Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

958
FXUS61 KRNK 050639
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
239 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Dewpoints were adjusted down slightly areawide to account for
drier air in place over the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather with warming temperatures continue
into Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms
remain late Sunday into early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather with warming temperatures continue
into Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms
remain late Sunday into early next week.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will continue to
remain fixed over the eastern Conus through Saturday this week.
This will keep mostly clear skies and warm/hot temperatures in
place over the region through the weekend, and into early next
week. An upper level shortwave trough looks to eject through
the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which will start to flatten
the 500mb ridge over the eastern Conus starting Sunday. A
surface low looks to track through the Northeast; however, an
east/west orientated trailing cold front looks to sag south
through the Mid-Atlantic states late on Sunday. At this time,
model guidance looks to keep some shower/thunderstorm activity
along this frontal boundary as it pushes south and east;
however, it may arrive into the area overnight Sunday into
Monday morning. Even though that timing is not super
favorable for convective development, models do show anywhere
from 500 to 1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE, and upwards of 900 J/Kg of
DCAPE during Sunday afternoon, and with stronger flow aloft with
the approaching trough, 0-6km bulk shear between 30 to 35
knots, there is potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms.The overall timing of storms arriving into the
area could prevent shower/thunderstorm activity from tapping
into the maximum instability possible Sunday afternoon leading
to slightly reduced coverage than was initially forecast several
days ago.

The aforementioned frontal boundary looks to lay out across
VA/NC by Monday, which will help keep some surface forcing in
place across the region through the middle of next week. Return
flow out of the southwest at the surface, and aloft will usher
in tropical moisture ahead of this frontal boundary that looks
to remain in the region through much of next week. The GEFS look
to have average PWATS in the 1.5-1.85 inch range areawide beyond
Monday, meanwhile the ECMWF ensembles have slightly lower PWATS
in the 1-1.4 inch range areawide beyond Monday. If the GEFS
range of PWATs occurs, daily shower and thunderstorm activity
is likely to occur; however, if the ECMWF ensembles values for
PWATs occur, coverage might be slightly more limited.

This model uncertainty is due to the development of a wedge of
high pressure potentially building over the region starting in
the middle of next week. The placement of this high pressure
will determine the overall shower and thunderstorm potential in
the long term forecast. Details will become clearer in the
coming days, but for now, confidence is still low on storm
coverage.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the current TAF
period, except the small potential for MVFR/IFR fog at LWB
around 10-12z Fri. Current satellite imagery showers upper
level clouds moving over the region, which may inhibit any fog
development at LWB this morning.

Winds overall will be light and variable out of the
west/southwest at around 5 knots or less through the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will persist through at least Sunday morning,
outside of possible patchy fog in the river valleys in the
mornings. A front approaches late Sunday to bring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms into Monday, which could
result in some flight restrictions. The potential exists for
daily shower and thunderstorm activity to occur beyond this
frontal passage; however, confidence is low at this time. These
showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions to terminals across the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB