Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS61 KRNK 260549
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
149 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

No significant changes to forecast. Shower and storm chances
today mostly across southern Blue Ridge.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances later today, mainly
for the Southern Blue Ridge. Higher, and more widespread, shower and
storm chances for Thursday and Friday. Drier weather returns for the
weekend.

2) Heat builds back over the region by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Shower and thunderstorm chances later today, mainly
for the Southern Blue Ridge. Higher, and more widespread, shower and
storm chances for Thursday and Friday. Drier weather returns for the
weekend.

As of early this morning, the surface high sits nearly overhead,
allowing for calm winds and mostly clear skies, though some higher
level clouds are moving in from the west, which may hamper some
radiational cooling. Nevertheless, still expecting temperatures to
fall into the 50s for most locations, perhaps even the 40s for some
of the elevated valleys. Burkes Garden, VA is already sitting at
48 degrees at this time.

Through the day, the high will shift offshore into the Atlantic,
allowing for flow to become southerly, and advect more moisture into
the region. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s in the
mountains to mid to upper 80s in the Piedmont, about 5 or so degrees
warmer than yesterday. With some convergence via upslope flow along
the southern Blue Ridge, showers and storms are possible during the
afternoon and evening hours, mostly across northwest NC and into
southern VA. Any precipitation will wind down with the loss of
daytime heating after sunset.

An upper trough deepens over the eastern US by Thursday, with a
surface cold front progged to move through the Mid Atlantic Thursday
into Friday. There remains some uncertainty in the coverage and
timing of showers and storms associated with the frontal passage, as
the timing of the frontal passage itself may not quite coincide with
the strongest heating of the day and thus the greatest instability.
Timing right now looks to be during the overnight hours of Thursday,
as the front still lags across the Midwest Thursday afternoon.
If that scenario pans out, would more likely see scattered terrain
driven showers and storms Thursday given the moderately
unstable airmass, and more widespread showers and storms on
Friday, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge and over
the Carolinas, as the front traverses the area.

After the front moves out of the area by the weekend, surface high
pressure builds back in from the west, bringing a return to drier
weather by Sunday, though some lingering scattered showers and
storms are possible across NC Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat builds back over the region by early next
week.

Surface high pressure and 500mb ridging expanding across the
southeastern states early next week will push temperatures back into
the 80s and 90s. Though subsidence from the upper ridge should
limit any precipitation chances, return flow around the high
will draw more moisture and warmer air from the south into the
region, thus bringing back the hot and muggy conditions typical
of summertime.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and light and variable winds across the area this
early morning. Some fog in the river valleys will develop, with
the highest confidence and lowest vsbys for KLWB, which has
already quickly dropped to 1/2SM. Fog will dissipate shortly
after sunrise with the onset of daytime mixing.

Isolated showers and storms are possible across the southern
Blue Ridge and northwest NC during the afternoon hours today,
but not expecting any to directly impact area terminals at this
time, so have opted to leave any VCTS or TSRA out of the TAFs
for this cycle. KDAN would be the most likely terminal to see
any precipitation today.

Winds will be mostly southerly today, between 5 to 10 knots,
with the occasional gust 15 to 20 knots.

Forecast confidence is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and storms for Thursday and Friday, highest chances in
the mountains on Thursday, and then for most of the area,
especially the Piedmont and Carolinas, on Friday. Lingering
isolated to scattered showers and storms Saturday, with dry
weather returning areawide on Sunday. Outside of showers and
storms and morning fog, conditions are expected to be VFR.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS