Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KRNK 291819
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.

Warmer weather returns, and we will see increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning mid week through next
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer weather expected all week; from mid week beyond we
will see periods of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer weather is expected all week; from mid
week beyond we will see periods of showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will shift offshore tonight,
transitioning the region to SW flow. This pattern will favor
warmer weather for the rest of the week, peaking at 70s and 80s
for highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing rain chances and
plenty of cloud cover will lower high temperatures a bit for the
remainder of the work week.

We could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday, mainly for the mountains, with passing short wave
energy providing lifting for ascent. After that, expect quiet
weather until low pressure begins to organize over the Southern
Plains and into the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. The primary
warm frontal boundary looks to stay over or just north of us,
and we will be located in a broad warm sector through at least
through Saturday. The warm moist air in place and increasing
convective triggers will mean scattered showers and
thunderstorms areawide at times from mid week on. A closed upper
low/mean trough that was previously stalled offshore in the
Pacific NW will begin to move steadily east by the end of the
week, and this will finally push the cool front through the Mid
Atlantic region sometime late in the weekend or possible next
Monday. We should see drier weather after that. Unfortunately,
it is hard to pinpoint timing and amounts for scattered
convection this far out, so we will have to see how the pattern
evolves before providing more details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist at all airports through at least
30/15Z. After that time, clouds will lower, especially in the
north, with upper level energy bringing a chance for showers.
These rain chances expand to the rest of the mountains by later
morning into the early afternoon with some sites dropping to
MVFR. Showers will diminish in the evening.

Southerly winds with gusts to 15-20 kts today will diminish to
4-8 knots tonight. By 30/15Z, winds veer more to the SW with
occasional gusts to 20 knots during the day tomorrow.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Clouds will remain in the mountains with skies clearing east of
the mountains Monday night. On Tuesday, there will be a chance
for sub- VFR conditions in -SHRA and perhaps -TSRA mainly west
of and the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours. From mid week
through next weekend, chances of showers and sub-VFR conditions
will increase, as a low pressure system nears from the west.
Winds will be out of the southwest and may gust up to 20 knots
each afternoon through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Fire Danger Statement in effect...

Fire weather concerns are elevated through this evening due to
relative humidities in the 15 to 25 percent range and gusty
winds. Recent dry conditions have allowed fine fuels like grass
and leaves to become more susceptible to carry fire. Fire
weather concerns are forecasted to ease for Monday as winds from
the Gulf coast region will bring slightly higher humidity.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...SH