Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS61 KRNK 050030
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
730 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wavy frontal boundary will keep light rain in the mountains
periodically through Friday. Above normal temperatures continue.

2) Chances of showers may arrive later this weekend and also
during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:

A baroclinic zone was draped across northern sections of the
forecast area, and will continue to bring periodic light
showers to areas mainly north of I-64 through tonight. After
that, we should remain dry, with the Western Greenbrier Valley
possibly seeing a few more showers tomorrow night into Friday
morning. QPF should be between a quarter inch or more for the
Greenbrier Valley.

Additional forcing for ascent and moisture arriving ahead of a
cold front Friday and Friday night will increase rain chances
for areas west of the Blue Ridge. Only light rainfall amounts
expected.

Temperatures will be warm Thursday through Saturday as heights
rise,  although periods of cloud cover could bring readings
down some. Expect highs in the low 70s to low 80s, and warm lows
in the 50s areawide.



KEY MESSAGE 2:

A cold front will cross the Ohio River Valley on Saturday and
bring showers to the Appalachian Mountains. Because there may
be some instability with temperatures in the 70s ahead of this
approaching front, the chance of thunderstorms are not out of
the question for areas west of the Blue Ridge. The showers
should linger into Saturday night as the convection wanes with
the loss of heating. The cold front should continue eastward on
Sunday to push the shower and thunderstorm chances into
Southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont. By Monday,
the frontal boundary should dissipate, while high pressure
offshore will continue to bring a warm southwest flow. Although
Monday and Tuesday appear drier overall, low chances of showers
could remain during this timeframe. Another cold front may enter
from the west towards late Wednesday to bring the next notable
threat of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Some fog again tonight, especially in favored mountains
valleys. Highest confidence at LWB after midnight and through
just after daybreak. VFR expected through this evening and again
all day tomorrow after any morning fog dissipates. Winds
light from the southwest, but could have an occasional gust
above 10 kts at the higher elevations.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A wavy frontal boundary will keep light rain in the mountains
periodically through Friday, with limited chances for sub-VFR
conditions mainly for BLF and LWB. Higher and more widespread
chances for rain, sub-VFR conditions, and perhaps thunderstorms
arrive Saturday into Sunday with a cold frontal passage. Some
rain chances linger into Monday. Nightly chances for fog will
also be expected, as warm, humid air surges into the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...SH