Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXUS61 KRNK 271734
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
134 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast updated.

Rainfall amounts increased slightly for the Grayson Highlands
and Mountain Empire regions for the middle of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
Higher chances on Wednesday. Another chance for rain arrives
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the
week. Near freezing temperatures possible for the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
Higher chances on Wednesday. Another chance for rain arrives
Saturday.

A weakening cold front will approach the area from the west by
Tuesday midday, and several CAMs have the shower and
thunderstorm activity breaking up by the time it reaches the
Blue Ridge, as a drier airmass remains in place, so it will take
some time to saturate the atmosphere. That being said, the
mountains have the highest probabilities of rainfall during that
time frame than the Piedmont.

Moisture is expected to increase following that system Tuesday, as a
wave of low pressure develops along a cold front and approaches the
region from the west/southwest, and taps into moisture from the
Gulf. Better upper level dynamical support accompanies this
system, with a shortwave crossing the area and trough deepening
over the Ohio Valley during this time. Strong shear is
associated with the front, and thus there is potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday. However, one limiting
factor on convective development would be how much the
atmosphere can destabilize by the afternoon hours, given broken
to overcast skies and precipitation from the warm front lifting
northward during the morning hours. With sufficient instability,
and some models are showing over 1000 J/kgs of MUCAPE by the
afternoon, there is a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms,
with both damaging winds and hail as the primary threats.

Current rainfall totals Tuesday through Wednesday range from about
half an inch in the Piedmont to an inch in western VA, up to 1.5" in
the Mountain Empire and Grayson Highlands region of VA, which is
slightly higher than previous forecasts. While this will
certainly be beneficial rainfall, it won`t bring an end to the
ongoing severe drought.

Another opportunity for rain comes on Saturday, with another wave of
moisture reaching the area. However, there doesn`t look to be any
significant forcing with this, and the spread in forecast amounts
ranges from zero to two thirds of an inch, between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. Therefore, confidence is low on how much rainfall this
weekend system will produce.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold temperatures arrive for the end of the week.
Near freezing temperatures possible for the mountains.

Behind the frontal passage in the middle of the week, the 500mb
trough deepens over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, allowing much
cooler air to filter into the region. Global deterministic and
ensemble guidance agree on below normal temperatures, possibly near
freezing for portions of the mountains in southeast WV, and places
like Bald Knob, Mount Rogers and Burkes Garden in VA. NBM
probabilities for low temperatures below 35 degrees Friday and
Saturday morning are 40 to 50%. Since the growing season has begun
and we will have recently received the first decent rainfall of
April, this cold air is something to keep an eye on for those with
agricultural interests.

Gusty winds will also follow the front, and though not completely
overlapping with the coolest morning temperatures, it will feel
quite chilly Friday and Saturday morning, but does warm into
the 50s and 60s by the afternoons.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

With a cold front approaching the region from the west Tuesday
morning, showers and thunderstorms look to cause MVFR to IFR
restrictions at all terminals throughout the morning hours from 10
UTC at BLF and LWB to the 12-14 UTC timeframe at BCB, ROA, LYH, and
DAN. These restrictions are mostly anticipated to be due to lowering
CIGs; however, some visibilities may drop to MVFR levels if a
heavier thunderstorm moves in the vicinity of a terminal. The MVFR
to IFR restrictions mentioned above due to lowering CIGs along the
cold front look to linger beyond the TAF period and into Tuesday
night at all terminals.

Winds will generally remain light at around 5-10 knots, with
northeast winds today slowly transition to easterly/southeasterly by
Monday night into Tuesday. While most terminals look to retain light
winds, BLF will likely see gusts of 20-25 knots out of the southeast
through the overnight hours from 00-12 UTC.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Flight restrictions look to linger through Wednesday as an
additional low pressure system moves just north of the area. This
will bring an additional round of shower and thunderstorm chances to
the region before a cold front passes through the area late
Wednesday night. Winds will generally remain out of the southeast
ahead of this frontal passage Wednesday night; however, behind the
front, winds look to turn out of the west/northwest. Some upslope
showers and restrictions may linger for BLF and LWB into Thursday
morning; however, these restrictions should lift by Thursday
afternoon. Northwest winds may gust up to 20-25 knots at times for
mountain terminals. VFR conditions look to return late Thursday for
all terminals, and should remain through Friday before additional
chances of rain potentially arrive for this weekend.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...EB