Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS61 KRNK 281755
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
155 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Maintaining a fire weather section for those concerned with
burning conditions.

Cloud forecast remains on track. Updated AVN forecast to
account for IFR conditions across the piedmont this morning.

Models still on track for low level clouds moving from I-95
corridor into the Piedmont and Blue Ridge from the east this
morning while upper level clouds overspread the western CWA from
the west.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Dry weather is forecast through Saturday, trending wet for Sunday
and persisting through the first full week of November. Friday
will be the warmest day of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The next several days will continue to remain rather quiet
weather wise, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure
remaining fixed over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Low
level easterly flow with a long fetch off the Atlantic will
continue to bring in slightly higher dewpoints into the Piedmont
through Thursday morning, which will again lead to some low
clouds developing across the area. These clouds look to
dissipate by the 9-10am timeframe across these locations. The
increased moisture may also lead to fog development across the
area as well, with higher probabilities of this development
expected across mountain locations. Beyond tomorrow, the area
looks to remain dry, with minimal cloud cover expected through
the end of the work week.

By Halloween, upper level clouds look to push into the region
from the next system that looks to move across the conus. This
should bring temperatures back down to near normal values after
Friday`s well above normal forecast high temperatures.
Regardless, dry weather will continue through the end of the
Month, leading to a pleasant trick or treat experience for all
across the region!

Some uncertainty has developed in the forecast with early next
weeks potential rain maker. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep the
region predominantly dry through next Tuesday as high pressure
to our north looks to maintain enough dry air across the region
to prevent precipitation from falling. The ECMWF is the most
bullish with this aggressive high pressure system and weaker
shortwave across the deep south that the area completely stays
dry through much of the next week. Current ensemble spread
between both the GEFS and EPS have the area receiving less than
0.25 inches of rainfall areawide from this early week system.
Expect rain chances to remain low for this system for now as
models come into better agreement.

By the end of next week, there appears to be decent ensemble
support in the GEFS and EPS ensembles for an amplified upper
level trough digging south into the Gulf states before lifting
to the northeast through the region by the Thursday/Friday
timeframe. Timing and specifics on this system are still unknown
at this time; however, widespread rainfall will certainly be on
tap for the end of next week as this system approaches.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cirrus will impact the region through this early this evening,
with clear air already entering into the western tip of VA
this afternoon.

Models have backed off on the worst of the stratus for tonight,
and it appears the strongest easterly flow may hold just west
of KLYH and KDAN. We will see low clouds, but may not be much
LIFR/IFR. Some models indicate MVFR is more likely for the
majority of the TAF sites. If we see a light northerly flow
near KLYH and KDAN this scenario should hold. Also should see
some patchy fog, but again may not be less than MVFR except
perhaps at KLWB. Restrictions should clear by 13-15Z with light
winds tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday is expected to be VFR with little or no cloud cover.
Clouds increase over the weekend trending sub-VFR Sunday into
Monday as a storm system moves from west to east across the
region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with
near to above normal temperatures.  The next appreciable
chance for rainfall looks to be Sunday with additional
opportunities for rain during the first week of November.

With respect to the next few days, today will feature
variable amounts of cloud cover, stable conditions with
poor mixing. Thursday will be similar, but improving during
the afternoon. Friday is expected to the most favorable
with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming
10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont
may reach 80 degrees.

Transport winds will be from an easterly direction today
and near calm Thursday. Friday will be the best day for
ventilation and mixing, transport winds from the northwest.

Pattern change will bring above normal chance for rainfall
November 1-7.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...PM