Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS61 KRNK 281022
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
622 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.

Areas where minimal rainfall fell on Friday will continue to
lead to a localized threat for increased fire danger today and
on Sunday. Folks are discouraged to burn unless they are a
trained professional. The threat looks to continue into Sunday
as dry air lingers, and gusty winds return by Sunday afternoon
areawide.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool temperatures over the weekend rebound to above normal by
midweek, with mostly quiet weather until late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool temperatures over the weekend rebound to above normal by
midweek, with mostly quiet weather until late next week.

After the FROPA that occurred Friday evening, cold air has quickly
filled into the area. The northerly flow will drive down lows for
this morning into the 20s/30s. Winds will also be quite gusty,
around 20-30+ mph, which will cause wind chills to be in the
teens/20s. While this is nowhere near cold weather criteria, it is a
shock to the system after the recent mild temperatures. Highs for
today will be 10-15 degrees below normal, only in the 40s/50s.
Extremely dry air will also be in place, with dewpoints in the
single digits at times. This will cause some fire weather concerns,
but more can be read about that in the fire weather section.

High pressure dominates the weather pattern through the weekend,
with no rain expected. By Monday into Tuesday, the high shifts
offshore into the Atlantic, allowing temperatures to rebound to
above normal due to the southwesterly flow. This flow will allow for
a few isolated showers/storms in the mountains of WV, but most areas
remain dry. By Tuesday into midweek, highs will reach into the 70s
for the mountains, with low 80s in the Piedmont ahead of the next
cold front that approaches Wednesday night. The system does not look
particularly impressive, but showers will be expected for much of
the late week as the front stalls off to our south with another low
developing off to the west and the associated front moving through
by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

All terminals except for BLF have returned to VFR conditions
this morning. BLF should return to VFR conditions shortly after
12 UTC this morning. With dry air quickly pushing into the
region behind the passage of the earlier cold front, VFR
conditions will remain at all terminals through the remainder of
the period. Winds will also continue to remain gusty out of the
northwest, with gusts of 25-30 knots. These wind gusts are
expected to diminish to around 10-15 knots by 18 UTC at all
terminals. With surface high pressure settling into the region
by Saturday evening, winds look to go nearly calm by the 00-03
UTC timeframe, and are expected to quickly become
southeasterly/southerly by the end of the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions should continue through Monday and into early
next week with high pressure keeping conditions generally dry.
Clouds will begin to increase from the west later next week as a
cold front organizes across the upper Mississippi River Valley
and the Great Lakes. Isolated showers may try to reach southeast
West Virginia during Monday and Tuesday, but the coverage
appears minimal and may not notably impact aviation. The next
significant chance for MVFR ceilings and rain showers appears to
arrive by late Wednesday as the cold front draws closer.

Winds will generally remain out of the southwest during this
period, with gusts increasing to 15-20 knots each afternoon
through Tuesday at all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much of the area received around 0.25 inches of new rainfall
Friday; however, there are some locations that only received
around 0.10 inches or less of new rainfall. These areas will be
the most susceptible to the increased risk for the rapid spread
of wildfires today. With the front now well past the region,
northwest winds have already increased across the area, with
gusts in the 20-30 mph range already being observed. These winds
look to linger through at least the early morning to mid morning
hours before diminishing to the 15-20 mph range this afternoon.
While winds are expected to continue to diminish through the
afternoon and evening, minimum RH values are expected to
continue to fall rapidly through the afternoon hours into the
low 20% range across the entire area. Given these conditions
today, areas that did not receive at least 0.25 inches of new
rainfall have been put under an SPS for increased fire danger.

Sunday, winds look to increase through the afternoon hours to
around 20-25 mph, and minimum RH values are once again expected
to drop into the low to mid 20% range. With dry conditions
expected two days in a row, a more expansive SPS may be needed
for the region Sunday afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions improve by Monday as moisture gets
advected back into the region from the southwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
FIRE WEATHER...EB