Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS61 KRNK 021822
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Discussion updated.

The current Heat Advisory continues today and into tomorrow for
some areas east of the Blue Ridge and into the Southern
Shenandoah Valley.

Upgraded some counties to an Extreme Heat Warning, which is in
effect due to heat index values likely exceeding 110 degrees for
parts of south central Virginia on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Hazardous heat lasts through Sunday.

Key Message 2: A break in the heat and additional chances for
rain return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Hazardous heat lasts through Sunday.

A series of vertically stacked highs over the eastern United
States continue the heat wave today and likely into the weekend.
The center of a large 500mb ridge remains over us and barely
moves for the rest of the week. Heat indices in the mid-90s west
of the Blue Ridge and well over 100 east of the Blue Ridge. The
Heat Advisory for today remains in effect between until 8 PM
and another is in effect tomorrow from 11 AM to 8 PM. A bulge of
relatively higher dew points in the Piedmont will likely result
in heat index values greater than 110 degrees (even in spite of
mixing) and an Extreme Heat Warning has been expanded and now
includes Buckingham, Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte,
Pittsylvania, and Halifax Counties. It is likely that similar
hazards will be in effect Saturday, July 4, and Sunday. The
upper level ridge pattern begins to decay by early next week.
While it will still be hot, temperatures will generally be in
the mid 80s to mid/upper 90s. Tuesday through Thursday
temperatures drop even further into the low 80s to low 90s.

The public is reminded to take this weather very seriously.
Especially since it is a holiday weekend, please make sure you
are safe from heat related illnesses. Drink plenty of water,
limit time outdoors, and know the symptoms of heat exhaustion
and heat stroke. If hiking consider going early in the day.


Key Message 2: Chances for showers and thunderstorms gradually
return tomorrow into next most of next week.

The breakdown of the ridge will allow a series of troughs and
disturbances to make their way to our area and provide multiple
chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons
and evenings. A Marginal Risk of severe weather with damaging
wind gusts is possible Friday into Sunday. Storms will be more
limited tomorrow with little moisture and convection fighting a
lid of hot air. That said, MUCAPE values increase to over 1000
J/kg for parts of SW VA Blue Ridge area and into the NC
mountains. Bulk shear is under 10 knots so expecting mostly weak
single cell/multicell storms, however if instability increases
more than forecast we could see a few stronger storms into the
weekend with the main hazard damaging winds, as well as
excessive rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR expected with perhaps localized valley fog early morning.
Most convection begins tomorrow after 2 PM, so did not include
any SHRA/TSRA in the TAFs for this issuance (18Z).

With high pressure practically overhead, winds will be light
and variable with speeds generally under 5 kts. It will also be
hot during the afternoon creating high density altitude...
conditions leading to longer takeoff rolls, decrease climb rates
and weight restrictions.

Forecast confidence is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow afternoon into
the Independence Day weekend. However, primary flight category
is expected to be VFR with periods of MVFR.

Main hazard will be the heat. Temperatures the next few days
will be hot with afternoon highs 87 to 95 for the mountain
terminals and 95 to 102 for the lower elevation terminals such
as ROA/LYH/DAN. These extreme temperatures will create high
density altitude with aircraft performance similar to taking off
from a higher altitude runway.

Winds the next several days are expected to be light and
variable. Speeds are expected to be below 10 kts for most of
the period. Over the weekend winds become more gusty and trend
WNW for the mountains and southerly for areas east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some maximum and minimum temperature records may be broken this
week. For reference, the records are listed below along with
the year the record occurred.

07/02
Station    Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke    100/1954    74/1970
Lynchburg   99/1898    76/1913
Danville   101/1925    75/1931
Bluefield   95/1954    69/2014
Blacksburg  95/1954    68/1931

07/03
Station   Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke     97/2012    75/1980
Lynchburg   97/2012    74/1903
Danville   100/1955    80/1922
Bluefield   92/1911    72/1998
Blacksburg  95/1954    71/1941

07/04
Station   Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke     99/1999    74/2024
Lynchburg   98/1966    76/1902
Danville    99/1919    74/1999
Bluefield   92/1957    69/2024
Blacksburg  94/1966    78/1949

07/05
Station   Hi Max T  Hi Min T
Roanoke    100/1999    76/2012
Lynchburg   98/2024    75/1900
Danville   103/1919    76/1926
Bluefield   93/1948    71/1969
Blacksburg  94/1930    69/1932

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>046-058-059.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>046-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ047.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ047.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH/CDG
AVIATION...PM/SH
CLIMATE...SH