Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS61 KRNK 101756
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1256 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update Below.

The weekend system looks warmer, and we should see primarily rain,
with snow mixing in for the highest elevations and perhaps the
Shenandoah Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Passage of a cold front will bring light rain and snow late
tonight into Wednesday, along with gusty winds. Temperatures
return to near normal for the rest of the week behind the front.


2. A system will bring mainly rain on Saturday night through
Monday morning. This along with the moisture from snowmelt
earlier in the week will make for plenty of mud. Snow may mix in
for the higher terrain and the Shenandoah Valley, but impacts
will be relatively low.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Passage of a cold front will bring light rain and
snow late tonight into Wednesday, along with gusty winds.
Temperatures return to near normal for the rest of the week behind
the front.

A low pressure system currently analyzed over the Great Lakes, with
an attendant cold front from the Midwest into the southern
Plains will continue to trek eastward through today, the cold
front crossing the area tonight into tomorrow. Warm air
advection ahead of the front will boost temperatures well into
the 50s today, low to mid 50s in the west, and upper 50s to low
60s in the east. Combined with the mostly clear skies and
plenty of sunshine, expect significant melting to occur across
the area, especially in the Piedmont, where current snow depth
is only an inch or two.

Light rain will accompany the cold front, highest chances for the
mountains and in the NC Piedmont. Rain looks to reach southeast WV
before midnight tonight, then spreading to southwest VA and
northwest NC, with slight chances for rain reaching the NC Piedmont
by daybreak tomorrow. Flow turns northwesterly behind the
front, and upslope snow showers will linger into tomorrow
afternoon for the Greenbrier Valley. Downsloping and drying
winds will help to quickly clear out the clouds from east of the
Blue Ridge.

A tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and
incoming low will also lead to increasingly gusty winds, especially
for the mountains tomorrow afternoon, in the 30 to 40 mph range,
but below advisory criteria at this time. An 850mb jet also
crosses the area tonight associated with a weak shortwave,
ahead of the main upper trough, so will see some gusty winds
over the ridges in northwest NC this afternoon, up to 35 mph or
so.


Key Message 2: A system will bring mainly rain on Saturday night through
Monday morning. This along with the moisture from snowmelt
earlier in the week will make for plenty of mud. Snow may mix in
for the higher terrain and the Shenandoah Valley, but impacts
will be relatively low.

On Saturday, increasing positive vorticity advection will cross the
forecast area in strengthening westerly flow. An upper low over TX
will begin to close off as it moves towards GA/FL. An elevated warm
front enters NW NC and SW VA from the SW during the day, with
precipitation spreading east and north gradually. While the main low
pressure system stays over the Gulf Coast states, the aforementioned
elevated warm front and an inverted trough will spread precip
over the entire region by Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure wedging in the northeast may act to suppress or slow
precipitation development in the Shenandoah region initially.
Isentropic lift begins to shift south again by late Sunday into
Monday morning, bringing an end to most precipitation.

As far as p-type, warm cloud depths look to extend to 5kft during
the day, meaning a mostly rain event. Areas where the wedge lingers
as well as elevated mountain locations will see snow mixing in
Sunday and Sunday night. We may also see some freezing drizzle in
the Greenbrier Valley early Sunday morning, before the dendritic
growth zone becomes saturated. At this time, the 50th percentile for
48 hour QPF amounts are about three-quarters of an inch in SW WV,
and closer to an inch or more in SW VA and NW NC. If any locations
remain all snow, we could see an inch or two of snow for the
mountains before warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday melt it.
This along with the moisture from snowmelt early in the week will
make for a muddy time.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The area is under mostly VFR conditions, though SCT to BKN
clouds below 3kft are entering the area from the southwest.
Expect low clouds to continue filling into the area, and
bringing MVFR ceilings to all terminals west of the Blue Ridge
by 00Z Wednesday or so, then lowering further for KBCB, KBLF
and KLWB before 06Z, with the arrival of a cold front and rain.
KLYH and KDAN will remain VFR, but with BKN to OVC skies
between 06Z and 16Z, before downsloping and drying winds help
the clouds quickly clear out.

Rain will reach SE WV by around 03Z Wednesday, then spreading
southward into NW NC by 06Z, and into the NC Piedmont before
daybreak. Precipitation looks to move through the area fairly
quickly, moving southeast and out of the area not long after
12Z. Lingering upslope stratus will remain over KLWB and KBLF
until almost the end of the current TAF period, ending at 18Z
Wednesday.

A westerly 850mb jet crosses the area late tonight, resulting in
LLWS of 35 to 45 knots for the western terminals and KDAN
between 02Z and 10Z Wednesday. Gusty northwesterly winds between
20 to 30 knots will develop for the TAF sites with the passage
of the front and persist through Wednesday afternoon/evening.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds turn NW with the passage of a cold front Wednesday,
becoming stronger with gusts to 25 to 35 kts through Thursday
morning. Expect some light rain showers Wednesday morning, with
flurries possible downstream towards BCB and ROA through
midday. All sites should be VFR most of Wednesday outside of
southeast WV, but possible sub-VFR upslope clouds return to the
mountains after Thursday 00Z.

Mid and high clouds move in during the day Thursday and Thursday
night ahead of the next weather maker but we should be mainly
VFR during this time with the exception of lower stratus near
BLF and LWB. By Friday, expect sub-VFR conditions with rain and
snow possible mainly along and south of a line from Bluefield to
Roanoke to Danville. Precipitation chances increase for the
weekend along with increasing chances of sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...AS/EB