Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS61 KRNK 271951
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
251 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisory for tonight for the Alleghany Highlands
and Greenbrier Valley.

In general, cold weather with below normal temperatures will
persist the remainder of week. Model signal is still there for
additional snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining cold with mountain snow showers and flurries
tonight and again Wednesday night.

2) Chance of snow increases areawide for Friday and Saturday
along with another surge of arctic air for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining cold with mountain snow showers
and flurries tonight and again Wednesday night.

Several reinforcing shots of cold air are expected through the
week. A very dominant northern stream will provide for some weak
to moderate frontal passages during the week, the first coming
through from the northwest tonight. These features are moisture
starved, so except for some clouds and upslope snow showers and
flurries, the biggest by-product will be the wind. Gusty
conditions will lead to low wind chills, especially at night
with single digit and sub single digit readings. Wind chills as
low as minus 10 will be possible overnight for the VA Highlands
and into the Greenbrier Valley...warranting a cold weather
advisory, and this may need to be issued again for Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Any accumulating snow tonight and
Wednesday night will fall primarily along the western slopes,
along and west of the Appalachian Divide. This means western
Greenbrier down through areas west of I-77 and into the
mountains of NW NC may see a dusting to an inch of new
snow...with flurries as far east as the Blue Ridge.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of snow increases areawide for Friday
and Saturday along with another surge of arctic air for the
weekend.

The models continue to signal the development of low pressure
developing near the North Carolina Coast Friday into Saturday.
There are still some inconsistencies with the exact track of
this coastal system due to subtle disagreements involving a
shortwave trough diving southward during this timeframe. This
trough should deepen and become a closed upper level low
somewhere over western South Carolina. The natural baroclinic
zone between the Arctic air to the west and the warmer waters of
the Gulf Stream to the east will help to rapidly intensify the
surface low. Some moisture may advect northwestward towards the
Appalachian Mountains as the surface low develops, thus
warranting at least a chance of snow areawide by Friday night.
From that point it will be a race to see how much moisture gets
drawn westward from the Atlantic as the Low begins to gain
latitude along the coast. Until this can be resolved by the
shorter range models will not be projecting any snowfall
amounts. That said, we will maintained a heightened risk for
significant weather within the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but
not just for snow. Of greater certainty will be the surge of
arctic air on the backside of the developing cyclone.

Arctic air amidst a frigid northwest flow is forecast regionwide
this weekend. Wind gusts may get close to advisory criteria
along the southern Blue Ridge by Saturday night into Sunday, but
wind chill values will become the most significant concern.
Based on these strong winds and low temperatures falling into
the single digits for most locations and possibly below zero
along the higher elevations, wind chill values could fall
towards -5 to -10 degrees in the Piedmont and -15 to -20
degrees along and west of the Blue Ridge. Even wind chill values
down to -25 degrees may be possible for the higher peaks of
western Greenbrier County WV, Mount Rogers, VA, and Beech
Mountain in NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across the region. This should be the
pattern through at least early this evening. Increasing
coverage of MVFR cloud layers or cigs across the SE WV
mountains is expected by the late evening through the overnight
hours. Light snow showers or flurries are expected across this
region, and potentially east into neighboring portions of SE VA
and also south into the mountains of NW NC. Some of the heavier
snow showers may yield brief sub-VFR vsbys. The sub-VFR
conditions are expected to end by daybreak Wednesday.

Winds will remain gusty from the west to northwest with surface
gusts of 15 to 25 kts common across the mountains and foothills
into and through the the overnight hours. Piedmont areas will
likely lose gusts after sunset, but regain them by mid-day
Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
night.

Pockets to areas of sub-VFR conditions return Friday night
through Saturday night with snow expected for parts of the
region as low pressure tracks northeast along the east coast.

Winds on the backside of departing low will increase from the
northwest by Saturday night and remain gusty through the day
Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Wednesday for VAZ019-020.
NC...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Wednesday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...DS