Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KRNK 151718
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
118 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated forecast per recent guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Significant heat today through Friday however we look to
stay below heat advisory or warning criteria.

2) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant heat today through Friday, however
we look to stay below heat advisory or warning criteria.

Dry upper ridge of high pressure will allow for abnormally hot
conditions this afternoon and another hot day Thursday. Have
adjusted some slightly lower afternoon temps and dewpts given
possible filtering from Canadian smoke aloft and afternoon
mixing. Resultant heat indices should mainly stay under the 105
deg threshold but may still exceed 100 in parts of the Piedmont
and Roanoke Valley so it will still be dangerous for those
outdoors despite not in a heat advisory. Friday looks quite
similar across this area since possible shower and storm relief
should be mainly confined to the mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms return for Friday into the weekend.

The aforementioned ridge dampens and breaks down by Friday allowing
for a return of moisture advecting in from the west and increased
chances for diurnally driven convection mainly across the
mountains. Coverage of showers and storms should increase for
Saturday as an amplified shortwave trough digs into the area. On
the heels of this feature, a frontal boundary is progged to
track SEWD for Sunday and again allow for increased coverage of
convection. For now shear parameters are not impressive though
low level lapse rates could be quite high so some stronger
convection could have enhanced downdraft winds each day. Another
disturbance could increase precip chances early next week
though there is some lack of guidance consensus and thus
uncertainty that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions thru period aside from possible morning fog at
LWB. Mostly clear skies expected with some smoke from wildfires
in Canada/Upper Midwest that may impact visibilities aloft, but
surface visibilities should stay VFR. Winds mainly light VRB or
calm. Some sites could have NW to north winds generally under 5
kts for Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower and storms chances return Friday across the mountains and
become more widespread across the area into the weekend, with
potential sub- VFR or lower conditions. Mountain valley fog/low
stratus will also be possible each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/WP