Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS61 KRNK 271904
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
304 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecasts have been updated.

Severe weather threat remains high for Tuesday morning through
Tuesday night.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Severe weather threat remains high for early
Tuesday morning through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Severe weather threat remains high for Tuesday
morning through Tuesday night.

On satellite and radar imagery this afternoon, very strong MCSs
were ongoing over the Great Lakes region into the OH Valley, and
debris clouds were already moving through our forecast area.
Storms in Chicagoland are extremely severe with 100 mph listed
in the warnings, also possibly tornadic. Strong forcing for
ascent was partially coming from an area of strong positive
vorticity advection aloft along with a robust mid/upper level
jet. High resolution guidance continues to indicate that a
variation of this activity will dive SSE tonight and into the
overnight hours, reaching SE WV and SW VA around 2 to 5 AM.

Closer to our neck of the woods and in the lower levels, the
primary area of low pressure will be located over the Delmarva
Peninsula tomorrow, while a lee trough will extend from the low
SSW along the Piedmont. This trough will be out ahead of a cold
front moving through the TN Valley and central and southern
Appalachians. These features will support widespread heavy
rain and strong to severe thunderstorms, which may contain
severe with damaging winds, in the form of one of more bowing
linear MCSs traveling from the OH Valley. CAMs disagree on the
evolution of these features, and it is possible the worst of it
stays mostly to our west. However, areas especially west of a
line from Lewisburg, WV to Martinsville will have the highest
chance for severe weather in the morning hours. MUCAPE right
ahead of the bowing segments of the MCS(s) look to be over 4000
J/kg, and the

As the day progresses, the cold front moves south towards the
region, along with a northward lifting warm front from the
west. Strong short waves will continue to fuel redevelopment in
the afternoon and evening. Severe weather in the afternoon will
depend on how long the morning convection lasts and how much
time the atmosphere has to recover ahead of the front/next upper
level wave. It appears we should have at least a few hours with
breaks in cloud cover before the front arrives in the
afternoon.

The ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails for CAPE/shear continues to
bullseye almost the entire forecast area with abnormally strong
CAPE and shear. Deep layer shear will be around 40 to 50 kts,
which will support supercells with damaging winds and large
hail. The current timing of the boundaries and diving short wave
energy/jet streaks are also around peak heating. Finally, there
will be a tornado threat generally east of a Lynchburg to
Danville line...closer to where the warm front will be in the
afternoon. We continue to be outlooked on Tuesday for a Slight
Risk of severe weather from SPC, and a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall from WPC for flash flooding.

The front and trough axis moves quickly southeast and out of the
forecast area by midnight Tuesday. Upslope flow may bring a few
showers to the mountains overnight, but the severe threat will
be over. Thursday and Friday also look quiet, with a return to
scattered afternoon showers and storms for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather for the first half of TAF period, then strong to
severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will shift into the region,
as a line of strong storms is forecasted to reach KBLF, KLWB,
ROA and KBCB between 8-13Z. Scattered showers and storms with
heavy rain and damaging winds continue into tomorrow afternoon
and evening as a cold front moves through. Wind gusts in general
increase to 20 to 30 knots Monday night into Tuesday.

Winds will generally be light and variable during the overnight
time periods, and northwest to north during the day around 4 to
7 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
TSRA with heavy rain and damaging winds continue into tomorrow
afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. Wind gusts
in general increase to 20 to 30 knots Monday night through late
Wednesday night behind the front. Wednesday through Friday are
forecasted to VFR, outside any morning fog/stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH