Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

578
FXUS61 KRNK 100809
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
309 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Models continue to trend warmer for this weekends system on
Saturday night into Sunday, with temperatures Saturday night
into Sunday morning remaining above freezing for most of the
region. Areas that have the potential to see wintry
precipitation look to remain over higher terrain locations where
temperatures look to remain in the 30s. Some uncertainty still
exists with this system; however, confidence is moderate, and
trending upward that precipitation will predominantly fall as
rain across the region with this system.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Warming trend continues through today, with cooler but still
above-freezing high temperatures for the remainder of the week.
Any melting during the day followed by refreezing at night will
mean black ice in the mornings where water is allowed to pool on
hard surfaces.


2) Light rain and snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, along with gusty winds.

3) Weekend system to bring precipitation, but impacts still unclear
while precipitation type remains a question.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warming trend continues through Tuesday, with
cooler but still above-freezing high temperatures for the
remainder of the week. Any melting during the day followed by
refreezing at night will mean black ice in the mornings.

As upper level ridging builds over the region today,
temperatures will increase into the low to mid 50s west of the
Blue Ridge, and upper 50s to low 60s east of the Blue Ridge.
Have trended temperatures down slightly today as NBM guidance
was trending towards the 75th percentile for highs across the
region. Given widespread snow cover still across the area,
especially for mountain locations, temperatures will likely not
reach these higher values outputted by the NBM. Regardless,
temperatures will likely be the warmest the region has been
since early January across the area today allowing significant
melting of snow cover to occur areawide.

A cold front arriving tonight into Wednesday will bring high
temperatures back down to more seasonal values in the 40s/50s
through the remainder of the work week. This will still allow
for some melting to occur each day, with re- freezing likely
occurring each night as lows fall into the 20s and 30s. This
may lead to some black ice developing where water pools on hard
surfaces from melting during the warmer daytime hours.


Key Message 2: Light rain and snow is possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday, along with gusty winds.

By tonight, a cold front will enter the region from the west,
which will bring rain chances to mountain locations primarily
west of the Blue Ridge. Areas across SE West Virginia and
extreme SW Virginia have the highest rain chances, with
probabilities decreasing the further east towards the edge of
the Blue Ridge. Behind the frontal passage, some upslope snow
showers look possible (mainly for the Greenbrier Valley)
Wednesday night. New snow accumulations look to be less than an
inch of snow for these areas.

Also behind the cold front passage, northwest winds are expected
to increase, with wind gusts up to 25 to 35 mph expected across
mountain locations, and some gusts up to 45 mph possible for
ridgelines and mountain peaks. These winds look to remain below
any headline criteria for the region.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Weekend system to bring precipitation, but impacts still unclear
while precipitation type remains a question.

Deterministic models are much closer in alignment as to the timing
and location of the central low driving our next system. This system
will move out of the southern plains and through the south. The
consensus currently is that the center of the storm will pass
through the Carolinas, leaving us on the north side of an associated
warm front. Temperatures above the surface will be quite warm (at
least by recent standards), with 850mb temps in the 7-10C range.
This environment lends itself to a majority rain event. However, a
high lingering to the northeast attempts to maintain some CAD, which
would bring in potential for wintry mixing close to the Blue Ridge.
An overnight passage would also provide some colder temperatures.
Given that we are still almost a week out from this system`s
arrival, its prudent to be ready for the p-type to be in flux, but
trends are suggesting a tilt towards liquid precip with some frozen
mixed in. This is certainly not a final call on what to expect.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through a majority
of the TAF period, with some MVFR CIGs and VSBYs developing at
BLF and LWB shortly after 00 UTC Wednesday with the approach of
a cold front from the west. All other terminals are expected to
remain VFR through the TAF period, with MVFR restrictions likely
developing at BCB and ROA around the 06 to 09 UTC timeframe
Wednesday. As the cold front pushes across the region Tuesday
evening and through the overnight hours, LLWS of 35 to 45 knots
looks to develop across all terminals as a westerly 850mb jet
streak pushes over the region. Along with LLWS, there will be
some shower activity for BLF, LWB, and BCB this evening through
Wednesday morning.

Winds ahead of the cold front look to remain out of the
southwest at around 5 to 10 knots, with gusts up to 15 to 20
knots through 00 UTC. Beyond 00 UTC, and after the passage of
the cold front, surface winds increase to around 10 to 15 knots
out of the west/northwest with gusts up to 15 to 25 knots, with
mountain terminals likely seeing the higher end, and Piedmont
terminals seeing the lower end of that range.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds turn NW with the passage of a cold front Wednesday,
becoming stronger with gusts to 25 to 35 kts through Thursday
morning. Expect some light rain showers Wednesday morning, with
flurries possible downstream towards BCB and ROA through
midday. All sites should be VFR most of Wednesday, but possible
sub-VFR upslope clouds return to the mountains after Thursday
00Z.

Mid and high clouds move in during the day Thursday and Thursday
night ahead of the next weather maker but we should be mainly
VFR during this time with the exception of lower stratus near
BLF and LWB. By Friday, expect sub-VFR conditions with rain and
snow possible mainly along and south of a line from Bluefield to
Roanoke to Danville. Precipitation chances increase for the
weekend along with increasing chances of sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/VFJ
AVIATION...EB/JCB