Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS61 KRNK 310542
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
142 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes. Forecast On-track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures mid-week through the start of the
weekend with rounds of showers and storms, with the best coverage of
precipitation across western and northern parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temperatures mid-week through
the start of the weekend with rounds of showers and storms, with
the best coverage of precipitation across western and northern
parts of the area.

As the week progresses, the center of surface high pressure
will transition eastward, reaching western portions of the
Atlantic basin. Its location to our east, combined with periodic
troughs/lows progressing through central CONUS, will provide
for a south to southwest flow across our region. This wind
trajectory will help usher moisture from the Gulf of America and
much milder air into and across our region. The latest output
from the NAEFS depicts 850mb temperatures across the region
within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year CFSR
climatology. Likewise, Precipitable Water values Wednesday
through Saturday are expected to be around or a little over 1.00
inch across the area, or on most days, within the 90 to 97.5
percentile of the 30-year CFSR climatology.

During the week, low pressure systems and/or troughs are expected to
progress through central CONUS, and then follow the northwestern
extent of the ridge axis into the Ohio Valley. Days when this looks
the most probable to occur, and also the most probable to help
provide showers and/or storms to the greatest amount of the forecast
area, include Wednesday and Friday. Saturday looks to have only
slightly less coverage as compared to Friday. After today, Thursday
looks to have the least coverage.

On Sunday, a strong cold front is expected to cross the area, and
bring showers and storms to the entire region. Behind the this
front, look for a change of airmass which will bring cooler and
drier into the region early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the period with some scattered to broken ceilings in
the 4-10kft range during the afternoon. Isolated showers with
less than 20 percent of a thunderstorm possible this afternoon
across the mountains, but not enough coverage to place in the
TAFs. Winds will be out of the southwest today at 5-10 kts with
gusts 14-18kts this afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
While VFR conditions should hold for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, the chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase for Wednesday through Saturday with
higher coverage Wed/Sat and less Thu-Fri. Sub- VFR
ceilings/vsbys may accompany any of the showers or storms. A
southwest wind could gust up to 20 knots each day during this
timeframe.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...PM