Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

603
FXUS61 KRNK 070645
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
245 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast, with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances continuing through next week.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather will persist for the next 7 days at least.
Greatest chance for rainfall will be over the mountains and
adjacent foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
1) Unsettled weather will persist for the next 7 days at least.
Greatest chance for rainfall will be over the mountains and
adjacent foothills.

Sub-tropical high pressure remains parked over the western
Atlantic  through this weekend, although it is gradually
squashed as the upper level trough axis over the central states
shifts east. By mid week, we will be further ensconced within
the mean trough as the main storm track builds south. There will
be no cold frontal passage anytime soon to scour at high
moisture content over the Mid Atlantic. Through the weekend and
all of next week, expect daily showers and thunderstorms. The
main forcing mechanisms, especially through Monday, will be
differential heating and interaction of the southerly moisture
fetch with the mountains and foothills. For this weekend
however, Saturday looks to have the highest chance for more
widespread convection, with a surface trough in the region.
Overall though, with weak low level lapse rates and shear,
storms should be disorganized and on the weaker side. Main
concern will be flash flooding, and with slow storm movement,
any locations that receive multiple rounds of showers/storms may
experience flash flooding.

As high pressure off the coast dips in latitude, winds gradually
veer with more of a westerly component developing beginning
Sunday into next week. So while we will still have heavy
rainfall and the threat for flash flooding, the winds being more
parallel to the terrain helps lower that threat somewhat. The
severe threat, however, has the potential to increase, with a
higher chance for a few strong mid level waves moving our way
beginning Tuesday and beyond, after a mostly down day as far as
rain on Monday. So, the threat for damaging wet microbursts
begins creeping back up Tuesday onward.

High temperatures warm up slightly going into next week, with
upper 70s to upper 80s for the mountains and foothills, and
mid 80s to mid 90s for the Piedmont. Overnight lows will be
about 3 to 5 degrees above normal with plenty of cloud cover and
moisture around.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In general, expect VFR conditions, outside of scattered
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA bringing brief MVFR or lower
conditions, and overnight/morning fog and lingering stratus
bringing patchy LIFR/IFR conditions. Convection coverage looks
highest for the mountain terminals today between 15Z and 00Z.
KLWB looks to be impacted by dense fog this morning and again
tonight into Saturday morning.

Scattered overnight valley fog possible elsewhere again
overnight tonight, especially in locations that receive rain
this afternoon and evening.

Light southwest winds are forecast for today, sustained at less
than 10 knots, with a few gusts to 15 knots for the Piedmont.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend
with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with
greatest concentration within the mountain valleys. Winds veer
more westerly during the daylight hours beginning Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas near
the Blue Ridge and westward the next two days, then for parts of
the western mountains of NC and VA Sunday. Repeated chances of
showers and thunderstorms amidst a moist air mass will persist
the remainder of this week. Not a lot of confidence in the
details for any particular location, but mountains will
encourage training storms.

PWAT values are expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range.
High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall
rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour, and storm motion
will be 20 mph or less. Urban areas and along mountainous
terrain will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding.

Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across
the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits
across the Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
HYDROLOGY...SH