Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS61 KRNK 101739
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
139 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Rainfall amounts trended upward slightly for Sunday/Monday system,
up to a third to half inch possible, mainly along the
Alleghanys of VA into WV and possibly the Blue Ridge, with much
less to the south and east.

Frost potential in the mountains Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few chances for showers this week, Sunday night/Monday and
again midweek.

2. Frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning. Near to
just below normal temperatures, warming up by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A couple of opportunities remain for showers this
week.

Frontal boundary shifts from the central Appalachians and TN
Valley east to the coast by Monday. A wave or two of low
pressure along with some upper support should bring scattered to
numerous showers to the mountains this evening, as well as a few
rumbles of thunder. Best forcing will be late tonight into
Monday morning where coverage of showers will increase. Monday
should be mainly cloudy in the morning with sunshine at least
making it to the mountains in the afternoon. Showers will be a
bit more scattered in the Piedmont and into NC.

Went cooler than model blend Monday given cloud cover and
northerly component to the wind behind the front, with 50s in
the higher ridges to lower to mid 60s elsewhere. May reach the
upper 60s in the NC Piedmont.

Any showers will quickly come to an end for the Piedmont by dusk
Monday evening as the front moves away from the area. Another
front approaches the area by the middle of the week to bring
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms, as a
surface low moves into the Great Lakes region. Initial rainfall
amounts look to be light again for this system, but could be
locally heavier in thunderstorms. Again, this rain will be
beneficial for the area, but just a drop in the bucket in
relation to helping the drought conditions.

High pressure returns to the area by the end of the week,
promoting dry weather Thursday and Friday. Low chances for
mountain showers/storms over the weekend, with a weak shortwave
moving in from the west, but doesn`t look like widespread
coverage at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost possible in the mountains Tuesday morning.
Near to just below normal temperatures, warming up by next
weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the front Monday, with a colder
airmass moving into the region. Clearer skies overnight and light to
calms winds will mean a good set up for radiational cooling, and
could see some frost in the mountains, mainly the Greenbrier
Valley and other sheltered mountain valleys Tuesday morning.
Will mention potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and may
need a frost advisory if trends continue to show lows in the
lower to mid 30s and light winds late Monday night.


Behind the next frontal passage, Thursday will have highs in
the upper 50s in the higher elevations, mid 60s elsewhere in the
mountains, and low 70s for the east. After that, warming
temperatures are expected, rising to near to above normal by the
weekend, with high pressure returning the region and some weak
500mb ridging developing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with some high scattered cu this afternoon. West
winds may gust 15-20kts, then lighten this evening.

A few showers/isolated TSRA may approach LWB/BLF this evening
but lower confidence so have kept out of TAFS. Late tonight,
front arrives with showers and sub-VFR cigs/vsbys reaching
BLF/LWB in the 07-09z time frame, then BCB/ROA by 08-11z, and
less coverage east but thinking at least high end MVFR cigs at
LYH/DAN near end of the taf period. Ceilings in the mountains
are expected to drop to under 1kft at times especially BLF in
the 09-15z time frame then rise back to MVFR to VFR by 18z
Monday.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions look to return late Monday into Tuesday and
linger across all terminals until another frontal boundary
arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday morning bringing
another round of possible showers and sub-VFR conditions for all
area terminals. High pressure returns Friday with VFR outside
any fog potential Friday morning in the valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP