Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS61 KRNK 072310
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
710 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Forecast Discussion Updated

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) All eyes on Tropical Storm Isaias.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...All eyes on Tropical Storm Isaias.

Quiet weather will continue for the rest of the work week with a
cold front passing through Thursday to deliver additional dry and
cool temperatures. The main focus of the forecast shifts to Tropical
Storm Isaias which is expected to become a hurricane within the
next 24 hours. Model guidance, both synoptic and AI based, are
in agreement with this system making landfall (exact locations
differ) and heading north into the Deep South. Global models
suggest that Isaias will weaken into a Post-Tropical Storm
Depression by this weekend but may veer sharply eastward towards
the Mid-Atlantic. This is supported by the mid-level weather
pattern which has a jet over the CONUS/Canadian border. By
Saturday night, Isaias will become more of a trough and get
caught in the westerly flow which swings it towards the east
coast. This suggests a mult-iday period of showers for our area.
How much rain we get will depend on the actual path of the
storm but early projections have up to 1 to 3 inches over the
entire event. This is not enough to cause any major flood
concerns but some areas, such as the southern Blue Ridge, may
receive higher amounts from all the southward moving rain from
Isaias. The rain from Isaias may also start as early as Saturday
night and may continue as late as Tuesday morning. The remnants
of Isaias will still have a relatively strong pressure gradient
which may deliver some gusty winds up to 35 mph as it goes
through. Following the previously mentioned cold front, a strong
high pressure system centered over New England will be
entrenched into the mountains prior to Isaias`s arrival. The end
result will be plenty of showers but little to no convection
and the risk of thunderstorms, let alone severe thunderstorms,
is low. This forecast will evolve as Tropical Storm Isaias
strengthens and additional data comes in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies tonight. VFR through the entire period with some
high clouds starting to head into NC/VA by 00z/Fri.

Only issue late tonight to be the usual fog at LWB, perhaps BCB
with LIFR LWB to IFR BCB possible. Front moving in Thursday will
bring winds a bit up to 5 to 12kts from the northwest.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR weather continues with chances of early morning fog until
this weekend when the region will likely be affected by
Isaias. The storm is currently projected to move into the
mainland by Saturday and be just west of us to give each
terminal precipitation. Isaias may then sharply turn eastward
and head straight through the Mid-Atlantic as a trough Monday.
Winds may pick up as a result but it is too early to know the
storm`s exact track and potential impacts to the airports. What
is more likely, however, is rain from the system. The rain will
reduce visibilities at all the airports this weekend and
possibly into Monday and keep cigs at or below VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG/WP