Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

262
FXUS61 KRNK 040646
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast except to lower rainfall
amounts in the Piedmont.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rainfall tonight then more scattered Thursday into Friday

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday, returning
to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rainfall tonight then becoming more scattered
Thursday and Friday

Low pressure over the upper Midwest will occlude by Wed
evening. A front moves slowly east toward the coalfields of KY
this evening while southeast to south flow increases into the
southern Appalachians. Models are still favoring showers
developing as early as mid afternoon in the NC mountains then a
broken line of showers moves in from WV/KY. As far as
thunderstorms, could see enough instability for a few in the far
southwest VA area toward Marion/Chilhowie this evening. Better
support for thunderstorms will reside further southwest into
the TN Valley and Smokys. The best chance of rain will be in the
mountains to Blue Ridge then more scattered in nature east of
Lynchburg and Danville tonight.

A brief lull then occurs on Thursday, despite the front still
remaining off to the west, due to drier air across the area. A
slight chance of showers remains possible, before another
disturbance dives down around the upper-level trough and interacts
with the cold front over our area Thursday night into Friday
morning. Models have shifted the better rainfall just east of us
Thu night into Friday but still think enough lift with the low
pressure to the south to have likely pops in the Piedmont.

Rain totals mainly vary from a quarter to half inch, with less
over the foothills of VA, an more across the NC mountains and
portions of WV.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through
Friday, returning to near normal this weekend.

As high pressure continues to shift offshore into the Atlantic,
southerly flow will return to the Mid-Atlantic, causing temperatures
to be well above normal for this time of year. High temperatures
through the end of the week will be in the upper 60s for the
mountains, and mid to upper 70s in the Piedmont. A few spots could
even reach 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday, which is about 15
degrees above normal. Behind the cold front, temperatures "cool"
back off to only slightly above normal, with highs mainly in the
60s, with upper 50s for the highest elevations.

Overnight lows will also be very mild through the end of the week,
in the 50s/60s Wednesday night. By Saturday night, overnight lows
fall into the 30s area-wide, which is around normal. This continues
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Going to see potential fog to low clouds from the Blue Ridge
east tonight as low level flow off the Atlantic brings moisture
in. Confidence per sounding forecasts leaning higher toward fog
vs stratus, and potential exists for some vsbys to drop to 1sm
at LYH/DAN.

Further west, should be VFR.

Any fog/stratus should rise to VFR by 14-15z. Front approaching
brings increase VFR cigs through the day lowering to MVFR in the
west after 00z, with showers moving in.

Southeast winds will be light/calm except gusty around BLF
through most of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will sweep from west to east across the region
into Thursday, spreading widespread rainfall along its path and
likely dropping flight conditions below visual thresholds. Even
after the boundary pushes through, lingering showers will
persist on Friday to keep overcast skies and periodic flight
restrictions in place. The damp weather will finally surrender
to drier air by Saturday, allowing skies to clear just in time
for a pleasant, calm weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB/WP
AVIATION...PM/RCS/WP