Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS61 KRNK 261810
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
210 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation forecast updated.

Confidence continues to remain elevated in widespread rainfall
on Tuesday and Wednesday, with up to half an inch to an inch of
rainfall currently forecast areawide between the two days.
Rainfall totals will continue to change as the forecast for this
system gets closer in time.

Patchy fog looks possible once again Monday morning across the
area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

KEY MESSAGE 1:
There will be a few opportunities for precipitation this week as
we transition to a more active weather pattern. Higher
confidence in a Tuesday/Wednesday event providing some
meaningful rainfall, and low confidence in precipitation later
in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: There will be a few opportunities for
precipitation this week as we transition to a more active
weather pattern. Higher confidence in a Tuesday/Wednesday event
providing some meaningful rainfall, and low confidence in
precipitation later in the week.

The region looks to remain dry through Monday as upper level
ridging and surface high pressure linger over the eastern Conus.
An upper level shortwave and associated surface low pressure
system look to lift through the western Great Lakes region on
Monday. By Tuesday morning, the remaining cold front looks to
approach the region during the late morning and early afternoon
hours allowing for some surface instability to develop. This
will help storms produce some rainfall across the area, with
mountain locations expected to see higher totals on Tuesday. A
secondary upper level shortwave looks to push through the
Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana on Wednesday, which will help
deep a surface low that looks to track through Ohio. With upper
level forcing much closer to the region on Wednesday, more
widespread rainfall is expected, with 0.5" - 1.0" of new
precipitation forecast between Tuesday and Wednesday. While this
won`t bust the drought across the area, it is certainly
beneficial rainfall and will help local agriculture to start the
growing season.

Behind this surface low pressure system, upper level troughing
looks to settle across the region through the end of the month
and into early May. This looks to potentially bring some light
rain chances to the area on Friday and Saturday as shortwave
perturbations in the much larger upper level trough swing
through the area. This upper level trough also looks to bring
temperatures back to seasonal to below normal values for this
time of year. Overall confidence on placement of these
shortwaves and where rainfall may be produced remains low at
this time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

With the previous system out of the area, flight rules are
heavily dependent on cloud ceilings for the rest of the day.
Low level clouds along and east of the Blue Ridge continue to
keep KDAN, KLYH, and KROA sub-VFR with some heights below 1000
ft. Continual daytime heating should gradually erode the cloud
cover and return all terminals to VFR status by late afternoon.
Patchy fog may redevelop overnight tonight and into Monday
morning for most airports. Patchy fog confidence is highest east
of the Blue Ridge as this area is projected to have the
lightest winds and few/scattered cloud cover. KLWB stands out as
it may have visibilities as low as 2 miles due to easterly
winds bringing in clouds with ceilings below 500 ft. Another
exception is KBLF which may avoid patchy fog as its overnight
winds of 5-10 kts may promote enough mixing to prevent its
formation. Otherwise, once the sun rises Monday morning, all fog
will dissipate and it will be clear skies for the region.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Higher pressure remains for a short while to keep skies mostly clear
and VFR with another chance of patchy fog Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Another frontal system will bring in a chance of
precipitation as early as Tuesday morning and sub-VFR conditions.
The rain chances do not decline until Thursday, but small (20-30%)
daily chances of precipitation remain until the weekend. Otherwise,
the front will bring winds from the northwest and lead to some gusts
of 15-25 kts.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...CG