Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

709
FXUS61 KRNK 120055
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
755 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes during this update.


Temperatures warm above freezing during the daytime and drop
back below freezing each night through Monday night. There is
better consensus on the timing and precipitation types for the
weekend system. Moderate rainfall is expected over the entire
area, moving from west to east Saturday night through Monday
morning. Some snow or light freezing drizzle could still mix in
for higher elevation areas in southeast WV early Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Modest post-frontal wind gusts will make the area breezy
through Thursday. Sub-freezing temperatures return each night
through Friday night, and roads will have icy spots each
morning.

2) Low pressure system arrives late in the weekend to bring
widespread precipitation to the area on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Modest post-frontal wind gusts will make the area
breezy through Thursday evening. Sub-freezing temperatures
return each night through Friday night, and roads will have icy
spots each morning.

Skies had cleared across much of the area, the exception was
upslope moisture over West Virginia. Expect this cloudiness to
remain over southeastern West Virginia through mid morning
Thursday, accompanied by a few snow and rain showers for the
Greenbrier Valley overnight. Parts of northern Greenbrier County
may be around half an inch or so. Winds were also picking up
behind a departing cold front.

Behind the front, winds are gusting around 15 to 30 mph, with
gusts to 30 to 40 mph on the ridgelines. These gusts may
decrease slightly tonight but will increase again tomorrow into
Thursday evening, but should remain below advisory criteria.
Temperatures had warmed into the mid 50s to even mid 60s (65F in
Danville) briefly this afternoon before cooler air filtered in
behind the front.

Temperatures drop below freezing again tonight, but it won`t be
the bitter cold of last week. Melting continues each day, with
refreezing occurring each night through the end of the week.
Even on the weekend, parts of SE WV may see borderline freezing
temperatures at night, while the remainder of the area warms up.
This will mean roads will continue to have dangerous icy
patches each morning.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure system arrives late in the weekend
to bring widespread precipitation to the area on Sunday.

A southern stream system 500mb trough deepens as it moves from
the south central US to the southeast over the weekend. The
associated low pressure system follows a similar track, and
model guidance is coming into better agreement that the low will
move across the Carolinas Sunday and into Monday. However,
several of ensemble members still show a track into the Ohio
Valley and some show a track directly over the central
Appalachians, so there is still some uncertainty in exactly
where this system will go, but confidence continues to be high
in a widespread precipitation event for the area.

A surface high will be situated to the east of the area by the
time the low arrives, leading to a wedge pattern for the
mountains. This location isn`t very favorable for a strong CAD
scenario, with the high to east and thus warmer air in place,
not very strong northeasterly flow and cold air advection. All
this to say that the potential for any wintry, frozen
precipitation has trended down, and this continues to look more
like a rain event. However, the higher elevations could see a
rain/snow mix during Sunday night as temperatures start to drop
below freezing. The Greenbrier Valley could also see a brief
period of freezing drizzle at the onset, as surface temperatures
will be below freezing Sunday morning and the atmosphere
saturates at the mid levels initially and then downward. This
will quickly transition to all rain as temperatures start to
warm.

Southwesterly flow will help to advect moisture northward ahead
of this system, so expecting there to be plentiful moisture
available. Will probably see some drizzle or light rain late
Saturday night or Sunday morning, as the atmosphere saturates
from the top down. The heaviest precipitation looks to arrive
during the day Sunday, then tapering off late Sunday night/early
Monday morning. There is at least 50% probability across the
area of at least 0.50" of precipitation through Monday morning,
35% to 55% of at least an inch of precipitation. The highest
probs are over the southern Blue Ridge and NC foothills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will generally be VFR across the TAF sites through
Thursday afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible at
BLF and LWB early Thursday morning. There is a possibility of
snow and/or rain showers overnight, but mainly north of any TAF
sites.

Winds remain elevated overnight in the 20kt range. Northwest
wind gusts to around 20-30 kts, with even higher gusts on the
ridgelines, continue on Thursday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect periods of mid and highs clouds as well as VFR conditions
Thursday night through Saturday. By Saturday night, clouds will
begin to thicken and lower to MVFR ahead of our next weather
system. Through early Monday morning, expect conditions as low
as LIFR as rain spreads west to east across the area. We may
see snow or brief freezing rain conditions early Sunday in the
Greenbrier Valley, mainly north of BLF and LWB. Rainfall
amounts looks to moderate to high for this time of year, and
will range from three-quarters of an inch in WV, to over an
inch in NW NC. Precipitation moves east of the area Sunday night
into Monday morning, with lingering stratus in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...BMG/SH