Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXUS61 KRNK 030015
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes in headlines, but put out a Special Weather Statement
to account for light icing potential along the Blue Ridge
Parkway.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A light wintry mix will bring nuisance traveling issues to
the Alleghanys of VA over into WV through early Tuesday morning.

2) Expect a pattern change to much warmer temperatures with
increasing chances for showers by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A wintry nuisance in the Alleghanys of VA into
WV, with rain elsewhere.

Evening RNK sounding indicating +5 deg C warm nose at 850 MB.
This should ensure liquid form of precip from here on out...with
mainly rain in the lower elevations and some freezing rain along
the east face of the Appalachians from VA/WV north. In general
temperatures have remained above freezing for elevations under
2500 feet and near or just below freezing from Roanoke north.
Remaining concern is for some icing at these higher elevations
with a glaze on tree limbs and elevated surfaces. Any icing on
the ground should be minimal with bridges having the greatest
potential for freezing, the air passing underneath the
structures allowing pavement to freeze. The ground itself is not
froze so little accumulation if any expected on the ground.

Expecting nearly steady temperatures overnight, warm air
finally winning out for Tuesday, temperatures trending warmer.
Should see rain start to taper off from the south drizzle late
tonight but linger through mid morning across the I-64 to
central VA piedmont corridor.

Models tend to scour out wedges too fast, but do see potential
for some clearing toward the Mountain Empire into the NC
mountains and as far north as US 460 by late Tue afternoon.
Still undercutting NBM and MOS in the wedge tomorrow with upper
40s to mid 50s for most, except upper 50s to lower 60s far SW
VA.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures with chances for
showers for late week into the weekend.

Ensembles show ridge building over the southeast as wedge breaks
by Wed morning with warm front north across PA/Ohio, with nearly
stationary front southwest across the lower Missouri Valley.
With the negative PNA (Pacific-North America teleconnection) pattern
setting up, expect troughiness in the west and ridge into the
east, and this will bring stronger southwest flow into our area
leading to highs soaring into the 70s Thursday into early next
week. Would not be surprised to see some records broken as these
temps are more like mid May values.

With the increasing moisture, shower chances will start to
increase by the weekend as the trough axis shifts a little east
pushing the front toward the Ohio Valley, but indications
suggest most of the widespread showers will stay along/west of
the Appalachians in our area, with more scattered activity east.
Though models are leaning toward less thunder, would not be
surprised to have a few storms develop as dewpoints increase
into the 50s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aviation conditions will deteriorate this afternoon with most
having ceilings drop to lower end MVFR into IFR by 0z. Some
wintry mix at ROA/BCB/LWB, hanging more toward LWB into tonight
while change to all rain at ROA/BCB by 21z. Icing will be an
issue just above the surface as a cold pocket hangs in place
especially north of a HLX-LYH line into southeast WV.

Expect sub-MVFR tonight with rain except freezing rain at LWB
tapering off or to drizzle by 12z Tuesday. Some increase in
ceiling heights are likely by late in the period mainly from
BLF-ROA southwest to TRI.

Overall, winds stay northeast to east, except southeast at BLF
this afternoon, then should gradually shift over to the south to
southeast late in the period, and mainly staying under 10kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Aviation conditions gradually improve by Tuesday night with
mainly VFR expected Wed-Sat. A few showers will be possible
across the BLF-LWB corridor Wed-Fri increasing slightly east by
Saturday though outside of any showers or late night fog, should
be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ011-
     018>020.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PM