Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

534
FXUS61 KRNK 031757
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1257 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.

Slight increase in thunderstorm chances Saturday.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wedge slow to erode but will be gone Wednesday.

2) Much above normal to potential record breaking temperatures
by Friday into the weekend.

3) Shower chances are low through Friday then better chance over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wedge erodes, temperatures warm but chance of
rain.

Surface analysis shows wedge still firmly entrenched east of the
mountains, but some breaks in the overcast starting to show up
in the mountains. Forecast is tricky as with nightfall, wedges
usually nag us into the night, so made some adjustments to the
temps/clouds, and may not be cloudy enough across the Alleghanys
into the central VA Piedmont. A warm front should be across this
area this afternoon leading another round of rain to move
through southeast WV into the Shenandoah Valley. Further south
should be mainly dry.

It will be milder tonight than this morning with lows in the
40s, some temps may not move much from today in the Piedmont.

Wedge front shifts further north Wednesday but could wiggle
south toward Lexington to Lynchburg impacting temps/sky cover,
but very uncertain. Slightly lowered highs across that area, but
skies should become mostly sunny elsewhere, with highs in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Record breaking temperatures possible by Friday.

Ridge in the upper levels builds across the southeast by Friday.
Long wave trough and closes low will be situated over the west
around the Great Basin to Baja. Frontal system at the surface
will mainly be focused from the Great Lakes to the
southern/central Plains. This ridge and models are having high
temps by Friday into the lower 80s in the east and 70s west,
with lows in the 50s, feeling more like mid to late May than
early March. Some records could be broken. Warmer temps expected
into the weekend and early next week, but more shower chance
should impact this.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Shower/storm chances increase over the period.

Models keep shower activity fairly scattered/isolated Thursday
into Friday then showing the ridge breaking down somewhat this
weekend with shortwave energy and a front tracking into the
area, as the northern stream trough axis moves toward the Great
Lakes. Model consensus in pretty good agreement but will see
could see it being slower in timing. Currently, forecasting
higher chance of showers/few storms this weekend, then front
weakens and pushes south while upper flow turns more zonal.
Shower chances fall back to more scattered variety early next
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wedge continues to keep areas from BCB/ROA east to DAN/LYH IFR
or lower this afternoon, but should see some gradual improvement
to MVFR by 21z, except keeping LYH IFR til this evening and even
then could be stuck in the lower clouds into Wed morning, so in
general aviation conditions east of a LWB-BCB line will not be
ideal through most of this period due to the wedge. LWB/ROA/LYH
could also see some showers this afternoon along the warm front,
so vsbys may drop to MVFR.

Further west, cigs are starting to rise to VFR at BLF/LWB but am
leaning toward sub-VFR back at LWB with the showers this
afternoon. LWB may fluctuate between VFR and IFR into Wed
morning, while BLF stays mainly VFR. Have all terminals
improving back to VFR after 14z Wed, except LWB, but confidence
is lower at LYH/DAN/ROA.

Winds should switch more to the southeast to south then
eventually south to southwest through the period, and mainly
under 10kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Should be mainly VFR this period, except better chances for
showers/few storms to bring sub-VFR this weekend, and potential
for fog at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP