Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS61 KRNK 171855
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased cloud cover for tonight per debris blow off from storm
activity over the Mid-west and Ohio Valley.

No change to hazards for Thursday other than to introduce fire
weather awareness for mainly the NC piedmont where fire danger
will be the highest Thursday afternoon per combination of
extremedrought coupled with the hottest temperatures and breezy
conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe storms possible Thursday into Thursday evening. Breezy
ahead of the front as well with increase fire danger for the
NC piedmont.

2) Dry weekend followed by more chances for showers/storms
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe storms possible Thursday into Thursday
evening. Breezy ahead of the front as well with increase fire
danger for the piedmont.

Concern next 24 hours is evolution of upstream thunderstorm
activity over IL/IN and any downstream impacts which may take
place prior to the arrival of a cold front late Thursday.
Ongoing activity is casting a cloud shield downstream and this
debris cloudiness may thicken across our forecast area tonight.
Of more importance will be the ability to generate instability
Thursday given the thicker cloud cover. Assuming we can get
enough solar contribution Thursday, the day will likely be
active with respect to severe weather per timing of the cold
front which will arrive during a time of peak heating.

Synoptically, A potent upper trough and associated mid-level
jet streak will move into the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday
morning. A deep surface low moving through southern
Ontario/Quebec will drive a surface cold front southeast and
into or forecast area during the day...arriving across the
northern portions of the CWA during the afternoon and then into
the southern parts of the CWA Thursday night. The remnants of
what is now Tropical Storm Arthur will continue through parts of
the Southeast states with some indirect influence with respect
to generating cloud cover across our region Thursday night
before exiting the picture Friday.

Concerns for our forecast area are the prefrontal conditions
Thursday and the storms which get generated along the front
Thursday afternoon. Prefrontal conditions will be overly breezy
by June standards. 85H winds are forecast between 30-40kts
which, if mixed to the surface, will result in windy conditions
with surface gusts of 30 mph. These conditions alone will make
for a day of chasing patio furniture, and especially those with
umbrellas left open and exposed to the wind. The breezy
conditions will also couple with what is expected to be a very
warm day (assuming clouds do not mute the numbers)...highs into
the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains and the ongoing
extreme drought, creating higher fire danger and the need to
refrain from any open air burning. As for the storms associated
with the front, expectation is for scattered strong to severe
storms, developing mid afternoon and traversing the forecast
area from west to east during the late afternoon and evening.
Deep layer shear along the front will allow for organized storm
clusters and line segments with potential for damaging winds.

As for the remnants of T.S. Arthur the crux of the influence
from this feature is expected to remain south of our region.
However, the increase in moisture over the southeast states
with dewpoints trending back close to 70 across our piedmont may
enhance some of the rainfall rates associated with the storms
along the front Thursday evening and potentially delay any
clearing of cloud cover until Friday.

In summary, a call to action...
1. Secure patio furniture and lower canopies and umbrellas
2. Prep for power outages
3. No open air burning
4. Have a way to receive warnings
5. Watch the sky and take shelter if a storm approaches or a
warning is issued.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weekend but more storm chances early next
week.

High pressure follows the front Saturday into Sunday. Models
agree on a broad trough over the Great Lakes into the mid-MS
Valley heading into Monday swinging through the mountains early
next week. This feature with the front and good moisture
advection should provide another opportunity for showers and
storms, but like previous systems, fronts that come from the
northwest favor the mountains (esp western slopes) for rainfall
and to a much lesser extent east of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon. A
few spots across the mountains are experiencing some localized MFVR
ceilings, but ceilings are expected to lift throughout the
afternoon. Winds will generally remain south to southwest this
afternoon at 5 to 10 kts with some gusts nearing 20 kts.

Through the overnight, VFR conditions are expected to continue, with
surface winds decreasing. However, an increasing southwest low level
jet will help yield some low level wind shear across mainly this
mountains overnight.

For Thursday through mid-day, showers and storms will progress into
the region from northwest to southeast, reaching a line from
approximately KTNB-KHSP by the conclusion of the valid TAF period,
18Z/2PM EDT. While mos of the region will be VFR, within the
clusters of heavier showers and storms, localized and brief sub-VFR
conditions are expected. Daytime mixing will help yield the
southwest jet aloft mixing to the surface with gusts in the
neighborhood of 25 to 35 kts for most locations from daybreak
through mid-day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Showers and storms will continue progressing southeast across the
region on Thursday afternoon and evening, along with localized and
brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Southwest wind will remain
gusty Thursday afternoon, but then shift northwest behind the cold
front Thursday night.

By Friday, the precipitation is expected to be south of the region,
with VFR conditions being the norm through the bulk of the weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms may return to the mountains
Sunday afternoon.

Other sub-VFR possibilities may be some late night/early morning
mountain valley/river fog during the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...DS