Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXUS61 KRNK 272342
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
642 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic region today will shift east
tonight in advance of an approaching cold front. This front,
and its associated showers, will cross the region on Monday.
Behind the front, temperatures will fall rapidly and winds will
become very gusty, and remain gusty through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Mild conditions continue into Sunday.

2. Cloudy for the entire region on Sunday, but with some patchy
light rain over parts of North Carolina.


Quiet weather evening thus far, with only some passing cirrus
observed at this time. Cloud cover will increase throughout the
night, but still should have enough time for enough radiational
cooling to drop low temperatures into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wedge today allowed for a sharp temperature gradient, with a
high temperature of 69 degrees at Roanoke, 21 degrees above
normal, and only 53 degrees in Lynchburg, 6 degrees above
normal. Still on track for another unseasonably warm day
tomorrow, though not quite as warm as today, under plenty of
cloud cover.


Previous discussion below...

As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

As the night progresses, as the center of the high and its
ridge axis shifts east, flow into our region will trend more
southeast. This will help advect Atlantic moisture into the
region, upslope on the east side of the Appalachians. The result
will widespread cloud cover development starting after roughly
midnight. This will be the pattern into and through Sunday as
well, with also the potential for some patchy light rain over
parts of North Carolina.

The location of the backdoor cold front and the current dew point
field across the area will play a big role in the expected low
temperatures. Values will range from as low as the mid 30s over
Buckingham, VA to as mild as near 50 near both Richlands, VA and
West Jefferson, NC. A swath of lower 40s is expected, and will
include locations such as Reidsville, NC, Roanoke, VA and,
Lewisburg, WV.

For Sunday, flow will trend southwest, and allow for warm air
advection in advance of an approaching strong cold front. Despite
plenty of cloud cover, high temperatures on Sunday will still be
above normal for this time of year, and range from the upper 40s for
areas generally near and east of Lynchburg, VA to as mild as the
lower 60s for Bluefield, WV and Richlands, VA.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Very strong cold front to impact the region on Monday and bring
in significantly drier and colder air.

2) Gusty winds of 40-50 mph possible along and west of the Blue
Ridge.

A strong cold front is still forecast to pass through the region
Monday. A pressure gradient will start to build up early Monday
morning and winds will pick up from the southwest. Temperatures
will still be on the "warmer" side Monday morning until the
front pushes through. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of
25-30 mph arrive around this time but as the front moves
through in the afternoon, winds will drastically change in
direction and speed. By Monday evening, winds will be from the
northwest and perpendicular to the mountains, resulting in
greater wind gusts along the ridgetops. In addition, a spatially
large and strong 850 mb low level pressure system over the
Great Lakes will assist in delivering the stronger gusts at
higher elevations. The wind gust profile will be different
between each side of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Breaking it down:


Along and west of the Blue Ridge:

Point 1 - Peak sustained winds of 15-25 mph and wind gusts of 30-50
mph possible.

Point 2 - Higher gusts possible at top elevations.


East of the Blue Ridge:

Point 1 - Peak sustained winds of 10-20 mph and wind gusts of 15-25
mph possible.


The surface low responsible for the cold front will continue to
intensify and move northeast while a large surface high pressure
system moves southward to our west. Our region will be squished
between these two systems and a pressure gradient will remain
in place and keep winds elevated. While winds won`t be as
extreme as when the front first moves through, they will still
gust between 20- 30 mph later in the week. To summarize, winds
will increase in magnitude by Monday, reach their peak Monday
night into Tuesday, and begin to decline by Thursday.

The winds will deliver colder and drier air. Dew points crash into
the single digits and teens and temperatures get as low as the teens
and 20s by Tuesday morning. Since winds will be at their peak during
this time, wind chills are likely to be in the single digits and
teens with just below zero values at higher elevations. Temperatures
may recover a little during the week but highs will only be in the
30s and 40s.

Lastly, precipitation potential has downtrended in recent model
data. While a line of storms is expected to travel ahead of the
front, it looks to break down as it heads into the Mid-Alantic. Rain
will be limited to the western mountainous counties and any
precipitation that makes it across the Blue Ridge will leave a trace
at best. There is a small chance of some snow/freezing rain mixing
in but confidence is low. More than likely, the dominant
precipitation type will be rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Wind to calm down.

2) Temperatures to remain on the colder side.

The pressure gradient over the area will gradually decrease as a
surface high to our southwest weakens and a surface low to our
northeast moves away. Winds, as result, will finally calm down
in the latter half of next week. Temperatures will recover
slightly but still remain in the colder side with highs in the
30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and teens. Dew points also
recover into the 20s but may be brought back down by another
cold front late next week. The new air mass will be more dry
than cold, but may bring in a chance for upslope snow.
Considering how far away the time of arrival for this system is,
confidence on this part of the forecast is low.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail so far this evening, with some upper
level cirrus passing across the area. Increasing moisture into
the area via the east to southeasterly flow through the
overnight hours will result in an increase in cloud cover to BKN
to OVC, and ceilings will lower considerably into the MVFR to
IFR range after 06Z Sunday, then at or below 1kft by 12Z for
terminals along the Blue Ridge, like KBCB and KROA. KLYH will
likely see these ceilings a few hours later. Ceilings at KBLF
and KLWB will stay between 1kft to 2kft until at least 18Z
Sunday, when ceilings will lift west of the Blue Ridge. Around
that same time is when ceilings at KDAN will fall to IFR, and
will remain so through the end of the current TAF period.

Patchy fog will develop during the overnight and early morning
hours, highest confidence for KBCB and KLWB, but should diminish
by 14Z or so Sunday.

Slight chance for scattered rain showers in the VA Southside and
NC Piedmont, though uncertain if precipitation will impact KDAN,
and thus have opted to left out of the KDAN TAF at this time.

Winds become southerly for most by 18Z Sunday, but still
expected to remain less than 10 knots.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will bring rain, and sub-VFR conditions, to the
area Monday, with a transition to snow showers or a rain/snow
mix in the west late Monday.

Confidence is increasing for windy conditions behind the cold
front, with models indicating 50-60kt winds just above the
surface for Monday and Monday night, and 40-50kts Tuesday. This
will most likely lead to an extended period of moderate to
severe low level turbulence within the vicinity of the
mountains...Monday through Tuesday.

High Pressure passes south of the area Wednesday, still
promoting brisk west winds, but not nearly as strong as Monday
and Tuesday. Latest guidance suggests 30-40kts just above ground
level.

Winds weaken briefly on Wednesday, only to increase again on
Thursday in advance of potentially our next weather maker.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AS/DS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS/DS/PM