Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

445
FXUS61 KRNK 291908 CCA
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push off the Atlantic coast tonight. A quick
moving system follows tonight with some wintry weather at the
onset, mainly freezing rain, that chances to rain Sunday. High
pressure passes across the region on Monday. Low pressure moving
across the Southeast will bring the next chance for a wintry
mix during Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Added Buckingham, Appomattox and Campbell including Lynchburg
to the Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight-Sunday morning

2) Mainly a light icing event that is quick moving, changing to
rain Sunday.

Will see increasing high clouds this evening and question will
be how cold it gets before the clouds lower and blanket the
area. Forecast soundings indicate very dry airmass, so precip
likely to be somewhat delayed til pre-dawn in the west. This
will be a quick winter event and not much precip, but given how
cold its been, it only takes a trace of ice to cause travel
issues. The high retreats offshore Sunday morning followed by a
cold front which will turn winds back to the southwest changing
any wintry precip to rain Sunday morning. Some sleet/snow at the
onset also expected, but not a lot, no more than a tenth of an
inch or so.

Rain will taper off Sunday afternoon as the front heads toward
the coast.

Temperatures tonight to drop into the mid 20s to around 30, then
rise into the 40s Sunday.

Forecast confidence is high on some light icing, but lower on
snow/sleet. Some areas in the advisory like the Mountain Empire
may not see any icing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1232 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Wintry Weather returns Monday night.

Another round of winter weather is likely by Monday night. While a
mid-level trough moves eastward from the upper Mid-West, a surface
low in the southern United States gets dragged northeastward by it
and creates a battlefield of temperatures between the two. The 540
thickness line will be across our region late Monday night into
Tuesday. While specifics are still being ironed out, confidence is
increasing in freezing rain as the dominant precipitation type. The
surface low will bring in warm and moist air from the south, but
cold air damming means surface temperatures are likely to be
around or below freezing Monday night into Tuesday morning. The
freezing rain will most likely be for areas west of the Blue
Ridge, but currently cannot be ruled out east of the Blue Ridge.
Total ice accumulations are also likely to be between
0.05-0.20". Snow may be mixed in with the freezing rain for the
West Virginia counties but Western Greenbrier may be the only
location to see accumulation of 1-2". The freezing rain will
transition to just rain as temperatures break above freezing
Tuesday afternoon before the system moves out of the area by
Tuesday evening. Total rainfall amounts are difficult to project
considering much is dependent on how much falls as snow or ice.
This system will be closely monitored in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Wintry mix possible early Friday, and into Saturday.

2. Dry Wednesday and Thursday.

3. Below normal temperatures through the period.

The long term forecast period starts with a period of dry and quiet
weather on Wednesday and Thursday, with high pressure at the surface
following the frontal passage on Tuesday. A cold front looks to dive
south from Canada into the northern Mid Atlantic, with a reinforcing
shot of cooler air to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This may bring
some upslope snow showers to parts of southeast WV, but confidence
is low given the relative lack of moisture. Most likely would
just be snow flurries. A low pressure system develops along the
Gulf coast late in the work week, as a surface high tracks
eastward across New England. The low will bring a surge of
moisture northward from the Gulf, reaching the area around
Friday morning. This could result more wintry precipitation for
the area during the Friday morning commute and Saturday
morning. The primary precipitation type will depend on how long
the cold air lingers while the moisture moves in, but there does
look to be a change over to mainly rain by Friday afternoon.
That being said, still a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of
the low and upper level pattern, which all plays a role in the
precip type.

High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the west,
and mid to upper 40s in the east. With lighter winds overnight,
temperatures will fall into the 20s for most, but then rise into the
low 30s by Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will persist through at least 06z, and even
longer east of the mountains. Just some high clouds this
afternoon, but with increasing and lowering clouds thereafter.
Ceilings may approach MVFR at BLF/LWB by 09z Sunday with light
wintry mix. Light wintry weather expected at all but DAN Sunday
morning before changing to rain before 18z. Cigs will lower to
MVFR, but could vary from 2-4kft at times. Vsbys overall will be
VFR but cannot rule out small periods of MVFR especially
BLF/LWB. Winds stay light and turn more southeast later today.
A few gusts to 20kts possible tonight at BLF.

Low level winds increase Sunday morning, and with inversion at
the surface very well could have some wind shear issues around
12z in the mountains.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect MVFR, possibly IFR from ROA west Monday, with VFR east.
Most sites except possibly BLF return to VFR Monday evening,
with VFR for all Monday morning. Another system arrives with
more wintry weather Monday night so expect sub-VFR cigs/vsbys
late Monday night into Tuesday. Return to VFR for most by
Wednesday-Thursday, slower at BLF Wed.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EST Sunday for
     VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Sunday for
     VAZ045>047.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EST Sunday for
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EST Sunday for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NF/WP