Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KRNK 142324
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
624 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening Update: Aviation discussion updated

Afternoon Package: Most of the area is looking to get about 1
inch of total rainfall Sunday into Sunday night and a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall covers the southeast majority of the
CWA. Mid-week looks to be trending significantly warmer with a
potential for showers.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rainfall expected Sunday.

2) Trending significantly milder with the potential for showers
mid- week.

3) Still above normal heading into the weekend with
yet another potential round or two of showers, but with low
confidence on the details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread rainfall expected Sunday.

A southern stream upper low is progged to traverse the southeast
CONUS drawing ample Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into the
area for Sunday into Sunday night. The good news is that thermal
profiles suggest a decently warm lower layer so this should largely
be an all liquid p-type event except for a few higher elevation
locations in the far north that might have a little onset snow or
sleet but should also transition to rain shortly after. The gradient
of QPF looks to have lessened from north to south and a general 1 to
1.25 inch storm total is forecast. WPC still has a portion of our
area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and some locally
higher amounts could result in urban and small stream flooding
but overall it should be a welcomed rain since we have been in
drought conditions. If any upstream convection gets organized in
GA or the Carolinas, then this could choke off some of the
moisture transport and result in some lower values in the
southern CWA. Any instability looks to be little to nil so no
thunderstorm development is forecast.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending significantly milder with the potential
for showers mid- week.

On Monday, an upper level ridge axis is expected to be centered over
central CONUS. As we progress into mid-week, this axis is expected
to shift east, becoming centered over our region by Wednesday
morning. A northern stream shortwave trough is expected to progress
east through the northern extent of this ridge, by Thursday morning.
The bulk of this feature`s lift and moisture looks to remain north
of the region. However, the southern extent of this feature may
impact mainly the mountains with some isolated to scattered
rain showers for Wednesday night and Thursday.

In the lower levels, the prevailing flow will be from the southwest
to west, with increasing 850mb temperatures. Values will trend
upward through mid-week, reaching values of +8C to +10C, oriented
north to south across the region by mid-week. Values of this range
this time of year fall within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-
year CFSR climatology.

The above scenario brings us to our forecast of temperatures
trending to well above normal (perhaps 15 to 20 degrees above) by
mid-week. Isolated to scattered showers are expected for mainly the
mountains Wednesday night and Thursday.


Key Message 3: Still above normal heading into the weekend with
yet another potential round or two of showers, but with low
confidence on the details.

Models are still offering a secondary shortwave trough following the
first one this weekend. An associated cold front is expected to
cross our region, with a slight downward trend in temperatures
expected and potentially gusty winds behind the front. The question
though remains the timing of this feature and the associated
sensible weather. Current model guidance places the frontal passage
as early as Friday evening or as late as Sunday morning.

Our consensus forecast will offer a frontal passage late Friday
night into Saturday morning. This blend solution keeps temperatures
well above normal through Friday night. For Saturday, a cool down is
expected with temperatures closer to normal for the mountains on
Saturday. The Piedmont region can expect values five to ten degrees
above normal. Showers will be probable across primarily the
mountains Thursday, with better coverage for all areas immediately
ahead of the front on Friday. Coverage wanes post-front on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Initial VFR conditions should decrease to MVFR late tonight
into Sunday morning with an increasing chance for rain and
reduced VSBYs, then cigs reducing to IFR/LIFR for Sunday and
possible further reduced VSBYs as rain continues into the
evening. Winds generally light to calm overnight, then becoming
mainly light SE to east during the day Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Precipitation moves east of the area Sunday night.

VFR conditions develop Monday and last through Wednesday. The
exception will be some upslope rain showers and borderline MVFR
ceilings in the mountains Wednesday.

Winds will generally be light and variable through Tuesday, as
a surface frontal system stays south of the area and high
pressure builds in. By Wednesday, increasing SW winds may become
gusty to 25 knots as a weak system passes by.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB/DS
AVIATION...RCS