Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

307
FXUS61 KRNK 242344
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
644 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have occurred since the last issuance.
A winter storm is ongoing and most locations are already seeing
steady snowfall. Some parts of the Piedmont still have negative
dew points, and it is taking longer for top down saturation to
occur and snow to reach the ground, but it will with time.
Winter Storm Warnings remain in place areawide.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected to begin
this afternoon and continue into late Sunday night and early
Monday morning. Significant amounts of wintry precipitation
expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended period of bitterly cold weather all of
next week and into the start of the weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Clipper system to bring light snow to parts
portions of the mountains Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant winter storm is expected to begin
this afternoon and continue into late Sunday night and early
Monday morning.

An impactful winter storm has started to move into the region
from the south and west this afternoon, and is expected to
continue through Monday morning.


Initial precipitation type should be snow for locations north of
the VA/NC border. Along and south of the VA/NC border may have
a brief period of snow, followed by sleet, then followed by a
transition to freezing rain sometime late Sunday morning. Snow,
once it begins, will be heavy at times and will quickly
accumulate on all surfaces. This will result in rapidly
deteriorating conditions tonight. Travel after dark is
discouraged.

Hi-res models give high confidence for a 1 to 2 degree Celsius
700mb warm nose developing over the region from the south
late tonight night and pushing north during Sunday morning
across the region. Guidance now showing this initial 1 to 2
degree Celsius warm nose may grow to a 4 to 6 degree warm nose
by Sunday morning. Widespread sleet likely during this time.
The continued warming aloft will gradually begin to turn the
predominant precipitation type from sleet to freezing rain along
the VA/NC border by late Sunday morning and early Sunday
afternoon. This warm layer will continue to increase and will
result in sleet changing to freezing rain for most of the area
by Sunday evening.

A convectively driven parent low is expected to develop along an
initial cold front across the south in northern Alabama by
Sunday morning. This parent surface low looks to track along the
initial warm front that will be draped across northern Georgia
and eastern Tennessee, before becoming occluded in central West
Virginia late Sunday. Some guidance warms temperatures Sunday
afternoon into the upper 20s to low 30s, but based off the
position and strength of the high across the Northeast, along
with continued precipitation into the cold air mass, diurnal
warming of any kind will be small and currently do not believe
it will warm that significantly. With the tendency for model
bias to erode wedging too quickly/prematurely, have opted to
remain on the colder side of guidance for temperatures on
Sunday.This brief strong warm sector will make easy work of
arctic temperatures west of the CAD wedge in place. The CAD
wedge will however be more fickle in being eroded, with well
below freezing temperatures likely holding on east of the
Appalachian mountains from northern North Carolina and points
north. This will keep mostly sleet and freezing rain across the
area; however, for areas on the west side of the Appalachians
(for example west of the I-77/I-81 interchange in Virginia)
temperatures may rise into the low to mid 30s allowing for the
tail end of precipitation to transition to rain. Locations in
valleys, especially the NRV and points north should retain cold
air, as these locations have historically been more difficult to
scour out cold air with these systems.

The only uncertainty that may arise, which is being hinted in
some CAM guidance, is that a dry slot may form as the southern
surface low starts to transition to the new surface low
developing along the baroclinic zone off the Mid-Atlantic states
coastline. This may perhaps provide a 4 to 6 hour window of
lighter than forecast totals across the area depending on where
the main axis of forcing along the warm front lifts across the
forecast area.

Given the potential aforementioned warm nose developing aloft, NBM
probabilities for snowfall have leveled off across the entire
area, with less than what was forecast this time yesterday. The
highest probabilities still remain along and north of the I64
corridor from Greenbrier County to Rockbridge County, with
probabilities quickly tapering off moving south towards Roanoke
and the New River Valleys.

Given the above, still think sleet will be the predominant
precip type for a while on Sunday, but some guidance now
indicating an earlier transition to freezing rain, especially
across the VA/NC border and south. With the higher confidence of
more freezing rain, have kept ice amounts to 0.4" to 0.75" for
most of North Carolina and southern/SW Virginia, with localized
higher amounts along the crest of the Blue Ridge. This is a
significant amount of ice... downed trees and power lines,
resulting in extended power outages are now becoming more
likely.

Since sleet typically has a liquid equivalent ratio of roughly (2-
1/3-1), we could potentially see additional sleet totals on top of
any snow that falls early on in the event. The snow that does fall
into this extremely cold and dry airmass will be very fluffy and
light, while the sleet that falls on top, combined with freezing
rain, will lead to a heavy crust on top of the previously
fallen snow.

Once the event starts, it will not be safe to travel across area
roadways, as travel will become extremely dangerous to
impossible. Motorists that become stranded, may have to wait
hours in frigid cold temperatures for emergency services to come
to their aid. Again, regardless of snowfall totals, this event
will bring major impacts to travel across the region. Be
prepared for dangerous travel conditions from Saturday
afternoon, through Monday morning.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended period of bitterly cold weather all of next
week and into the start of the weekend.

The center of a broad Arctic low pressure/trough system is expected
to be centered near Ontario/Quebec throughout the week.
Additionally, as the week progresses, associated shortwave troughs
will wrap around the parent low//trough, crossing just north of our
region. Additionally, an area of cold high pressure will work its
way from the plains of Canada early in the week, southeast into
central CONUS by mid-week, then into our region by the start of the
weekend. The combination of a continued general pattern of northwest
flow aloft maintaining cold air advection, along with reinforcing
cold surface temperatures, will keep our area in the ice box.
Finally, surface snowpack from this weekend`s winter storm will
remain in place, helping to maximize net radiational cooling,
especially noticeable at night

While well below normal temperatures are expected through the
entire period. Overnight lows of the single digits or teens will be
common across the region, with the lowest values across the
mountains. Daytime highs for many areas will not exceed freezing. The
exception may be values in the mid-30s for portions of the Piedmont
on a few days.

Currently, the time periods where conditions will feel the coldest
are expected to be Monday night into Tuesday morning, and then again
Thursday night into Friday morning. During both of these time
periods, wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees below zero are
possible across the mountains with values of zero to ten below zero
across the Piedmont. Wind chills other nights will be about ten
degrees higher than these ranges, still on the very cold side.

As we get closer to the time in question, Cold Weather hazard
headlines will likely be issued.



KEY MESSAGE 3: Clipper system to bring light snow to parts portions
of the mountains Wednesday through Thursday.

A quick moving shortwave trough will progress through the Great
Lakes region and into New England Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The southern extent of this feature is expected to cross our region
during this time period an act as source of lift for the development
of snow showers. With the speed of the system, only light
accumulations are expected for parts of the mountains. In the wake
of the system, increased northwest winds will help maintain some
upslope snow showers across portions of Southeast West Virginia
through Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flight conditions are already extremely poor (besides LYH and
DAN) as snow has started to fall around the region, with the
remaining TAF sites seeing IFR or LIFR conditions. As top down
saturation occurs, LYH and DAN will also drop to IFR/LIFR
conditions as well once snow starts in the next hour or two.

Late tonight and into Sunday morning, snow will transition to
sleet and freezing rain, potentially allowing vsbys to improve,
but extreme icing at the surface and above ground will be a huge
problem through Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Poor flying conditions will remain in place pretty much up and
down the east coast and Ohio Valley through sometime Monday.
For our area expect a wintry mix with IFR or lower cigs/vsbys
into Sunday night, then a gradual improvement by Monday as the
system heads east. However, Arctic air and strong northwest
winds will follow and sub-VFR cigs are still possible into
Tuesday across the mountains, with snow showers/flurries.

Winds should start to weaken going into Wednesday. Very cold
conditions will remain through mid-week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/DS/EB/SH
AVIATION...BMG/SH/VFJ