Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

941
FXUS61 KRNK 090712
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
312 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast updated.

Forecast discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather continues into the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather continues into the week.

Diurnal thunderstorm activity to continue into this week as warm and
moist conditions remain the area. A mid-level low over Tennessee
will send some vorticity to the region this afternoon, though
the spatial coverage of rain looks to be mostly confined in the
mountains of northwest North Carolina and far southwestern
Virginia. This area may also have some isolated wet microbursts
within the storms and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Marginal Risk of Severe Weather due to this hazard. Because
PWATs continue to be around 1.50-2.00" in North Carolina and the
Piedmont, there still remains an excessive rainfall risk for
this part of the Mid-Atlantic for today.

Monday was the most frustrating part of the forecast as CAMs had
disagreement on the precipitation chances. Much of the discrepancy
was due to uncertainty on how long the vorticity from the low to our
southwest would reside in VA/NC and how early an approaching line of
thunderstorms would approach from the northwest. Precipitation
chances remain low due to this uncertainty, but these values may
shoot up if future model guidance come into better agreement.

Regardless on how today and Monday play out, what is clear is a
ridge weakening over the southwestern CONUS and another ridge over
the southeast/Bermuda moving to the south. With a mid-level
cutoff low over Canada to our north, the troughs and shortwaves
that orbit it will likely migrate just southward to intercept
our area. The arrival of several waves for the latter half of
the week means more additional chances of thunderstorms, some
which may be severe thanks to some addition of wind shear. Of
particular note is a few low level jets may also accompany these
waves and bring wind gusts of 25-40 mph along and west of the
Blue Ridge. Specifics on hazards regarding winds, severe, and
flooding will be narrowed down as we head into the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A relatively quieter weather period for the next 24 hours.
Early morning fog is likely again but may only impact KBCB,
KLWB, and KBLF. An approaching system from Ohio may reach parts
of southeastern WV later this morning but it looks to rain out
before impacting KLWB. Similar to previous days, once the sun
rises the fog will dissipate and there will be another round of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Spatial
coverage is limited, however, and there is a possibility that
no airport will be effected. Confidence on this is low since the
showers will still be scattered in nature, but the most likely
area they will form will be in the northwest mountains of NC and
in far southwest VA.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Monday looks to be another relatively quiet day with limited
thunderstorm activity, though early morning fog will likely occur
again for the usual suspects. The rest of the week looks to have a
higher frequency and coverage of thunderstorms with some possible
severe weather involved. The specific hazards are still being ironed
out but low level jets accompanying some of the mid-level waves may
result in gusty winds along and west of the Blue Ridge. Needless to
say, consistent VFR skies are probably not coming back for a while.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWAT values are expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range.
High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall
rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban areas and
along mountainous terrain will be particularly susceptible to
flash flooding, especially if storms repeatedly train over the
same locations.

Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across
the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits
across the Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
HYDROLOGY...BMG/CG