Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KRNK 210933
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
433 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes in forecast attm. Watching for two
frontal passeges...one tonight and one Friday...followed by
a major winter storm for the weekend. Tonight`s front will be
weak, producing some light mixed precip across the mountains,
but with little or no temperature change. Friday`s front is
arctic...and will bring a surge of cold air...the front stalling
over the Deep South. The storm this weekend is expected to
develop over Texas and move east along the front producing a
wide swath of heavy wintry precipitation. Some of the latest
models have shown a shift northward in the track of the surface
low.

Conference call conducted by the Weather Prediction Center with
forecast offices from here to the the Rockies suggests this
storm will have a large physical footprint with snow, sleet and
freezing rain forecast across a significant piece of real estate
to impact millions of residents. Winter Storm Watches are in
effect from the Southern Plains to the TN and Lower OH valleys.
Since the crux of this storm for us is still 4 days away, no
formal headlines for the Mid-Atlantic just yet. That said, it is
just a matter of time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Significant winter storm likely to impact our area this weekend,
moderate confidence in precipitation type, followed by brutally
cold temperatures for early next week.

2) Prior to the winter storm, light mixed wintry precipitation
is possible across the mountains tonight. Temperatures moderate
Thursday, then tumble again with the passage of a cold front
Friday...with additional chance for light wintry precipitation.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm likely to impact our area
this weekend, low confidence in precipitation type, followed by
brutally cold temperatures for early next week.

Confidence continues to increase that a large winter storm will
affect the entire area beginning Saturday afternoon through Sunday
night. What continues to be uncertain is the exact track of the
system, as the wave of energy is still located out in the Pacific
Ocean. An aircraft recon mission was performed on Tuesday, which
provided crucial data to enhance the forecast as the storm nears.

For now, snow is expected to be the main precipitation type for most
of our area. For locations along the NC/VA border and south,
confidence is higher in a wintry mix, depending on the exact track
of the system. Moisture continues to trend upwards, which will make
whatever precipitation falls very impactful. One noticeable
change is that the latest model runs have shown a substantial
trend northward with the system, which would indicate more of an
icing event for our area. While this remains a possibility,
more consistency in model runs is needed before changing from
the current forecast of heavy snow. the NBM currently shows a
60-70% chance of 10"+ of snow across most of the area, though
this could change with the aforementioned newest guidance. The
bottom line is to expect the most substantial winter storm for
our area in over 5 years, regardless of P-type.

Behind the system early next week, bitterly cold air will move into
the area, with lows near zero for most of the area. Winds will be
light, but enough to cause wind chills to be -10 to -15 below zero
in the higher elevations. Below freezing temperatures are expected
to last through midweek, which will keep any winter precipitation
that falls from melting, making travel difficult where roads are not
cleared or retreated.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Prior to the winter storm, light mixed wintry
precipitation is possible across the mountains tonight.
Temperatures moderate Thursday, then tumble again with the
passage of a cold front Friday...with additional chance for
light wintry precipitation.

Today and Thursday will feature moderating temperatures. After a
cold start this morning temperatures climb above freezing as
winds become southerly. A weak front is crossing the Ohio Valley
and will cross the mountains tonight. Moisture associated with
this feature will produce clouds across the mountains tonight
with a chance of light rain or snow. QPF is less than a tenth of
an inch, so not much accumulation with respect to the snow is
being forecast. By Thursday, skies partially clear with
temperatures potentially rebounding into the 50s. Thursday
will be the warmest day of the week. For Friday, expecting
increasing clouds ahead of our next front with potential for
some light precipitation in the form of light rain or freezing
rain pending surface temperatures. Attm QPF ranges from a trace
to a few hundredths, so not much of an impact. If there is any
icing it would be in the colder mountain valleys with potential
to effect the Friday morning commute.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through sunset today with increasing
clouds introducing potential for MVFR cigs across the mountains
tonight. In general expecting clear skies until onset of cloud
layers this evening ahead of an approaching front. Winds today
will be calm this morning, then become southerly 6 to 12 kts
this afternoon with gusts up to 22 kts after 1300. The front is
expected to cross the mountains between 00Z-06Z with potential
for light rain or snow early tonight. Amounts are expected to
be light so anticipating minimal vsby restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A brief period of dry weather is expected Thursday, with
another chance for light mixed precipitation and sub-VFR
conditions Friday. Weather conditions deteriorate significantly
for the weekend. A major winter storm is expected to impact the
area with heavy snow. Sleet and freezing rain is possible from
the VA/NC border southward. Regional impacts are expected to be
significant with high probability for 6 inches or more of snow
for all RNK CWA terminals...runways needing to be plowed and
aircraft deiced if flights are permitted. Flight conditions will
be very poor, especially Saturday night and Sunday with moderate
to high confidence of LIFR to IFR conditions. Models are very
much in agreement with the timing of this storm. The track may
be a little wonky which may impact P-type but over all
conditions are expected to suck.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass remains over the area and this will lead to low
humidity this afternoon with minimums of 20 to 30 percent. Near
calm winds this morning will become southerly this afternoon,
increasing by mid afternoon with gusts 15 to 25 mph after 1300.
Combination of wind and low humidity will result in another
good drying day, in spite of the cold conditions.

After today clouds and humidity increase. There is a small
chance for light precip over the mountains tonight. Another
window of opportunity to burn is possible Thursday afternoon,
winds westerly. Temperatures will also be warmer Thursday with
Rh back down close to 25 percent.

For Friday clouds will be on the increase with potential of
light precip...a good day for pile burns. Larger fuels will lag
in spite of shading and increasing humidity.

The weekend is a show stopper for burning. Heavy wintry
precipitation is forecast. There is potential for 1-2 inches of
liquid equivalent precipitation...a drought buster. If it all
falls as snow, it will be measured in feet, not inches. This
will significantly compact fine fuels. And it is not expected to
melt very quickly either...temperatures remaining below
freezing for the remainder of the month.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM