday, however RH values will
remain in the 10 to 25 percent range, so it has the potential to
be an elevated fire weather day as well.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...EB/SH
FIRE WEATHER...SH