Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS61 KRNK 021014
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
614 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation update.

Forecast remains on track for scattered showers and storms in
the mountains today, with cooler temps, followed by a warming
trend and dry weather for the rest of the week. Next chance for
precipitation will come late in the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms in the mountains
this afternoon. Dry weather with warming temperatures through
the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms in the mountains
this afternoon. Dry weather with warming temperatures through
the rest of the week.

A 500mb trough will sharpen over the northeastern US, extending
into the Mid Atlantic through today, while a surface low
develops along a front draped across the southeastern states. A
weak shortwave rounds through the base of the trough, which
will be enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, the highest chances over the mountains, where
the terrain will provide additional lift. There is some
variation in CAM guidance as to how much coverage of
precipitation there will be today, but most agree that it will
be generally confined to along and west of the I-81 corridor.
With limited moisture, dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s and PWATs
less than an inch, rainfall totals will be light, with a tenth
of an inch being the high end of the range, though most
locations will see nothing to a couple hundredths.

A broad surface high will push south from the Great Lakes
region, and help keep temperatures on the cooler side today,
high temperatures reaching the mid 60s in the mountains to mid
70s in the Piedmont. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to
upper 40s tonight/Wednesday morning.

As the high and dry airmass becomes more settled overhead by
Wednesday, upper ridging over the central US and Midwest will
also expand eastward through the week. The ridge does begin to
flatten towards the weekend, as a couple shortwaves move through
the northern stream flow and the trough once over the eastern
seaboard begins to move farther out to sea. Temperatures will
start on a warming trend, and highs will climb back into the 80s
areawide, to low 90s in the Piedmont and Southside by the end
of the work week. High pressure will also keep the weather dry
and quiet for the rest of the week, and dewpoints remain low, so
the heat later in the week will not feel too oppressive. That
being said, the NWS HeatRisk tool does have a Moderate risk of
heat related impacts for Friday through Sunday over the
Piedmont, meaning the heat may affect those sensitive to heat,
especially those without cooling and/or hydration.

The next system that could bring some precipitation to the area
does not arrive until at least Sunday, although model solutions
begin to diverge late in the weekend and early next week with
the evolution of a 500mb trough over the Great Lakes and a front
dropping south towards the area. The surface high shifts
offshore and increasing south to southwesterly return flow will
also bring in additional moisture, which could help spark some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday.
However, the coverage and organization of any convection will be
influenced the trough and surface front, so forecast uncertainty
does increase after Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will
continue for most locations through the TAF period, through
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and
storms are possible in the mountains this afternoon, which could
bring periods of sub-VFR visibility and/or ceilings, and could
bring gusty and erratic winds. Given this chance for showers and
thunderstorms, some VCTS has been included at mountain terminals
except ROA for this afternoon and evening. Overall though,
winds will be light and variable into the early morning hours,
turning more northeasterly in the foothills and Piedmont, but
more easterly in the mountains, through the day today. Any
shower and thunderstorm activity will wane after 00Z Wednesday.
Towards the early morning hours, some river valley fog looks
likely at LWB. This fog may lead to some MVFR to LIFR
restrictions briefly during the early morning hours prior to
sunrise. Any restrictions from valley fog should quickly
dissipate just after sunrise Wednesday morning. All other
terminals look to remain VFR during the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build in by Wednesday morning, keeping dry
and quiet conditions across all terminals for several days. VFR
conditions will persist through at least Saturday, with the only
potential drop in flight conditions being patchy nighttime fog,
mainly for the mountain and river valleys, though the dry
airmass in place could keep fog development limited. Otherwise,
pleasant weather continues and VFR conditions will prevail for
most of the work week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS/EB