Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

938
FXUS61 KRNK 031242
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
742 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled Winter Headlines as temps are rising above freezing
and precip is ending.

Aviation Update.

Previous Discussion:

A wintry mix will continue into the morning today for higher
terrain peaks along the Blue Ridge; however, a transition to all
rain will occur by the mid morning hours for any linger showers
that do move across the region. A warming trend will kick off
starting Wednesday across the area, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday through early next week. These showers and
thunderstorms look to remain isolated in nature at this time

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers this afternoon mainly along and north of I-64,
and along I-77 in VA/WV.

2)  Warming trend to follow with additional chances of
precipitation later this week.

3) Warm weather continues, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms daily through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Drying but a few more showers possible this
afternoon across the I-64/I-77 corridor in VA/WV.

Temperatures start to warm well above freezing today. Radar
showing precip ending and have cancelled the winter weather
headlines.

Warm front to our north with wave along it may bring a few more
showers to WV/Alleghanys this afternoon, while the wedge
gradually erodes, with sunshine returning to the southwest
forecast area (NC mountains/foothills into the Mountain Empire,
some of the New River Valley) this afternoon, with temperatures
warming into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend to follow with additional chances of
precipitation later this week.


A high pressure system in the Atlantic at 850mb will transport
warmer and moist air to the region. This will begin a warming trend
that raises air temperatures and dew points each day. The effects
will be felt as early as this afternoon due to a warm front as highs
will be in the 50s and 60s. Later in the week, highs will raise into
the 70s and even the lower 80s in the Piedmont. Dew points will
climb back into the 40s and 50s. There will be a few additional
chances of precipitation during the week but any precipitation
will be just rain. The first chance will be by this afternoon
thanks to the warm front, though the highest likelihood will be
north and in the counties of Greenbrier, Summers, Monroe, and
Bath. The warm front may become stationary and wiggle around
close to our forecast area, extending the chance of
precipitation for the same areas into Wednesday. Thursday may
have a small break, especially if the front retreats further
north, but a mid-level shortwave will arrive towards the end of
the work week to provide another round of showers for the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm weather continues, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms daily through the weekend.

Overall grand ensemble clusters are in agreement of the formation
of an upper level cut-off low across Baja California and Mexico
by Saturday and Sunday this weekend. While these types of
systems typically lead to uncertainty in the forecast, most
guidance mentioned above show this upper level feature
developing during the aforementioned time period. With an upper
level cut-off of trough of this magnitude remaining quasi-
stationary across Baja California and Mexico, it will
essentially maintain the southeast ridge that is expected to
develop Wednesday this week. The overall consensus for
temperatures to remain above normal is high at this time given
this pattern; however, the frequency and locations of
precipitation will be slightly less certain as we look at the
forecast through the weekend.

Pieces of shortwave vorticity from this upper level cut-off low
look to become stuck in the northern stream as the low cuts off,
and in doing so trek eastward over the aforementioned southeast
ridge. The placement and intensity of these shortwaves and any
surface features is yet to be snuffed out, and will come with
future forecast updates; however, confidence is moderately high
that given the influx of moisture from the Gulf combined with
anomalously high daytime temperatures, there will be some
afternoon instability that isolated showers and thunderstorms
will likely develop Saturday through Monday for portions of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are currently being observed across
the region this morning at BCB, LYH, DAN, ROA, and LWB. BLF is
currently reporting VFR conditions as southeasterly winds have
allowed lower CIGs to clear out at BLF. These restrictions at
all other terminals look to linger through at the afternoon and
evening hours today before slow clearing from the southwest
occurs as the wedge finally starts to erode across the region.
Some MVFR CIGs may return towards the end of the TAF period
early Wednesday morning as a warm front settles across central
West Virginia today. Icing concerns across the regional
terminals has diminished as many terminals are reporting
temperatures just above freezing this morning.

Northeast winds this morning look to quickly transitions to
southerly/southeasterly winds by the mid morning hours today.
These winds will generally remain sustained around 5-10 knots
across the region, with gusts up to 15 to 20 knots for mountain
terminals, and 10 to 15 knots for Piedmont terminals.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Aviation conditions gradually improve by Tuesday night with
mainly VFR expected Wed-Sat. A few showers will be possible
across the BLF-LWB corridor Wed-Fri increasing slightly east by
Saturday though outside of any showers or late night fog, should
be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/EB/WP
AVIATION...EB