Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS61 KRNK 141831
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
131 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Uptick in wind speed has led to decrease in wind chills.
Strong enough wind gusts for wind advisory for the southern Blue
Ridge tonight-Thu morning, and cold enough wind chills for cold
wx advisory for the NC High Country/Grayson Highlands tonight-
Friday morning.

For the weekend system GFS has trended snowier across the area,
especially the Piedmont, but still low confidence on this
system, as models/ensembles differ.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic front pushes through this evening, rain changing to
snow

2) Strong shot of wind gusts this evening post-frontal and again
Thursday morning.

3) Bitterly cold wind chills through Friday morning.

4) All eyes on possible winter storm by this weekend.

5) Cold weather to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic front pushes through this evening, rain
changing to snow.

Have delayed precip per radar trends til later this afternoon.
Colder/arctic air resides over the lower Ohio Valley/Midwest,
with the zero 8h line now entering the KY/WV border. Still looks
like rain will quickly change to snow showers early this evening
in the mountains. Snow squall parameters start to ramp up in the
00z-03z time frame from far SW Va into southeast WV, so will
have to watch for heavier bands of snow. Overall forecasted snow
amounts look reasonable but wold not be surprised that more than
6 inches falls at a few ridges like Mt Rogers/Beech
Mountain/Burkes Garden area per some of the higher-resolution
models. Wind will be picking up so blowing snow also will be an
issue with reduced visibilities. The wind blown snow will also
make it difficult to measure.

There will be 1-5 inches in western Greenbrier and up to 1-2
inches along the western slopes south into NC, except 3-6"
possible above 4500 feet. Could see a dusting as far east as the
New River Valley into the Alleghanys.

Upper trough looks deeper and lends to snow showers/flurries
lingering into Thursday, with flurries potentially as far east
as the Piedmont.

No changes to winter weather advisory but will likely issue a
Special Weather Statement to cover the rain changing to snow and
temps falling this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong shot of wind gusts this evening post-frontal and again
Thursday morning.

Low level jet 34-45kts along with 6hr pressure rises of 4 to 7mb
as well as somewhat lowering inversion and strong shot of cold
advection all lead to wind advisory gusts likely in the
mountains of NC into the Blue Ridge of VA as far north as Floyd.
There are some higher peaks along the Blue Ridge further north
as well as the Alleghanys in WV/VA that could see gusts over 45
mph but just isolated spots. With that went with wind advisory
from Watauga northeast along the Blue Ridge to Floyd. Will see
strong gusts behind the arctic front initially later this
evening then off and on strong gust into Thursday morning.
Overall looks like strong pressure rises head east by midday
Thursday, but still expect blustery winds into Thu evening.



KEY MESSAGE 3...Bitterly cold wind chills through Friday
morning.

Have added the NC High Country/Grayson to the cold wx advisory
as the stronger winds will send apparent temperatures down to -5
to 14F late tonight through Friday morning. The cold wx advisory
for western Greenbrier remains as is.

Other higher locations like Burkes Garden and Mountain Lake may
see wind chills around -5F or colder as well, but most of the
rest of the mountains will be in the +5F to -4F range. -5F being
the criteria for cold weather advisories in the mountains. Wind
chills east of the mountains will be in the teens.

KEY MESSAGE 4: All eyes on possible winter storm by this
weekend.

Another mid-level trough will dip southward towards the Gulf of
America later this week. While this will allow for additional cold
air to persist, a surface low tags along from the south and
potentially amplifies as it heads northeast along the Atlantic
Coast. Combined with a large low level cutoff low over the Great
Lakes, southwesterly winds will bring in moisture into the states
along the Atlantic Coast as the surface low moves northeast. While
some model guidance suggest this has potential to become a
Nor`easter for the New England area, it may still be just east of us
to not provide any significant impacts. Given the freezing
temperatures and the southward dip of the trough, any type of
precipitation from this system will likely be snow. At the time of
this forecast, the most likely area to see snow would be in central
VA and eastward with accumulations around one inch. This system
is a lot stronger in recent models than 24 hours ago so it will
be heavily monitored for any changes as a subtle move west
could potentially bring a lot more snowfall to the area.

KEY MESSAGE 5: Cold weather to continue into next week.

After the weekend system passes, a dry cold front moves through
early next week and keeps conditions cold. The 540 thickness line
remains below the Mid-Atlantic for most of the forecast period.
Gusty winds of 25-35 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge will
follow the front and bring frigid wind chills. Along and west of the
Blue Ridge, wind chill values in the single digits are possible and
below zero at higher elevations. East of the Blue Ridge, wind chill
values will likely be in the teens for a few mornings next week.
High pressure is forecast to follow the front resulting in
relatively benign weather for the rest of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions look to continue through this evening before
increased coverage of rain and snow showers lead to lowering
CIGs and VSBYs at LWB and BLF during the early evening hours.
Sub-VFR cigs should make it as far east as ROA/BCB with flurries
possible later this evening. Will see snow showers/flurries at
BLF/LWB til end of the taf period along with MVFR cigs and at
times vsbys.

LYH/DAN should be mainly VFR.

The winds will pick up behind the arctic front this evening and
gusts 20-35kts likely especially across the ROA/BCB corridor and
higher smaller airports/helipads like GEV/TNB and HLX. The
blustery winds will persist through the end of the taf period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Snow showers/flurries taper off Thu afternoon with BLF/LWB
increasing to VFR. Blustery winds likely through Thu evening.

VFR conditions are expected into Friday. Another weak system
moves into the area Friday night into Saturday, again bringing
snow chances mainly to the mountains, which would lower flight
conditions to sub- VFR, with potential for snow areawide Sunday
and sub-VFR. Temperatures for much of the period will be below
normal. Monday appears VFR except some lingering sub-VFR across
BLF/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     VAZ015>017.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
     for VAZ015.
NC...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     NCZ001-002-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
     for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for WVZ508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP