Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS61 KRNK 101853
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No change to forecast. Best chance of rain expected with the
passage of a front Sunday. Marginal threat for excessive
rainfall and isolated severe weather expected through the
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Unsettled weather expected through the weekend.

Message 2: Drying trend expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Unsettled weather expected through the weekend.

Strong storms with isolated damaging winds/localized flooding
possible this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.
Better rain coverage associated with cooler temperatures is
expected Sunday.

A mid-level shortwave is moving across the forecast area
resulting in scattered to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Best CAPE and DCAPE resides over the piedmont,
so if there is anything severe would think the piedmont would be
the place to watch for the stronger storms through this
evening. Main hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts.
Mean winds are out of the west at 25 kts, so storm cells should
be moving along quickly with low residence times. As such do not
foresee flooding to be the primary threat.

After the passage of the mid-level shortwave this evening,
should see a lull in the activity overnight with fog and stratus
developing after midnight. A cold front dropping south from the
Great Lakes and Ohio valley will be the next feature to watch
for later Saturday, and more so into Sunday as this feature
combines with the passage of an upper level trough Sunday. For
Saturday we will still be on the warm side of the front, so think
we heat up again and go through another cycle of scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

By Sunday the front will either be overhead or just south of the
forecast area. This will put us on the cool side of the front
with over-running lift resulting in an abundance of cloud cover,
prolific showers, and embedded thunderstorms.

Key Message 2: Drying trend expected next week.

The front exits south next week with high pressure building in
from the north. We may see lingering cloud cover and showers
Monday, but after that a 5h heat dome builds across the
northern/central plains and will extending east into the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians by Tuesday. The ridge splits
off over us midweek, then a deeper trough digs into New England
by the end of the week. This set-up will put us in mainly hot,
dry west-northwest flow, temperatures heating up again for
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level disturbance crossing the mountains will enhance
the shower coverage this afternoon. Expecting scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through sunset, then
diminishing with loss of daytime heating. Mean wind is from west
to east at 25 kts...so expect showers to be transient with fast
churn with respect to surface conditions. Using tempo groups for
all Tafs with respect to brief periods of IFR due to the passage
of the showers and storms.

There may be some lingering showers overnight, but not including
within the TAFs attm. Do expect an abundance of low level
moisture, leading to areas of status, fog, and multilayer clouds
above that.

Confidence is higher for sub-VFR at LWB/BCB with period of dense
fog likely for both terminals due to better radiational cooling
withing the mountain valleys where these airports are located.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the
Sunday with greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening.
Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all
possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also
likely during the overnight periods, especially where
significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog
will burn off quickly after 13Z daily.

Drier conditions are expected Tuesday through the end of next
week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM