Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS61 KRNK 031822
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
122 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Afternoon aviation update.

Lowered temperatures a few degrees for this afternoon due to partial
cloud cover over the Piedmont.

High confidence in rainfall occurring Wednesday through Friday,
though highest amounts now have shifted to the Piedmont with the
second disturbance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through Friday as
multiple disturbances move through the area.

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday, returning
to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through
Friday as multiple disturbances move through the area.

A low pressure system currently in the Great Plains will move into
the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. The accompanying upper-level
trough will weaken and retreat north, causing the highest chance of
rainfall to be limited to along/west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday
night. Ahead of the front, southerly winds will drive in moisture
and warmer temperatures, and with the trough moving through late
Wednesday, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the western
mountains.

A brief lull then occurs on Thursday, despite the front still
remaining off to the west, due to drier air across the area. A
slight chance of showers remains possible, before another
disturbance dives down around the upper-level trough and interacts
with the cold front over our area Thursday night into Friday
morning. This will trigger redevelopment of showers and potentially
some thunderstorms along the frontal boundary and move east into the
Piedmont, bringing some much needed rain to the area.

Rain totals will be highest in the western mountains of North
Carolina and West Virginia from the first disturbance, and in the
eastern Piedmont with the second wave of rain. Totals in those areas
will be up to 1.0", with higher amounts possible in any
thunderstorms. The I-81 corridor will essentially miss out on the
heaviest rainfall in both waves, with totals expected to be around a
quarter inch. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out Wednesday
night into Thursday in the North Carolina mountains, but the risk is
low.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through
Friday, returning to near normal this weekend.

As high pressure continues to shift offshore into the Atlantic,
southerly flow will return to the Mid-Atlantic, causing temperatures
to be well above normal for this time of year. High temperatures
through the end of the week will be in the upper 60s for the
mountains, and mid to upper 70s in the Piedmont. A few spots could
even reach 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday, which is about 15
degrees above normal. Behind the cold front, temperatures "cool"
back off to only slightly above normal, with highs mainly in the
60s, with upper 50s for the highest elevations.

Overnight lows will also be very mild through the end of the week,
in the 50s/60s Wednesday night. By Saturday night, overnight lows
fall into the 30s area-wide, which is around normal. This continues
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the region will move offshore tonight. This
will allow for southerly return of moisture into the region in
the form of a layer of strato-cu. This cloud element will favor
VFR cloud bases initially, then trend into MVFR category for
Wednesday. Increasing dewpoints will support light fog or mist
overnight and early Wednesday.

Winds will remain light, under 10 kts east of the mountains
through tonight. However, an increasing pressure gradient along
the western slopes of the Appalachians will result in
increasing wind speeds over and west of the mountains Wednesday.
Wind gusts of 18-23kts will be common at KBLF after 08Z/3AM
Wednesday.

Confidence in the forecast is high, except for the fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will move from west to east across the forecast
area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall
and likely sub-VFR flight conditions. Rain chances linger
behind the front on Friday, keeping a chance of sub-VFR
conditions around before clearing back out for the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...PM