Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

854
FXUS61 KRNK 102327
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
627 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening Update: With no rain across the southern Ohio Valley
and eastern Tennessee, delay rain arrival across SE WV and
extreme SW VA until after 10 PM. Aviation also update below.

Afternoon Package: The weekend system looks warmer, and we
should see primarily rain, with snow mixing in for the highest
elevations and perhaps the Shenandoah Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Passage of a cold front will bring light rain and snow late
tonight into Wednesday, along with gusty winds. Temperatures
return to near normal for the rest of the week behind the front.


2. A system will bring mainly rain on Saturday night through
Monday morning. This along with the moisture from snowmelt
earlier in the week will make for plenty of mud. Snow may mix in
for the higher terrain and the Shenandoah Valley, but impacts
will be relatively low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Passage of a cold front will bring light rain and
snow late tonight into Wednesday, along with gusty winds.
Temperatures return to near normal for the rest of the week behind
the front.

A low pressure system currently analyzed over the Great Lakes, with
an attendant cold front from the Midwest into the southern
Plains will continue to trek eastward through today, the cold
front crossing the area tonight into tomorrow. Warm air
advection ahead of the front will boost temperatures well into
the 50s today, low to mid 50s in the west, and upper 50s to low
60s in the east. Combined with the mostly clear skies and
plenty of sunshine, expect significant melting to occur across
the area, especially in the Piedmont, where current snow depth
is only an inch or two.

Light rain will accompany the cold front, highest chances for the
mountains and in the NC Piedmont. Rain looks to reach southeast WV
before midnight tonight, then spreading to southwest VA and
northwest NC, with slight chances for rain reaching the NC Piedmont
by daybreak tomorrow. Flow turns northwesterly behind the
front, and upslope snow showers will linger into tomorrow
afternoon for the Greenbrier Valley. Downsloping and drying
winds will help to quickly clear out the clouds from east of the
Blue Ridge.

A tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and
incoming low will also lead to increasingly gusty winds, especially
for the mountains tomorrow afternoon, in the 30 to 40 mph range,
but below advisory criteria at this time. An 850mb jet also
crosses the area tonight associated with a weak shortwave,
ahead of the main upper trough, so will see some gusty winds
over the ridges in northwest NC this afternoon, up to 35 mph or
so.


Key Message 2: A system will bring mainly rain on Saturday night through
Monday morning. This along with the moisture from snowmelt
earlier in the week will make for plenty of mud. Snow may mix in
for the higher terrain and the Shenandoah Valley, but impacts
will be relatively low.

On Saturday, increasing positive vorticity advection will cross the
forecast area in strengthening westerly flow. An upper low over TX
will begin to close off as it moves towards GA/FL. An elevated warm
front enters NW NC and SW VA from the SW during the day, with
precipitation spreading east and north gradually. While the main low
pressure system stays over the Gulf Coast states, the aforementioned
elevated warm front and an inverted trough will spread precip
over the entire region by Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure wedging in the northeast may act to suppress or slow
precipitation development in the Shenandoah region initially.
Isentropic lift begins to shift south again by late Sunday into
Monday morning, bringing an end to most precipitation.

As far as p-type, warm cloud depths look to extend to 5kft during
the day, meaning a mostly rain event. Areas where the wedge lingers
as well as elevated mountain locations will see snow mixing in
Sunday and Sunday night. We may also see some freezing drizzle in
the Greenbrier Valley early Sunday morning, before the dendritic
growth zone becomes saturated. At this time, the 50th percentile for
48 hour QPF amounts are about three-quarters of an inch in SW WV,
and closer to an inch or more in SW VA and NW NC. If any locations
remain all snow, we could see an inch or two of snow for the
mountains before warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday melt it.
This along with the moisture from snowmelt early in the week will
make for a muddy time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The region is currently experiencing mostly VFR conditions,
though scattered to broken clouds have begun to settle into the
mountains this evening. Expect cloud cover to thicken and rain
showers to gradually fill in, leading to MVFR ceilings at all
terminals west of the Blue Ridge by approximately 10 PM (03Z
Wednesday). Conditions will likely deteriorate further overnight
for Lewisburg and Bluefield as a cold front arrives, bringing
lowering ceilings alongside the rainfall. While Roanoke,
Lynchburg, and Danville are expected to maintain VFR status,
these eastern sites will see broken to overcast skies through
mid-morning Wednesday. By late morning, dry downsloping winds
will assist in clearing the cloud cover quickly.

Aviation safety will be a primary concern overnight as a
westerly 850mb jet crosses the area. This will create
significant low-level wind shear of 35 to 45 knots for the
western terminals and Danville. Following the passage of the
front, gusty northwesterly winds between 20 to 30 knots will
develop along and west of the Blue Ridge and persist through
much of Wednesday afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions also
possible at Lynchburg and Danville with peak gusts up to 25 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mid and high clouds will begin to move into the region during
the day Thursday and into Thursday night ahead of our next
weather system. Despite the increasing cloud cover, mostly VFR
conditions are expected to prevail across the area, with the
notable exception of lower stratus clouds likely lingering near
Bluefield and Lewisburg. By Friday, conditions are forecast to
deteriorate to sub-VFR as rain and snow chances develop,
primarily focused along and south of a line stretching from
Bluefield to Roanoke and Danville. Precipitation chances are
expected to increase further as we head into the weekend,
bringing a higher likelihood of persistent sub-VFR ceilings and
visibilities for the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/SH
AVIATION...RCS