Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS61 KRNK 041959
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
259 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Afternoon aviation update.

High confidence for measurable rainfall tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High confidence for rain tonight then more scattered
in nature Thursday into Friday.

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday, returning
to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High confidence for rain tonight then more scattered
in nature Thursday into Friday.

Low pressure has moved into the Great Lakes with a cold front
trailing south through the OH/TN Valleys. Conveyor belt of
moisture aligned with front will move east and across the
mountains tonight...the front moving into the Piedmont Thursday
before stalling. A secondary wave of low pressure is forecast to
develop along the front Friday providing the Piedmont and
Tidewater areas with some rain before the front moves off the
coast Friday night.

In general, expecting two to five tenths (0.20 to 0.50)
rainfall across the mountains and foothills of the Blue Ridge
tonight before tapering to showers Thursday. Another round of
rain will then develop over the Piedmont late Thursday night
before moving northeast and through the Tidewater of VA/NC
Friday. Rain amounts Friday will be mainly confined to the
Piedmont with model ensembles suggesting little or no rain for
the mountains, one to two tenths (0.10 to 0.20) for LYH/DAN
near Highway 29 and trending upwards to near one inch (0.75 to
1.25) of rain just east of Farmville and South Boston. Once the
front moves off the coast Friday, look for a drying trend this
weekend and into next week.

As far as thunderstorms, models entertain enough instability to
support a rumble of thunder tonight, but nothing severe. Better
support will reside southwest of our CWA over the southern
Appalachians. That said, if deeper convection does enter the
CWA, then look for somewhat higher QPF. Not out of the question
to see 0.75 to 1.50 rainfall where there is more instability
driven activity. Convective allowing models, such as the HRRR,
indicate this potential over the NC High Country with Beech Mtn
through Mtn Empire in VA (including Mount Rogers) having a
chance at exceeding 1.00 inch of QPF tonight. The Weather
Prediction Center has this area highlighted for marginal risk
of excessive rainfall (5% chance that rainfall exceeds flash
flood guidance)...so the potential is justified.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through
Friday, returning to near normal this weekend.

South winds ahead of the approaching front will maintain mild
conditions with above normal temperatures. Clouds will mute the
temperature rise Thursday and Friday, but still favoring mild
conditions due to the elevated dewpoints. Once the front moves
off the coast Friday, cold/dry advection will set in for Friday
night and continue through the weekend. This will promote much
cooler temperatures with reading returning to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR has returned to most terminals this afternoon, as the morning
fog dissipated and cigs have lifted. BLF is now in MVFR as rain
showers begin to move into the area. Expect rain coverage to
increase later this afternoon from west to east as a cold front
approaches the area. Widespread rain will affect all terminals
overnight, with IFR/LIFR cigs expected with the heaviest rainfall.
Fog will also lower VSBY down to 1-3 miles, with LWB down to 1/4
mile after 03z.

Flight conditions remain poor through the night with rain tapering
off after 12z from west to east, though scattered light showers and
drizzle will continue through the morning hours. MVFR will return
for all terminals around 15z as cigs slowly rise through the end of
the TAF period.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR flight restrictions will continue for Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as a cold front lingers across the area. This
will keep rain showers in the forecast through Friday along/east of
the Blue Ridge, with even a few thunderstorms possible at DAN on
Friday. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front as it pushes
east, with gusts up to 20 knots possible on Saturday for all
terminals. Drier weather returns for this weekend, with VFR expected
to continue well into next week with no large systems impacting the
area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...JCB