Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS61 KRNK 022326
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
726 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.

Previous update:

Rainfall chances have increased for Saturday
afternoon across mountain locations where an upper level pre-
frontal trough looks to push through the region ahead of an
approaching cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures through Saturday with daily
chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

2. Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool down early next
week,temperatures returning to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures through Saturday with daily
chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Strong high pressure that has been anchored over Bermuda will
continue to maintain its influence over the southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic states through Saturday. This surface high
pressure in combination with an upper level ridge situated
generally over the same area will maintain well above normal
temperatures during the day and evening for the area. With above
average temperatures and moisture being pushed into the region,
the daily chance for showers and thunderstorms looks possible
each afternoon/evening through Saturday before the arrival of a
cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. The best chances
for these showers and thunderstorms look to remain across
mountain locations, with gusty winds and small hail remaining a
possibility with the strongest storms that develop each
afternoon.

Along with the daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, each
morning will likely have patchy to areas of fog across the
region, especially across mountain valley locations. This fog
should dissipate by the 8-10am timeframe once daytime heating
mixes out the fog.


KEY MESSAGE 2:  Change in weather pattern Sunday with a cool
down early next week,temperatures returning to normal.

A big change to the weather pattern looks to occur across the
region Saturday night into Sunday, with the arrival of a cold
front. This cold front looks to be the last chance for
meaningful rainfall across the region for at least a week after
its passage. Probabilities for much of the area receiving at
least 0.25" of rainfall have stayed relatively the same at
around 90-100% chance, while probabilities have increased
slightly for receiving at least 0.50" of rainfall to around
60-80% for areas west of the Blue Ridge, but around 25-50% for
areas east of the Blue Ridge.

Cooler and drier air looks to advect into the region from the
northwest behind the cold front. This dry air will effectively
end any precipitation chances for several days across the area.
Many locations will see freezing or near freezing temperatures
areawide. With the Piedmont likely seeing near freezing
temperatures and a frost potential, freeze and frost warnings
may be needed in the coming days for these areas given the start
date for the growing season was set to April 5th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the period. Looks like any showers in WV will away
from BLF/LWB by 00z. Could have some fog late tonight though
confidence is low. Models show some low level moisture across
southside VA so kept some potential IFR cigs at DAN after 10z,
become scattered by 14z.

Winds turn more southwesterly by Friday midday with gusts up to
20 knots, especially LYH/DAN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

By the weekend, coverage of showers/storms increases and could
result in MVFR or lower conditions at times. The cold front
should move through Sunday night, coincident with very gusty NW
winds.

Monday should return to VFR except potential sub-VFR cigs linger
in the WV mtns. Tuesday will be VFR with high pressure building.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/WP