Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

849
FXUS61 KRNK 071034
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
634 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z aviation update.

Increasing confidence of beneficial rainfall entering the area
over this coming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather prevails for the rest of this week
with warm above normal temperatures. Next rain chance comes
this weekend from a potential tropical system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather prevails for the rest of this week
with warm above normal temperatures. Next rain chance comes
this weekend from a potential tropical system.

High pressure will continue to slide east into the Atlantic
today and flow becomes more west-southwest oriented. This will
continue into the end of the week, resulting in above normal
temperatures into the mid/upper 70s and some lower 80s. Along
with warm above normal temperatures, dry and mostly clear
conditions will also persist through Friday.

Attention then turns to the Gulf over the weekend with model
guidance now coming into better agreement of a tropical system
making landfall along the Gulf Coast and then moving north
through the lower Mississippi Valley region and ultimately
through the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Confidence continues to
increase that a period of areawide rain will fall beginning
Saturday, continuing into Sunday. Overall, rainfall appears to
be beneficial given forecast amounts of 1 to 2 inches falling
over a 48 hour period...therefore flooding threat appears to be
low at this time. However, favorable southeast flow, given the
current forecast track, may allow for localized higher amounts
along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.

Rain appears to be the greatest threat, but some gusty southeast
downsloping winds possible along favored western slopes from the
Mountain Empire of Virginia northward into southeast West
Virginia. There is the potential for gusts ranging from 25 -
35mph late Saturday night through Sunday.

Overall, with this system still not developed yet, this portion
of the forecast for the late weekend still remains uncertain
and low confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through tonight.
Exception being LIFR fog at LWB and brief fog at BCB through
13z this morning and again tonight after 06z.

Winds less than 10kts from the west-southwest...calm again
tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure will keep VFR conditions through Saturday morning.
The lone exception will be patchy river valley fog at BLF and
LWB during the early morning hours. Winds should turn to the
northwest on Thursday as a front passes to the north. By
Saturday, clouds will increase from the southwest as high
pressure departs and moisture arrives from the Gulf to provide
rain and sub-VFR conditions for Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG