Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

461
FXUS61 KRNK 250537
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1237 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system moves across the area on
Thursday bringing rain chances to most areas north of the North
Carolina and Virginia border. High pressure once again settles
north of the area on Friday leading to calm weather before
another system works its way into region by Friday night. Colder
air returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and rainy Christmas morning, especially along and west
of the Blue Ridge.

2. Rain amounts highest in SE WV, up to 0.75" to 1.00". Very
little rain expected in the VA Southside.

3. Well above normal temperatures persist.


Clear skies and ample sunshine have allowed temperatures to jump
quickly so far today, after an already very mild overnight
period. Temperatures in the upper 60s are already observed in
the VA Southside and VA/NC Piedmont, and upper 50s to low 60s
along and west of the Blue Ridge. Most of the eastern US is
under fairly strong surface high pressure, though a zonally
oriented front is draped along the VA/NC state line. The low
pressure system will track into the Ohio Valley late tonight,
and the warm front lifting north into the local forecast area
late tonight, advecting moisture northward and bringing rain to
the area after midnight. Upper level shortwave drops south into
the area in the northwesterly flow aloft during the overnight
hours, providing enough support for some areas of heavier rain
and a rumble of thunder or two. Rain amounts have trended up for
locations in southeast WV, now nearing 1.00" in the Greenbrier
Valley. Much of this will depend exactly where the heavier rain
occurs, but confidence is increasing for southeast WV to see at
least 0.75" of rain through Thursday, given what the
deterministic CAMs are showing for QPF. Between one to two
tenths of an inch are possible elsewhere, but probabilities are
near zero for areas south of Danville, VA and east of the Blue
Ridge in NC. The bulk of the rain will occur by daybreak
Christmas morning, though cloudy skies and light rain showers
linger in the west for most of the day.

Strong ridge centered over the Gulf will hold fast through the
period, and temperatures will continue to be well above normal
through Christmas Day. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are
expected again tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:

1. Rain chances return on Friday through Saturday morning.

2. Temperatures fluctuate into the weekend.

A bit of a wonky forecast due to multiple weather patterns messing
with our temperatures and rain chances. After the Christmas system,
cold air damming (CAD) begins thanks to a large high pressure system
centered in Canada. This wedging will cause a noticeable dip in
temperature and a considerable temperatures gradient across the
Appalachian Mountains. As a result, winds may gust between 15 - 25
mph in this area Friday night into Saturday morning.

This wedge will not last long as on Friday, a low level disturbance
will move through the region and bring scattered showers. The
greatest likelihood of rain will be towards the western mountains
but could reach as far as the Piedmont. The cold air damming may be
in place long enough to briefly cause some isolated freezing rain in
the Alleghany Highlands and Shenandoah areas, but confidence in this
is low. Ensemble guidance is placing its bets on rain as the
dominant precipitation type for this event. Total rain amounts will
vary by location but may be between 0.01-0.10" in most places with
isolated areas with up to a quarter of an inch. Rain chances drop by
Saturday evening and possibly pick up again Sunday morning as
another cold front makes its approach from the west.

With the previous systems mentioned, temperatures will be a bit of
a roller coaster. The CAD will result in cooler temperatures in
central VA Friday afternoon than in the Mountain Empire of VA
(lower 40s vs upper 40s and lower 50s, respectively). Counties east
of the Blue Ridge will be a little cooler than those on the west
until the low pressure moves through and highs on Saturday afternoon
will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. By Sunday morning,
temperatures are a little more uniform with lows in the lower to
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Arctic front crosses the area bringing much colder temperatures
and wind.

2. Gusty winds Monday with rain changing to snow in the mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 1...

On Sunday, ridging passes by aloft. A trough crosses the area
beginning Monday night. Troughing remains in place through mid week.
At the surface, a warm front lifts into the region Sunday night,
followed by an Arctic cold front Monday morning. This will lead to a
period of frigid weather for the area.

Temperatures plummet from about 10 degrees or more above normal on
Sunday to 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Monday. Very gusty WNW
winds behind the front along with moderate CAA will result in highs
in the 30s for the mountains, and the 40s for the Piedmont. Wind
chills will struggle into the teens for the mountains, and the 30s
for the Piedmont during the day. Monday night, lows drop into the
teens and low 20s, but it will feel like -10 to +15 degrees
Fahrenheit. While it will be very cold, we will be short of any cold
weather advisory criteria in the Piedmont. However, based on
this, the mountains may be in store for a Cold Weather Advisory
if trends continue. Tuesday will also be extremely cold with
highs in the 20s and 30s, with gusty winds making it feel like
the teens and 20s. Likewise, expect very cold temperatures
Tuesday night, with some moderation Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As far as winds, probabilistic speeds show a chance for wind gusts
in the 40 to 50 mph range on Monday mainly for the southern Blue
Ridge.

Rain and snow is likely with the passing front, with light snow
possible from the Blue Ridge westward through mainly on Monday
morning. Rain look highest for the mountains Sunday night into
Monday, with little for the Piedmont.

Confidence in the long term is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Wednesday...

MVFR ceilings are forecast top develop at KBLF and KLWB over the
next couple of hours as another system reaches the area.
Ceilings will continue to drop to MVFR or lower for all
terminals, except KDAN, by 12Z this morning. Rain will
accompany this system, and could be moderate to heavy at times,
especially for KLWB and KBLF, and visibility restrictions are
possible during those periods. Only light rain is expected for
KLYH and perhaps KDAN, but confidence is lower at KDAN. The bulk
of the precipitation is anticipated between 06Z and 15Z today,
but rain and low clouds will linger longer for the SE WV
terminals, and KBLF and KLWB will likely be sub VFR through the
current TAF period. Could see a return to VFR for KLYH and KDAN
by the end of the TAF period, but is unlikely west of the
Blue Ridge as MVFR to LIFR CIGs remain in place as another
system approaches the area, and cold air wedging settles into
the region.

Winds will remain northwest to westerly today, then turning more
southwest east of the Blue Ridge, and westerly in the mountains
today. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible for KBLF after 12Z,
and low level shear is likely for KLWB between 12Z and 16Z. By
the late evening hours, winds will start to slowly transition to
northeasterly as the aforementioned cold air wedging develops
across the Mid-Atlantic states. These northeast winds look to
remain light at around 5 knots or less; however, gusts up to 13
knots look possible across Piedmont terminals overnight.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An additional system will push into the area Friday and into
Saturday, which looks to continue sub-VFR conditions with more
precipitation through the beginning of the weekend. VFR
conditions look to return briefly on Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/EB
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...EB