Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS61 KRNK 131028
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
628 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation update.



&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Look for possible record highs Wednesday.

2) Front arrives Thursday with mainly a mountain threat of
showers/few storms, followed by a pattern changing front Friday
to cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Possible record highs Wednesday.

Look for 5h heights to build head into midweek with westerly
flow aiding in heating up the lower levels. Highs Wednesday are
likely to reach close to or even exceed records. See climate
section below.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Front brings mainly mountain showers/storms
Thursday followed by a stronger front Friday with airmass change
for the weekend.

Upper ridge starts to flatten ahead of a front Thursday. Models
are in agreement that the mountains will be having a better
probability for having measurable showers/few storms compared to
the Piedmont.

A few storms Thursday afternoon could be strong mainly north of
I-64. Daytime heating combined with boundary- layer dewpoints
in the mid 60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets
of moderate instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg
by mid-late afternoon ahead of the cold front.

The main front tracks across Friday and will bring shower
chances over the mountains but should be fairly dry with limited
moisture east of the mountains. West to northwest winds should
be gusty behind the front as temps drop from the 70s/80s Friday
to the 40s and 50s Friday evening.

There could be as high as a 20 degree temperature difference
between Friday and Saturday as Saturday afternoon highs may only
get into the lower 50s to lower 60s. Sunday morning, so far,
looks to be the coldest with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
in the mountains. This could be the first freeze of the season
for the mountains with frost in the Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any fog lifts by 13-14z with VFR through the period.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Other than some brief late night/early morning river/valley fog, VFR
conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday night.

Thursday into Friday, a cold front will make slow progress into and
across our region. Look for a return of scattered showers and some
pockets of some sub-VFR conditions, primarily across the mountains.

Breezy/wind behind the front Friday night into Saturday
returning to VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs possible Wednesday October 14th.

SITE       RECORD HIGH/YEAR      FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE        86/1941                  88
LYNCHBURG      85/1985                  87
DANVILLE       87/1940                  89
BLACKSBURG     84/1962                  82
BLUEFIELD      82/1954                  79

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...DS/JCB/WP
CLIMATE...WP