Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS61 KRNK 182019
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
419 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A flood watch has been issued for parts of the forecast
area along stalled outflow boundary.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight.
A chance for thunderstorms. Localized flooding possible. Wind
threat wanes after sunset.

2) Dry weekend followed by more chances for showers/storms
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered to numerous showers are expected
through tonight. A chance for thunderstorms. Localized flooding
possible. Wind threat wanes after sunset.

Outflow from morning storms is now running west to east
along and just south of the NC/VA border. Highest confidence
for rain will be along this boundary this evening with potential
for enhanced rainfall tonight along this same boundary as the
remnants of a tropical low passes by to our south. Actual
passage of the surface cold front, which is still to our
northwest, will likely be delayed until late tonight or early
Friday.

Seasonally strong mid-level westerly winds still exist across
the northern Mid-Atlantic courtesy of an anomalously strong
upper trough moving across Ontario into New England. This fast
wind flow will make for fast moving storm cell movement through
this evening. Stronger storms may continue to produce isolated
damaging wind gusts until loss of mixing after sunset, but the
overall severe wind threat seems to be waning now that the upper
winds have become parallel to the surface boundary.

Main concern at this point will be training of showers and
storms along existing boundary with potential for localized
flooding overnight. A northward surge of tropical moisture is
expected as the remnants of TS Arthur moves across the southeast
states. This is expected to enhance the rainfall rates along
the existing boundary over or near our forecast area with the
southern CWA being the favored area for moderate to heavy rain
late tonight and early Friday. Rain amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 are
expected within the watch area with localized amounts of 2 to 3
inches but these higher amounts falling in a short period of
time. This may result in poor drainage flooding or flash
flooding of small streams, but it would take a lot more than 3
inches to cause any issues on the larger streams or rivers, so
little or no concern for the rivers.

The actual surface front over the Ohio valley arrives late this
evening, crossing the highlands and far western CWA around
midnight or shortly thereafter. Chose to end the flood watch in
the west by 2AM per drying that should take place on the back
side of the front. The front is expected to clear the southeast
part of the CWA (piedmont counties) by 10AM Friday, leading to a
drying trend for the piedmont by midday Friday with clearing
skies for the entire CWA for Friday afternoon leading into the
weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weekend but more storm chances early next
week.

High pressure follows the front Saturday into Sunday. Models
agree on a broad trough over the Great Lakes into the mid-MS
Valley heading into Monday swinging through the mountains early
next week. This feature with the front and good moisture
advection should provide another opportunity for showers and
storms, but like previous systems, fronts that come from the
northwest favor the mountains (esp western slopes) for rainfall
and to a much lesser extent east of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight.
A chance for thunderstorms. Expect variable cloud layers
through tonight, followed by clearing from northwest to
southeast Friday.

Seasonally strong surface winds are expected until after sunset
with gusts 20-30 kts. Local gusts of 40-50 kts are possible near
thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms may return to the
mountains Sunday afternoon, with increasing chances into Monday
with area of sub-VFR cigs/vsbys expected.

Other sub-VFR possibilities may be some late night/early morning
mountain valley/river fog during the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ007-009>013-015-016.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ032-043-044-058.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ001-002.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ003>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for WVZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM