Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
756 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated.

Timing of the arrival of precipitation is slightly later.
Storms will begin to develop mid afternoon, right along the
Blue Ridge. However, more scattered coverage of showers/storms
happens tomorrow evening for the mountains, as the front moves
in and stalls over the area.

An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Caswell, Rockingham,
and Stokes Counties in NC through 12AM Thursday due to code
orange for ground level ozone.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues into tomorrow with record-
breaking to near record-breaking heat possible through
tomorrow. Cooler weather is expected late week into Memorial
Day weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the weekend beginning with a cold front tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat
possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into
Memorial Day weekend.

Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through
tomorrow due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic.
500mb heights will continue to remain elevated tomorrow ahead of
the cold front. With the cold front and associated
showers/thunderstorms not expected to reach the area until late
in the afternoon and evening, high temperatures are forecast to
reach the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to
upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. With more scattered cu and
upper level cirrus from showers and thunderstorms, temperatures
are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today.

Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this
heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have
been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated,
limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing
to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat
arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves past the area,
with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder
of the work week and into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region
from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated
surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec
and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some
forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep
layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This
amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in
the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular
clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening
across the region. With these shear and instability values, some
hail and damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out across the
area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
remains in place to account for severe weather potential across
portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary
across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high
pressure looks to push across the Great Lakes region leading to
east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to
some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from
the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at
the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for
severe weather looks to be minimal; however, shower activity
looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day
areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, with
elevated instability on the order of 100-500 J/Kg forecast
between the 700-500mb layer from CAM guidance like the HRRR and
NAMNEST.

Wedging looks to persist on Friday as the surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes looks to slide northeast towards the
Quebec/Ontario border. This will maintain wedging areawide as a
surface low develops across the central Mississippi valley. With
upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure
maintaining dominance over the western Atlantic, continued warm
moist air is expected to be advected north into the region
through the weekend. A warm front associated with the
aforementioned surface low pressure system looks to push north
through the weekend; however, with the high pressure over
eastern Canada forecast to settle into the Northeast by the
weekend, wedging does not look to erode until possibly early
next week. With the aforementioned moisture advecting north
along this wedge, light to moderate rainfall associated with
isentropic lift looks to persist through the holiday weekend and
into early next week. While this may ruin outdoor holiday
weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to
the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural
and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks
to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced
rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding
potential remains very localized.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Area-wide VFR flight conditions continue this evening as high
pressure remains dominant. The few isolated showers/storms that
popped up earlier have now dissipated, and no rain is expected
overnight and through mid-afternoon Wednesday. VFR will persist
at all terminals until then, though fog may briefly form at LWB
between 10-12z. It is not expected to be dense if it does form,
likely only causing MVFR.

For Wednesday, near calm overnight winds increase to around
5-10 knots in the afternoon from the south/southwest. Between
20-21z, scattered storms will begin to develop along the Blue
Ridge and points west, which would bring sub-VFR to any terminal
they impact. Coverage increases near the end of the TAF period
tomorrow evening, though storms will remain scattered as a cold
front pushes into the area. Any storm could be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds, though severe weather
would be isolated to the strongest storms. DAN will remain well
southeast of the convection, keeping VFR through the end of the TAF
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered showers/storms will continue for Wednesday night, with
sub-VFR likely. Only DAN will likely avoid the rain until
Thursday. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through
the end of the week as the front slows down over the Mid
Atlantic, which will lead to periods of sub- VFR at all
terminals each day through the weekend. This typical summertime
pattern with daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will
persist into next week.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a
technical outage due to a major power supply failure.
Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently
unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible for Wednesday. Here are the
current records and our current forecast.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Station Hi Max T         Hi Min T   Forecast High
Roanoke     98 in 1934  70 in 1998      93
Lynchburg   96 in 1941  68 in 1902      94
Danville    97 in 1996  68 in 2018      96
Bluefield   87 in 1996  66 in 1996      83
Blacksburg  90 in 1934  66 in 1893      88

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/JCB
CLIMATE...RCS